Core Insights - Gold prices have reached all-time highs in 2025, driven by economic concerns, job losses, and the trade war, with a year-to-date increase of over 50% and a 20% surge since April [1][4] - The performance of gold has significantly outpaced stock market returns, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rising 15% and 19% respectively [1] - Gold has also outperformed Treasury bonds, which gained about 8% due to Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [2] Economic Context - The rise in gold prices is supported by fears of a potential reckoning in the U.S. economy, despite GDP growth above 3% in the second and third quarters [4] - Job cuts reported by Challenger, Gray and Christmas totaled 946,426 through September, marking a 55% year-over-year increase [5] - The unemployment rate reached 4.3% in August, the highest since 2021, with private data indicating worsening conditions in September [6][7] Market Dynamics - Recent concerns have emerged regarding the sustainability of gold's rally, particularly after a significant drop of over 6% in a single day, leading to a decline of more than 5% over the past five days [3] - The unique nature of gold as a stored asset makes it susceptible to volatile price movements based on economic expectations [3]

Core Viewpoint - German Commercial Bank indicates that U.S. companies may pass on tariff costs to consumers, which will heighten economic concerns and lead to a weaker dollar [1] Group 1 - U.S. companies are likely to transfer tariff costs to consumers [1] - This transfer of costs could exacerbate economic worries [1] - A weaker dollar is anticipated as a consequence of these developments [1]

Market Overview - The US dollar index rose slightly, reaching an intraday high of 98.65 before closing up 0.23% at 98.46 [2] - Spot gold experienced a significant drop of nearly $60, hitting a low around $3340, and ultimately closed down 1.61% at $3342.73 per ounce [2] - Spot silver also declined, closing down 1.85% at $37.60 per ounce [2] Key News - President Trump stated that gold will not be subject to additional tariffs, which contributed to the decline in gold prices [3] - Trump's team is considering Bowman, Jefferson, and Logan as candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair, with an announcement expected this fall [3] - Trump described his meeting with Putin as exploratory, indicating potential future meetings with Zelensky or both Putin and Zelensky [3] Trade Insights - Precious metals prices generally fell, with COMEX gold futures down 2.80% at $3393.7 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 2.33% at $37.645 per ounce [7] - The upcoming meeting between US and Russian leaders is anticipated to reduce geopolitical tensions, which may weaken safe-haven demand for gold [7] - Despite the short-term bearish outlook, concerns over economic data and potential interest rate cuts may provide some upward momentum for gold prices in the future [7] - Key price ranges for COMEX gold are projected between $3400 and $3600 per ounce, while COMEX silver is expected to range between $37 and $40 per ounce [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the oil and gas sector, including China National Petroleum Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, Zhongman Petroleum and Natural Gas, and New Natural Gas [5]. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks and economic concerns are driving significant fluctuations in oil prices, with recent U.S. sanctions on Iran and potential tariffs on countries trading with Russia impacting market sentiment [1][9]. - The report highlights that Russia's oil exports are projected to exceed 4 million barrels per day, with U.S. sanctions potentially disrupting global oil supply [2][10]. - The report notes an increase in the U.S. dollar index and rising oil prices, with Brent crude futures settling at $69.67 per barrel, reflecting a 1.80% increase week-on-week [3][11]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong risk resilience and resource advantages, such as China National Petroleum Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, which are expected to benefit from stable oil prices and high dividend yields [14]. Oil Price Performance - As of August 1, 2025, Brent crude futures closed at $69.67 per barrel, up 1.80% from the previous week, while WTI futures settled at $67.33 per barrel, up 3.33% [38][39]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - U.S. crude oil production increased to 13.31 million barrels per day, while refinery throughput decreased to 16.91 million barrels per day, indicating a mixed supply-demand scenario [11][12]. - The report indicates that U.S. crude oil inventories rose, with strategic reserves at 402.74 million barrels, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 240,000 barrels [13]. Company Performance - The report provides earnings forecasts for key companies, with China National Petroleum Corporation expected to have an EPS of 0.90 yuan in 2024, while China National Offshore Oil Corporation is projected to have an EPS of 2.90 yuan [5].

Group 1 - The sales of condominiums in Toronto and Vancouver are declining despite efforts to increase new housing construction, leading to rising inventory and the cancellation of numerous projects [1][3] - According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), condominium sales in Toronto dropped by 75% from 2022 to Q1 2025, while Vancouver saw a 37% decline, with Toronto's sales down 21.7% year-over-year and inventory exceeding 20,000 units [3][4] - The current housing crisis persists with many properties remaining unsold for months, as potential buyers are hesitant due to concerns about the global economy, despite falling prices and interest rates [4][5] Group 2 - New condominium construction in the Greater Toronto Area has sharply decreased, reaching the lowest level since 1996, as developers struggle to sell enough pre-sale units and secure financing for new projects [5][6] - At least 28 projects, totaling nearly 6,000 units, have been shelved, canceled, or entered bankruptcy since 2024 due to the decline in pre-sale activity [6] - Industry experts predict that the market will eventually recover, but there may be a supply shortage in the future due to the current lack of new housing starts, with CMHC indicating that 3.5 million homes need to be built by 2030 to restore housing affordability [7]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced fluctuations with a bullish outlook despite some short-term adjustments, supported by technical indicators and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1][8][9]. Market Performance - Gold prices opened the week at $3298.53 per ounce, reached a weekly low of $3294.75, and peaked at $3402.97 before closing at $3310.90, marking a weekly increase of $18.97 or 0.58% [1][3]. - The weekly price volatility was $111.04, indicating significant market activity [1]. Influencing Factors - Geopolitical tensions and tariff concerns initially boosted gold prices, but positive U.S. employment data on Friday reduced interest rate cut expectations, leading to a price decline [3][8]. - The market is currently influenced by mixed economic data, with the potential for further adjustments in gold prices due to upcoming inflation data and ongoing trade negotiations [6][8]. Technical Analysis - Gold remains above the 5-10 week moving averages and key support levels, indicating a potential for upward movement if it stabilizes above $3366 [3][11]. - The monthly chart shows a bullish trend despite recent volatility, with expectations for gold to maintain high levels or strengthen further in the coming years [11][9]. Future Outlook - The outlook for gold remains positive, with expectations for prices to reach $3500 or higher, driven by ongoing geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties [5][9]. - The market will closely monitor U.S. inflation data and its impact on interest rates, which could either support or pressure gold prices [6][8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The weak US ISM Services PMI and ADP employment data have led to an increase in expectations of interest rate cuts, causing gold prices to fluctuate upwards. The failure of the US - Iran negotiations and the possible further interest rate cuts by the ECB today still support gold prices. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to around 3.4 yuan/gram. Gold prices will fluctuate today, and investors should pay attention to the ECB's interest rate decision [4]. - Due to the weak US ISM Services PMI and ADP employment data and the increasing expectations of interest rate cuts, silver prices are fluctuating. The failure of the US - Iran negotiations and the possible further interest rate cuts by the ECB today also support silver prices. The premium of Shanghai silver has expanded to around 496 yuan/kg. Silver prices will follow the fluctuations of gold prices [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - The US ISM Services PMI and ADP employment data were weak, increasing expectations of interest rate cuts. The three major US stock indexes closed mixed, European stocks rose for the second consecutive day, the US dollar index fell 0.47% to 98.81, the offshore RMB appreciated significantly to 7.1717, US Treasury yields fell collectively, with the 10 - year Treasury yield dropping 9.85 basis points to 4.355%, and COMEX gold futures rose 0.60% to $3397.40 per ounce [4]. - For silver, the same weak economic data led to increasing expectations of interest rate cuts. COMEX silver futures rose 0.06% to $34.66 per ounce [6]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is - 3.02, with the spot at a discount to the futures (neutral); the gold futures warehouse receipts are 17,247 kilograms, unchanged (bearish); the 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average (neutral); the main net position is long, and the main long position has increased (bullish) [5]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 28, with the spot at a discount to the futures (neutral); the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 1,087,210 kilograms, increasing by 18,364 kilograms day - on - day (neutral); the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average (bullish); the main net position is long, and the main long position has increased (bullish) [6]. 3. Today's Focus - Today, investors should pay attention to China's May Caixin PMI, the ECB's interest rate decision and the governor's speech, the US April trade balance, and speeches by Fed and BoE officials. The weak US economic data has increased expectations of interest rate cuts, and the failure of the US - Iran negotiations and the possible ECB interest rate cuts support gold prices. Gold prices will fluctuate [4]. - Specific events to watch include South Korea's Q1 GDP final value at 07:00, Australia's April goods and services trade balance at 09:30, China's May Caixin Services and Composite PMI at 09:45, the ECB's policy interest rate release at 20:15, etc. [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The fundamental situation is neutral. The weak economic data and increasing interest rate cut expectations have an impact on gold prices, but other factors also need to be considered. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to around 3.4 yuan/gram [4]. - **Silver**: The fundamental situation is also affected by the weak economic data and interest rate cut expectations, and silver prices will follow the fluctuations of gold prices. The premium of Shanghai silver has expanded to around 496 yuan/kg [6]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, and the main long position has increased. The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 3.77% to 203,268 on June 4, 2025, the short position increased by 5.08% to 72,216, and the net position increased by 3.06% to 131,052 [5][30]. - **Silver**: The main net position is long, but the long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 0.16% to 470,538 on June 4, 2025, the short position increased by 1.04% to 336,044, and the net position decreased by 3.04% to 134,494 [6][33].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market showed a briefly macro - positive trend due to news like China - US talks, but concerns about the economy persisted, and the Fed's hawkish stance at night also influenced the market. Overall, the market situation is complex and influenced by multiple factors including domestic policies, international trade, and economic growth expectations [2][4]. 3. Summary by Product PVC - On May 7, PVC prices rose and then fell. In the long - term, PVC faces a supply - demand imbalance with weak demand due to the real - estate downturn and export restrictions, and high supply pressure from new projects and high - profit烧碱 production. Currently, it is mainly influenced by the macro - environment, with low valuation and weak trading. Key factors to watch are tariff negotiations, domestic stimulus policies, exports, and maintenance efforts [2]. 烧碱 - On May 7, the main SH09 contract of caustic soda closed at 2513 yuan/ton (+15). The market supply is abundant, demand has not improved, and prices are trending lower. The overall situation is that supply remains sufficient, demand growth is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. Key points to monitor are Weiqiao's delivery volume, inventory reduction, alumina production start - up, exports, and maintenance scale from June to August [3]. 橡胶 - On May 7, rubber prices rose and then fell. NR in Thailand is expected to start tapping soon and is showing weakness, while RU has some support from stockpiling. If there are no major reversals in domestic policies and tariff issues, the market will be dominated by weak demand and sufficient supply, and may continue to fluctuate weakly in the medium - term. Factors to watch are tariff developments and post - tapping weather [4][6]. 尿素 - The main urea contract rose 0.96% to close at 1886 yuan/ton. Supply is at a historically high level, with a daily output of about 200,000 tons. Demand includes agricultural, industrial, and export - substitution aspects. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, with the 09 contract operating in the 1750 - 1950 yuan/ton range. Key factors to follow are crop sowing progress, export news, and macro - policy changes [7]. 甲醇 - The main methanol contract rose 0.09% to close at 2239 yuan/ton. Supply from inland areas is decreasing due to lower device operating rates, while downstream demand is relatively stable. Inventory shows a differentiation between inland and port areas. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with the operating range of 2200 - 2350 yuan/ton [8]. 塑料 - On May 7, the main plastic contract rose 0.51% to 7046 yuan/ton. In April, due to tariff policies, plastic prices dropped significantly. Supply pressure is increasing with new capacity coming online in the second quarter. Demand is entering the off - season, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. Key factors to monitor are downstream demand, domestic stimulus policies, tariff negotiations, and crude oil price fluctuations [9][10].