更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 2026年,周期怎么看 20260104 摘要 Q&A 目前建筑建材行业的整体情况如何?有哪些值得关注的投资机会? 从目前跟踪的企业经营情况来看,建筑建材行业订单总体保持相对充分,但资金 仍是制约企业产值释放的核心因素。尽管国家启动了一些重大项目,但相对于庞 大的基础建设存量,这些投资难以带来显著成长性。因此,对于传统基建领域, 我们推荐高股息、低估值序列的公司,如中国建筑、四川路桥、隧道股份和中材 国际等。这些公司核心竞争力较强,经营稳定,分红股息率较高。 此外,一些 争 狗 - 传统基建领域推荐高股息、低估值公司,如中国建筑、四川路桥等,因其 . 核心竞争力强、经营稳定。同时,关注积极转型新科技、新产业的中小企 业,如正东设计、华阳国际等,可能迎来突破。 消费建材领域,头部公司市占率提升,经营趋稳健,建议左侧布局已证明 ● 核心竞争力的公司,如东方雨虹、兔宝宝等。关注 AI 产业链兴起需求增 加的高端产品公司,如中国巨石、中材科技。 2025 年元旦假期跨区域人流增长,海南离岛免税销售额同比大增 129%, . 客单价增长 43%。预计 2025年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the importance of prioritizing people's livelihoods, particularly focusing on stabilizing employment for college graduates as a direct reflection of this commitment [1] Group 1: Employment Stability for College Graduates - Stabilizing employment for college graduates is crucial for enhancing the quality of life and ensuring the future talent pool for the nation [1] - The increasing enrollment rate in higher education has led to over ten million graduates each year, raising demands for job market capacity and structural alignment [1][2] - The resilience and potential of the Chinese economy remain strong, with new industries and business models emerging, creating opportunities for graduates [1][2] Group 2: Expanding Job Demand and Opportunities - Expanding job demand and exploring new job growth areas are essential for stabilizing employment [2] - Policies such as tax reductions, financial support for industries with strong employment absorption capacity, and incentives for innovation and entrepreneurship are necessary to lower employment costs for businesses [2] - Emerging sectors like the digital economy, green economy, and silver economy are creating numerous job opportunities suitable for college graduates [2] Group 3: Enhancing Talent Supply and Market Demand Matching - Improving the matching between talent supply and market demand is key to stabilizing employment [3] - Higher education institutions should proactively align with economic and social needs, enhancing practical and forward-looking course offerings [3] - Collaboration among educational institutions, human resources departments, and businesses is vital to provide quality internships and training programs for graduates [3] Group 4: Comprehensive Employment Services and Support - A detailed and continuous employment service network is necessary to support graduates throughout their job search [4] - Digital tools have significantly improved service efficiency, enabling online recruitment and guidance activities [4] - Special attention should be given to graduates from disadvantaged backgrounds, ensuring targeted assistance and support [4] Group 5: Collaborative Efforts for Employment Promotion - Promoting employment for college graduates requires a collaborative effort from government, educational institutions, businesses, and society [5] - Governments must take responsibility for employment promotion, while educational institutions should focus on improving talent cultivation quality [5] - Businesses are encouraged to fulfill their social responsibilities by providing quality job opportunities and training platforms [5]

我们先讨论一下2026年股市。上证指数自1990年推出至今已有30多年历史，就像1990年出生的人如今已36岁一样，活了36岁的上证综指今年也是迎来了历史 上第三次站上4000点。站上4000点后，不少投资者都会过来问，2026年股市的上涨征程最高可以达到多少点。所以今天我们先花点时间探讨这个问题，因为 即便科技板块的行情，可能也离不开股市整体大环境的支撑。 股市的走势会受到很多方面的影响，大家可能觉得基本面最为重要，但实际上，也不是只有基本面才能决定整个市场，除了基本面之外，资金面、情绪面、 政策面都可能会对市场产生作用。目前已有不少卖方分析师在推2026年的年度策略报告，观点有乐观、非常乐观，也有中性一点的。几个较为乐观的分析师 认为，2026年股市点位值得期待。我们无法猜测具体的点位，但可以为大家梳理一下背后的逻辑。 从基本面来看，不少卖方认为基本面的核心驱动力可能来自补库存。大家可以参考PPT上的图表，无论是中游制造业的资本开支还是在建工程，它们的周期 现在可能正处在底部向上走的阶段，有望出现补库存行情。这意味着基本面上将出现周期性改善，可以为经济提供一定的增长动力。目前政治局会议已召 开，中央经济工 ...

Core Insights - The mechanical industry is showing signs of recovery after three years of stagnation, with nominal GDP growth beginning to rise since Q4 2024, positively impacting the mechanical sector [17] - Domestic demand is weak while external demand is strong, particularly in the engineering machinery sector, where exports are gradually increasing due to improvements in the European and American markets [17][19] - The investment landscape is shifting towards overseas expansion and new industries, with a focus on automation and sectors supported by government subsidies [17][19] Industry Overview - The mechanical industry is experiencing a dual trend of weak domestic demand and strong external demand, with engineering machinery showing signs of recovery but still facing a fragile foundation [17] - Domestic investment in real estate continues to decline, with a 14.7% year-on-year drop in real estate development investment from January to October 2025, while infrastructure investment growth has also slowed significantly [19][23] - The overall investment environment is expected to stabilize as the gap between domestic and foreign demand narrows, with structural opportunities in infrastructure projects like water conservancy and high-standard farmland construction [23] 2026 Domestic Outlook - The investment gap is expected to narrow, with infrastructure investment declining from high levels and real estate investment under pressure, leading to a focus on structural opportunities [19][23] - Manufacturing investment is crucial, with the core focus on PPI and inventory levels, as domestic manufacturing orders remain sluggish [26][28] - The expectation is that PPI will improve in 2026, driven by factors such as reduced internal competition and improved domestic demand [28] 2026 Overseas Outlook - The downward trend in interest rates is a significant macro narrative, with the U.S. and Europe entering a phase of fiscal expansion, which is expected to benefit Chinese manufacturing [29][38] - The global inventory levels are at historical lows, which could lead to a new investment cycle as demand recovers [35] - The second wave of globalization for Chinese manufacturing is anticipated, driven by fiscal expansion in the U.S. and Europe, and a recovery in industrial product demand [38][40] Stock Selection Strategy - The stock selection strategy for 2026 focuses on two main themes: benefiting from overseas expansion and new industries, particularly in sectors like engineering machinery and specialized equipment [44] - Key sectors include engineering machinery, shipbuilding, and high-tech equipment, with a focus on companies that are expected to maintain stable performance and low valuations [44] - Emerging industries such as AI equipment, lithium battery production, and semiconductor manufacturing are highlighted as areas of significant opportunity [44][45] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and China Shipbuilding, which are expected to perform well in the current market environment [7] - Companies in the AI and semiconductor sectors, such as Longchuan Technology and Zhongwei Company, are also recommended due to their growth potential [7] - Future-oriented assets like humanoid robots and controllable nuclear fusion are noted as areas to watch for significant industry changes [7][45]

Core Viewpoint - Suning Universal is actively focusing on high-tech industries with broad market prospects and is continuously conducting related work [2] Group 1 - The company is responding to investor inquiries regarding its strategic focus [2] - The emphasis is on new industries and sectors that have significant technological content [2] - The company aims to explore opportunities in markets with promising future potential [2]

Group 1 - The core announcement is the initiation of deep reforms for the ChiNext board, aimed at enhancing the inclusiveness and coverage of the multi-tiered market system [1][4] - The reforms will establish listing standards that better align with the characteristics of emerging industries and innovative enterprises, providing more precise and inclusive financial services [4] - The ChiNext market currently has 1,389 stocks with a total market capitalization approaching 18 trillion yuan [5] Group 2 - The first batch of new registered companies will be listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board (STAR Market) on October 28, indicating the accelerating effects of recent reforms [6][8] - The STAR Market has seen significant growth, with a total market capitalization nearing 10 trillion yuan and notable companies like SMIC and Cambrian leading in market value [7][8] Group 3 - The North Exchange (北交所) aims to continuously promote high-quality development, focusing on serving innovative small and medium-sized enterprises [9][10] - The multi-tiered capital market system in China includes the main board, STAR Market, ChiNext, North Exchange, New Third Board, and regional equity trading markets, showcasing a clear hierarchical structure [9][10] Group 4 - The release of the "23 Opinions" on strengthening the protection of small and medium investors aims to create a fairer trading environment and enhance investor protection throughout the capital market reform process [12][13] - Key measures include optimizing the new stock issuance pricing mechanism and enhancing the regulation of margin trading [12][13] Group 5 - The value of Chinese assets is becoming more apparent, with international funds flowing into emerging markets exceeding 150 billion USD in the first nine months of the year [14] - The new industries and business models, such as artificial intelligence and biomedicine, are driving significant changes in production methods and resource allocation [14]

Group 1 - The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference opened in Beijing with the theme "Innovation, Transformation, and Reshaping Global Financial Development" [1] - The Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Wu Qing, announced the initiation of reforms for the Growth Enterprise Market (GEM) [1] - New listing standards will be established to better align with the characteristics of emerging fields and future industries, providing more precise and inclusive financial services for innovative enterprises [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, Wu Qing, emphasized the need for larger-scale patient capital investment and a more flexible and inclusive financing environment to better support the formation of innovative capital and the cultivation of innovative momentum in new industries and new business formats [1] Group 1 - New industries and new business formats require significant capital investment [1] - A flexible and inclusive financing environment is essential for supporting innovation [1] - The focus is on fostering innovative capital formation and momentum [1]

Core Viewpoint - In the first nine months of this year, international capital inflows into emerging markets exceeded $150 billion, highlighting the increasing revaluation of Chinese assets such as A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1] Group 1: Capital Market Dynamics - The chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the need for a more flexible and inclusive financing environment to support high-investment, high-risk, and long-return-cycle new industries, particularly in artificial intelligence and biomedicine [1] - The evolving global landscape and technological innovation trends are creating new demands and expectations for the development and functionality of capital markets [1] Group 2: Reform and Market Competitiveness - Continuous deepening of reforms is necessary to enhance the inclusiveness and adaptability of market systems, which will improve market attractiveness and competitiveness [1] - The ability to seize opportunities in an uncertain environment is crucial for future success [1]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) will initiate reforms to the ChiNext board, aiming to establish listing standards that better align with the characteristics of emerging industries and innovative enterprises in the future [1] Group 1 - The CSRC's chairman, Wu Qing, announced the reforms during the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting [1] - The reforms will provide more precise and inclusive financial services for new industries, new business formats, and new technology enterprises [1]