晕了晕了！前三季度超2000亿元资金借道ETF进场，但这只ETF竟被抛了500亿元 叶峰 2025年前三季度A股主要股指均呈上涨态势。创业板指、科创50指数领涨，累计涨幅均达51.2%，沪深300、上证指数、上证50指数累计涨幅均超10%。 ETF方面，今年前三季度，ETF份额增加3530.05亿份，达到30060.48亿份，总规模增加18963.19亿元，为56281.34亿元，股票型ETF和跨境型ETF合计净流入 资金逾2000亿元。 | 证券代码 | 基金简称 | 收盘价 （元) | 前 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 159792.SZ | 港股通互联网ETF | 1.07 | | | 510330.SH 沪深300ETF华夏 | | 4.811 | | | 512880.SH | 证券ETF | 1.263 | | | 159636.SZ | 港股通科技30ETF | 1.611 | | | 513090.SH | 香港证券ETF | 2.332 | | | 159570.SZ | 港股通创新药ETF | 1.96 | | | 513750.SH | 港股通非银ETF | ...

Report Title - Local Boom in Convertible Bond Gold Mining (1) [2] Report Date and Analysts - Report Date: September 28, 2025 - Analysts: Luo Yunfeng (SAC No.: S1050524060001), Yang Feiran (SAC No.: S1050524070001) [3] Core Views - The core driving force of the market in this round has been the improvement of risk appetite, which is an endogenous variable of profitability. Since September, considering the decline in equity trading volume, the narrowing gap between the growth and value of equities, and the increase in the proportion of the same - direction movement of stocks and bonds, it is believed that the repair of risk appetite is basically in place. In the future, risk appetite will fluctuate within a range along with profitability, with the upper and lower limits corresponding to the levels in early January (the week of January 6) and early September (the week of September 8) respectively. On September 25, 2025, it approached the lowest level in recent years on October 12, 2024 [4]. - The recent shift of the market from "banks + micro - cap stocks" to technology has a profit foundation, that is, the overall economy is bottoming out but there are local upturns. The private - sector debt growth rate is used as a proxy variable for profitability, and its downward bottom appeared in October 2024 and has not reached a new low as of July 2025 [4]. - The long - term cycle of convertible bonds is synchronized with equities. The periodic recovery of convertible bond valuations provides signals for left - hand side position - adding and profit - taking. Therefore, short - term fluctuations may be leading and amplifying signals of equities. Recently, although convertible bond valuations have been actively adjusted, they are still at a relatively high level. After the holiday, attention should be paid to locally booming industries and performance - realizing targets [6]. 01 Risk Appetite Will Follow Profitability in Range - bound Fluctuations - The repair of risk appetite in this round may be basically in place. The highest point of risk appetite since data became available was in 2007, and the lowest point was on April 7, 2025. Excluding the impact of event - driven factors, the lowest point was in January 2025. The private - sector debt growth rate, as a proxy variable for profitability, reached its bottom in October 2024 and has not set a new low as of July 2025. The risk appetite may enter a range - bound fluctuation, and on September 25, 2025, it approached the lowest level in recent years on October 12, 2024 [8]. - The overall economic fundamentals are still in the bottom - grinding stage. In the second quarter, the real GDP grew by 5.2% year - on - year, 0.2 percentage points lower than in the first quarter. Investment has been sluggish due to the real estate sector, and infrastructure investment has declined at an accelerating pace since mid - year. Consumption has been affected by the high - then - low national subsidies at the beginning of the year, and the CPI has been in a slump. Industrial product prices have shown a trend of price increases with volume contraction. From the perspective of Wind All - A earnings data, the overall economic fundamentals are still bottoming out [11][14]. 02 Fundamental Local Boom Corresponds to the Double - Innovation Market - In terms of revenue, the improvement of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 and the ChiNext Index is leading, while the Micro - cap and Dividend Indexes have the most obvious decline. In 2025Q2, the revenue growth rate of the ChiNext Index increased by 5 percentage points to 9.3%, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 ended its relative disadvantage for three consecutive quarters. The revenue of the Micro - cap and Dividend Indexes decreased by 7.8% and 5.9% respectively in 2025Q2 [18]. - In terms of gross profit margin, compared with 2024Q2, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 and the SSE 50 had the most significant increase in gross profit margin in 2025Q2, up 2.5 and 2.0 percentage points respectively. The ChiNext Index had a gross profit margin of 24.5% in 2025Q2, still the highest among broad - based indexes [21]. - Most indexes' year - on - year growth rate of net profit attributable to shareholders in 2025Q2 declined quarter - on - quarter. The Science and Technology Innovation Board had a significant improvement in net profit in 2025Q2, and the ChiNext Index continued to lead other broad - based indexes in terms of growth rate [24]. - In terms of specific industries, in 2025Q2, the industries with the highest year - on - year growth rate of net profit attributable to shareholders were gaming (104%), steel (82%), precious metals (76%), etc. The industries with the largest decline were real estate (- 132%), coal (- 37%), etc. The industries with positive growth in 2025Q2 and an improvement compared with 2025Q1 were banks, insurance, etc. Combining the historical percentile of valuation, the industries with high performance growth and still some room for valuation are power equipment, new energy, gaming, and consumer electronics [29][30] 03 Convertible Bonds Follow Equities to Explore Locally Booming Sectors - The long - term cycle of convertible bonds is synchronized with equities. The short - term periodic recovery of convertible bond valuations provides signals for left - hand side position - adding and profit - taking. Short - term fluctuations may be leading and amplifying signals of equities. Recently, although convertible bond valuations have been actively adjusted, they are still at a relatively high level. After the holiday, attention should be paid to locally booming industries and performance - realizing targets. Convertible bond targets with good performance in 2025Q2 are concentrated in power equipment, electronics, etc. [45] - The All - A Index can basically explain most of the long - term fluctuations of convertible bonds. The regression results show that the performance of convertible bonds mainly follows the equity market, and the equity market trend can explain 91.4% of the price fluctuations of the convertible bond market. The convertible bond market follows equities in this round, and is less affected by the bond market [48][59] - The short - term fluctuations of convertible bond valuations provide signals for left - hand side position - adding and profit - taking. From June 23 to August 25, the active increase in convertible bond valuations was greater than that of the underlying stocks. Therefore, the convertible bond market entered the downward - oscillation cycle earlier than the equity market on August 27 and had a larger decline due to the return of valuations [61] - ETF share fluctuations have a relatively small impact on the price fluctuations of underlying convertible bond targets. Since September, the growth rate of convertible bond ETF shares has decreased significantly, which may mainly reflect sentiment and valuation [64] - Convertible bonds with good profitability have larger increases and are more resistant to declines. From June 23 to August 25, convertible bonds followed the underlying stocks in a sharp rise, with the growth sector leading. Some convertible bonds in individual sectors outperformed the underlying stocks, mainly concentrated in industries and targets with excellent performance. From August 25 to September 23, convertible bonds led the All - A Index in decline, and their subsequent performance was weaker than that of equities, mainly due to the periodicity of convertible bond valuation fluctuations [70][77] - The new energy sector under the goal of carbon peaking by 2030 may be one of the most certain trading directions in the next five years. The new energy vehicle penetration rate continues to increase, and the energy storage market has an important turning point. The report focuses on Keli Convertible Bonds and Hongfa Convertible Bonds in the new energy field [83] - Keli Convertible Bonds: Kodal Precision is the global leader in precision structural parts. The company's performance has been growing steadily. The convertible bond has a relatively large issuance scale, and the current price is around 140 yuan, with a conversion premium rate of 18.6%. It is an offensive convertible bond with high - quality underlying stocks and has no risk of forced redemption for the time being [87][89][92] - Hongfa Convertible Bonds: Hongfa Co., Ltd. is the world's largest relay manufacturer. The company's performance has been growing steadily. The convertible bond has a large issuance scale, and the current price is around 134 yuan, with a conversion premium rate of 18.2%. The downward - adjustment clause is relatively loose [95][98][101]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the equity market is experiencing high-level fluctuations, with significant divergence observed. The A-share market has shown a volatile trend, with trading volume exceeding 3 trillion, but the upward momentum is weakening. Key sectors like optical modules and PCB are undergoing high-level adjustments, while other sectors lack sustained support [2][9][12]. - The report emphasizes that despite favorable macro factors, such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and positive communication between US and Chinese leaders, the market struggles to find a new leading sector following the decline of the Nvidia supply chain. Sectors like chips, solid-state batteries, and robotics are only showing temporary strength [3][12][13]. - The report suggests a "barbell strategy" for A-share allocation, recommending to maintain positions in relatively strong sectors like chips and robotics while managing risk through defensive investments in dividend stocks that have undergone sufficient adjustments [5][14]. Group 2 - The bond market is currently in a weak adjustment phase, with initial recovery efforts failing to sustain. The overall sentiment remains subdued, and the bond market is unlikely to show significant performance without substantial positive developments [6][36]. - In the commodity market, gold is experiencing high-level fluctuations post-Fed rate cut, with limited upward momentum. However, there is potential for long-term growth in gold due to its dual role as an investment and a safe haven asset. Oil prices remain stable [7][42][43]. - The report advises maintaining gold positions in the short term while continuing to observe market conditions for long-term strategies [47].

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.39%, Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.26%, and ChiNext Index down by 0.75% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 26,790 billion [1] ETF Performance - The top-performing ETF was the Rare Earth ETF from E Fund, which increased by nearly 8% [2] - Other notable gainers included various Agricultural ETFs, with increases ranging from 2.45% to 2.94% [2] Economic Indicators - July CPI remained flat year-on-year at +0.0%, with food prices down by 1.6%, particularly pork prices which fell by 9.5% [3] - Agricultural product imports totaled $18.678 billion, up by 5.14% year-on-year, while exports were $8.385 billion, up by 1.59%, resulting in a trade deficit of $10.293 billion, which increased by 8.21% [3] Industry Insights - The swine breeding industry is highlighted for its defensive and offensive investment opportunities, with expectations of stable prices and improved profit margins due to declining costs [3] - The pet food industry is in a growth phase, with leading companies increasing their market share [3] - There is potential for price increases in yellow chicken due to low supply levels [3] ETF Trading Activity - The top ETF by trading volume was the Short-term Bond ETF, with a transaction amount of 26 billion [6] - The top ETF by turnover rate was the South Korea Semiconductor ETF, with a turnover rate of 203.45% [7] Upcoming Investment Opportunities - The market is focusing on the dual innovation sector, with new ETFs such as the East Money Growth Enterprise Board Enhanced ETF set to launch [9] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized enhancing the inclusivity and adaptability of the market, particularly for technology and innovative sectors [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent financial performance of a leading company in the technology sector, highlighting significant revenue growth and strategic initiatives that position the company for future success [5]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue increase of 25% year-over-year, reaching $10 billion in the last quarter [5]. - Net income rose to $2 billion, reflecting a 30% increase compared to the same period last year [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) improved to $1.50, up from $1.10, indicating strong profitability [5]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has invested heavily in research and development, allocating $1 billion to new product innovations [5]. - A strategic partnership with another tech firm is expected to enhance market reach and product offerings [5]. - The company plans to expand its operations into emerging markets, targeting a 15% growth in these regions over the next two years [5]. Market Position - The company maintains a leading market share of 35% in its primary segment, outpacing competitors [5]. - Customer satisfaction ratings have improved, with a reported 90% approval rate from users [5]. - The company is recognized for its commitment to sustainability, with initiatives aimed at reducing carbon emissions by 50% by 2030 [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the equity market continues to strengthen, with the A-share market showing a strong upward trend and daily trading volume exceeding 2.1 trillion yuan, driven by high market sentiment and supportive policies [2][10][13] - The report highlights that both domestic fundamentals and policies are favorable, with July macroeconomic data showing steady improvement in production and consumption, alongside policy measures like consumer loan interest subsidies that inject liquidity into the market [2][10][14] - The report suggests that the key focus for the market is whether the Shanghai Composite Index can stabilize around the 3700-point level, which is seen as a critical point for future market trends [3][4][14] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that the current market sentiment is robust, with the dual innovation sector likely to present short-term investment opportunities, while the long-term outlook remains positive due to policy support [4][15] - It is recommended to adopt a "barbell strategy" in asset allocation, maintaining positions in strong sectors like telecommunications and innovative pharmaceuticals while selectively investing in sectors like photovoltaics and cultural tourism [4][15] - The report notes that the bond market is experiencing downward pressure due to a significant shift of funds towards the equity market, making it challenging for the bond market to find support in the short term [6][38] Group 3 - In the commodity market, the report states that gold is unlikely to perform well in the short term, while energy commodities like crude oil show signs of stabilization [7][45] - The recommendation for gold is to reduce positions in the short term while maintaining a watchful stance for potential long-term opportunities [8][46]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance and characteristics of various indices tracking the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market, emphasizing their focus on high market capitalization and liquidity stocks in emerging industries [3][4]. - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 Index consists of 50 stocks with significant "hard technology" characteristics, where over 60% are in the semiconductor sector, and more than 75% are in medical devices, software development, and photovoltaic equipment [3]. - The index has experienced a rise of 1% today, with a rolling price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 147.9 times since its inception [3]. Group 2 - The Growth Enterprise Market ETF tracks an index composed of 100 stocks with high market capitalization and liquidity, with a significant focus on strategic emerging industries, where over 55% are in electric equipment, pharmaceuticals, and electronics [3]. - The index has seen a decline of 1.6% today, with a rolling P/E ratio of 35.7 times since its inception [3]. - The Sci-Tech Innovation and Growth Enterprise ETF tracks the CSI Sci-Tech Innovation and Growth 50 Index, which includes 50 large-cap stocks from both boards, with nearly 75% in emerging industries such as electric equipment, electronics, and pharmaceuticals [4]. Group 3 - The rolling P/E ratio for the Sci-Tech Innovation and Growth Enterprise Index is 47.2 times, reflecting a decline of 1.5% today [4]. - The article provides historical context for the indices, noting that the Sci-Tech Innovation Board 50 Index was launched on July 23, 2020, the Growth Enterprise Market Index on June 1, 2010, and the CSI Sci-Tech Innovation and Growth 50 Index on June 1, 2021 [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the upward trend in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, particularly driven by the technology sector and communication stocks [1] - Galaxy Securities anticipates that the AI computing power industry chain will continue to recover in the second half of the year, presenting new investment opportunities [1] - Specific sub-sectors showing potential include operators, optical communication, satellite internet, and quantum technology [1] Group 2 - The dual innovation sector is expected to have high elasticity in a bull market scenario, with a price fluctuation limit of 20%, making it a leading indicator in A-share rebound trends [1] - Investors without stock accounts are advised to consider the Guotai CSI Science and Technology Innovation 100 ETF linked C (019867) and linked A (019866) [1]