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德康农牧(02419.HK)三重Α共振:轻资产、低成本、高弹性铸就德康农牧周期突围利刃!
Ge Long Hui· 2025-07-07 10:13
Industry Overview - The pig farming sector is entering a new cycle due to the simultaneous decline in pig production capacity and the turning point in chicken prices, with a stronger supply-demand imbalance leading to potential price drops and reduced profits for farmers [1] - The supply side shows steady growth in market pig supply and increasing fat pig inventory, while the demand side is currently weak due to the summer off-season, resulting in a challenging pricing environment [1] - Policies are being implemented to optimize production capacity, including a reduction in the target for breeding sows by 1 million to 39.5 million and stricter environmental regulations [1] Chicken Industry Insights - The lowest point for yellow chicken prices may have passed, with expectations for marginal recovery in the second half of the year due to improving consumer demand and seasonal consumption patterns [2] - The current yellow chicken production capacity is at a low level, and the price elasticity is primarily influenced by demand-side changes, with potential for price increases in 2025 [2] - The industry is facing challenges with many producers experiencing losses, which may limit their willingness to invest in new stock, while recent bankruptcies among top companies could further reduce supply [2] Company Analysis Pig Farming Business - The company is integrating farmer resources and innovatively entrusting the breeding of sows to farm owners, which enhances farmer participation and allows for rapid expansion of output [3] - The company has developed a competitive breeding system that reduces the age at which pigs are ready for market by 12 days and lowers feed conversion ratios, resulting in significant cost advantages [3] - Through precise management practices, the company has achieved a reduction in feed consumption per sow and improved feed formulation, maintaining industry-leading cost levels despite unfavorable raw material conditions [3] Chicken Business - The company has established a leading research and development system in yellow chicken breeding, with a diverse genetic resource pool that meets market demands [4] - The company's market share in yellow chicken has doubled from 1.3% in 2018 to 2.6% in 2024, driven by an optimized product matrix [4] - The company is focusing on developing medium and slow-growing chicken products to align with changing consumer preferences and improve product quality [4] Slaughtering Business - The company is expanding its slaughtering and processing operations to create a comprehensive food ecosystem, leveraging vertical integration to enhance efficiency [5] - Collaborations with leading international firms are being utilized to adopt advanced technologies and management practices in food manufacturing [5] Investment Outlook - The new cycle logic in the pig farming sector is strengthening, with expectations of production capacity fluctuations and clearer cyclical trends [6] - The company is projected to achieve an average profit of approximately 300 RMB per pig, supporting a market valuation of 330 billion RMB based on expected output [6] - Given the anticipated market conditions, the company's stock price could see significant upside potential, with a target price exceeding 140 RMB, translating to over 154 HKD [6]
农林牧渔行业2025年中期投资策略:关注养殖周期底部回升,看景气赛道成长性变化
Dongguan Securities· 2025-06-17 09:20
Group 1 - The SW Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery industry rose by 5.02% from January to May 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 7.43 percentage points [13][14] - Most sub-sectors recorded positive returns, with only planting and fishery sectors showing negative returns of -1.58% and -0.07% respectively [14] - Approximately 70% of stocks in the industry achieved positive returns, with three stocks increasing over 100%, the highest being Yizhi Magic Yam at 209.66% [15] Group 2 - The overall PB of the SW Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery industry increased from a low of 2.31 times at the beginning of the year to 2.68 times, with a current PB of approximately 2.66 times as of June 13, 2025, reflecting a 15% recovery from the low [20] - The pig breeding sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in supply, with the number of breeding sows reaching 40.38 million heads by the end of April 2025, slightly above the normal holding capacity [21][23] - The average price of pigs as of June 13, 2025, was 14.04 yuan/kg, down 10.8% from the beginning of the year and 26.1% year-on-year, with expectations for a price rebound in Q4 2025 [27] Group 3 - The total feed production in China is expected to rebound in 2025 after a decline in 2024, with a total production of 49.2 million tons in the first two months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.6% [54] - The average price of corn in China rose from approximately 2,122 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to over 2,400 yuan/ton, reflecting a 13.3% increase [56] - The pet health market is anticipated to grow rapidly, with significant expansion potential in the domestic market for pet food and supplies, benefiting quality domestic leaders [5][6]