Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating [1][2][6][8] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February 2026, the configuration suggestion is to dig for opportunities in the pro - cyclical market, emphasizing both the chemical and agricultural sectors. The agricultural sector is expected to have price - rising prospects due to emerging economies' industrialization and geopolitical situations. Currently, funds are under - allocating to the agricultural sector, and the agricultural sector, with its mid - cap blue - chip characteristics, is expected to resonate with the CSI 500 Index [2][8] - In 2025, the agricultural sector had a lackluster performance with significant structural differentiation. Pig farming was under pressure, while beef cattle farming showed good performance. Fund managers actively adjusted the sector's structure and made left - hand side layouts in the breeding sector [6][15] - For 2026, fund managers are optimistic about the agricultural sector, believing there are structural opportunities and the possibility of a reversal, especially in the breeding sector such as pig and beef cattle farming [6][20] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2026 February Configuration Suggestion - Configuration strategy: Focus on the chemical and agricultural sectors in the pro - cyclical market. The agricultural sector is favored because of price - rising opportunities from emerging economies' industrialization and geopolitical situations. Currently, active equity mutual funds allocate less than 0.5% to the agricultural sector, and the scale proportion of agricultural - related ETFs is also low. The agricultural and forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors, with mid - cap blue - chip features, may resonate with the CSI 500 Index [2][8] - Recommended funds: Suggest paying attention to funds such as YinHua Agriculture Industry A, Agriculture Select LOF, etc. YinHua Agriculture Industry A holds the most agricultural - sector stocks and mainly allocates to the breeding sector, with a high proportion of holdings in pig and poultry breeding companies [2][9][10] 2025Q4 Quarterly Report on Agricultural Fund Core Viewpoints 2025 Agricultural Sector Market - Overall performance: The agricultural sector had a lackluster performance with structural differentiation. Although the agricultural index rose slightly in Q4, sub - sectors like breeding and feed declined, while the agro - chemical sector performed well due to supply - side adjustments [6][15] - Key sub - sectors: Pig farming was under pressure as pig prices hovered at the bottom, and the industry entered a new cycle of capacity reduction. Price recovery is expected in the second half of 2026. Beef cattle farming was outstanding, with beef prices rebounding significantly from the bottom, large - scale and long - term capacity reduction, and good stock price performance. Consumption - related sectors were sluggish [6][15][17] 2025 Agricultural Sector Configuration - Configuration ideas: Fund managers actively adjusted the sector's structure and made left - hand side layouts in the breeding sector. They moderately increased holdings in leading enterprises during the trough of the breeding industry and concentrated their allocations on excellent companies in various sub - fields [17] - Fund types: Agricultural theme funds continued to focus on the breeding industry chain and adjusted their positions according to the cycle. Some general consumption funds slightly increased their allocations to the agricultural sector with low current valuations in Q4 [18][19] 2026 Agricultural Sector Outlook - Overall outlook: Fund managers are optimistic about the agricultural sector in 2026, believing there are structural opportunities and the possibility of a reversal. They emphasize the price - rising foundation at a low base and the reversal potential after capacity reduction. They are particularly optimistic about the upward cycle of the beef cattle/animal husbandry industry [20] - Pig farming opportunity: The capacity reduction that started in the second half of 2025, combined with policy constraints and deep losses, will enable the pig farming sector to reach a cycle configuration point or price reversal in 2026, especially in the second half of the year [20][21]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the livestock industry, specifically focusing on the pig, chicken, and beef markets in China for the years 2025 and 2026 [1][3][14]. Core Insights and Arguments Pig Farming Sector - The pig farming sector is expected to experience significant impacts from the 2025 production capacity policies, leading to a slowdown in profit growth for leading companies and a downward adjustment of 2026 output targets [1][2]. - In 2025, the average price of pigs peaked at 16 RMB/kg but fell to 11 RMB/kg by the fourth quarter, indicating a trend of increasing supply due to rising breeding sow inventory [2]. - For 2026, it is anticipated that pig prices will continue to decline in the first half, with a focus on cost control and cash flow management being critical for companies [3]. Chicken Industry - The white chicken sector has faced two years of downturn, but the exit of small and medium enterprises is expected to stabilize the industry, leading to improved profitability and dividends ahead of the pig market [1][6]. - Leading companies in the white chicken sector, such as Shengnong, Hefeng, and Yisheng, have maintained profitability during price declines, with improved gross margins expected to yield significant profit elasticity when prices recover [10]. - The yellow chicken market, despite expansion by companies like Lihua and Wens, is projected to perform better in 2026, with price recovery anticipated in the second half of 2025 [12]. Beef Market - The beef market is showing signs of recovery since late 2025, with expectations of increased prices in 2026 due to reduced supply from exiting smallholders [3][13]. - The lack of publicly listed companies focused on beef cattle farming in China presents investment opportunities primarily in Hong Kong-listed dairy companies [3][13]. Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on two types of companies in 2026: those with significant cost improvements, such as Muyuan Foods, and growth-oriented companies like Tiankang Biological, which are pursuing growth through acquisitions [1][5]. - Attention should also be given to fluctuations in agricultural product prices and production metrics such as survival rates and PSY (Production per Sow per Year) [5]. Additional Important Insights - The white chicken industry is currently facing challenges, with prices at historical lows, but the ongoing exit of smaller players is expected to lay the groundwork for future recovery [7][9]. - The overall outlook for the livestock sector in 2026 is more optimistic than in 2025, with potential for price recovery in white chicken and market expansion in yellow chicken [14][15]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the livestock industry's current state and future outlook.

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for both the new economy and the livestock cycle, indicating a favorable economic environment for these sectors [6]. Industry Analysis - The report titled "New Economy and Livestock Cycle, Mid-Year Prosperity is Good" highlights the resilience and growth potential in the agricultural sector, particularly in new consumption trends related to pets and the livestock industry [6]. - The analysis suggests that the current economic conditions are conducive to growth, with a focus on identifying opportunities within the pet consumption market and the post-cycle of livestock farming [3][6]. Research Contributions - The authors, Wang Yanjun and Lin Yidan, have contributed to the understanding of the agricultural sector through their annual report, which aims to uncover the prosperity within the industry [3][6].

Industry Overview - The pig farming sector is entering a new cycle due to the simultaneous decline in pig production capacity and the turning point in chicken prices, with a stronger supply-demand imbalance leading to potential price drops and reduced profits for farmers [1] - The supply side shows steady growth in market pig supply and increasing fat pig inventory, while the demand side is currently weak due to the summer off-season, resulting in a challenging pricing environment [1] - Policies are being implemented to optimize production capacity, including a reduction in the target for breeding sows by 1 million to 39.5 million and stricter environmental regulations [1] Chicken Industry Insights - The lowest point for yellow chicken prices may have passed, with expectations for marginal recovery in the second half of the year due to improving consumer demand and seasonal consumption patterns [2] - The current yellow chicken production capacity is at a low level, and the price elasticity is primarily influenced by demand-side changes, with potential for price increases in 2025 [2] - The industry is facing challenges with many producers experiencing losses, which may limit their willingness to invest in new stock, while recent bankruptcies among top companies could further reduce supply [2] Company Analysis Pig Farming Business - The company is integrating farmer resources and innovatively entrusting the breeding of sows to farm owners, which enhances farmer participation and allows for rapid expansion of output [3] - The company has developed a competitive breeding system that reduces the age at which pigs are ready for market by 12 days and lowers feed conversion ratios, resulting in significant cost advantages [3] - Through precise management practices, the company has achieved a reduction in feed consumption per sow and improved feed formulation, maintaining industry-leading cost levels despite unfavorable raw material conditions [3] Chicken Business - The company has established a leading research and development system in yellow chicken breeding, with a diverse genetic resource pool that meets market demands [4] - The company's market share in yellow chicken has doubled from 1.3% in 2018 to 2.6% in 2024, driven by an optimized product matrix [4] - The company is focusing on developing medium and slow-growing chicken products to align with changing consumer preferences and improve product quality [4] Slaughtering Business - The company is expanding its slaughtering and processing operations to create a comprehensive food ecosystem, leveraging vertical integration to enhance efficiency [5] - Collaborations with leading international firms are being utilized to adopt advanced technologies and management practices in food manufacturing [5] Investment Outlook - The new cycle logic in the pig farming sector is strengthening, with expectations of production capacity fluctuations and clearer cyclical trends [6] - The company is projected to achieve an average profit of approximately 300 RMB per pig, supporting a market valuation of 330 billion RMB based on expected output [6] - Given the anticipated market conditions, the company's stock price could see significant upside potential, with a target price exceeding 140 RMB, translating to over 154 HKD [6]

Group 1 - The SW Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery industry rose by 5.02% from January to May 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 7.43 percentage points [13][14] - Most sub-sectors recorded positive returns, with only planting and fishery sectors showing negative returns of -1.58% and -0.07% respectively [14] - Approximately 70% of stocks in the industry achieved positive returns, with three stocks increasing over 100%, the highest being Yizhi Magic Yam at 209.66% [15] Group 2 - The overall PB of the SW Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery industry increased from a low of 2.31 times at the beginning of the year to 2.68 times, with a current PB of approximately 2.66 times as of June 13, 2025, reflecting a 15% recovery from the low [20] - The pig breeding sector is expected to see a gradual recovery in supply, with the number of breeding sows reaching 40.38 million heads by the end of April 2025, slightly above the normal holding capacity [21][23] - The average price of pigs as of June 13, 2025, was 14.04 yuan/kg, down 10.8% from the beginning of the year and 26.1% year-on-year, with expectations for a price rebound in Q4 2025 [27] Group 3 - The total feed production in China is expected to rebound in 2025 after a decline in 2024, with a total production of 49.2 million tons in the first two months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.6% [54] - The average price of corn in China rose from approximately 2,122 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to over 2,400 yuan/ton, reflecting a 13.3% increase [56] - The pet health market is anticipated to grow rapidly, with significant expansion potential in the domestic market for pet food and supplies, benefiting quality domestic leaders [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The livestock industry is facing significant challenges, with prices for various meats, including pork, chicken, and lamb, declining due to oversupply and weak consumer demand [2][4][10]. Group 1: Price Trends - Pork prices have dropped below 7 yuan per kilogram, marking a new low for the year, and while the decline has eased somewhat after government intervention, the outlook remains bleak [2]. - Egg prices have fallen below 3 yuan, leading to losses for some producers, while wholesale chicken prices have decreased by 2.3% year-on-year [4]. - Lamb prices have also declined, with a 0.5% year-on-year drop, although beef prices have seen a slight increase of 3.5% [4]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The livestock sector is experiencing oversupply, particularly in the pig and poultry markets, with pig production remaining above 40 million heads for 11 consecutive months [4][7]. - The increase in production capacity is attributed to previous high prices that incentivized farmers to expand their operations, leading to significant supply pressure [4][7]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - Improvements in breeding and farming techniques have led to increased meat production, with optimized breeding capabilities resulting in stable pork supply despite a reduction in production capacity [7]. - Similar advancements in sheep farming have also contributed to a surplus in lamb supply [7]. Group 4: Import Factors - While imports of pork and poultry have a limited impact, beef imports have significantly increased due to lower prices abroad compared to domestic production costs [8]. - The rising availability of cheaper imported beef, coupled with declining prices of pork and poultry, has constrained domestic beef demand [8]. Group 5: Consumer Demand - Consumer demand for meat is recovering slowly, with overall growth in personal consumption being limited due to economic constraints [10]. - The lack of timely demand growth exacerbates supply pressures, making it difficult for the livestock industry to reduce excess supply [11].