12月18日，中国宏观经济研究院研究员张燕生在论坛上表示，中国短期年度计划以"内需主导"为抓手，中长期五 到十年则从产业、科技、内需三个重要方面进行推动。 他进一步指出，中国式现代化的推进、中国经济的持续发展，核心就是要把中国的消费与投资做大做强，全力提 振内需。因为内需能够提振消费、扩大投资，这样才能有效对冲国际形势、国际贸易、国际经济与国际投资领域的变 化。 由北京市通州区人民政府指导，《财经》杂志、财经网、《财经智库》主办的"《财经》年会2026：预测与战略 · 年度对话暨2025全球财富管理论坛"于12月18日至20日在北京举行，主题为"变局中的中国定力"。 中国宏观经济研究院研究员 张燕生 张燕生强调，当前，国际政策环境与经济秩序都发生变化，在这样的背景下，如何稳步推动明年及未来五年的经 济增长与出口稳定，非常重要。 值得深思的是，"全球化悖论"——历史与当下的反全球化力量，往往正是曾经的全球化推手。张燕生提出，新全 球化区别于以往的核心特征，是基于市场规律、企业主体、民间交流、人工智能技术赋能的开放模式，其进程注定缓 慢且曲折，但符合全球共同利益。 对于未来的五年大国关系及全球治理体系，张燕生给出 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. National Security Strategy report emphasizes prioritizing the Western Hemisphere, criticizing Europe, downplaying terrorism threats, and aiming for a balance between external commitments and internal capabilities [1][2]. Group 1: Monroe Doctrine and Intervention in Latin America - The report introduces the "Trump Doctrine" as a modern version of the Monroe Doctrine, asserting U.S. dominance in the Western Hemisphere [1]. - It outlines objectives such as preventing mass immigration, using lethal force against drug cartels, and ensuring U.S. access to strategic locations in Latin America [1][2]. - Analysts suggest this indicates a significant increase in U.S. resources allocated to intelligence, military, law enforcement, and economic strategies in Latin America [2]. Group 2: Global Military Presence Adjustment - The report calls for a "reallocation" of U.S. military resources, reducing presence in regions deemed less critical to national security [3]. - Experts interpret this as a decline in the importance of Europe, the Middle East, and Africa in U.S. foreign policy [3]. Group 3: Strategic Military and Economic Goals - The report aims to alleviate global security burdens by encouraging allies to take on more defense responsibilities and avoiding costly "forever wars" [4]. - It emphasizes the need to rebuild the U.S. defense industrial base and maintain dominance in key technological fields [5]. - The report also highlights the end of the era where the Middle East dominated U.S. foreign policy, although skepticism remains about the actual shift in focus [5]. Group 4: Anti-Immigration and Anti-Globalization Stance - The report reflects a vision of global order based on "America First," characterized by anti-immigration and anti-globalization sentiments [6]. - It attributes many global challenges to immigration, asserting that large-scale immigration undermines traditional powers' cultural and economic dominance [6]. - The report contains strong criticisms of Europe, warning of severe consequences due to immigration policies and economic stagnation [6]. Group 5: Power Dynamics and Global Influence - The report indicates a more inward-looking and narrow view of U.S. security, while simultaneously asserting that no country should become too powerful to threaten U.S. interests [7]. - It continues to advocate for a strong power logic in international relations, emphasizing that great powers have significant influence [7]. - The report has been described as an attempt to impose the President's worldview selectively on the global stage [7].

Core Viewpoint - The newly released U.S. National Security Strategy report emphasizes prioritizing the Western Hemisphere, critiques Europe, downplays the threat of terrorism, and aims to rebalance external commitments with internal capabilities [1]. Group 1: U.S. Intervention in Latin America - The report introduces the "Trump Doctrine" as a modern version of the Monroe Doctrine, asserting U.S. dominance in the Western Hemisphere [1]. - The goals of the "Trump Doctrine" include preventing large-scale immigration, using lethal force against drug cartels if necessary, and ensuring U.S. access to strategic locations in Latin America [1][2]. - Analysts suggest this will lead to increased U.S. investment in intelligence, military, law enforcement, and economic strategies in Latin America, indicating a more interventionist stance [2]. Group 2: Global Military Presence Adjustment - The report calls for a reallocation of U.S. military resources, reducing presence in regions deemed less critical to national security, such as Europe, the Middle East, and Africa [3][4]. - The strategy aims to alleviate the global security burden by encouraging allies to take on more defense responsibilities and avoiding costly "forever wars" [4]. Group 3: Economic and Industrial Focus - The report emphasizes the need for U.S. economic security as a foundation for national security, advocating for dominance in key technological fields and a robust defense industrial base [4]. - It highlights the importance of securing access to critical minerals and maintaining U.S. leadership in energy and finance [4]. Group 4: Anti-Immigration and Anti-Globalization Stance - The report reflects a vision of global order based on "America First," characterized by anti-immigration and anti-globalization sentiments, blaming immigration for various global challenges [6]. - It warns Europe about the consequences of its immigration policies and economic stagnation, suggesting that the U.S. should help correct Europe's trajectory [6]. Group 5: Power Dynamics and Global Influence - The report indicates a more inward-looking and narrow view of U.S. security, while simultaneously asserting that the U.S. must prevent any nation from becoming too powerful [7]. - It reiterates the belief that power dynamics are a constant in international relations, emphasizing the importance of strength in maintaining peace [7].

Market Overview - A-shares opened significantly lower due to Trump's threat of increased tariffs but quickly narrowed the decline as panic subsided, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.19% and the Shenzhen Component down 0.93% at the close, with total trading volume exceeding 2.3 trillion yuan [1] - The market's reaction to the tariff disturbances was quicker than in previous instances, indicating limited adjustment space for A-shares, with potential investment opportunities in rare earths, semiconductors, and AI industries amid the backdrop of US-China decoupling [1] Mining Sector - Mining stocks experienced a strong performance, with the mining ETF rising 4.59% and the Wind Rare Earth Index soaring 9.49%, driven by China's strengthened control over rare earth resources and the approaching traditional peak demand season [3] - The rare earth industry is expected to see a rise in both volume and price due to supply-side management and increasing global demand for elements like neodymium and praseodymium, particularly in green technology applications [3] - Long-term investment logic in the mining sector remains solid, with gold prices having risen over 50% since the beginning of the year, significantly enhancing the valuation space for gold mining stocks [3] Nonferrous Metals - Several metals are poised to benefit from a shift in supply-demand dynamics, particularly copper, which is expected to transition from a "tight balance" to a "shortage" over the next two years due to supply disruptions and expanding demand [4] - The Democratic Republic of the Congo's new export quota system for cobalt is anticipated to reverse the current oversupply situation, potentially leading to a shortage and driving cobalt prices to historical highs [4] - The mining sector is supported by multiple factors, suggesting further improvements in profitability and valuation, with recommendations to focus on mining ETFs [4] Semiconductor Industry - The STAR 50 Index showed resilience, with the semiconductor equipment ETF rising 3.43%, driven by the core theme of "domestic substitution and self-control" amid ongoing US-China tensions in the semiconductor sector [5] - Recent domestic measures include antitrust investigations against Nvidia and anti-dumping investigations on US-imported chips, aimed at enhancing the security and autonomy of the domestic semiconductor industry [5] - The market for domestic semiconductor equipment remains vast, with current domestic production rates for critical processes still below 20% [5] AI and Semiconductor Equipment - Semiconductor equipment manufacturers are expected to benefit from the growing demand for AI and high-performance computing (HPC), with strong investment in advanced processes driven by AI chip demand [6] - The high demand for high-bandwidth memory and 3D NAND is likely to lead to a structural supply shortage, further boosting related equipment investments [6] - The market is shifting focus from previously hot sectors like computing and chips to upstream semiconductor equipment for potential investment opportunities [6] Gold Market - Gold prices continue to rise, recently surpassing $4,090, with gold ETFs also showing significant gains, supported by increased market uncertainty and geopolitical tensions [6][8] - The trend of central banks increasing gold reserves is ongoing, with China's reserves reaching 74.06 million ounces, marking the 11th consecutive month of increases [8] - The combination of monetary expansion, fiscal deficits, and global geopolitical instability is expected to sustain demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [8] New Energy Vehicles - The new energy vehicle ETF rose 0.75% after a recent adjustment, supported by strong demand in the lithium battery sector and significant sales growth from leading manufacturers [9] - The lithium battery industry is experiencing favorable catalysts, including increased production and strong demand forecasts for 2026, alongside improved financial metrics for lithium companies [9] - The energy storage market is also showing robust demand, with significant growth in bidding for storage systems expected in the coming years [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent Japanese Senate elections indicate a significant shift in the political landscape, with the rise of the conservative "Reform Party" reflecting a growing discontent among voters towards the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its perceived inefficiencies [1][2]. Group 1: Political Landscape - The ruling coalition of the LDP and Komeito has lost its majority in the Senate, marking a critical moment in Japan's political stability [1]. - The emergence of the Reform Party, which won 14 seats in the Senate and garnered over 7.4 million votes, signifies a shift towards a more nationalist and conservative political stance [2][3]. Group 2: Voter Sentiment - Voters express frustration with the LDP's handling of immigration and globalization, feeling that the party has become too lenient towards foreign influences [3][4]. - The Reform Party's platform, centered on "putting Japanese people first," resonates with those who feel marginalized by current political elites and policies [2][3]. Group 3: Future Implications - The rise of the Reform Party may lead to increased polarization and populism in Japanese politics, similar to trends observed in the United States with the MAGA movement [4]. - The reliance on social media for mobilization by the Reform Party suggests a shift in how political discourse is shaped, potentially leading to more divisive and less rational communication in the political arena [4].

Core Viewpoint - The "2025 China Enterprises Going Global Summit" emphasizes the need for Chinese companies to navigate the challenges of globalization and free trade amidst a restructuring global industrial chain [1]. Group 1 - The summit aims to provide a high-end platform for Chinese enterprises to engage in dialogue, resource connection, and problem-solving regarding going global [1]. - Gao Zhikai, Deputy Director of the Globalization Think Tank (CCG), highlighted the relationship between globalization and free trade, stating that anti-globalization is essentially anti-free trade, which is a short-term behavior [2]. Group 2 - Gao discussed the "Trump phenomenon" during his recent visit to Europe, questioning whether it is a short-term or long-term trend, suggesting that strategies should be adjusted accordingly [2]. - He warned of the potential negative outcomes of the current confrontational stance of the U.S., advocating for a steady approach as suggested by Deng Xiaoping, to avoid missing opportunities [2]. - Gao asserted that China has become the defender of free trade, holding the banner of free trade and emerging as a winner in the current global landscape [2].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. administration's decision to modify tariffs on China is seen as a positive signal, indicating the importance of bilateral economic relations for both countries and the global economy [1] Group 1: Tariff Adjustments - On May 12, the U.S. White House issued an executive order to modify tariffs to reflect the situation in talks with China, and on May 14, it announced the suspension or adjustment of tariffs on China [1] - This move is interpreted as a recognition of the significance of U.S.-China economic relations [1] Group 2: Economic Perspectives - Nobel laureate economist James Heckman expressed strong opposition to "anti-globalization" and emphasized the importance of free trade [1] - Heckman stated that he is pleased with China's stance against "reciprocal tariffs" during critical times, highlighting the vibrancy of the Chinese economy [1]