石化周报 地缘风险+经济担忧驱动油价宽幅震荡 2025 年 08 月 02 日 ➢ 地缘风险+经济担忧驱动油价宽幅震荡。7 月 14 日，特朗普曾表示，如果俄 罗斯没有在 50 天内同乌克兰达成和平协议，美国将对与俄有贸易的国家征收 100%的"二级制裁性关税"；7 月 28 日特朗普表示将 50 天期限缩短至 10 至 12 天，后于 7 月 29 日表示将期限缩短至 10 天；特朗普还宣布自 8 月 1 日起对 印度商品征收 25%关税，并对其购买俄罗斯石油和武器的行为进行惩罚，同时， 美国官员宣称，若中国持续进口俄罗斯原油，将面临高额关税。受此影响，上半 周油价大幅上涨。此外，7 月 30 日，美国财政部宣布，对伊朗商人穆罕默德·侯 赛因·沙姆哈尼控制的航运网络实施制裁，涉及 50 多个实体和个人以及 50 多艘 运油船和集装箱船；当天，美国国务院也宣布，将参与伊朗石油和石化产品贸易 与运输的 20 个实体列入制裁名单，将 10 艘船只列为冻结资产，这是自 2018 年 美国政府对伊朗"极限施压"以来实施的最大规模制裁。然而，市场依然对经济 前景和 OPEC+增产后造成的供应压力有所担忧，美国 7 月非 ...

Group 1 - The sales of condominiums in Toronto and Vancouver are declining despite efforts to increase new housing construction, leading to rising inventory and the cancellation of numerous projects [1][3] - According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), condominium sales in Toronto dropped by 75% from 2022 to Q1 2025, while Vancouver saw a 37% decline, with Toronto's sales down 21.7% year-over-year and inventory exceeding 20,000 units [3][4] - The current housing crisis persists with many properties remaining unsold for months, as potential buyers are hesitant due to concerns about the global economy, despite falling prices and interest rates [4][5] Group 2 - New condominium construction in the Greater Toronto Area has sharply decreased, reaching the lowest level since 1996, as developers struggle to sell enough pre-sale units and secure financing for new projects [5][6] - At least 28 projects, totaling nearly 6,000 units, have been shelved, canceled, or entered bankruptcy since 2024 due to the decline in pre-sale activity [6] - Industry experts predict that the market will eventually recover, but there may be a supply shortage in the future due to the current lack of new housing starts, with CMHC indicating that 3.5 million homes need to be built by 2030 to restore housing affordability [7]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced fluctuations with a bullish outlook despite some short-term adjustments, supported by technical indicators and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1][8][9]. Market Performance - Gold prices opened the week at $3298.53 per ounce, reached a weekly low of $3294.75, and peaked at $3402.97 before closing at $3310.90, marking a weekly increase of $18.97 or 0.58% [1][3]. - The weekly price volatility was $111.04, indicating significant market activity [1]. Influencing Factors - Geopolitical tensions and tariff concerns initially boosted gold prices, but positive U.S. employment data on Friday reduced interest rate cut expectations, leading to a price decline [3][8]. - The market is currently influenced by mixed economic data, with the potential for further adjustments in gold prices due to upcoming inflation data and ongoing trade negotiations [6][8]. Technical Analysis - Gold remains above the 5-10 week moving averages and key support levels, indicating a potential for upward movement if it stabilizes above $3366 [3][11]. - The monthly chart shows a bullish trend despite recent volatility, with expectations for gold to maintain high levels or strengthen further in the coming years [11][9]. Future Outlook - The outlook for gold remains positive, with expectations for prices to reach $3500 or higher, driven by ongoing geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties [5][9]. - The market will closely monitor U.S. inflation data and its impact on interest rates, which could either support or pressure gold prices [6][8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The weak US ISM Services PMI and ADP employment data have led to an increase in expectations of interest rate cuts, causing gold prices to fluctuate upwards. The failure of the US - Iran negotiations and the possible further interest rate cuts by the ECB today still support gold prices. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to around 3.4 yuan/gram. Gold prices will fluctuate today, and investors should pay attention to the ECB's interest rate decision [4]. - Due to the weak US ISM Services PMI and ADP employment data and the increasing expectations of interest rate cuts, silver prices are fluctuating. The failure of the US - Iran negotiations and the possible further interest rate cuts by the ECB today also support silver prices. The premium of Shanghai silver has expanded to around 496 yuan/kg. Silver prices will follow the fluctuations of gold prices [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - The US ISM Services PMI and ADP employment data were weak, increasing expectations of interest rate cuts. The three major US stock indexes closed mixed, European stocks rose for the second consecutive day, the US dollar index fell 0.47% to 98.81, the offshore RMB appreciated significantly to 7.1717, US Treasury yields fell collectively, with the 10 - year Treasury yield dropping 9.85 basis points to 4.355%, and COMEX gold futures rose 0.60% to $3397.40 per ounce [4]. - For silver, the same weak economic data led to increasing expectations of interest rate cuts. COMEX silver futures rose 0.06% to $34.66 per ounce [6]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is - 3.02, with the spot at a discount to the futures (neutral); the gold futures warehouse receipts are 17,247 kilograms, unchanged (bearish); the 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average (neutral); the main net position is long, and the main long position has increased (bullish) [5]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 28, with the spot at a discount to the futures (neutral); the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 1,087,210 kilograms, increasing by 18,364 kilograms day - on - day (neutral); the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average (bullish); the main net position is long, and the main long position has increased (bullish) [6]. 3. Today's Focus - Today, investors should pay attention to China's May Caixin PMI, the ECB's interest rate decision and the governor's speech, the US April trade balance, and speeches by Fed and BoE officials. The weak US economic data has increased expectations of interest rate cuts, and the failure of the US - Iran negotiations and the possible ECB interest rate cuts support gold prices. Gold prices will fluctuate [4]. - Specific events to watch include South Korea's Q1 GDP final value at 07:00, Australia's April goods and services trade balance at 09:30, China's May Caixin Services and Composite PMI at 09:45, the ECB's policy interest rate release at 20:15, etc. [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The fundamental situation is neutral. The weak economic data and increasing interest rate cut expectations have an impact on gold prices, but other factors also need to be considered. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to around 3.4 yuan/gram [4]. - **Silver**: The fundamental situation is also affected by the weak economic data and interest rate cut expectations, and silver prices will follow the fluctuations of gold prices. The premium of Shanghai silver has expanded to around 496 yuan/kg [6]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, and the main long position has increased. The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 3.77% to 203,268 on June 4, 2025, the short position increased by 5.08% to 72,216, and the net position increased by 3.06% to 131,052 [5][30]. - **Silver**: The main net position is long, but the long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 0.16% to 470,538 on June 4, 2025, the short position increased by 1.04% to 336,044, and the net position decreased by 3.04% to 134,494 [6][33].

能源化工日报 日度观点: ◆ PVC： 5 月 7 日 PVC 冲高回落。昨日开始受中美和谈等消息影响，市场一度宏 观偏暖迹象，工业品冲高。国内出台货币政策等，力度一般，但市场更 多交易对经济的担忧，夜盘美联储偏鹰。长期看 PVC 需求在地产拖累下 持续低迷，出口受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制，且出口体量总体占比不大 （12%左右）；供应端有不少新投计划，二季度投产压力较大，且烧碱利 润高开工持续维持高位，库存高企供应压力较大；基本面需求不足、产 能过剩，供需宽松格局，偏空配。4 月中旬开始环比有增多，出口以价 换量持稳状态，内需季节性恢复，最近库存去化尚可，基本面驱动有限， 宏观主导。目前海外局势动荡，全球经济增速放缓，国内政策预期不强， PVC 估值偏低，盘面弱势整理。重点关注关税谈判进展、国内刺激政策 力度。基本面关注出口和检修力度。若国内刺激政策超预期，或有一定 支撑。若贸易摩擦恶化、经济预期继续恶化，盘面进一步承压。 ◆ 烧碱： 5 月 7 日烧碱主力 SH09 合约收 2513 元/吨（+15），山东市场主流价 800 元/吨（0），折百 2500 元/吨（0），液氯山东-100 元/吨（0）。4 ...