1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market cooled yesterday, and the prices of finished products continued to fluctuate. The majority of FOMC voters this year are more inclined to delay interest rate cuts until after July, and attention should be paid to the impact of interest rates on the global environment. China's manufacturing PMI has slightly increased, and the economy is showing positive signs. The off - season demand remains weak, and the inventories are at relatively healthy levels. There are no obvious contradictions in the static fundamentals. Future attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Politburo meeting in July, the recovery of terminal demand, and the cost - side support for finished product prices [3]. - Although the "Israel - Iran conflict" has eased and crude oil prices have fallen, the sentiment in the domestic commodity market, especially the black sector, has not significantly declined. In the short term, the improvement in sentiment continues, but from a fundamental perspective, the industry still faces an oversupply situation, future demand is expected to weaken, and there is room for cost reduction, so the downward pressure on prices remains [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3003 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.200%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 6393 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 48103 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3136 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.416%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 586 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 3081 lots [2]. - **Spot Market**: The aggregated rebar price in Tianjin was 3150 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Lecong remained unchanged at 3180 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai, it was also unchanged at 3200 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The apparent demand for rebar was basically the same as last week, and the increase in production slowed down the de - stocking pace. The production of hot - rolled coils decreased slightly, and the inventory started to accumulate slightly. Overall, the off - season demand remained weak, and the inventories were at relatively healthy levels [3]. Iron Ore - **Futures Market**: The main contract (I2509) of iron ore closed at 708.50 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.98% (-7.00), and the positions decreased by 13897 lots to 65.49 million lots. The weighted positions were 107.50 million lots [5]. - **Spot Market**: The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 705 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 37.93 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.08% [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The recent iron ore shipments decreased, and the near - term arrivals also declined. The daily average pig iron production was 242.29 tons. The terminal demand for five major steel products decreased slightly. The port throughput and port inventory increased, while the steel mills' imported ore inventory decreased slightly. In the short term, iron ore prices will fluctuate widely [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Manganese Silicon**: On July 1, the main contract (SM509) of manganese silicon continued to decline in a narrow range, closing down 0.32% at 5624 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5600 yuan/ton, with a premium of 166 yuan/ton over the futures price. In the short term, it may continue to fluctuate or rebound slightly, but there is still a risk of price decline [8][10]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main contract (SF509) of ferrosilicon gapped down and broke the upward trend since June, closing down 1.38% at 5270 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5350 yuan/ton, with a premium of 80 yuan/ton over the futures price. In the short term, its trend has weakened again, and there is a risk of further price decline [8][10]. Industrial Silicon - **Futures Market**: On July 1, affected by rumors of production resumption, the main contract (SI2509) of industrial silicon closed down 3.66% at 7765 yuan/ton [14]. - **Spot Market**: The price of 553 non - oxygenated industrial silicon in East China was 8200 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 435 yuan/ton over the futures main contract. The price of 421 was 8800 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged, with a premium of 235 yuan/ton over the futures main contract [14]. - **Fundamentals**: The industrial silicon market is still facing over - supply and insufficient demand. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see rather than blindly buy at the bottom. During the price rebound, it is advisable to hedge at an appropriate position [14][15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price in Shahe was 1130 yuan, up 4 yuan from the previous day, and in Central China, it was 1030 yuan, remaining unchanged. As of June 26, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 69.216 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 0.671 million heavy boxes (-0.96%) from the previous period, and an increase of 12.39% year - on - year. It is expected that the futures price will be weak in the medium term [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price was 1190 yuan, down 10 yuan from the previous day. As of June 30, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7688 million tons, an increase of 0.0019 million tons (0.11%) from Thursday. The demand for soda ash continued to decline. Although the supply - demand margin improved slightly, the medium - term supply was still loose, and the inventory pressure was large. It is expected that the futures price will be weak [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The overall fundamental contradictions of iron ore are not significant. With the easing of overseas trade frictions and market expectations for stimulus policies, iron ore is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to take short - term long positions with a light position [2]. - Economic downward pressure still supports gold. The downside space of gold is limited, and it is advisable to maintain a slightly bullish view on gold's medium - term high - level fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the Russia - Ukraine conflict negotiations and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [2]. - The supply of coking coal remains relatively stable, and demand is high. The market expects coke prices to continue rising, but terminal inventories are low. Short - term coking coal prices are expected to fluctuate [4]. - The cost of steel provides some support, but the lack of sustained demand restricts the rebound of steel prices. With external uncertainties, steel prices may fluctuate upward in the short term [4]. - The supply and demand of live pigs are in a continuous game. Short - term prices are adjusted, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 contract on dips. In the medium - to - long term, prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [5]. - The decline of the external market has stopped and rebounded, and the increase in purchases supports the palm oil market. However, the downstream demand is weak, and short - term prices are expected to fluctuate. High - selling and low - buying strategies are recommended [5]. - The auction of soybeans by protein factories is active, and the reduction of market surplus grains boosts market confidence. However, auctions may curb rapid price increases in the short term. Soybean prices are expected to continue to fluctuate strongly [6]. - The marginal loosening of the capital side is beneficial to the bond market, but the market still has a wait - and - see attitude towards the fundamentals. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw [8]. - Trump's remarks on reducing tariffs on Chinese goods boost risk assets, but the fundamentals of silver are bearish. Before the Fed cuts interest rates, silver is unlikely to have a trending market [8]. - Concerns about the implementation of compensatory production cuts by OPEC + have led to a decline in crude oil prices. Short - term trading is recommended [9]. - The demand for PTA is under pressure, and it follows the fluctuations of crude oil. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [9]. - The international raw material prices of natural rubber have fallen, and the tire start - up rate has declined. The market support is weak, and it is expected to continue the weak consolidation trend [10]. - The cost of methanol is stable, and the domestic methanol start - up is expected to remain high. The downstream demand is decreasing, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11][12]. - The downstream demand for soda ash is tepid, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [12]. - The supply of caustic soda is abundant, and the downstream demand is weak. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [13]. Summaries by Variety Iron Ore - From April 14 - 20, 2025, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1,218.8 million tons, a decrease of 26.3 million tons from the previous period. The inventory is slightly lower than the average level since the beginning of the year [2]. Gold - On April 23, local time, the Fed's "Beige Book" showed that economic activity has hardly changed, but there is widespread uncertainty in international trade policies, and the prospects in multiple regions have significantly deteriorated [2]. Coking Coal - This week, the operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants in the country was 63.01%, an increase of 1.11% from the previous period; the daily average output was 53.44 million tons, a decrease of 1.34 million tons; the raw coal inventory was 271.33 million tons, a decrease of 2.58 million tons; the clean coal inventory was 181.68 million tons, an increase of 0.35 million tons [4]. Rebar - On April 23, the domestic steel market fluctuated strongly. The ex - factory price of billets in Qian'an, Tangshan increased by 50 to 2,990 yuan/ton. One steel mill raised the ex - factory price of construction steel by 20 yuan/ton. The average price of 20mm grade - III earthquake - resistant rebar in 31 major cities across the country was 3,323 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [4]. Live Pigs - On April 23, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 118.47, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 119.43. As of 14:00, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.99 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.4% from the previous day; the price of eggs was 8.34 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1% from the previous day [5]. Palm Oil - From July 1, 2024, to April 20, 2025, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2024/25 period were 2.3 million tons, compared with 2.87 million tons in the same period of the previous year. China and India's demand for palm oil may increase due to its continuous discount compared with soybean oil [5]. Soybeans - As of the end of the 16th week of 2025, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 4.251 million tons, an increase of 625,000 tons from the previous week. The coastal inventory was 3.768 million tons, an increase of 584,000 tons from the previous week [6]. Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - term varieties declined collectively. The overnight variety declined by 8.3 BP to 1.626%; the 7 - day variety declined by 2.6 BP to 1.644%; the 14 - day variety declined by 2.8 BP to 1.772%; the 1 - month variety declined by 0.5 BP to 1.749% [7][8]. Silver - Trump said that the current tariffs on Chinese goods in the US are too high and are expected to be significantly reduced. He also said that he has no intention of firing the Fed Chairman [8]. Crude Oil - The EIA report showed that in the week ending April 18, the EIA crude oil inventory in the US was 244,000 barrels, the gasoline inventory was - 4.476 million barrels, the domestic crude oil production decreased by 200 barrels to 23.46 million barrels per day, and the EIA crude oil production implied demand data was 19.01 million barrels per day. Kazakhstan will prioritize national interests in determining oil production levels [9]. PTA - In the week of April 22, the PTA load decreased to 75.4%; the polyester load increased slightly to 93.8%, and the increase in the bottle - chip load made up for the reduction in the production of filament and staple fiber [9]. Rubber - Thailand is gradually transitioning to the tapping season, and production is expected to increase significantly in mid - May. Vietnam's production areas are waiting for precipitation and may start tapping at the end of April. In Hainan, raw material prices have fallen, and private factories have resumed purchasing rubber, with an increase in glue output. In March, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers was 1.56, a slight decrease of 3.1% from the previous month, basically the same as the same period last year. In the first quarter of 2025, the cumulative output of rubber tires in China was 283 million, with a year - on - year growth rate of 4.4%. The total export volume of Chinese rubber tires was 2.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [10]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu was 2,418 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton. The methanol operating rate was 83.37%, a weekly decrease of 0.49%. A 250,000 - ton/year methanol plant of Yankuang Guojiao was under maintenance for about a week. The total downstream capacity utilization rate was 72.26%, a weekly decrease of 2.25%. The sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 463,200 tons, a weekly decrease of 122,400 tons; the inventory of sample methanol production enterprises was 309,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 260 tons; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 302,700 tons, a weekly increase of 28,300 tons [11]. Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash in the country was 1,413 yuan/ton, showing a slow downward trend. The soda ash operating rate was 88.9%, an increase of 1%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.7113 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.08%. The operating rate of float glass was 75.42%, unchanged from the previous week. The average price of float glass in the country was 1,280 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton from the previous day. The total inventory of float glass sample enterprises in the country was 65.078 million weight boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 0.19% [12]. Caustic Soda - The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The prices of liquid caustic soda and liquid chlorine in Shandong both decreased, and the chlor - alkali profit was 302 yuan/ton. The weekly capacity utilization rate of caustic soda was 82.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%. The chlor - alkali plant of Anhui Huasu is expected to resume production on April 26. The weekly inventory of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 420,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 10.83%. The weekly operating rate of downstream alumina was 80%, a decrease of 2%; the weekly operating rate of viscose staple fiber was 78.2%, a decrease of 5.39% [13].