1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: The US plans to promote the commercial reserve of critical mineral resources, and China is expected to strengthen copper reserves. The US economic data is relatively volatile, and the manufacturing sentiment is strong, providing support on the sentiment side. The copper ore supply remains tight, while the domestic refined copper supply maintains high growth, with relatively abundant short - term supply. It is expected that copper prices will mainly fluctuate. [4] - Aluminum: Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories continue to accumulate, and downstream demand is weak in the off - season. The LME aluminum inventory remains at a relatively low level, and the US aluminum spot premium remains high, so there is still strong support for aluminum prices. It is expected that aluminum prices will be in a range - bound pattern. [7] - Lead: The visible inventory of lead ore has a slight decline but is still higher than the same period in previous years, and the lead concentrate processing fee remains at a low level. The waste battery inventory continues to rise, higher than that in 2025. Near the Spring Festival, the smelter's operating rate declines seasonally. The lead ingot social inventory continues to accumulate, and the domestic industry situation is weak. Whether the lead price can stabilize needs to be observed based on the restocking willingness of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival. [10] - Zinc: The accumulation of visible zinc ore inventory slows down, and the zinc concentrate TC stops falling and stabilizes. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory begins to accumulate. The downstream enterprise operations are mediocre, and the finished - product inventories of die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide enterprises rise rapidly. The domestic zinc industry performs weakly. However, short - term funds are greatly affected by macro - sentiment disturbances. Near the Spring Festival holiday, there is still a risk of abnormal movements in non - ferrous metals during the festival. The strong US PMI boosts the market's expectation of consumption recovery, which may drive zinc prices to rise with the non - ferrous metal sector. [12] - Tin: After the secondary decline of precious metal prices, there are signs of stabilization, and tin prices may rebound. Although tin prices still maintain an upward trend in the medium - to - long term, in the short term, with the marginal relaxation of tin ingot supply and demand and the recent steady increase in inventory, there is also pressure for a significant increase. It is expected that tin prices will mainly operate in a wide - range oscillation. [14] - Nickel: After the secondary decline of precious metals and risk assets, they stabilize, and there is a short - term rebound demand. However, nickel still faces fundamental pressure, and it is expected that nickel prices will mainly fluctuate in a wide range. The approved nickel ore production quota is close to market expectations, and it is expected to have limited impact on nickel prices. [16] - Lithium Carbonate: In January, the year - on - year growth rates of domestic power and energy - storage battery production and sales were 55.9% and 85.1% respectively, and the lithium demand expectation is strong. After the Spring Festival, the production schedule growth rate of the material side is considerable. At the same time, there are frequent disturbances on the supply side. Although the substantial impact is limited, it is easy to ignite market sentiment under the inventory decline trend. In the future, the game between upstream hoarding and downstream restocking will affect the direction of lithium prices. [19] - Alumina: There is a strike in a mine in the Boké region of Guinea. It is necessary to observe whether the impact of the strike expands. Currently, production and shipping are normal. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. Although there are more capacity overhauls recently, the overall output is still at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. [22] - Stainless Steel: From the supply side, although the raw material supply has recovered, under the influence of the steel mill's price - limit policy, the shipment rhythm of agents generally slows down. On the demand side, restricted by the pre - Spring Festival seasonal off - season, the overall market purchasing willingness is not strong, and the acceptance of high - priced resources is limited. Traders mostly choose to actively ship, reduce inventory, and mainly execute previous orders, with a weak willingness to actively restock. Steel mills will have collective production cuts in February, and the market generally believes that the subsequent supply will gradually tighten, and the short - term supply pressure is relatively controllable. Overall, the stainless - steel fundamentals still have support, and the strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged. [25] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The cost - side price of cast aluminum alloy rebounds. Although the demand is relatively average, under the background of continuous supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply, the short - term price still has support. [28] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: The US employment data was better than expected. Overnight, US stocks rose first and then fell, and copper prices rose. The LME copper 3M closed up 1.06% to $13,239 per ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 102,190 yuan per ton. The LME copper inventory increased by 3,000 to 192,100 tons, with the increase coming from Asian warehouses. The cancelled warrant ratio increased, and Cash/3M remained at a discount. The domestic SHFE daily warehouse receipts increased by 13,000 to 179,000 tons. The Shanghai spot market turned to a discount of 50 yuan per ton to the futures, and the market trading remained dull. The Guangdong spot market was at a discount of 60 yuan per ton to the futures, and the holders of goods held firm on the basis price quotes, with dull trading. The Shanghai copper spot import loss was about 700 yuan per ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference was 3,110 yuan per ton, expanding compared with the previous period. [3] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected that copper prices will mainly fluctuate. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract today is 101,000 - 104,000 yuan per ton; the reference range for the LME copper 3M is 13,100 - 13,400 US dollars per ton. [4] Aluminum - **Market Information**: The situation between the US and Iran is still uncertain. Crude oil prices rose first and then fell, and aluminum prices rebounded. The LME aluminum closed up 0.39% to $3,117 per ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,555 yuan per ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract increased slightly to 663,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 1,000 to 168,000 tons. The domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory increased month - on - month, and the aluminum rod inventory also increased. The aluminum rod processing fee continued to rebound, and the spot trading remained dull. The East China electrolytic aluminum spot was at a discount of 190 yuan per ton to the futures, and the spot trading volume gradually declined. The LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 1,000 to 486,000 tons, the cancelled warrant ratio declined, and Cash/3M remained at a discount. [6] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected that aluminum prices will be in a range - bound pattern. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract today is 23,300 - 23,800 yuan per ton; the reference range for the LME aluminum 3M is 3,090 - 3,160 US dollars per ton. [7] Lead - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Shanghai lead index closed up 0.39% to 16,753 yuan per ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 124,100 lots. As of 15:00 on Wednesday, the LME lead 3S rose 8 to $1,978 per ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 178,100 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,575 yuan per ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,550 yuan per ton, the refined - scrap price difference was 25 yuan per ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,875 yuan per ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 46,500 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 35 yuan per ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - consecutive contract was - 90 yuan per ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 232,800 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 15,900 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 50.95 US dollars per ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 126.6 US dollars per ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the disk Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.227, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 306.79 yuan per ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on February 9 was 49,900 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons compared with February 5. [9] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Whether the lead price can stabilize needs to be observed based on the restocking willingness of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival. [10] Zinc - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed up 0.57% to 24,634 yuan per ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 193,200 lots. As of 15:00 on Wednesday, the LME zinc 3S rose 50 to $3,416.5 per ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 230,700 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 24,460 yuan per ton, the Shanghai basis was - 30 yuan per ton, the Tianjin basis was - 80 yuan per ton, the Guangdong basis was - 50 yuan per ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread was 20 yuan per ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 42,300 tons, the domestic Shanghai - area basis was - 30 yuan per ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - consecutive contract was - 50 yuan per ton. The LME zinc ingot inventory was 106,800 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 11,800 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 19.55 US dollars per ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 71.21 US dollars per ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the disk Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.046, and the zinc ingot import profit and loss was - 3,392.57 yuan per ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets on February 9 was 128,100 tons, an increase of 9,800 tons compared with February 5. [11] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The strong US PMI boosts the market's expectation of consumption recovery, which may drive zinc prices to rise with the non - ferrous metal sector. [12] Tin - **Market Information**: On February 11, tin prices fluctuated and rose. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 394,700 yuan per ton, up 3.32% from the previous day. On the supply side, the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan last week remained stable at a high level, and the refined tin output in Jiangxi was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. However, after the two regions recovered from maintenance, the upward momentum was insufficient. There were both constraints on the scrap side and high - price waiting - and - seeing by downstream, and the short - term supply was difficult to increase significantly. On the demand side, although the price decline released some rigid procurement demand and the spot trading recovered slightly, the overall price was still at a high level, and the downstream's willingness to restock before the festival was still not obvious, mostly holding a cautious wait - and - see attitude. Coupled with the cost pressure on the terminal industry brought by the overall rise of the metal sector, the upward transmission speed of demand was slow, and the actual support for the现货 market was limited. [13] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected that tin prices will mainly operate in a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 350,000 - 410,000 yuan per ton, and the reference operating range for overseas LME tin is 46,000 - 50,000 US dollars per ton. [14] Nickel - **Market Information**: On February 11, nickel prices rose significantly. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 139,360 yuan per ton, up 4.51% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premiums and discounts of various brands remained stable. The average premium of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was 50 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 9,500 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day. On the cost side, nickel ore prices remained stable. The ex - factory price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic red - soil nickel ore was reported at $61.42 per wet ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the ex - factory price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic red - soil nickel ore was reported at $25 per wet ton, unchanged from the previous day. In terms of nickel iron, prices fluctuated upward. The average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was reported at 1,047.5 yuan per nickel point, up 7.5 yuan per nickel point from the previous day. [15] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected that nickel prices will mainly fluctuate in a wide range. The approved nickel ore production quota is close to market expectations, and it is expected to have limited impact on nickel prices. The reference range for Shanghai nickel prices is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan per ton, and the reference range for the LME nickel 3M contract is 16,000 - 18,000 US dollars per ton. [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The evening quotation of the Wukuang Steel Union lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) was 139,123 yuan, up 1.99% from the previous working day. Among them, the MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 135,500 - 143,600 yuan, with the average price up 2,750 yuan (+2.01%) from the previous working day, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 132,500 - 140,500 yuan, with the average price up 1.87% from the previous day. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 150,260 yuan, up 9.41% from the previous closing price. The average premium and discount of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,200 yuan. [18] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future game between upstream hoarding and downstream restocking will affect the direction of lithium prices. The reference operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 138,000 - 156,000 yuan per ton. [19] Alumina - **Market Information**: On February 11, 2026, as of 15:00, the alumina index rose 0.28% intraday to 2,845 yuan per ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 457,800 lots, a decrease of 10,400 lots from the previous trading day. In terms of the basis, the Shandong spot price remained at 2,555 yuan per ton, at a discount of 287 yuan per ton to the main contract. Overseas, the MYSTEEL Australian FOB price remained at $304 per ton, and the import profit and loss was reported at - 65 yuan per ton. In terms of futures inventory, the futures warehouse receipts on Wednesday were reported at 262,700 tons, an increase of 11,700 tons from the previous trading day. At the mine end, the Guinea CIF price remained at $61 per ton, and the Australian CIF price remained at $58 per ton. [21] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,750 - 3,000 yuan per ton. It is necessary to focus on domestic supply contraction policies, Guinea ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy. [22] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Wednesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,040 yuan per ton, up 2.18% (+300) on the day, with a unilateral position of 205,500 lots, a decrease of 5,669 lots from the previous trading day.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: The US plans to promote the commercial reserve of critical mineral resources, and China is expected to strengthen copper reserves. The US economic data is relatively volatile, with strong manufacturing sentiment providing support. The copper price is expected to fluctuate, with the Shanghai copper main contract reference range of 101,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton and the LME copper 3M reference range of 13,000 - 13,300 US dollars/ton [5]. - Aluminum: Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories continue to accumulate, with weak demand in the off - season; LME aluminum inventories remain relatively low, and the US aluminum spot premium remains high, providing strong support for the aluminum price. Before the holiday, the aluminum price is expected to be range - bound, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract reference range of 23,300 - 23,800 yuan/ton and the LME aluminum 3M reference range of 3,080 - 3,130 US dollars/ton [8]. - Lead: The visible lead ore inventory has declined slightly but is still higher than the same period in previous years, and the lead concentrate processing fee remains low. The scrap battery inventory continues to rise. Near the Spring Festival, the smelter's operating rate declines seasonally. Whether the lead price can stabilize depends on the restocking willingness of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival [10]. - Zinc: The visible zinc ore inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the zinc concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized. Domestic zinc ingot social inventories have started to accumulate, and the downstream industry is performing weakly. However, short - term funds are greatly affected by macro - sentiment. Strong US PMI may drive the zinc price to rise [12]. - Tin: Short - term precious metal prices show signs of stabilizing after a second decline, and tin prices may rebound. In the short term, due to the marginal relaxation of tin ingot supply and demand and the recent steady increase in inventories, there is pressure on a significant increase. The tin price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see [14]. - Nickel: Precious metal and risk asset prices have stabilized after a second decline, with a short - term rebound demand. However, nickel still faces fundamental pressure, and the short - term nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely. The approved nickel ore production quota is close to market expectations and is expected to have limited impact on the nickel price [16]. - Lithium Carbonate: Before the holiday, funds are in a wait - and - see mood. The future lithium demand is expected to be strong. If the resumption of production of large mines in Jiangxi fails, the supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate after the Spring Festival will still be tight. Currently, there is a lack of new drivers, and the lithium price is likely to fluctuate within a range [19]. - Alumina: There is a strike in the bauxite mine in Guinea, and the subsequent impact needs to be observed. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [22]. - Stainless Steel: From the supply side, the raw material supply has recovered, but the agents' shipment rhythm has slowed down under the steel mill's price - limit policy. From the demand side, affected by the pre - Spring Festival off - season, the market's purchasing willingness is not strong. The market generally believes that the subsequent supply will gradually tighten, and it is recommended to maintain the strategy of buying low, with the main contract reference range of 13,500 - 13,900 yuan/ton [24]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The cost of cast aluminum alloy has risen. Despite general demand, the short - term price is still supported under the background of continuous supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply [27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: The US retail sales data was weaker than expected. Overnight, the US stock market rose and then fell, and the copper price fluctuated and adjusted. The LME copper 3M closed down 0.64% to 13,100 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 101,730 yuan/ton. LME copper inventories increased by 4,800 tons to 189,100 tons. Domestic Shanghai Futures Exchange daily warehouse receipts increased by 0.9 to 166,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai was at a premium of 5 yuan/ton to the futures, and the spot in Guangdong was at a discount of 105 yuan/ton to the futures. The spot import of Shanghai copper had a loss of about 700 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The US plans to promote the commercial reserve of critical mineral resources, and China is expected to strengthen copper reserves. The US economic data is relatively volatile, with strong manufacturing sentiment providing support. The copper price is expected to fluctuate, with the Shanghai copper main contract reference range of 101,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton and the LME copper 3M reference range of 13,000 - 13,300 US dollars/ton [5]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: As the long holiday approaches, market volatility has decreased. The increasing uncertainty of the Mozambique aluminum plant's production cut has led to an adjustment in the aluminum price. The LME aluminum closed down 0.8% to 3,105 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,545 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract decreased by 0.4 to 663,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.2 to 167,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories in three regions increased, and aluminum rod inventories rose. The LME aluminum ingot inventories decreased by 0.2 to 487,000 tons [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories continue to accumulate, with weak demand in the off - season; LME aluminum inventories remain relatively low, and the US aluminum spot premium remains high, providing strong support for the aluminum price. Before the holiday, the aluminum price is expected to be range - bound, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract reference range of 23,300 - 23,800 yuan/ton and the LME aluminum 3M reference range of 3,080 - 3,130 US dollars/ton [8]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai lead index closed up 0.52% to 16,688 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 126,000 lots. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, LME lead 3S rose 11.5 to 1,970 US dollars/ton, with a total position of 176,300 lots. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,525 yuan/ton, and the recycled refined lead average price was 16,500 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 45,500 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 232,800 tons [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible lead ore inventory has declined slightly but is still higher than the same period in previous years, and the lead concentrate processing fee remains low. The scrap battery inventory continues to rise. Near the Spring Festival, the smelter's operating rate declines seasonally. Whether the lead price can stabilize depends on the restocking willingness of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival [10]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.30% to 24,494 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 193,000 lots. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, LME zinc 3S rose 5 to 3,366.5 US dollars/ton, with a total position of 229,400 lots. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 24,460 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc ingot futures inventory was 34,200 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 106,900 tons [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible zinc ore inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the zinc concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized. Domestic zinc ingot social inventories have started to accumulate, and the downstream industry is performing weakly. However, short - term funds are greatly affected by macro - sentiment. Strong US PMI may drive the zinc price to rise [12]. Tin - **Market Information**: On February 10, the tin price fluctuated narrowly. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 382,000 yuan/ton, down 0.57% from the previous day. On the supply side, the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remained high and stable last week, while the refined tin output in Jiangxi was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. On the demand side, although the price decline has released some rigid procurement demand and spot transactions have slightly improved, the overall price is still at a high level, and the downstream's pre - holiday restocking willingness is not obvious [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term precious metal prices show signs of stabilizing after a second decline, and tin prices may rebound. In the short term, due to the marginal relaxation of tin ingot supply and demand and the recent steady increase in inventories, there is pressure on a significant increase. The tin price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract reference range is 350,000 - 410,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin reference range is 46,000 - 50,000 US dollars/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On February 10, the nickel price fell slightly. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 133,350 yuan/ton, down 0.87% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand remained stable. The nickel ore price remained stable, and the nickel iron price fluctuated upward [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Precious metal and risk asset prices have stabilized after a second decline, with a short - term rebound demand. However, nickel still faces fundamental pressure, and the short - term nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely. The approved nickel ore production quota is close to market expectations and is expected to have limited impact on the nickel price. The Shanghai nickel price reference range is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel 3M contract reference range is 16,000 - 18,000 US dollars/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) closed at 136,408 yuan in the evening session, up 0.06% from the previous trading day. The LC2605 contract closed at 137,340 yuan, up 0.25% from the previous closing price [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Before the holiday, funds are in a wait - and - see mood. The future lithium demand is expected to be strong. If the resumption of production of large mines in Jiangxi fails, the supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate after the Spring Festival will still be tight. Currently, there is a lack of new drivers, and the lithium price is likely to fluctuate within a range. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 129,000 - 147,000 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On February 10, 2026, as of 15:00, the alumina index fell 1.11% to 2,837 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 468,200 lots, a decrease of 14,600 lots from the previous trading day. The Shandong spot price remained at 2,555 yuan/ton, at a discount of 280 yuan/ton to the main contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price remained at 304 US dollars/ton, and the import loss was reported at - 69 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts on Tuesday were reported at 251,000 tons, an increase of 84,000 tons from the previous trading day [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There is a strike in the bauxite mine in Guinea, and the subsequent impact needs to be observed. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The future price trend depends on whether the Guinea mine disturbance can be materialized and whether the high domestic supply pressure can be effectively alleviated. The domestic main contract AO2605 reference range is 2,750 - 3,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to domestic supply contraction policies, Guinea ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Tuesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 13,740 yuan/ton, up 0.04% (+5) on the day, with a unilateral position of 211,200 lots, a decrease of 6,582 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the prices of cold - rolled coils in Foshan and Wuxi remained unchanged. The raw material prices also remained stable. The futures inventory was 47,800 tons, an increase of 4,221 from the previous day. As of February 6, social inventories increased to 914,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.07%, and the 300 - series inventory was 632,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.49% [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: From the supply side, the raw material supply has recovered, but the agents' shipment rhythm has slowed down under the steel mill's price - limit policy. From the demand side, affected by the pre - Spring Festival off - season, the market's purchasing willingness is not strong. The market generally believes that the subsequent supply will gradually tighten, and it is recommended to maintain the strategy of buying low, with the main contract reference range of 13,500 - 13,900 yuan/ton [24]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Yesterday, the cast aluminum alloy price fluctuated. The main AD2604 contract closed down 0.2% to 22,120 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position increased to 25,000 lots, and the trading volume was 8,700 lots. The warehouse receipts decreased by 0.12 to 67,300 tons. The domestic three - region aluminum alloy inventory decreased by 0.01 to 40,900 tons [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy has risen. Despite general demand, the short - term price is still supported under the background of continuous supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply [27].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report Core Views - The overall sentiment in the market is relatively warm in the short - term. The prices of some metals are expected to show different trends, such as copper and aluminum may rise, while others like lead and zinc have complex influencing factors and their future trends need further observation. [5][7] - For different metals, specific strategies are proposed, including reference price ranges and trading suggestions like waiting and seeing or taking long - position at low prices. [5][7][12] Group 3: Summary by Metal Category Copper - **Market Data**: The LME copper 3M closed up 0.96% to $13,185/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 102,450 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 1,025 to 184,300 tons. The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased, and the bonded - area inventory increased slightly. The Shanghai spot copper had a premium of 35 yuan/ton over the futures, while the Guangdong spot had a discount of 105 yuan/ton. The spot import loss was about 700 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference was 3,090 yuan/ton. [3][4] - **Strategy**: Due to factors such as a strong US stock market, plans for key mineral reserves, and a better - than - expected US consumer confidence index, the short - term sentiment is positive. Although the new Fed Chairman's monetary policy is slightly hawkish, the interest - rate cut trend remains. The copper mine supply is tight, but the domestic refined copper supply is growing strongly. It is expected that the copper price will fluctuate strongly. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 101,000 - 104,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $13,000 - 13,400/ton. [5] Aluminum - **Market Data**: The LME aluminum closed up 0.64% to $3,130/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,625 yuan/ton. The Shanghai aluminum weighted contract's open interest increased by 16,000 to 667,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 9,000 to 165,000 tons. The domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased, and the aluminum rod processing fee declined. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,000 to 489,000 tons. [6] - **Strategy**: The domestic aluminum inventory is accumulating, and the downstream demand is weak in the off - season. However, the LME aluminum inventory is relatively low, and the US aluminum spot premium is high, providing strong support for the aluminum price. With the stabilization of the US stock market and precious metals, the aluminum price is expected to rise. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 23,300 - 23,900 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $3,080 - 3,160/ton. [7] Lead - **Market Data**: The Shanghai lead index closed up 0.29% to 16,602 yuan/ton, and the LME lead 3S rose by 9.5 to $1,958.5/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,425 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was at par. The domestic lead ingot social inventory increased by 4,000 tons to 49,900 tons on February 9th compared to February 5th. [8] - **Strategy**: The lead ore's visible inventory has slightly decreased but is still higher than in previous years, and the lead concentrate processing fee remains low. The scrap battery inventory is rising. The smelter's operating rate has seasonally declined. The lead ingot social inventory is accumulating, and the domestic industrial situation is weak. Whether the lead price can stabilize depends on the downstream battery enterprises' restocking willingness after the Spring Festival. [9] Zinc - **Market Data**: The Shanghai zinc index closed up 0.34% to 24,567 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3S rose by 76 to $3,361.5/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 24,660 yuan/ton. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory increased by 9,800 tons to 128,100 tons on February 9th compared to February 5th. [10] - **Strategy**: The zinc ore's visible inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the zinc concentrate TC has stopped falling. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory has started to accumulate, and the downstream enterprises' operating performance is average. The finished - product inventory of die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide enterprises has risen rapidly. Although the domestic zinc industry is weak, short - term funds are greatly affected by macro - sentiment, and strong US PMI may drive the zinc price to rise with the non - ferrous metal sector. [11] Tin - **Market Data**: On February 9th, the tin price slightly decreased, and the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 384,180 yuan/ton, down 7.61%. The supply is difficult to increase significantly in the short - term due to factors such as high - level but stagnant smelter operating rates in Yunnan and low production in Jiangxi due to scrap tin shortages. The demand has not shown strong improvement, and the downstream pre - holiday restocking willingness is not obvious. [12] - **Strategy**: The short - term precious metal price has shown signs of stabilization, and the tin price may rebound. Although the tin price has a long - term upward trend, in the short - term, there is pressure for a sharp rise under the background of a marginal relaxation in supply - demand and a steady increase in inventory. It is recommended to wait and see, with the domestic main contract reference range of 350,000 - 410,000 yuan/ton and the overseas LME tin reference range of $46,000 - 50,000/ton. [12] Nickel - **Market Data**: On February 9th, the nickel price slightly declined, and the Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 134,463 yuan/ton, down 2.03%. The spot market's brand premiums and discounts were stable, and the nickel ore price was stable. The nickel - iron price fluctuated upward. [13] - **Strategy**: After the second decline of precious metals and risk assets, there is a short - term demand for rebound, but the nickel price still faces fundamental pressure. It is expected to fluctuate widely, with the Shanghai nickel price reference range of 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton and the LME nickel 3M contract reference range of $16,000 - 18,000/ton. [14] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: The Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) closed at 136,322 yuan, up 3.21%. The battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 134,200 - 139,200 yuan, with an average increase of 4,200 yuan (3.17%), and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate was up 3.47%. The LC2605 contract closed at 137,000 yuan, up 3.07%. [16] - **Strategy**: The market's pessimistic sentiment has eased. If the resumption of a major mine in Jiangxi fails to materialize, the supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate will remain tight after the Spring Festival, and the inventory will continue to decline. The downstream has basically completed pre - holiday restocking. The futures position of lithium carbonate has reached a six - month low, and it is likely to fluctuate within a range. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 129,000 - 147,000 yuan/ton. [17] Alumina - **Market Data**: On February 9th, the alumina index rose 1.62% to 2,869 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased. The Shandong spot price was 2,555 yuan/ton, at a discount to the main contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price was $304/ton, and the import loss was 75 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 24,600 tons to 242,600 tons. The ore prices in Guinea and Australia remained stable. [19] - **Strategy**: Workers at a mine in Guinea's Boké region have launched an indefinite strike. The alumina smelting capacity is in an over - supply situation in the short - term, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to wait and see, and the future price trend depends on whether the Guinea mine disruption will materialize and whether the high domestic supply pressure can be effectively alleviated. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,750 - 3,000 yuan/ton, and key factors to watch include domestic supply contraction policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy. [20] Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 13,735 yuan/ton on Monday, up 0.48%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets were stable. The raw material prices were also stable. The futures inventory increased, and the social inventory increased to 914,200 tons, with the 300 - series inventory up 2.49%. [22] - **Strategy**: From the supply side, although the raw material supply has recovered, the agents' sales rhythm has slowed down due to the steel mill's price - limit policy. The demand is restricted by the pre - Spring Festival off - season, and the market's purchasing willingness is weak. The steel mills will collectively cut production in February, and the supply is expected to tighten. It is recommended to maintain the strategy of going long at low prices, with the main contract reference range of 13,500 - 13,900 yuan/ton. [23] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Data**: The cast aluminum alloy price rebounded, and the main AD2604 contract closed slightly up 0.54% to 22,165 yuan/ton. The weighted contract's open interest and trading volume remained high, and the warehouse receipts increased. The domestic mainstream ADC12 average price increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the import price was stable. The domestic three - place aluminum alloy inventory decreased. [25] - **Strategy**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy has increased. Although the demand is average, the price is strongly supported in the short - term due to continuous supply - side disruptions and seasonal tightness in raw material supply. [26]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment in the market is generally positive due to factors such as the strengthening of the US stock market, the US plan to promote the commercial reserve of critical mineral resources, and China's expected enhancement of copper reserves. The US consumer confidence index is better than expected. Although the newly - announced Fed Chairman has a moderately hawkish monetary policy attitude, it does not change the rhythm of continued interest rate cuts this year [4]. - For different metals, the prices are expected to show different trends. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly; aluminum prices are expected to stabilize and rise; the stabilization of lead prices needs to be observed after the Spring Festival; zinc prices may follow the rise of non - ferrous metals driven by consumption expectations; tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely; nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term; the supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate may continue in the short term, and the price balance will be determined by the game between upstream reluctance to sell and downstream stocking; the price of alumina is recommended to be observed; stainless steel prices are expected to rise; the price of cast aluminum alloy has strong short - term support [4][6][8][10][12][14][17][20][23][26]. Summary by Metal Copper Market Information - On Friday, the US stock market rose sharply, precious metals rebounded, and copper prices stabilized and rebounded. LME copper 3M closed up 1.59% at $13,060/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 101,490 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 2,700 to 183,275 tons, with the increase coming from Asian and North American warehouses. The cancellation warrant ratio declined, and the Cash/3M was at a discount of $71/ton. Domestic SHFE weekly inventory increased by 16,000 to 249,000 tons, and daily warrants decreased by 500 to 160,000 tons. The Shanghai spot market turned to a premium of 40 yuan/ton over the futures, and the Guangdong spot market was at a discount of 55 yuan/ton. The spot import of Shanghai copper had a loss of about 600 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference was 3,120 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous period [3]. Strategy Viewpoint - With positive sentiment in the market, and the supply of copper ore remaining tight while domestic refined copper supply maintains high growth, short - term supply is relatively abundant. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract today is 100,000 - 104,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME copper 3M is $12,900 - $13,300/ton [4]. Aluminum Market Information - On Friday, sentiment improved, and aluminum prices stabilized and rebounded. LME aluminum closed up 2.78% at $3,110/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,585 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract decreased by 5,000 to 651,000 lots, and futures warrants increased by 1,000 to 156,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot inventory in three regions decreased month - on - month, aluminum rod inventory remained flat, the processing fee of aluminum rods rebounded, and spot trading remained dull. The spot in East China was at a discount of 150 yuan/ton to the futures, and downstream buyers were still willing to buy at low prices. LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 2,000 to 491,000 tons, the cancellation warrant ratio declined, and the Cash/3M remained at a discount [5]. Strategy Viewpoint - Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories continue to accumulate, and downstream demand is still weak due to high prices and the off - season. However, LME aluminum inventory remains at a relatively low level, and the US aluminum spot premium remains high, providing strong support for aluminum prices. With the stabilization of the US stock market and precious metals, aluminum prices are expected to stabilize and rise. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract today is 23,200 - 24,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME aluminum 3M is $3,080 - $3,150/ton [6]. Lead Market Information - Last Friday, the Shanghai lead index closed down 0.21% at 16,554 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 118,000 lots. As of 15:00 last Friday, LME lead 3S fell 11 to $1,949/ton compared to the previous day, with a total position of 173,300 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,400 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,425 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was - 25 yuan/ton. The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,925 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 35,800 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 110 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 20 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 232,900 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancellation warrants were 15,800 tons. The foreign basis of the cash - 3S contract was - 48.6 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 145.9 dollars/ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.227, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 324.93 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on February 5 was 45,900 tons, an increase of 6,900 tons compared to February 2 [7]. Strategy Viewpoint - The visible inventory of lead ore has declined slightly but is still higher than the same period in previous years, and the lead concentrate processing fee remains at a low level. The inventory of waste batteries continues to rise, higher than that in 2025. As the Spring Festival approaches, the smelter's operating rate declines seasonally. Lead ingot social inventory continues to accumulate, and the domestic industry situation is weak. Currently, lead prices are close to the lower edge of the long - term shock range, but downstream consumption is average. Whether lead prices can stabilize needs to be observed based on the stocking willingness of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival [8]. Zinc Market Information - Last Friday, the Shanghai zinc index closed up 0.18% at 24,484 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 190,600 lots. As of 15:00 last Friday, LME zinc 3S rose 6.5 to $3,285.5/ton compared to the previous day, with a total position of 229,400 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 24,550 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was - 30 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was - 80 yuan/ton, the Guangdong basis was - 60 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread was 30 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 31,100 tons, the domestic Shanghai - area basis was - 30 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was 5 yuan/ton. The LME zinc ingot inventory was 107,800 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancellation warrants were 13,300 tons. The foreign basis of the cash - 3S contract was - 20.75 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 41.1 dollars/ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.077, and the zinc ingot import profit and loss was - 2,594.5 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets on February 5 was 118,300 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons compared to February 2 [9]. Strategy Viewpoint - The accumulation of visible zinc ore inventory has slowed down, and the zinc concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized. Domestic zinc ingot social inventory has begun to accumulate. The operating performance of downstream enterprises is average, and the finished product inventory of die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide enterprises has risen rapidly. The domestic zinc industry shows a weak performance. However, currently, short - term funds are greatly affected by macro - sentiment. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, there is still a risk of fluctuations in non - ferrous metals during the festival. The strong US PMI may still drive zinc prices to rise following non - ferrous metals based on consumption expectations [10]. Tin Market Information - On February 6, tin prices fell slightly. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 357,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.23% from the previous day. In terms of supply, the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan last week remained stable at a high level, while the refined tin output in Jiangxi was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. However, after the two regions recovered from maintenance, the upward momentum was insufficient, with constraints on the scrap end and downstream high - price wait - and - see coexisting, and short - term supply was difficult to increase significantly. In terms of demand, although the price decline released some rigid procurement demand and spot trading recovered slightly, the overall price was still at a high level, and downstream pre - holiday stocking willingness was still not obvious, with most holding a cautious wait - and - see attitude. Coupled with the cost pressure on the terminal industry brought by the overall rise of the metal sector, the upward transmission speed of demand was slow, and the actual support for the spot market was limited [11]. Strategy Viewpoint - After the second decline of precious metal prices, there are signs of stabilization, and tin prices may rebound. Although tin prices still maintain an upward trend in the medium and long term, in the short term, with the marginal relaxation of tin ingot supply - demand and the recent steady increase in inventory, there is also pressure for a significant increase. It is expected that tin prices will mainly operate in a wide - range shock. In terms of operation, it is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 350,000 - 400,000 yuan/ton, and the reference operating range for overseas LME tin is $45,000 - $48,000/ton [12]. Nickel Market Information - On February 6, nickel prices fell slightly. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 131,840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.93% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand remained stable. The average premium and discount of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was - 100 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 9,400 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day. In terms of cost, nickel ore prices remained stable. The arrival price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic red - soil nickel ore at the factory was reported at $54.54/wet ton, the same as the previous day, and the arrival price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic red - soil nickel ore at the factory was reported at $23/wet ton, the same as the previous day. In terms of nickel iron, prices fluctuated upward. The average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was reported at 1,038 yuan/nickel point, an increase of 1 yuan/nickel point from the previous day [13]. Strategy Viewpoint - After the second decline of precious metals and risk assets, prices have stabilized, and there is a short - term rebound demand. However, nickel still faces fundamental pressure, and short - term nickel prices are expected to mainly fluctuate widely. The reference operating range for Shanghai nickel prices is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and the reference operating range for LME nickel 3M contracts is $16,000 - $18,000/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - Last Friday, the evening quotation of the Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) was 132,080 yuan, a decrease of 4.89% from the previous working day and a decrease of 14.85% within the week. The MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 126,400 - 138,600 yuan, with the average price decreasing by 6,750 yuan (- 4.85%) from the previous working day. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 123,500 - 135,500 yuan, with the average price decreasing by 5.13% from the previous day. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 132,920 yuan, an increase of 0.11% from the previous closing price and a decrease of 10.31% within the week. The average premium and discount of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,200 yuan. The CIF quotation of SMM Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was $1,880 - $2,020/ton, with the average price decreasing by 1.27% from the previous day and a decrease of 10.34% within the week [16]. Strategy Viewpoint - The risk appetite in the commodity market has declined, and the prices of popular commodities such as precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and lithium carbonate have fallen. Recently, due to the maintenance of salt factories, the domestic lithium carbonate output has continuously decreased, while the export of lithium sulfate from Chile in January reached a record high, and the subsequent import supply increment is obvious. The future demand expectation is strong. According to the preliminary statistics of third - party production scheduling data, affected by the Spring Festival in February, the production scheduling of the cathode link only decreased by about 11 - 15% month - on - month, and the year - on - year growth rate of production scheduling in the material end in March is generally greater than 50%. The short - term supply - demand tight balance of lithium carbonate is expected to continue. After the release of market sentiment risks, the game between upstream reluctance to sell and downstream stocking may determine the price balance. Recently, the commodity market has fluctuated greatly. It is recommended to wait and see carefully or try with a light position. The reference operating range for the main contract of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 122,000 - 146,000 yuan/ton [17]. Alumina Market Information - On February 6, 2026, as of 15:00, the alumina index rose 1.19% to 2,824 yuan/ton within the day, with a total unilateral trading position of 492,800 lots, a decrease of 19,800 lots from the previous trading day. In terms of the basis, the spot price in Shandong remained at 2,555 yuan/ton, at a discount of 269 yuan/ton to the main contract. Overseas, the MYSTEEL Australian FOB price remained at $304/ton, and the import profit and loss was reported at - 75 yuan/ton. In terms of futures inventory, the futures warrants on Friday were reported at 218,000 tons, an increase of 2,400 tons from the previous trading day. In the ore end, the CIF price in Guinea remained at $61/ton, and the CIF price in Australia remained at $58/ton [19]. Strategy Viewpoint - At the ore end, workers at a mine in the Boké region of Guinea launched an indefinite strike. This region is the core area of bauxite in Guinea. It is necessary to observe whether the impact of the strike will expand. Currently, production and shipping are normal. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. Although there has been an increase in capacity maintenance recently, the overall output is still at a high level. Sustained rebound still faces three dilemmas: over - capacity in the smelting end, downward cost support, and the pressure of expiring warrant delivery. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton. It is necessary to focus on domestic supply contraction policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [20]. Stainless Steel Market Information - At 15:00 on Thursday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 13,810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.11% (- 15) on the day, with a unilateral position of 230,200 lots, a decrease of 7,380 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the Delong 304 cold - rolled coil price in the Foshan market

有色金属日报 2026-2-6 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 有色金属小组 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 白银再次走低，铜价继续调整，昨日伦铜 3M 收盘跌 1.42%至 12855 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 101130 元/吨。LME 铜库存增加 1925 至 180575 吨，增量主要来自北美仓库，注销仓单比例下滑，Cash/3M 维持 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly due to positive sentiment, a tight copper - mine supply, and high growth in domestic refined copper supply [3][4]. - Aluminum prices are expected to gradually stabilize and rise as LME aluminum inventory is at a relatively low level and the US aluminum spot premium remains high, despite weak downstream demand [5][6]. - The lead industry's current situation is weak with rising inventories, but the higher - than - expected US ISM manufacturing PMI has alleviated some panic [8][9]. - Zinc prices are currently following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute increase. After the market sentiment stabilizes, the trading focus may return to the industrial logic [10][11][12]. - Tin prices are expected to maintain a long - term upward trend but will mainly operate in a wide - range shock in the short term due to the marginal relaxation of supply and demand and rising inventory [13][14]. - Nickel prices are expected to mainly operate in a wide - range shock in the short term as they face fundamental pressure and increasing domestic nickel inventory [16][17][18]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be strongly supported by off - season de - stocking, but due to large market fluctuations, it is recommended to be cautious and observe or take a light - position attempt [20][21]. - Alumina prices are recommended to be observed in the short term as the over - capacity pattern is difficult to change, and there are multiple dilemmas for continuous rebound [23][24]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to rise as the cost support is strong and the supply is shrinking [26][27]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to be supported in the short term due to supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply [29][30]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Market Information - The price of LME copper 3M rose 3.95% to $13,410/ton, and the main contract of SHFE copper closed at 105,180 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 1,450 to 176,125 tons, with the increase from Asian warehouses. The proportion of cancelled warrants decreased, and the Cash/3M discount narrowed. SHFE daily warehouse receipts increased by 0.05 to 159,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai and Guangdong regions was at a discount to the futures, and the spot import was at a loss of about 500 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap copper price difference widened to 3,280 yuan/ton [3]. Strategy Viewpoint - With the US planning to promote the commercial reserve of critical minerals and China strengthening the copper reserve expectation, along with better - than - expected manufacturing PMIs in the US and the Eurozone, the sentiment is positive. Although the new Fed Chairman's monetary policy is moderately hawkish, long - term prospects are not pessimistic. The copper - mine supply remains tight, and the domestic refined copper supply maintains high growth. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The reference range of the main SHFE copper contract is 102,000 - 108,000 yuan/ton, and the LME copper 3M is 13,000 - 13,800 dollars/ton [4]. Aluminum Market Information - The price of LME aluminum rose 1.39% to $3,099/ton, and the main contract of SHFE aluminum closed at 23,865 yuan/ton. The position of the weighted SHFE aluminum contract increased by 0.9 to 676,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased slightly to 151,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased, the aluminum rod processing fee fluctuated up, and the spot trading was dull. The spot in the East China region was at a discount of 220 yuan/ton to the futures, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 to 495,000 tons [5]. Strategy Viewpoint - Although domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories continue to accumulate and downstream demand is weak in the off - season, it does not constitute a major negative for prices. With the LME aluminum inventory at a relatively low level and the US aluminum spot premium remaining high, aluminum prices are strongly supported. In the context of eased market sentiment, aluminum prices are expected to gradually stabilize and rise. The reference range of the main SHFE aluminum contract is 23,500 - 24,200 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum 3M is 3,050 - 3,130 dollars/ton [6]. Lead Market Information - The SHFE lead index fell 0.26% to 16,670 yuan/ton on Tuesday, with a total unilateral trading position of 105,900 lots. The LME lead 3S rose by 13.5 to $1,973/ton, with a total position of 170,900 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingot and recycled refined lead was 16,450 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was at par. The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,975 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 33,400 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 204,100 tons [8]. Strategy Viewpoint - The visible inventory of lead ore has increased, high - price silver supports smelting profits, and the TC remains at a low level. The operating rate of primary lead smelters remains relatively high, and primary lead ingots are accumulating. The inventory of recycled waste materials has increased, the profit of recycled smelting has slightly decreased, but the operating rate of recycled lead has increased marginally. The operating rate of downstream battery enterprises has slightly decreased. Both smelter finished - product inventory and social inventory have increased, indicating a weak industrial situation. The US ISM manufacturing PMI on February 2nd was higher than expected, which alleviated some panic [9]. Zinc Market Information - The SHFE zinc index rose 1.91% to 24,993 yuan/ton on Tuesday, with a total unilateral trading position of 203,800 lots. The LME zinc 3S rose by 79.5 to $3,348/ton, with a total position of 235,700 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingot was 25,050 yuan/ton, and the basis in different regions varied. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 28,900 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 109,100 tons [10]. Strategy Viewpoint - In the industrial aspect, the inventory of zinc ore raw materials has increased, and the decline of zinc ore prices has slowed down. The accumulation of LME zinc ingot inventory has slowed down, the 3 - 15 month spread of LME zinc has increased, and the SHFE - LME ratio has declined again. The rise in overseas natural gas prices has raised concerns about the cost of European smelters. The new government in Bolivia has halted a zinc - mine development project. Currently, the zinc - copper ratio and zinc - aluminum ratio are at absolute lows. Zinc prices are still in the process of making up for the macro - attribute increase following the sector. After the market sentiment stabilizes, the trading focus may return to the industrial logic [11][12]. Tin Market Information - On February 3rd, the tin price rebounded after reaching the bottom. The main SHFE tin contract closed at 383,340 yuan/ton, down 2.37% from the previous day. The SHFE inventory decreased by 209 to 7,788 tons. The operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remained stable at a high level, while the refined tin output in Jiangxi was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. The downstream demand was still weak as the overall price was at a high level, and the terminal industry faced cost pressure [13]. Strategy Viewpoint - In the short term, the price of precious metals has stabilized and rebounded, and the tin price has also recovered. In the long term, the tin price will maintain an upward trend, but in the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a wide - range shock due to the marginal relaxation of supply and demand and the recent rise in inventory. It is recommended to observe. The reference range of the domestic main contract is 370,000 - 430,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin is 47,000 - 51,000 dollars/ton [14]. Nickel Market Information - On February 3rd, the nickel price stabilized and rebounded. The main SHFE nickel contract closed at 134,830 yuan/ton, up 4.0% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand remained stable, and the cost of nickel ore was stable, while the price of nickel iron fluctuated up [16]. Strategy Viewpoint - Although the price of precious metals has stabilized and the prices of the non - ferrous metal sector have generally recovered, the nickel price still faces fundamental pressure in the short term, and the upward space is expected to be limited. Due to the high premium of refined nickel over nickel iron and the conversion of nickel iron to high - grade nickel matte, the output of refined nickel in January is expected to increase significantly. The domestic nickel inventory has increased significantly for three consecutive weeks, which significantly drags down the nickel price. It is expected that the nickel price will mainly operate in a wide - range shock. The reference range of the SHFE nickel price is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel 3M contract is 16,000 - 18,000 dollars/ton [17][18]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The MMLC lithium carbonate spot index closed at 146,173 yuan in the evening session, up 3.55% from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 5,050 yuan (+3.57%), and the industrial - grade increased by 3.46%. The LC2605 contract closed at 148,100 yuan, up 11.82% from the previous day [20]. Strategy Viewpoint - On Tuesday, the pessimistic sentiment in the commodity market eased, and the market rebounded significantly. The expectation of fundamental improvement in lithium carbonate remains unchanged. Affected by the Spring Festival in February, the production of the cathode segment is expected to decrease by only about 10% month - on - month. After the short - term price risk is released, with the low inventory of downstream enterprises, the bargaining power for pre - festival raw material procurement is low. The off - season de - stocking is expected to strongly support the lithium price. Due to large market fluctuations, it is recommended to be cautious and observe or take a light - position attempt. The reference range of the GZCE lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 137,000 - 156,000 yuan/ton [21]. Alumina Market Information - On February 3rd, 2026, the alumina index rose 1.31% to 2,808 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 531,600 lots, down 27,000 lots from the previous day. The Shandong spot price was 2,555 yuan/ton, at a discount of 254 yuan/ton to the main contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price was $304/ton, and the import loss was 78 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.72 to 189,400 tons. The CIF price in Guinea remained at $61/ton, and that in Australia decreased by 2 to $58/ton [23]. Strategy Viewpoint - Workers at a mine in Guinea's Boké region have launched an indefinite strike. Currently, production and shipping are normal, and the impact needs to be observed. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The market's expectation of supply - contraction policies has increased, but there are still three dilemmas for continuous rebound. It is recommended to observe in the short term. The reference range of the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,700 - 2,950 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to domestic supply - contraction policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [24]. Stainless Steel Market Information - The main stainless - steel contract closed at 13,585 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, up 1.23% (+165). The unilateral position was 240,600 lots, down 11,405 lots from the previous day. The spot prices in different markets varied, and the raw material prices were mostly stable. The futures inventory increased by 4,641 to 43,579 tons, and the social inventory increased to 904,500 tons, with the 300 - series inventory increasing by 2.86% [26]. Strategy Viewpoint - Last week, market fluctuations increased significantly. The sharp decline in precious - metal prices on Friday dragged down the non - ferrous metal sector, impacting market sentiment. As the Spring Festival approaches, the purchasing enthusiasm of the middle and lower reaches is low, and the market is in a wait - and - see mood. The supply side has significantly contracted. The cost support of the industrial chain is still strong, and the price has strong support below. The bullish view remains unchanged, and the reference range of the main contract is 13,000 - 14,000 yuan/ton [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - The price of cast aluminum alloy stabilized and rebounded. The main AD2603 contract closed at 22,215 yuan/ton, up 1.72%. The weighted contract position increased to 23,900 lots, the trading volume was 23,000 lots, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 0.08 to 66,900 tons. The price difference between the AL2603 and AD2603 contracts widened. The average price of domestic mainstream ADC12 decreased, and the price of imported ADC12 decreased by 300 yuan/ton. The domestic three - place inventory increased by 0.01 to 41,400 tons [29]. Strategy Viewpoint - The cost of cast aluminum alloy has stabilized. Although the demand is relatively average, the price is supported in the short term due to continuous supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply [30].