百万用户都在看 A股重磅！"国家队"，再度出手！中概股，全线上涨！ 重磅！特朗普，突然宣布！集体飙涨！ 集体拉升！重磅"大单"，突然来袭！ 美联储，降息大消息！ 突然！美股，传出重大变革！ 违法和不良信息举报电话：0755-83514034 邮箱：bwb@stcn.com 据印度驻华大使馆官方微博7月23日发布，自2025年7月24日起，中国公民可申请旅游签证到访印度。 这是自2020年暂停后，印度时隔5年首次恢复向中国公民签发旅游签证。 此前印度对中国公民赴印商务 签证也有所限制，近期也得到了一定程度的放松。 综合自： 印度驻华大使馆、第一财经 责编：王璐璐 校对：王锦程 ...

ETF进化论 史诗级买入！国家队最新动向来了！ 原创 阅读全文 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 == 宏观金融数据日报 | | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | | 2025/7/18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 收盘价 较前值变动(bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 | | | | | | | (bp) | | हू | DR001 | 1.46 -0.49 | DR007 | 1.52 | -0.68 | | | GC001 | 1.13 -37.00 | GC007 | 1.47 | -6.50 | | m | | | | | | | 市 | SHBOR 3M | 1.56 -0.20 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | | 1年期国债 | 1.35 -0.50 | 5年期国债 | 1.51 | -0.25 | | 场 | | | | | | | | 10年期国债 | 1.66 0.00 | 10年期美债 | 4.46 | -4.00 | | 与 | | 同顾,由行昨日 ...

Group 1: Financial Market Data - DRO01 closed at 1.47 with a -6.11bp change, DR007 at 1.53 with a -4.05bp change, GC001 at 1.50 with a 0.50bp change, and GC007 at 1.54 with a -1.50bp change [3] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.56 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.35 with a -0.60bp change, 5 - year treasury at 1.51 with a 0.60bp change, 10 - year treasury at 1.66 with a 0.40bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.50 with a 7.00bp change [3] - The central bank conducted 520.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations with an interest rate of 1.4%, and the net injection was 444.6 billion yuan after 75.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [3] Group 2: Market Analysis - This week, 425.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open - market operations. Due to the tax period, liquidity has tightened, and the central bank's reverse repurchases have increased to signal care for the capital market [4] - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 0.3% to 4007.2, the Shanghai 50 fell 0.23% to 2740.9, the CSI 500 fell 0.03% to 6017.2, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.3% to 6462.1. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.442 trillion yuan, a decrease of 170 billion yuan [5] - The stock index fluctuated throughout the day. The banking sector corrected, and small and medium - cap stocks rose slightly due to news about AMD. The stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term due to factors like the "asset shortage" and policy expectations [6] Group 3: Futures Data - IF's current - month contract closed at 3998 with a -0.3% change, IH at 2734 with a -0.2% change, IC at 6007 with no change, and IM at 6444 with a 0.3% change [5] - IF's trading volume was 100,264 with a -19.3% change, and its position was 255,864 with a -4.3% change; IH's trading volume was 49,486 with a -19.3% change, and its position was 91,270 with a -6.4% change; IC's trading volume was 100,200 with a -0.5% change, and its position was 223,573 with a -3.3% change; IM's trading volume was 197,891 with a -6.0% change, and its position was 326,014 with a -5.4% change [5] - IF's current - month contract had an annualized premium rate of 41.91%, IH 48.61%, IC 32.13%, and IM 49.88% [7]

| | I TCTERRET | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 日博微吟参 | | | | 发布日期:2025 | | | 粉给公用言: ZOUULIC 人业资格号: F025 175 | | | | 行业板块 品種 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | 近期股指对利空的反映明显钝化,市场成交量和情绪维持强势。 | | | | 一方"资产荒"情形与"国家队"护盘下,市场对权益资产配置 | | | 版指 農汤 | 的意愿增面,强;另一方面,"反内卷"和地产政策预期对市场情 | | | | 绪带来提振。短期内，股指预计偏强震荡。 | | | 宏观金融 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | | 国债 農汤 | 空间。 | | | 黄金 農汤 | 市场不确定性仍存, 金价短期料震荡为主。 | | | 震荡 日银 | 警惕冲高回落风险。 | | | | 美国通胀反弹,打压降息预期。此外,美国铜关税或于近期落 | | | 看空 第四 | 地,美国以外地区铜有回流压力,沪铜及伦铜价格存在补跌风险 | | | 看空 | 电解铝高价压制下游需求,电解铝库 ...

Group 1: Market Interest Rates and Central Bank Operations - The closing prices and changes of various interest rate varieties are presented, such as DR001 closing at 1.53% with a 10.6bp increase, and DR007 closing at 1.57% with a 3.36bp increase [3]. - The central bank conducted 3425 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 690 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 1000 billion yuan of MLF maturing, resulting in a net injection of 1735 billion yuan. Also, it will conduct 14000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on July 15 [3]. - This week, there are 4257 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the central bank's open market. Recently, liquidity has slightly tightened, with the overnight inter - bank pledged repo weighted average rate rising 10.6bp to 1.53% and the 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate rising 3.36bp to 1.4957% [3]. Group 2: Stock Index Futures and Stock Market Performance - The closing prices and daily changes of major stock indices and their corresponding futures contracts are provided. For example, the CSI 300 closed at 4019 with a 0.03% increase, and the IF current - month contract closed at 4010 with no change [4]. - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures contracts have significant changes. For instance, the IF trading volume increased by 55.3% to 124297, and the open interest increased by 1.5% to 267331 [4]. - Yesterday, the total turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 16121 billion yuan, an increase of 1533 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed down, with the Internet service sector rising [4]. Group 3: Economic Data and Market Outlook - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP reached 660536 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. The supply side remained strong with a 6.8% year - on - year increase in industrial added value in June, while the demand side weakened, with real estate investment from January to June falling to - 11.2% and the consumer growth rate in June dropping to 4.8% [5]. - After the economic data was released, the stock index initially weakened but then showed a "V" - shaped trend. Recently, the stock index has been less sensitive to negative news, and the market trading volume and sentiment have remained strong. In the short term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly [5]. Group 4: Stock Index Futures Basis Situation - The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts for different delivery months are presented, including the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has shown a significant dulling in its reaction to negative news, with trading volume and sentiment remaining strong. The "asset shortage" and "national team" support have increased the willingness to allocate to equity assets, while "anti - involution" and real estate policy expectations have boosted market sentiment. However, due to the lack of substantial positive factors at home and abroad and the reduced discount advantage of stock index futures, it is advisable to be cautious about chasing the rise in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.42%, up 8.13bp; DR007 at 1.54%, up 6.42bp; GC001 at 1.49%, up 14.00bp; GC007 at 1.56%, up 5.50bp; SHBOR 3M at 1.56%, up 0.40bp; LPR 5 - year at 3.50%, unchanged; 1 - year treasury at 1.37%, unchanged; 5 - year treasury at 1.52%, up 0.25bp; 10 - year treasury at 1.67%, unchanged; 10 - year US treasury at 4.43%, up 8.00bp [3]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 2262 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% yesterday. With 1065 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net daily injection was 1197 billion yuan. This week, 4257 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 1000 billion yuan of MLF will mature on July 15 [3][4]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures and Spot Market - **Stock Index Futures**: IF volume was 80048, down 51.0; IF open interest was 263468, down 6.8; IH volume was 41336, down 54.4; IH open interest was down 13.2; IC volume was 66406, down 46.3; IC open interest was 227301, down 6.1; IM volume was 132782, down 50.4; IM open interest was 326601, down 8.0. The premium and discount rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts in different periods are also provided [5][8]. - **Stock Index Spot**: The CSI 300 rose 0.07% to 4017.7; the SSE 50 rose 0.04% to 2757.8; the CSI 500 fell 0.1% to 6020.9; the CSI 1000 rose 0.02% to 6462.3. The trading volume of the two markets was 14588 billion yuan, a decrease of 2534 billion yuan from last Friday. Industry sectors were mostly up, with precious metals, energy metals, etc. leading the gains, and diversified finance, gaming, etc. leading the losses [6]. 3.3 Export Data - China's exports in June increased by 5.8% year - on - year in US dollars, up from 4.8% in the previous period. During the Sino - US "reciprocal tariff" suspension period in June, Sino - US foreign trade recovered significantly, with exports to the US improving by 32.44% month - on - month to 381.7 billion US dollars, and the proportion in total exports rising from 9.12% in May to 11.74%. Exports to Africa also had a good performance. However, with the implementation of reciprocal tariff measures in August, Sino - US trade may face challenges [6].

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector experienced a significant drop of nearly 3%, leading the market decline, while the only bank AH preferred ETF (517900) with over 20% gains this year saw a surge in trading volume, reaching a three-year high [1]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The increase in trading volume at the price bottom typically indicates a potential price rise as volume increases [1]. - The recent strong adjustment in bank stocks is attributed to the fact that the market value of AH bank stocks held directly by risk capital accounts for 25% [1]. - The attractiveness of these bank stocks lies in their valuation advantage at 0.7 times the price-to-book ratio, stable dividend yield, and characteristics similar to a stabilizing fund [1]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Short-term adjustments due to overbuying may last for several weeks; however, the medium to long-term outlook remains positive due to factors such as declining risk-free interest rates and expectations of state support [1]. - The bank AH preferred ETF (517900) has a dividend yield of 6.51% as of the end of May, reflecting a rotation strategy in the AH market that prioritizes undervalued stocks [1]. - Investors can access this through linked funds (Class A: 016572; Class C: 016573) [1].

Core Insights - The A-share ETF market is experiencing underlying changes despite a seemingly calm surface, with increased participation from state-owned funds and a competitive landscape among leading brokerages [1] Group 1: Market Participation - Galaxy Securities maintains the top position in the Shanghai ETF market with a 24.63% share, showing a slight increase of 0.06 percentage points, driven by state-owned funds increasing their holdings in major ETFs [2] - Shenwan Hongyuan Securities follows with an 18.05% share, up by 0.18 percentage points, but still trails Galaxy by 6.58 percentage points, solidifying a duopoly in the market [4] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange shows a more balanced holding scale among various institutions, encouraging broader participation in the ETF ecosystem [4] Group 2: Trading Activity - Huatai Securities leads in trading activity with an 11.30% monthly share, significantly ahead of competitors, while CITIC Securities has surged to second place, outperforming the third by 1.87 percentage points [5] - Galaxy Securities saw a drop in monthly trading share to 5.71%, falling to fifth place, indicating limited adjustments by state-owned funds in May [5] - Shenwan Hongyuan, despite a strong holding position, continues to lag in trading activity, highlighting a mismatch between holdings and trading volume [5] Group 3: Emerging Trends - Smaller brokerages like Dongfang Securities and Huabao Securities are gaining traction in the ETF market, with respective monthly trading shares of 6.12% and 4.64%, ranking fourth and sixth [6] - There is a renewed interest in Hong Kong ETFs, with the return of Hongyu Information Services to the top 30 in trading volume, reflecting a resurgence in investment enthusiasm [6] Group 4: Client Engagement - The trading landscape at the brokerage level is dynamic, with notable shifts in trading volume among various branches, indicating concentrated state fund activity [7] - Huatai Securities and Dongfang Wealth continue to dominate in terms of active trading accounts, with Huatai's app enhancing its appeal to individual investors [7] - The personal client trading accounts on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange are primarily led by Dongfang Wealth, showcasing its strong retail presence [7]

今天是关键的第三天，要是能V型反转重返3400点，那就能确认3400点的突破是有效的。反之，可能还会继续震荡。 指数全线走低，行业板块和个股普遍下跌，超4400家下跌，成交量明显放大。全A半天成交9361亿，相比昨天放量1400亿，全天成交量奔着1.5万亿去了。 三、指数上涨缩量，下跌放量，这个位置，看跌，获利兑现的情绪更明显。 主力资金今天扮演砸盘的角色，仅半天主力净卖出高达470亿，主力继续净卖出机构重仓股，贵州茅台，五粮液净卖出居前。值得注意的是，今年每一次下 跌银行，四大行都护盘。 一、国家队暂停托市！上证指数这次补跌幅度挺大，在3400点以上只待了两天就下来了。没办法，国家队的大资金没出手托市，跌得深也就正常了。 本来这本是个不错的补仓机会，但市场又跌了一波，两根放量阴线已经能构成一个阶段性的顶部了。再者，沪指在这一轮反弹中，最终也没能突破5月的高 点，从技术面上看，这次反弹只是打破了5月开始的小下降通道而已。 而且，这并没有改变从去年10月开始的大下降通道，市场还是保持着一波比一波低的节奏。再看看港股，这两天回调势头很明显，今天也是放量下跌，差点 留下一个跳空缺口。从这个角度看，A股可能也容易跌难 ...