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格林大华期货早盘提示:三油-20260316
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2026-03-16 03:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For vegetable oils, due to the repeated conflicts between the US and Iran, the market anticipates a long - drawn - out and attritional war. With the continuous rise in international oil prices and positive news such as Indonesia's B50 biodiesel test and potential US bio - fuel blending regulations, the vegetable oil market should maintain a bullish mindset, and investors can buy on dips [1][2]. - For double - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal), the macro factor remains the main driver of the market. The market fluctuates sharply, and investors are advised to operate with caution, hold existing long positions carefully, and mainly buy on dips [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oils 3.1.1 Market Review - On March 13th, affected by the repeated US - Iran conflicts, the vegetable oil futures prices continued to rise, led by palm oil. The closing prices of the main and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all increased to varying degrees compared to the previous day, with different changes in positions. For example, the main soybean oil contract Y2605 closed at 8690 yuan/ton, up 0.67% day - on - day, and the position increased by 7155 lots [1]. 3.1.2 Important News - On March 16th, the crude oil price soared. The US attacked Iran's major oil export hub, and Iran launched retaliatory attacks on the energy infrastructure of Israel and some Arab countries. - Indonesia is accelerating the road test of B50 biodiesel, and there are rumors that the US EPA will issue new renewable fuel blending regulations. - The Malaysian MPOB report shows that the inventory at the end of February decreased by 3.94% to 2.7 million tons, production decreased by 18.55% to 1.28 million tons, and exports decreased by 22.48% to 1.13 million tons. - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026. - The shipping survey agency ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports in February decreased by 21.5% compared to January. - As of the end of the 10th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.0463 million tons, a weekly increase of 22,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.26%. The inventory of different oils changed differently. - In terms of spot prices as of March 13th, the average spot price of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang decreased by 40 yuan/ton, the average spot price of palm oil in Guangdong increased by 60 yuan/ton, and the spot price of grade - four rapeseed oil in Jiangsu increased by 70 yuan/ton. The oil - meal ratio of the main soybean oil and soybean meal contracts was 2.78 [1][2]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, due to the US - Iran conflict, international oil prices rose above $100, the US soybean oil was consolidating at a high level, and the Malaysian palm oil futures price followed the increase. The news from Indonesia and the US also boosted the BMD palm oil and CBOT soybean oil. Although the international crude oil reserve agency plans to release reserve oil, it does not change the long - term upward trend of crude oil, so the vegetable oil market should maintain a bullish mindset [2]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - Hold existing long positions in low - priced oils and slightly enter new long positions. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts, such as Y2605 with a resistance level of 9300 and a support level of 8048 [2]. 3.2 Double - meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 3.2.1 Market Review - On March 13th, due to the warming macro - sentiment and increased macro - funds, and concerns about the受阻 of rapeseed meal imports in the UAE, the double - meal continued to rise sharply. The main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 3128 yuan/ton, up 2.42% day - on - day, with an increase in position of 2602 lots. The main rapeseed meal contract RM2605 closed at 2591 yuan/ton, up 3.97% day - on - day, with a decrease in position of 5797 lots [2]. 3.2.2 Important News - The US Department of Agriculture's March monthly supply - demand report had little adjustment to supply - demand data. The US soybean ending inventory forecast for the 2025/26 season remained at 350 million bushels, Brazil's soybean production estimate remained at 180 million tons, and Argentina's production forecast was lowered from 48.5 million tons to 48 million tons. The global soybean ending inventory for the 2025/26 season was expected to be 125.31 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons from February. - The US - Iran conflict may lead to a decline in soybean exports from Brazil and the US in the future, increasing the risk of rising shipping and insurance costs. - ANEC estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in March 2026 will be 16.09 million tons, a 2.3% increase from March 2025. - As of the end of the 10th week of 2026, the total domestic imported soybean inventory was 6.1062 million tons, a decrease of 591,300 tons from the previous week. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 767,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56,600 tons or 7.96%. The domestic imported rapeseed inventory was 171,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week. The domestic imported and pressed rapeseed meal inventory was 15,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8500 tons or 130.77%. - In terms of spot prices as of March 13th, the soybean meal spot price was 3439 yuan/ton, up 81 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed meal spot price was 2713 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan/ton. The soybean meal and rapeseed meal basis prices also increased. The US soybean April futures crushing margin was - 413 yuan/ton, and the spot crushing margin was - 144 yuan/ton. The Brazilian soybean April futures crushing margin was 77 yuan/ton, and the spot crushing margin was 345 yuan/ton. The arrival costs of soybeans and rapeseed from different origins were provided [2][3]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, international crude oil prices rose strongly, boosting global commodities. The soybean meal market was supported by the high - level operation of US soybeans and the strengthening of Brazilian discounts. There were also many market rumors, increasing the bullish sentiment of funds. The rapeseed meal market was supported by the rise of CBOT US soybeans above 1200 cents and the rumors in the soybean meal market. The technical indicators of the rapeseed meal futures were strong, but there was a risk of stagflation and correction after long - position profit - taking. In the spot market, the soybean meal price increased, and terminal feed enterprises actively replenished stocks. The rapeseed meal price also increased, but terminal procurement was cautious [2][3]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - Hold existing long positions carefully and mainly buy on dips. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts, such as M2605 with a resistance level of 3278 and a support level of 2710 [3].
中辉农产品观点-20260313
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2026-03-13 06:37
1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term Bullish Fluctuations**: This includes soymeal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil. The reasons involve factors such as the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, rainfall in Argentina, and export data of palm oil [1]. - **Bullish Fluctuations**: Cotton is expected to have bullish fluctuations. The outer market is affected by the general rise of bulk commodities, while the domestic Zhengzhou cotton is affected by the crude - oil chain. However, there is still a callback pressure due to the high internal - external price difference [1]. - **Under Pressure**: Red dates are under pressure. Although the trading sentiment is strengthened by external factors, the supply - demand pattern in the off - season is loose, and the inventory removal is basically stagnant [1]. - **Beware of Rebounds**: For live pigs, the short - term market is under pressure, but there may be a rebound in the far - month contracts. The supply side has a large pressure, and the demand side is in the off - season [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Soymeal - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3054 yuan/ton, down 0.46% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3401.14 yuan/ton, up 1.72% [2]. - **Market Situation**: There are concerns about short - term soybean supply in the domestic market, but the overall supply is sufficient. In the context of the impact of crude oil and South American weather, the market sentiment is bullish, and soymeal is expected to fluctuate bullishly this week, but be cautious about chasing long positions [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2492 yuan/ton, up 0.48% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2702.63 yuan/ton, up 1.50% [4]. - **Market Situation**: Domestic rapeseed will arrive at ports successively in March and later, but it is still lower than the same period last year. With a low - inventory state, the spot side has no pressure. It followed soymeal to close higher yesterday and is bullish in the short term [1][6]. Palm Oil - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 9684 yuan/ton, up 1.66% from the previous day. The national average price was 9753 yuan/ton, up 2.88% [7]. - **Market Situation**: The Strait of Hormuz incident and the good export data of Malaysian palm oil in the first 10 days of March have led to a short - term bullish trend. However, be cautious about chasing long positions, and treat it as an event - driven short - term market [1][8]. Cotton - **Price Information**: The main contract CF2605 closed at 15545 yuan/ton, up 0.19% from the previous day. The CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 16848 yuan/ton, up 1.08% [9]. - **Market Situation**: The outer market is affected by the rise of bulk commodities but is restricted by the strengthening of the US dollar. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton is affected by the crude - oil chain. Although there is a callback pressure due to the high internal - external price difference, the bullish sentiment is strong in the peak season [1][12]. Red Dates - **Price Information**: The main contract CJ2605 closed at 9080 yuan/ton, down 0.66% from the previous day. The spot prices of various regions were basically stable [13]. - **Market Situation**: The trading sentiment of the Zhengzhou red - date market is strengthened by external factors, but the supply - demand pattern in the off - season is loose, and the inventory removal is stagnant. Be cautious about the rebound height [1][14]. Live Pigs - **Price Information**: The main contract Ih2605 closed at 11130 yuan/ton, down 0.36% from the previous day. The national average slaughter price was 10040 yuan/ton, down 0.30% [15]. - **Market Situation**: The supply side has a large pressure, and the demand side is in the off - season. The short - term market is under pressure, but the far - month contracts may have a rebound opportunity [1][17].
《农产品》日报-20260313
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2026-03-13 02:54
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oil and Fat Industry - The basis quotes of oils are unable to rise due to the upward movement of the futures market and the off - season demand. The price of rapeseed oil may have a chance to reach the 10,000 - yuan mark again if the crude oil futures price continues to rise. The Malaysian palm oil futures are expected to fluctuate within the range of 4500 - 4600 ringgit, and the domestic palm oil futures may face pressure to decline. The CBOT soybean oil may continue to rise in the short - term, and the domestic soybean oil basis quotes are supported [1]. 2.2 Cotton Industry - The ICE cotton futures are slightly down but close to a two - week high. The US cotton export sales have increased week - on - week, and it is expected to maintain a low - level range - bound pattern. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton has回调 after several rises, and the cotton futures' long - position pattern continues [2]. 2.3 Sugar Industry - The ICE raw sugar futures have closed higher. It is expected that the short - term sugar price will remain firm with limited downward adjustment space. The domestic sugar market is expected to maintain a high - level range - bound and slightly stronger trend, but the upward momentum for a significant price increase is limited [3]. 2.4 Jujube Industry - The 25/26 crop season jujube market still has an oversupply pattern. The consumption market is weak, and the inventory pressure is large. The warehouse receipt cost supports the futures price, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction progress and weather conditions in the producing areas [5]. 2.5 Apple Industry - The apple futures price has fallen from a high level as the market sentiment has cooled. The spot market shows a "strong in the west and weak in the east" pattern. The inventory decline supports the futures price, and attention should be paid to the Tomb - Sweeping Festival replenishment, ordinary fruit inventory reduction, and weather changes [8]. 2.6 Corn and Corn Starch Industry - The corn price is supported by farmers' reluctance to sell and downstream replenishment needs, but the expected increase in supply and substitution limit its upward space, and it will maintain a high - level range - bound pattern [10]. 2.7 Meal Industry - The US soybean is supported by multiple factors but lacks fundamental changes. The domestic basis has strengthened, and the futures market is expected to maintain a high - level range - bound pattern with a strengthening basis [13]. 2.8 Pig Industry - The large - scale pig slaughter and off - season demand suppress the spot price. The secondary fattening enthusiasm is low, and it is expected that the futures and spot prices will continue to bottom out, with the possibility of further decline in the near - term contracts [16]. 2.9 Egg Industry - The supply of laying hens remains stable, and the demand is moderate. The egg price is expected to maintain a low - level range - bound pattern in the short - term [18]. 3. Summary of Each Industry Based on the Content 3.1 Oil and Fat Industry Price Changes - **Soybean oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 8950 yuan, up 190 yuan (2.17%) from the previous day; the futures price of Y2605 is 8632 yuan, up 62 yuan (0.72%); the basis is 318 yuan, up 128 yuan (67.37%) [1]. - **Palm oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9753 yuan, up 273 yuan (2.88%); the futures price of P2605 is 9684 yuan, up 158 yuan (1.66%); the basis is - 46 yuan, up 250% [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10232 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 0.10%); the futures price of OI605 is 9769 yuan, down 9 yuan (- 0.09%); the basis is 464 yuan, down 1 yuan (- 0.22%) [1]. Spread Changes - **Inter - month spreads**: The 05 - 09 spread of soybean oil is - 22 yuan, down 19.30%; the 05 - 09 spread of palm oil is 26 yuan, up 46.43%; the 05 - 09 spread of rapeseed oil is - 12 yuan, down 12.82% [1]. - **Cross - variety spreads**: The spot spread between soybean oil and palm oil is - 803 yuan, down 11.53%; the 2605 spread between soybean oil and palm oil is - 1052 yuan, down 10.04%; the spot spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1282 yuan, down 13.50%; the 2605 spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1137 yuan, down 5.88% [1]. 2.2 Cotton Industry Futures Market - The price of cotton 2605 is 15545 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan (1.47%); the price of cotton 2609 is 15380 yuan/ton, up 215 yuan (1.40%); the 5 - 9 spread is - 50 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (16.67%) [2]. Spot Market - The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B is 16673 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan (1.15%); the CC Index: 3128B is 16848 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan (1.08%); the FC Index:M: 1% is 12647 yuan/ton, up 101 yuan (0.81%) [2]. Industry Situation - The commercial inventory is 547.70 million tons, down 31.17 million tons (- 5.4%); the industrial inventory is 89.40 million tons, up 3.30 million tons (3.8%); the import volume is 17.79 million tons, up 5.89 million tons (49.5%); the bonded area inventory is 47.10 million tons, up 4.20 million tons (9.8%) [2]. 2.3 Sugar Industry Futures Market - The price of sugar 2605 is 5416 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan (- 0.13%); the price of sugar 2609 is 5447 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan (- 0.02%); the 5 - 9 spread is - 31 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan (- 24.00%) [3]. Spot Market - The price in Nanning is 5470 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (0.18%); the price in Kunming is 5320 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Nanning basis is 54 yuan, up 17 yuan (45.95%); the Kunming basis is - 96 yuan, up 7 yuan (6.80%) [3]. Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 689.00 million tons, down 60.28 million tons (- 8.05%); the cumulative national sugar sales is 270.00 million tons, down 103.50 million tons (- 27.71%); the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi is 402.90 million tons, down 78.80 million tons (- 16.36%) [3]. 2.4 Jujube Industry Futures Market - The price of jujube 2605 is 9080 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan (- 0.66%); the price of jujube 2607 is 9245 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan (- 0.86%); the price of jujube 2609 is 9535 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan (- 1.00%) [5]. Spot Market - The price of Cangzhou special - grade jujube is 9210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (0.11%); the price of Cangzhou first - grade jujube is 7900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Cangzhou second - grade jujube is 6900 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. 2.5 Apple Industry Futures Market - The price of apple 2605 is 9984 yuan/ton, down 252 yuan (- 2.46%); the price of apple 2610 is 8636 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan (- 0.24%); the 5 - 10 spread is 1348 yuan/ton, down 231 yuan (- 14.63%) [8]. Spot Market - The arrival volume at Chalong Fruit Wholesale Market is 23 vehicles, down 2 vehicles (- 8.00%); the arrival volume at Jiangmen Fruit Wholesale Market is 12 vehicles, down 1 vehicle (- 7.69%); the arrival volume at Xiaqiao Fruit Wholesale Market is 16 vehicles, down 1 vehicle (- 5.88%) [8]. Industry Situation - The national cold - storage inventory is 499.72 million tons, down 27.81 million tons (- 5.27%) [8]. 2.6 Corn and Corn Starch Industry Corn - The price of corn 2605 at Jinzhou Port is 2396 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan (0.04%); the 5 - 9 spread is - 19 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price at Shekou Port is 2500 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (0.40%); the import profit is 181 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan (- 6.44%) [10]. Corn Starch - The price of corn starch 2605 is 2723 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan (0.18%); the average price of corn starch is 2917 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan (0.31%); the basis is 194 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan (2.11%) [10]. 2.7 Meal Industry Soybean Meal - The spot price in Jiangsu is 3280 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan (0.92%); the futures price of M2605 is 3054 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan (- 0.46%); the basis is 226 yuan, up 44 yuan (24.18%) [13]. Rapeseed Meal - The spot price in Jiangsu is 2666 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan (1.53%); the futures price of RM2605 is 2492 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan (0.48%); the basis is 168 yuan, up 28 yuan (20.00%) [13]. Spreads - The 05 - 09 spread of soybean meal is - 10 yuan, down 71.43%; the 05 - 09 spread of rapeseed meal is 12 yuan, up 120.00%; the oil - meal ratio of the spot is 2.74, up 0.021 (0.76%); the oil - meal ratio of the main contract is 2.83, up 0.033 (1.19%); the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 620 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 1.59%); the 2605 spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 562 yuan, down 26 yuan (- 4.42%) [13]. 2.8 Pig Industry Futures Market - The price of the main contract of live pigs 2605 is 11130 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan (- 0.36%); the price of live pigs 2603 is 10180 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan (0.89%); the 3 - 5 spread is - 950 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan (12.04%) [16]. Spot Market - The price in Henan is 10050 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price in Shandong is 10250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Sichuan is 10200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Liaoning is 9900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price in Guangdong is 10710 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price in Hunan is 10110 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Hebei is 10100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [16]. Industry Situation - The daily slaughter volume of sample points is 165,965 heads, up 1547 heads (0.94%); the weekly white - strip price is 17.94 yuan/kg, down 0.54 yuan (- 2.92%); the weekly piglet price is 27.44 yuan/kg, unchanged; the weekly sow price is 32.46 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan (- 0.03%); the weekly slaughter weight is 128.55 kg, up 0.4 kg (0.31%); the weekly self - breeding profit is - 238 yuan/head, down 78.3 yuan (- 49.06%); the weekly purchased - piglet breeding profit is - 58.7 yuan/head, down 79.7 yuan (- 382.72%); the monthly fertile sow inventory is 39610,000 heads, down 290,000 heads (- 0.73%) [16]. 2.9 Egg Industry Futures Market - The price of the egg 04 contract is 3271 yuan/500KG, up 30 yuan (0.93%); the price of the egg 05 contract is 3457 yuan/500KG, up 19 yuan (0.55%); the 4 - 5 spread is - 186 yuan/500KG, up 11 yuan (5.58%) [18]. Spot Market - The egg - producing area price is 3.11 yuan/jin, unchanged; the basis is - 342 yuan/500KG, down 19 yuan (- 5.87%) [18]. Industry Situation - The price of egg - laying chicken chicks is 3.50 yuan/feather, up 0.20 yuan (6.06%); the price of culled chickens is 4.94 yuan/jin, up 0.51 yuan (11.39%); the egg - feed ratio is 2.63, down 0.26 (- 9.00%); the breeding profit is - 16.02 yuan/feather, down 6.41 yuan (- 249.92%) [18].
【冠通期货研究报告】:油粕日报:震荡上涨-20260312
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-03-12 09:46
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Brazil's soybean quarantine issue has triggered speculation on near - month arrivals, but institutions have not significantly reduced Brazil's export estimates, and the problem is expected to be resolved soon. Short - term strong export demand for US soybeans and near - month arrival speculation have strengthened soybean meal, which is expected to remain strong before the state reserves release [2]. - Market rumors about the US EPA's renewable fuel blending new regulations have attracted market attention. Indonesia is accelerating the road test of B50 biodiesel. However, due to the uncertainty of crude oil price increase, the expansion of biodiesel policies is still in the "possible" stage, and the Middle East situation and crude oil trend are the dominant factors for the rise and fall of the oil and fat sector [2]. Summary by Related Content Soybean Meal - ANEC estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in March 2026 will be 16.47 million tons, a 4.7% increase from 15.73 million tons in March 2025. From March 1st to 7th, the export volume was 3.71 million tons, and the estimated export volume from March 8th to 14th is 4.58 million tons, mostly concentrated in Santos Port, Paranagua Port, Bacarema Port, and São Luís do Itaqui Port. The estimated export volume from January to March may reach 26.25 - 29.19 million tons [1]. - Cargill has suspended soybean exports from Brazil to China due to Brazil's adjustment of inspection standards, which makes it difficult for traders to comply. The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture has implemented stricter phytosanitary assessments at the request of the Chinese government [1]. Oils and Fats - There are market rumors that the US EPA is about to release new renewable fuel blending regulations, which may require large refineries to make up 70% of the biofuel blending exemption quota. If this happens, large refiners may sue [2]. - Indonesia's Energy Ministry is accelerating the road test of B50 biodiesel to cope with possible crude oil supply shortages. The test of 50% biodiesel blended fuel is expected to complete the passenger car test by the end of March, and the government is evaluating the conditions for mandatory implementation by the end of 2026 [2].
豆粕:盘面创下阶段高点后回落,调整震荡;豆一:现货稳定,盘面调整震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-12 02:35
Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal futures hit a phased high and then declined, with an adjustment and oscillation. The soybean futures had stable spot prices and an adjustment and oscillation in the futures market. The CBOT soybean futures rose for the second consecutive day on March 11, mainly due to the rebound of international crude oil futures from the previous day's slump. The market is also concerned about the possible new renewable fuel blending regulations from the US EPA [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean No.1 2605 closed at 4,834 yuan/ton during the day session, up 71 yuan (+1.49%), and 4,837 yuan at night, up 37 yuan (+0.77%); DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 3,068 yuan/ton during the day session, up 106 yuan (+3.58%), and 3,047 yuan at night, up 15 yuan (+0.49%); CBOT soybean 05 closed at 1,214.25 cents/bu, up 11.0 cents (+0.91%); CBOT soybean meal 05 closed at 316.3 dollars/short ton, up 1.2 dollars (+0.38%) [1] - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the soybean meal (43%) price was 3,240 - 3,290 yuan/ton, with different adjustments in basis; in East China, the price in Taizhou Huifu was 3,230 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; in South China, the price in Dongguan Fuyuan was 3,300 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan. In the Northeast soybean - producing area, the net - grain purchase price in some areas of Harbin was 4,760 yuan/ton [1] - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 20.4 million tons per day (compared with 11.65 million tons the previous day), and the inventory was 73.52 million tons per week (compared with 71.72 million tons the previous week) [1] Macro and Industry News - On March 11, CBOT soybean futures rose for the second consecutive day as international crude oil futures rebounded from the previous day's slump. The market is also worried about the potential impact of the US - Israel war. There is a rumor that the US EPA will issue new renewable fuel blending regulations, which may require large - scale refineries to make up 70% of the bio - fuel blending exemption quota [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean No.1 is 0, indicating a neutral trend for the day - session main - contract futures prices on the reporting day [3]
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:农产品-20260312
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-12 02:00
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: With the upcoming RVO announcement, oils are trending strongly [2][4]. - Soybean oil: Supported by the cost of US soybeans, it will oscillate at a high level in the short term [2][4]. - Soybean meal: After the price reached a phased high, it declined and is now in an adjustment and oscillation phase [2][10]. - Soybean: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is in an adjustment and oscillation phase [2][10]. - Corn: It will move in an oscillatory manner [2][13]. - Sugar: It will be in a range - bound consolidation [2][18]. - Cotton: Waiting for new driving factors [2][23]. - Eggs: It will oscillate within a range [2][28]. - Pigs: There is passive inventory accumulation, and the spot price is declining gradually [2][31]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to macro - economic impacts [2][35]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 9,526 yuan/ton with a 0.68% increase, and the night - session closing price was 9,612 yuan/ton with a 0.90% increase. Soybean oil's day - session closing price was 8,570 yuan/ton with a 1.49% increase, and the night - session closing price was 8,588 yuan/ton with a 0.21% increase [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: CIMB Securities analyst Ivy Ng Lee Fang pointed out that due to the expected increase in exports offsetting the rise in production, Malaysia's palm oil inventory in March may decrease by 8% month - on - month to 2.48 million tons. If the Middle East conflict persists, prices still have room to rise [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil trend intensity is 1, and soybean oil trend intensity is 1 [9]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean 2605's day - session closing price was 4834 yuan/ton with a 1.49% increase, and the night - session closing price was 4837 yuan/ton with a 0.77% increase. DCE soybean meal 2605's day - session closing price was 3068 yuan/ton with a 3.58% increase, and the night - session closing price was 3047 yuan/ton with a 0.49% increase [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On March 11, CBOT soybean futures rose for the second consecutive day as international crude oil futures rebounded from the previous day's sharp decline. There is a market rumor that the US EPA is about to issue new regulations on renewable fuel blending, which may require large refineries to make up 70% of the bio - fuel blending exemption quota [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal trend intensity is 0, and soybean trend intensity is 0 [12]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The day - session closing price of C2605 was 2,395 yuan/ton with a 0.50% increase, and the night - session closing price was 2,394 yuan/ton with a - 0.04% change. The day - session closing price of C2607 was 2,406 yuan/ton with a 0.59% increase, and the night - session closing price was 2,403 yuan/ton with a - 0.12% change [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The bulk shipping port - collection price of northern corn decreased by 10 yuan/ton in some areas compared to the previous day. The containerized first - class grain port - collection price remained unchanged. The price of corn in the Northeast increased by 10 yuan/ton in some areas, and the price in North China mostly increased slightly [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 0 [16]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 14.25 cents/pound with a - 0.13 change year - on - year. The mainstream spot price was 5430 yuan/ton with a - 20 change year - on - year. The futures main - contract price was 5423 yuan/ton with a 14 change year - on - year [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: As of February 28, the sugar production in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season in India increased by 12% year - on - year. India approved an additional 500,000 tons of sugar exports. China imported 580,000 tons of sugar in December (+190,000 tons). As of the end of January, the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season was 4.03 million tons (- 790,000 tons) [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is 0 [21]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: The day - session closing price of CF2605 was 15,515 yuan/ton with a 1.27% increase, and the night - session closing price was 15490 yuan/ton with a - 0.16% change. The day - session closing price of CY2605 was 21,580 yuan/ton with a 1.41% increase [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The spot trading of cotton was mostly light, and the spot fixed - price quotes were few. The price was gradually higher than that of imported cotton of the same quality. The price of pure - cotton yarn was stable with a slight increase, and the market sentiment improved [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 1 [27]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of egg 2604 was 3,241 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 0.22% change. The closing price of egg 2605 was 3,438 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.64% change [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is 0 [29]. Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 10230 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 10250 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 10460 yuan/ton. The closing price of pig 2605 was 11170 yuan/ton, the closing price of pig 2607 was 12310 yuan/ton, and the closing price of pig 2609 was 13185 yuan/ton [32]. - **Trend Intensity**: Pig trend intensity is - 1 [33]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 9,100 yuan/ton, the price of Henan Baisha general peanuts was 7,400 yuan/ton. The closing price of PK604 was 7,958 yuan/ton with a 0.28% increase, and the closing price of PK605 was 8,034 yuan/ton with a 0.78% increase [35]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In Henan, the price of Baisha general peanuts in some areas was stable with a slight increase, and the price of large peanuts was stable. In Jilin, the price of 308 general peanuts was stable. In Liaoning, the price of 308 general peanuts was stable with a slight increase in some areas. In Shandong, the overall supply was low, and the price was stable [36]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [37].