Group 1: Market Data Summary - DR001 closed at 1.32 with a -15.67bp change, DR007 at 1.53 with a -7.04bp change, GC001 at 1.36 with a -13.50bp change, and GC007 at 0.00 with a -187.00bp change [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.58 with a 0.40bp change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with a 0.00bp change [4] - 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese treasury bonds closed at 1.39 (-1.00bp), 1.63 (-0.73bp), and 1.88 (-0.78bp) respectively, while 10 - year US treasury bonds closed at 4.20 with a 2.00bp change [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 2467.4 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations and 600 billion yuan in MLF operations, with 1826.8 billion yuan in reverse repurchase and 300 billion yuan in 1 - year MLF maturing, resulting in a net injection of 940.6 billion yuan [4] - This week, 516.6 billion yuan in reverse repurchase will mature, with 240.5 billion and 276.1 billion maturing on Monday and Tuesday respectively, and 300 billion yuan in 182 - day buy - out reverse repurchase maturing on Tuesday [5] Group 2: Stock Index Market - The closing prices and changes of major stock indices: CSI 300 at 4550 (-0.95%), SSE 50 at 2941 (-0.40%), CSI 500 at 7241 (-1.37%), and CSI 1000 at 7398 (-1.45%) [6] - The closing prices and changes of index futures contracts: IF at 4543 (-0.9%), IH at 2945 (-0.3%), IC at 7203 (-1.2%), and IM at 7357 (-1.2%) [6] - Trading volume and open interest changes: IF volume decreased by 9.3% to 121085, IH volume decreased by 6.9% to 48226, IC volume increased by 4.9% to 136035, and IM volume increased by 14.2% to 242990; IF open interest decreased by 2.4% to 259924, IH open interest increased by 1.1% to 95988, IC open interest increased by 1.4% to 252224, and IM open interest increased by 3.3% to 364864 [6] - Last week, CSI 300 fell 0.44% to 4501.9, SSE 50 fell 1.98% to 2909.7, CSI 500 rose 0.32% to 7170.3, and CSI 1000 rose 0.21% to 7438.2; only the power equipment (3.9%) and electronics (3.5%) sectors in the Shenwan primary industry index rose, while banking (-0.5%), non - ferrous metals (-3.5%), non - banking finance (-0.1%), steel (-1.1%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (-2%) led the decline [6] - As of September 25, the margin trading balance in the A - share market was 2436.61 billion yuan, an increase of 46.18 billion yuan from the previous week [6] Group 3: Market Outlook and Analysis - The central bank governor stated that China's monetary policy adheres to a self - centered approach while considering internal and external balance, and will use various monetary policy tools to ensure sufficient liquidity [5] - Recently, the macro news has been calm, and the stock index has been oscillating; due to poor domestic economic data, there is a stronger expectation for policies to promote consumption, stabilize the real estate market, and expand fiscal spending [7] - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will be held in October, focusing on formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan and analyzing the current economic situation, which is worthy of attention [7] - The stock index trend remains bullish, but the policy aims to guide the A - share market to a "slow - bull" pattern, and it is recommended to adjust and go long, while controlling positions before the holiday [7] Group 4: Index Futures Premium and Discount - IF premium/discount rates: 0.00% for the current - month contract, 2.62% for the next - month contract, 2.45% for the current - quarter contract, and 2.31% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IH premium/discount rates: -2.73% for the current - month contract, -0.50% for the next - month contract, -0.51% for the current - quarter contract, and -0.04% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IC premium/discount rates: 10.16% for the current - month contract, 9.81% for the next - month contract, 9.89% for the current - quarter contract, and 9.76% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IM premium/discount rates: 10.54% for the current - month contract, 11.55% for the next - month contract, 12.54% for the current - quarter contract, and 12.13% for the next - quarter contract [8]

今天分享的是：2025混沌时刻 报告共计：20页 2025年9月债市：多空博弈激烈，市场处于"混沌时刻" 2025年9月中旬，国内债市迎来了多空力量激烈争夺定价权的关键阶段，整体呈现出"混沌时刻"的特征。以10年期国债为代表的 核心品种，利率运行箱体界限愈发清晰，当利率上行至1.80%时，多头买入力量显著增强；而当利率下行至1.75%时，空头势力 开始占据优势，多空双方围绕关键点位展开反复博弈。 当前市场交易主要聚焦两大核心逻辑：一是央行是否会重启买债操作，二是公募债基赎回费规则能否优化。从央行买债相关线 索来看，9月以来部分大型银行在中长久期利率债配置上出现明显动作，不仅净买入7-10年国债93亿元（此前已连续8个月净卖 出该品种），还同期净买入3-5年国债843亿元、7-10年政金债259亿元，二级买债偏好逐步向长久期品种倾斜。不过，类似的买 债行为在今年5-6月也曾出现，当时大行时隔多月重新在二级市场配置短债，市场一度猜想6月可能成为央行重启买债的起点， 事后却证实这只是银行内部止盈后再投资的需求，因此当前大行的操作能否与央行政策关联，仍缺乏明确结论。 公募债基赎回费优化问题同样备受关注。参考过往新规落 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The stock index trend continues to be bullish, but the policy aims to guide the A-share market to run in a "slow bull" pattern. It is recommended to adjust and go long, and control positions before the holiday. The market has policy expectations for the "922" press conference, and last year's similar press conference launched a series of policy "combinations." Last week, positive factors were mainly overseas, with positive signals from Sino-US economic and trade talks and the Fed's first interest rate cut this year being beneficial to A-shares, while domestic economic data was poor, increasing the necessity of promoting consumption, stabilizing the real estate market, and expanding fiscal policies [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Interest Rates**: DRO01 closed at 1.46 with a -4.83bp change, DR007 at 1.51 with a -4.70bp change, GC001 at 1.40 with a 17.50bp change, GC007 at 1.55 with an 8.00bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.56 with a 0.60bp change, LPR 5-year at 3.50 with a 0.00bp change, 1-year treasury at 1.41 with a 0.62bp change, 5-year treasury at 1.62 with a 2.97bp change, 10-year treasury at 1.88 with a 2.54bp change, and 10-year US treasury at 4.14 with a 3.00bp change [4] - **Stock Index Futures**: On September 22, the closing prices and changes of stock index futures were as follows:沪深300 closed at 4502 with a 0.08% change, IF当月 at 4510 with a 0.5% change, 上证50 at 2910 with a -0.11% change, IH当月 at 2918 with a 0.3% change, 中证500 at 7170 with a -0.41% change, IC当月 at 7182 with a 0.1% change, 中证1000 at 7438 with a -0.51% change, IM当月 at 7448 with a -0.1% change. The trading volume and open interest of IF decreased by 25.9 and 11.0 respectively, IH by 33.1 and 16.6, IC by 20.6 and 9.2, and IM by 25.7 and 10.1 [6] - **Stock Market Review**: The previous day's closing, 沪深300 fell 0.21% to 4523.3, 上证50 fell 0.5% to 2947.8, 中证500 rose 0.75% to 7191, 中证1000 rose 0.92% to 7483.6. The trading volume of the two markets reached 31352 billion, a significant increase of 7584 billion. Most industry sectors fell, while the automobile service and tourism hotel sectors strengthened, and the precious metals, energy metals, non-ferrous metals, real estate services, diversified finance, small metals, and securities sectors led the decline [6] - **Open Market Operations**: Last week, the central bank had 12645 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 1200 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed deposits due. It conducted 18268 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, 1500 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed deposit operations, and 6000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations, with a net full - caliber injection of 11923 billion yuan. This week, 18268 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 3000 billion yuan of MLF will mature on September 25 [4][5] Market Expectations - The market has policy expectations for the "922" press conference. Last year's similar press conference launched a series of policy "combinations" including comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, stock repurchase re - loans, and securities - fund - insurance company swap facilities [7] Ascending and Descending Water Conditions - The ascending and descending water conditions of stock index futures contracts are as follows: IF升贴水 for the next - month contract is 4.65%, the current - quarter contract is 3.42%, and the next - quarter contract is 2.77%; IH升贴水 for the next - month contract is - 1.67%, the current - quarter contract is - 0.52%, and the next - quarter contract is - 0.38%; IC升贴水 for the next - month contract is 12.79%, the current - quarter contract is 10.66%, and the next - quarter contract is 9.85%; IM升贴水 for the next - month contract is 17.81%, the current - quarter contract is 13.64%, and the next - quarter contract is 12.51% [8]

Group 1: Market Interest Rates - DROO1 closed at 1.49 with a 4.43bp increase, DR007 closed at 1.54 with a 4.26bp increase [3] - GC001 closed at 1.63 with an 8.50bp decrease, GC007 closed at 1.56 with a 3.00bp decrease [3] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.55 with a 0.10bp increase, LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50 [3] - 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.40 with a 0.25bp decrease, 5 - year treasury bond closed at 1.53 with a 2.15bp decrease [3] - 10 - year treasury bond closed at 1.76 with a 1.75bp decrease, 10 - year US treasury bond closed at 4.04 with a 1.00bp decrease [3] Group 2: Central Bank Operations and Liquidity - The central bank conducted 4185 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 3040 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 1145 billion yuan [3] - Due to tax period, inter - bank liquidity tightened, overnight weighted average rate rose to 1.43%, 7 - day weighted average rate rose to 1.54% [3] - This week, 12645 billion yuan of central bank's open - market reverse repurchases will mature, and 1200 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit will mature on Monday [3] Group 3: Stock Index Performance - CSI 300 closed at 4551 with a 0.61% increase, IF current - month contract closed at 4553 with a 0.8% increase [4] - SSE 50 closed at 2953 with a 0.17% increase, IH current - month contract closed at 2956 with a 0.2% increase [4] - CSI 500 closed at 7260 with a 0.96% increase, IC current - month contract closed at 7252 with a 1.2% increase [4] - CSI 1000 closed at 7555 with a 0.95% increase, IM current - month contract closed at 7547 with a 1.1% increase [4] - IF trading volume was 162499 with a 5.9% increase, IF open interest was 273912 with a 1.0% decrease [4] - IH trading volume was 64759 with an 8.8% increase, IH open interest was 104771 with a 4.0% increase [4] - IC trading volume was 163824 with a 1.4% increase, IC open interest was 252071 with a 4.1% decrease [4] - IM trading volume was 285903 with a 9.1% increase, IM open interest was 379348 with a 0.2% decrease [4] Group 4: Market Review and Outlook - The previous day, CSI 300 fell 0.21% to 4523.3, SSE 50 fell 0.5% to 2947.8, CSI 500 rose 0.75% to 7191, CSI 1000 rose 0.92% to 7483.6 [4] - Most industry sectors rose, with diversified finance, wind power equipment, etc. leading the gains, and precious metals, commercial department stores, etc. leading the losses [4] - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 23767 billion yuan, a slight increase of 353 billion yuan from the previous day [4] - Policies are guiding the further growth of service consumption, and the Ministry of Commerce will introduce more targeted policies [5] - The stock index fluctuated and rose, market sentiment remained good, mid - and small - cap stocks performed better, and the strategy is to go long on dips [5] Group 5: Futures Contract Premium and Discount - IF premium/discount rates were - 8.73% for the current - month contract, 2.47% for the next - month contract, 2.83% for the current - quarter contract, and 2.54% for the next - quarter contract [6] - IH premium/discount rates were - 21.15% for the current - month contract, - 1.16% for the next - month contract, - 0.40% for the current - quarter contract, and - 0.38% for the next - quarter contract [6] - IC premium/discount rates were 19.19% for the current - month contract, 10.56% for the next - month contract, 9.68% for the current - quarter contract, and 9.40% for the next - quarter contract [6] - IM premium/discount rates were 18.87% for the current - month contract, 12.02% for the next - month contract, 11.60% for the current - quarter contract, and 11.25% for the next - quarter contract [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The necessity of policy support for the economy has increased as the economic data from January to August shows varying degrees of weakness in industrial production, investment, and consumption [6] - With a dense schedule of domestic and foreign macro - events this week, investors should control risks in stock index positions and mainly adjust for long - positions [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Interest Rate Data - DR001 closed at 1.41 with a 4.93bp increase, DR007 at 1.48 with a 2.57bp increase, GC001 at 1.36 with a 0.50bp decrease, and GC007 at 1.49 with a 3.00bp increase [3] - SHBOR 3M remained at 1.55, LPR 5 - year at 3.50, 1 - year treasury at 1.40 with a 0.25bp decrease, 5 - year treasury at 1.61 with a 0.45bp increase, 10 - year treasury at 1.80 with a 1.05bp increase, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.06 with a 5.00bp increase [3] - The central bank conducted 280 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 191.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 88.5 billion yuan [3] - This week, 1.2645 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, and 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits will mature on Monday [4] Stock Index Market Data - The CSI 300 rose 0.24% to 4533.1, the SSE 50 fell 0.2% to 2962.6, the CSI 500 fell 0.15% to 7137.4, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.1% to 7415.6 [5] - The trading volume of the two - stock markets was 2.2774 trillion yuan, a decrease of 243.5 billion yuan from the previous trading day [5] - Industry sectors had more decliners than gainers, with game, agriculture, fishery, automobile, power equipment, and auto parts sectors leading the gains, and precious metals, jewelry, small metals, electronic chemicals, and aerospace sectors leading the losses [5] Stock Index Futures Data - IF contracts: The current - month contract closed at 4528 with a 0.1% increase, the trading volume was 137,764 with a 7.3% decrease, and the open interest was 267,459 with a 4.0% decrease [5] - IH contracts: The current - month contract closed at 2962 with a 0.2% decrease, the trading volume was 25,348 with a 15.2% decrease, and the open interest was 98,524 with a 1.5% decrease [5] - IC contracts: The current - month contract closed at 7114 with a 0.4% decrease, the trading volume was 137,356 with a 21.9% decrease, and the open interest was 249,632 with a 6.8% decrease [5] - IM contracts: The current - month contract closed at 7369 with a 0.3% decrease, the trading volume was 194,389 with a 19.3% decrease, and the open interest was 356,703 with a 4.2% decrease [5] Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount Data - IF premium/discount rates for current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 10.58%, 3.34%, 3.06%, and 2.72% respectively [7] - IH premium/discount rates were 0.66%, - 0.07%, 0.00%, and - 0.09% respectively [7] - IC premium/discount rates were 29.61%, 13.93%, 10.66%, and 9.82% respectively [7] - IM premium/discount rates were 57.80%, 17.62%, 14.11%, and 12.72% respectively [7]

Report Overall Information - Report Title: Macro Financial Data Daily Report [3] - Report Date: September 5, 2025 [4] - Researcher: Zheng Yuting from the Macro Financial Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [4] - Futures Practicing License Number: F3074875; Investment Consulting License Number: Z0017779 [4] Market Conditions Money Market - DR001 closed at 1.31% with a -0.01bp change; DR007 at 1.44% with a 0.40bp change [4] - GC001 closed at 1.01% with a 1.50bp change; GC007 at 1.44% with a -2.50bp change [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.55% with a 0.10bp change; LPR 5-year remained at 3.50% [4] - 1-year treasury bond closed at 1.37% with a 0.23bp change; 5-year at 1.60% with a -2.52bp change [4] - 10-year treasury bond closed at 1.81% with a -1.69bp change; 10-year US treasury bond at 4.28% with a 5.00bp change [4] - The central bank conducted 212.6 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 416.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 203.5 billion yuan [4] - This week, there are 2.2731 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the central bank's open market, and 1 trillion yuan of 91-day outright reverse repurchases will mature on Friday [5] Stock Market - The CSI 300 closed at 4365, down 2.12%; the SSE 50 at 2910, down 1.71%; the CSI 500 at 6698.4, down 2.48%; the CSI 1000 at 7206.9, down 1.46% [6] - The trading volume of the two stock markets reached 2.5443 trillion yuan, an increase of 180.2 billion yuan from the previous day [6] - Industry sectors mostly declined, with consumer sectors such as department stores, beauty care, food and beverages, and tourism hotels leading the gains, while semiconductor, communication equipment, electronic chemicals, small metals, aerospace, and electronic components sectors leading the losses [6] - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased across the board, with IF volume up 9.4%, IH volume up 17.8%, IC volume up 16.8%, and IM volume up 13.3% [6] Core Views - Recently, the risk aversion sentiment of funds has risen, and some funds have chosen to take profits, leading to the adjustment of stock indexes [6] - Domestically, the marginal changes are limited recently, and the incremental policies are in a relative vacuum state. The latest August China Manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly to 49.4%, indicating that the economy still has certain resilience [6] - Overseas, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has increased [6] - Strategically, the short-term adjustment of stock indexes may bring opportunities for long positions [6] Futures Basis Information - The basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts for different delivery months are provided, with specific values and annualized rates noted [6]

Group 1 - The stock market shows a strong trend while the bond market faces challenges, leading to a "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds [1][4] - The yield on 10-year and 30-year government bonds has increased by 14 basis points and 23 basis points respectively since early July, reaching 1.7818% and 2.0775% [1] - The bond market sentiment remains cautious despite a slight recovery potential as the 10-year government bond yield approaches the 1.8% mark [4] Group 2 - The macroeconomic fundamentals of the bond market have not changed significantly, with weak financing demand and a reasonably ample liquidity environment providing support [2] - In July, social financing continued to show a divergence in total and structural characteristics, with government bond issuance being a major contributor while real financing demand remains weak [2] - Economic data for July indicates weakening demand pressures, with notable declines in investment, particularly in infrastructure and manufacturing [2][3] Group 3 - The current economic strength suggests that achieving annual growth targets is not overly pressured, with rising commodity prices contributing to a rebound in inflation expectations [3] - The monetary policy is in a "comfortable zone," with no immediate motivation for active easing, and the probability of rate cuts further decreasing in the third quarter [3] - Recent policies aimed at supporting personal consumption loans and service industry loans reflect a coordinated effort between fiscal and monetary policies to boost consumption and stabilize employment [3][4] Group 4 - A new "quasi-fiscal" tool worth 500 billion yuan is set to be implemented, focusing on emerging industries and infrastructure, which can enhance effective investment [4] - The market has experienced three phases since the beginning of the year: tightening liquidity in Q1, a dual bull market in Q2, and a renewed "see-saw" effect in Q3 driven by strong policy support [4] - The future of the "see-saw" market trend will depend on whether the positive expectations for the economic fundamentals can translate into reality and the direction of monetary policy [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the changes in the pricing of the 10-year government bond yield based on the monetary policy interest rate transmission framework, indicating a trend of narrowing the spread between the 10-year government bond yield and the 7-day reverse repurchase rate due to persistent interest rate cut expectations and a compression of long-term bond term premiums [2][41]. Group 1: Long-term Trends - The long-term trend suggests that the spread between the 10-year government bond yield and the 7-day reverse repurchase rate is likely to narrow, primarily due to a "re-anchoring" of the 10-year bond yield and a systematic decline in long-term bond term premiums as economic uncertainty decreases [2][41]. - The narrowing of the spread is influenced by the ongoing expectations of interest rate cuts and a compression of long-term bond term premiums, as the domestic economy transitions to a high-quality development phase with reduced volatility [6][41]. Group 2: Short-term Dynamics - In the short term, the extent of the spread's increase depends on the upward elasticity of the fundamentals, with historical data indicating that a significant widening of the spread requires confirmation of a bottom in the fundamentals and a tightening of narrow liquidity [4][41]. - Current leading indicators in the domestic economy have shown signs of recovery, but their ability to drive economic and inflation growth remains uncertain, as social financing to GDP has rebounded primarily due to low inflation affecting nominal GDP [42][41]. Group 3: Market Expectations - The market's expectation of future interest rate cuts is reflected in the bond market, where the 1-year government bond yield has remained below the 7-day reverse repurchase rate since 2024, indicating a persistent expectation of rate cuts [32][41]. - The compression of term premiums is another underlying reason for the low spread between the 10-year government bond yield and the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, driven by a consensus among market participants regarding weak expectations for income, housing prices, and inflation [37][41]. Group 4: Future Projections - It is projected that the spread between the 10-year government bond yield and the 7-day reverse repurchase rate will not rise significantly in the next 2-3 quarters, with expectations of only a slight increase to 40-50 basis points, and if the 7-day reverse repurchase rate is cut by 10-15 basis points, the 10-year government bond yield may fluctuate between 1.65% and 1.8% [5][46].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the upward speed of the stock index may slow down after the phased realization of macro - positive factors, and market fluctuations and adjustments should be watched out for. In the long run, the futures index market this year is mainly driven by valuation expansion, and the valuation factor is expected to continue to play a role. It is advisable to go long on the stock index opportunistically this week [7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Interest Rate and Bond Market - The closing prices and changes of various interest rate varieties are as follows: DRO01 closed at 1.31, down 8.18bp; DR007 at 1.42, down 13.00bp; GC001 at 1.29, up 26.00bp; GC007 at 1.46, up 3.00bp; SHBOR 3M at 1.56, down 0.30bp; LPR 5 - year at 3.50, unchanged; 1 - year treasury bond at 1.37, down 0.73bp; 5 - year treasury bond at 1.57, down 0.23bp; 10 - year treasury bond at 1.71, up 0.60bp; 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.23, down 14.00bp [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 1.6632 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase operations in the open market, with 1.6563 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases due, resulting in a net investment of 6.9 billion yuan. This week, 1.6632 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will expire, with 495.8 billion, 449.2 billion, 309 billion, 283.2 billion, and 126 billion yuan expiring from Monday to Friday respectively [4][5] Stock Index Market - Stock index closing prices and changes compared to the previous day: CSI 300 closed at 4055, down 0.51%; SSE 50 at 2754, down 0.79%; CSI 500 at 6213, down 0.21%; CSI 1000 at 6670, up 0.14%. For index futures, IF当月 closed at 4043, down 0.7%; IH当月 at 2754, down 0.8%; IC当月 at 6166, down 0.4%; IM当月 at 6617, up 0.1% [6] - Last week, CSI 300 fell 1.75% to 4054.9; SSE 50 fell 1.48% to 2754.1; CSI 500 fell 1.37% to 6213.2; CSI 1000 fell 0.54% to 6670.5. In the Shenwan primary industry index, last week, the pharmaceutical and biological (2.9%), communication (2.5%), media (1.1%), electronics (0.3%), and social services (0.1%) sectors led the gains, while most sectors declined, with non - ferrous metals (-4.6%), real estate (-3.4%), transportation (-3.2%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (-3%), and power equipment (-2.6%) leading the losses [6] - The IF, IH, IC, and IM index futures have different levels of premium and discount for different contracts. For example, IF's premium and discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 9.10%, 0.00%, 0.01%, and 3.41% respectively [8]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View - After consecutive strong rallies, with the phased realization of macro - level positives, the upward speed of stock indices may slow down, and market volatility and adjustments should be watched out for [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market and Operation - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.40% with an 8.17bp increase, DR007 at 1.55% with a 3.67bp increase, GC001 at 1.03% with a 75.00bp decrease, GC007 at 1.43% with a 19.50bp decrease, SHBOR 3M at 1.57% with a 0.20bp increase, LPR 5 - year at 3.50% with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.37% with a 1.25bp decrease, 5 - year treasury at 1.56% with a 1.25bp decrease, 10 - year treasury at 1.71% with a 1.50bp decrease, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.38% with a 4.00bp increase [3]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 2832 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 3310 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 478 billion yuan. This week, there are 16563 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, but government bond issuances and certificate of deposit maturities are lower than last week, and month - end fiscal expenditures may speed up, which could bring incremental funds to the inter - bank market [3]. Stock Index Market - **Index Performance**: The CSI 300 closed at 4076 with a 1.82% decrease, the SSE 50 at 2776 with a 1.54% decrease, the CSI 500 at 6226 with a 1.40% decrease, and the CSI 1000 at 6661 with a 0.85% decrease. The trading volume of the two markets was 19360 billion yuan, an increase of 918 billion yuan from the previous day. Industry sectors generally declined, with energy metals, steel, coal, mining, photovoltaic equipment, real estate development, shipbuilding, precious metals, and chemical fiber industries leading the decline [3]. - **Futures Contracts**: IF's current - month contract closed at 4070 with a 1.8% decrease, IH's at 2777 with a 1.6% decrease, IC's at 6187 with a 1.3% decrease, and IM's at 6612 with a 0.9% decrease. IF's trading volume was 156196 with a 13.2% increase, IH's was 75925 with a 7.0% increase, IC's was 119559 with a 13.6% increase, and IM's was 267774 with a 15.8% increase. IF's open interest was 270987 with a 1.4% decrease, IH's decreased, IC's was 227163 with a 1.2% decrease, and IM's was 348264 with a 0.5% increase [3]. - **Premium and Discount**: IF's current - month contract had a premium of 3.10%, IH's had a discount of - 1.23%, IC's had a premium of 15.22%, and IM's had a premium of 17.89% [5].