Group 1: Market Data and Trends - DR001 closed at 1.27 with a -3.75 bp change, DR007 at 1.43 with a 0.05 bp change, GC001 at 1.31 with a -20.50 bp change, and GC007 at 1.46 with a -3.00 bp change [3] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.51 with a -0.20 bp change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with a 0.00 bp change [3] - 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.39 with a -1.00 bp change, 5 - year at 1.67 with a 0.60 bp change, 10 - year at 1.96 with a 0.20 bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.35 with a -9.00 bp change [3] - The central bank conducted 325 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 175 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 150 billion yuan [3] - The weighted average interest rate of DR001 in the inter - bank market remained around 1.31%, and the central bank held a financial stability work meeting to improve risk prevention and resolution systems [4] Group 2: Stock Index Performance - The CSI 300 closed at 4450 with a -0.93% change, the SSE 50 at 2826 with a -0.25% change, the CSI 500 at 7617 with a -1.76% change, and the CSI 1000 at 7620 with a -1.91% change [5] - The trading volume of IF increased by 3.1% to 97664, and its open interest increased by 1.7% to 257846; the trading volume of IH increased by 4.0% to 47813, and its open interest increased by 0.1% to 101567; the trading volume of IC increased by 4.4% to 166503, and its open interest increased by 4.8% to 294843; the trading volume of IM decreased by 1.5% to 233473, and its open interest increased by 1.7% to 393494 [5] - The turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2006.1 billion yuan, an increase of 78.3 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed down, with the automotive service and aerospace equipment sectors leading the gains, and the coal, wind power equipment, battery, energy metals, electronic chemicals, agro - chemical products, photovoltaic equipment, chemical raw materials, and semiconductor sectors leading the losses [5] Group 3: Market Outlook and Strategy - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East suppressed market risk appetite. After a rebound on Monday, stock indices oscillated and declined again on Tuesday, maintaining a weak pattern. In the short term, the overseas geopolitical situation may continue to suppress stock index trends, but after a significant market decline, the possibility of policy support has increased, and the further decline space of stock indices is expected to be limited [6] - The strategy is to focus on long - position layout opportunities after the geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East ease, and pay attention to position control [6] Group 4: Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount - The premium and discount rates of IF for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 7.84%, 2.96%, 7.61%, and 7.51% respectively [7] - The premium and discount rates of IH for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 1.31%, 0.50%, 3.57%, and 4.68% respectively [7] - The premium and discount rates of IC for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 11.76%, 9.68%, 11.52%, and 10.14% respectively [7] - The premium and discount rates of IM for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 13.03%, 12.97%, 14.40%, and 12.88% respectively [7]

Group 1: Market Data Summary - DR001 closed at 1.32 with a 0.09 bp increase, DR007 at 1.44 with a 0.10 bp decrease, GC001 at 1.38 with a 7.00 bp decrease, and GC007 at 1.55 with a 0.50 bp decrease [3] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.51 with a 0.20 bp decrease, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.43 with a 0.50 bp decrease, 5 - year treasury at 1.70 with a 0.30 bp decrease, 10 - year treasury at 1.97 with a 0.05 bp decrease, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.33 with a 6.00 bp decrease [3] - The central bank conducted 2240 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 2110 billion yuan as 130 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase matured [3] Group 2: Market Commentary - The inter - bank market liquidity remains stable and loose, with the weighted average interest rate of DR001 around 1.32%. The central bank will conduct 5000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations on March 25, 2026 [4] - The macro news was calm yesterday, and the stock index rebounded and then filled the gap. External shocks still exist, but due to the marginal change in the US attitude and the possible directional opening of the Strait of Hormuz, there is a short - term breathing and easing window for the capital market. The probability of a short - term over - sold rebound of the stock index has increased. In the domestic market, after the sharp decline, the possibility of policy support has risen, and the further decline space of the stock index is limited. In the long - term, the stock index is still bullish [6] Group 3: Stock Index Futures Data - The CSI 300 fell 1.32% to 4477.5, the SSE 50 fell 1.22% to 2824.7, the CSI 500 fell 1.62% to 7642.1, and the CSI 1000 fell 1.44% to 7639.4. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 19571 billion yuan, a decrease of 2359 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed lower, with the energy metals sector rising against the trend and sectors such as insurance, wind power equipment, and photovoltaic equipment leading the decline [5] - The trading volume and positions of IF, IH, and IC decreased, while the trading volume of IM decreased and its positions increased [5] - The IF, IH, IC, and IM all showed different degrees of premium or discount in different contracts [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint - The inter - bank market liquidity remains stable and loose, with the DR001 weighted average interest rate around 1.32%. The central bank carried out 5000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations on March 25, 2026, to maintain sufficient liquidity in the banking system [3][4] - After Trump changed his tough stance, the market is trading the possibility of US - Iran negotiations. Iran's statement that non - belligerent vessels can pass through the Strait of Hormuz safely has further boosted risk appetite, and stock index continued to rebound. Although external shocks still exist, the probability of a short - term oversold rebound in the stock index has increased. In the long - term, the stock index is still bullish [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.32%, down 0.23bp; DR007 closed at 1.44%, up 3.26bp; GC001 closed at 1.45%, down 0.50bp; GC007 closed at 1.56%, down 0.50bp; SHBOR 3M closed at 1.52%, down 0.05bp; LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50%; 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.45%, down 0.50bp; 5 - year treasury bond closed at 1.67%, unchanged; 10 - year treasury bond closed at 1.97%, down 0.10bp; 10 - year US treasury bond closed at 4.39%, up 5.00bp [3] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 785 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40%. The net investment on the day was 580 billion yuan after deducting the 205 billion yuan of reverse repurchase due. Also, 4500 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF matured, and the central bank will conduct 5000 billion yuan of MLF operations [3] 3.2 Stock Index Data - **Stock Index Performance**: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 1.4% to 4537.5; the Shanghai 50 rose 1.01% to 2859.5; the CSI 500 rose 2.24% to 7767.7; the CSI 1000 rose 1.98% to 7751.2. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing stock markets was 2.19 trillion yuan, an increase of 96.8 billion yuan from the previous day [5] - **Futures Contracts**: IF当月 closed at 4506, up 1.3%; IH当月 closed at 2848, up 0.8%; IC当月 closed at 7686, up 1.7%; IM当月 closed at 7650, up 1.3%. IF trading volume was 102,275, down 13.0%; IF open interest was 260,543, down 1.3%; IH trading volume was 51,519, down 12.9%; IH open interest was 103,242, down 3.0%; IC trading volume was 176,384, down 9.7%; IC open interest was 285,815, down 2.9%; IM trading volume was 223,852, down 23.5%; IM open interest was 375,608, down 6.8% [4] - **Futures Premium and Discount**: IF升贴水 for next - month, next - quarter, current - quarter and current - month contracts were 11.14%, 5.03%, 8.18% and 7.87% respectively; IH升贴水 were 6.40%, 2.89%, 4.38% and 4.78% respectively; IC升贴水 were 16.77%, 12.68%, 12.99% and 10.96% respectively; IM升贴水 were 20.72%, 15.23%, 14.99% and 13.25% respectively [6]

Group 1: Interest Rates - DRO01 increased by 1.32bp, DR007 decreased by 1.44bp, GC001 decreased by 3.50bp, GC007 increased by 6.50bp, SHBOR 3M decreased by 0.22bp, 1 - year Treasury increased by 1.44bp, 5 - year Treasury decreased by 0.40bp, 10 - year Treasury increased by 1.97bp, and 10 - year US Treasury decreased by 5.00bp [3] - The central bank conducted 175 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40%, and 510 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 335 billion yuan [3] - This week, 2423 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 4500 billion yuan of MLF will mature on Wednesday [3] Group 2: Stock Indexes - The CSI 300 rose 1.28% to 4474.7, the SSE 50 rose 1.38% to 2830.9, the CSI 500 rose 2.11% to 7597.4, and the CSI 1000 rose 2.59% to 7600.9 [3] - The trading volume of the three major stock markets in Beijing was 2096.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 352.3 billion yuan from the previous day [3] - Industry sectors all rose, with ground military equipment, power, trade, environmental protection, medical services, decoration building materials, industrial metals, public utilities, professional engineering, power grid equipment, and textile and clothing sectors leading the gains [3] - Due to the repeated situation in the Middle East and market rumors of US - Iran negotiations, the risk preference significantly increased, and the stock index rebounded. Although external shocks still exist, the stock index is expected to fluctuate. The postponement of Trump's ultimatum provides a short - term breathing window, increasing the probability of a short - term oversold rebound. The possibility of policy support has increased, and the stock index is expected to have limited further decline and is bullish in the long - term [3] Group 3: Futures Contracts - For IF, the volume decreased by 25.1%, and the open interest decreased by 4.7%; for IH, the volume decreased by 24.6%, and the open interest decreased by 7.8%; for IC, the volume decreased by 10.3%; for IM, the volume decreased by 10.0% [3] - IF had a discount of 8.61% in the current - month contract, 3.97% in the next - month contract, 8.09% in the current - quarter contract, and 7.77% in the next - quarter contract; IH had a discount of 2.50% in the current - month contract, 1.15% in the next - month contract, 3.00% in the current - quarter contract, and 4.19% in the next - quarter contract; IC had a discount of 8.52% in the current - month contract, 10.46% in the next - month contract, 10.37% in the current - quarter contract, and 9.66% in the next - quarter contract; IM had a discount of 11.84% in the current - month contract, 9.66% in the next - month contract, 11.79% in the current - quarter contract, and 11.53% in the next - quarter contract [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, it is expected that the stock index will continue the range - bound pattern. In the long - term, with the economic tone in line with expectations, multiple policies working together to promote economic growth, abundant macro - liquidity, and capital market policies aiming to support a "slow - bull" market, the stock index is expected to have upward space and may resume an upward trend as the external geopolitical situation eases and market risk appetite recovers. It is recommended to consider building long positions using the advantage of stock index futures discounts for medium - to - long - term investment and pay attention to position control [6] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Macro - financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.32% with a - 0.14bp change, DR007 at 1.43% with a - 0.16bp change, GC001 at 1.36% with a - 11.00bp change, GC007 at 1.49% with a - 3.00bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.53% with a - 0.38bp change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50% with no change, 1 - year treasury bond at 1.25% with a - 0.50bp change, 5 - year treasury bond at 1.55% with a - 1.60bp change, 10 - year treasury bond at 1.83% with a - 0.81bp change, and 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.20% with a - 3.00bp change [3] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 205 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% yesterday. 265 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 60 billion yuan. This week, 1765 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with 485 billion, 395 billion, 265 billion, 245 billion, and 375 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively. Since March, the liquidity market has been generally loose, and the weighted average interest rate of DR001 has remained around 1.32% [3][4] 2. Stock Index Data - **Index Performance**: The CSI 300 rose 0.45% to 4658.3, the SSE 50 fell 0.07% to 2961.4, the CSI 500 rose 1% to 8096.4, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.96% to 8096.6. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.06 trillion yuan, a decrease of 163.5 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors rose, with communication services, components, communication equipment, semiconductors, optoelectronics, software development, computer equipment, power grid equipment, and consumer electronics sectors leading the gains, while the liquor, energy metals, and petroleum and petrochemical sectors leading the losses [5] - **Futures Contracts**: For IF, the closing price of the current - month contract was 4651 with a 0.5% change, trading volume was 141,186 with a - 3.3% change, and open interest was 275,425 with a - 1.8% change; for IH, the closing price of the current - month contract was 2959 with a - 0.1% change, trading volume was 54,518 with a - 21.1% change, and open interest was 104,462 with a - 2.0% change; for IC, the closing price of the current - month contract was 8086 with a 1.1% change, trading volume was 170,100 with a - 0.1% change, and open interest was 296,892 with a 0.9% change; for IM, the closing price of the current - month contract was 8080 with a 0.8% change, trading volume was 253,973 with a 7.8% change, and open interest was 389,812 with a 2.0% change [5] 3. Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount - The premium and discount rates of IF for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 27.16%, 7.19%, 7.48%, and 7.33% respectively; for IH, they were 17.42%, 2.64%, 2.55%, and 3.75% respectively; for IC, they were 23.50%, 9.83%, 10.28%, and 9.36% respectively; for IM, they were 36.50%, 11.33%, 12.22%, and 11.61% respectively [7]

Key Information from the Research Report 1. Market Data and Trends - **Interest Rates**: DRO01 closed at 1.32 with a -0.58bp change, DR007 at 1.46 with -0.88bp, GC001 at 1.18 with -28.00bp, GC007 at 1.50 with -2.00bp, SHBOR 3M at 1.54 with -0.40bp, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with 0.00bp, 1 - year treasury at 1.28 with 0.67bp, 5 - year treasury at 1.56 with 0.55bp, 10 - year treasury at 1.81 with 0.76bp, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.27 with 6.00bp [4] - **Stock Indexes**: Last week, CSI 300 rose 0.19% to 4669.1, SSE 50 fell 1.2% to 2956.8, CSI 500 fell 1.44% to 8239.8, and CSI 1000 fell 0.42% to 8214.3. This week, CSI 300 closed at 4669 with -0.39%, SSE 50 at 2957 with -0.50%, CSI 500 at 8240 with -1.43%, and CSI 1000 at 8214 with -1.46% [5] - **Stock Index Futures**: IF volume was 105420 with 7.5% change, IF open interest was 271580 with 0.9% change; IH volume was 40231 with -4.4% change, IH open interest was 104055 with -2.9% change; IC volume was 143226 with 1.2% change, IC open interest was 292785 with -1.0% change; IM volume was 202030 with 7.6% change, IM open interest was 376110 with 0.2% change [5] - **Industry Indexes**: Last week, power equipment (4.6%), building decoration (4.1%), public utilities (3.1%), banks (1.4%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (1%) led the gains, while national defense and military industry (-6.6%), comprehensive (-4.3%), non - ferrous metals (-3.7%), media (-3.2%), and machinery and equipment (-2.4%) led the losses [5] - **Stock Trading Volume**: Last week's A - share daily trading volumes were 26706 billion yuan, 24168 billion yuan, 25283 billion yuan, 24606 billion yuan, and 24173 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume decrease of 456.3 billion yuan compared to the previous week [5] 2. Central Bank Operations - **Last Week**: The central bank conducted 176.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 277.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 101.1 billion yuan. Also, 150 billion yuan of 1 - month treasury cash fixed - term deposits matured [4] - **This Week**: 176.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with 48.5 billion, 39.5 billion, 26.5 billion, 24.5 billion, and 37.5 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively. Additionally, 600 billion yuan of 182 - day repurchase - style reverse repurchases will mature on Monday. The central bank conducted 500 billion yuan of repurchase - style reverse repurchases on March 16, with a contraction scale of 100 billion yuan [5] 3. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Geopolitical and Economic Events**: Uncertainty remains in the Middle East conflict, with multiple countries in initial contact with Iran for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. High overseas imported inflation risk exists due to oil price fluctuations. China and the US will hold economic and trade consultations in France [6] - **Stock Index Outlook**: Last week, stock indexes were weakly volatile. In the future, as external inflation pressure eases and market risk appetite recovers, stock indexes are expected to consolidate and resume an upward trend. For the medium - to - long - term, consider building long positions using the discount advantage of stock index futures [6] 4. Futures Premium and Discount - **IF Premium/Discount**: The current - month contract has a 17.42% premium, next - month 6.14%, current - quarter 6.97%, and next - quarter 6.72% [7] - **IH Premium/Discount**: The current - month contract has a - 0.38% discount, next - month 0.62%, current - quarter 1.42%, and next - quarter 3.32% [7] - **IC Premium/Discount**: The current - month contract has a 23.03% premium, next - month 10.04%, current - quarter 9.64%, and next - quarter 8.92% [7] - **IM Premium/Discount**: The current - month contract has a 24.25% premium, next - month 13.02%, current - quarter 12.18%, and next - quarter 11.13% [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term end of the bond market, especially the inter - bank certificate of deposit (NCD) rate, has approached historical lows, and the analysis and judgment of it have little meaning due to the narrowing of fluctuations and changes in supply - demand structure [1][2][24]. - For the long - term end, the bond market shows a dull performance. Without clear monetary policy easing actions, the downward overdraft trading of long - term yields won't go far, and there is no obvious upward adjustment risk either [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Near - historical low NCDs: How to view? **1.1 Situation of Long - term and Short - term Bond Yields** - Long - term: During the period around the Two Sessions, the 30 - year ultra - long - term interest rate was weak, while the 10 - year interest rate was stable. The bond market was insensitive to both risk - aversion sentiment and inflation concerns. Without clear monetary policy easing, long - term yields had no significant upward or downward trends [9]. - Short - term: The NCD rate has approached historical lows. The 1 - year NCD of state - owned and joint - stock banks and the yields of bank financial bonds and 3 - year CDB bonds declined synchronously and slowly. The 1 - year NCD of state - owned and joint - stock banks had a first - level issuance and second - level price around 1.55%, close to the historical low of 1.54% in 2020. The decline in NCD and short - term interest rates compressed the spread with the capital interest rate [12]. **1.2 Changes in NCD Supply - demand Structure** - Supply side: The NCD stock has significantly decreased, with state - owned and joint - stock banks reducing about 3 trillion. Since 2024, state - owned banks have become the main suppliers. However, since the second half of 2025, the net financing of NCDs has been continuously negative. The low willingness of banks to issue NCDs is due to changes in the liability situation, such as the narrowing of the broad liability gap and the improvement of the deposit side. Additionally, central bank injections and inter - bank deposits can replace NCDs [14][15][18]. - Demand side: Product accounts maintain their NCD allocations, while banks actively reduce their holdings. Product accounts like bank wealth management and money market funds maintain stable NCD investments, while banks' NCD holdings have significantly decreased, which is related to the lack of spread space and the extrusion of idle funds after the tightening of inter - bank self - discipline [22]. **1.3 Pricing and Significance of NCDs** - The reasonable pricing of NCDs may be concentrated in the narrow range of 1.55% - 1.6%. There may be windows below 1.55%, but it loses the meaning of investment gaming. If the rate goes up, it will be when all maturities and varieties of interest rates face upward risks. With the narrowing of capital fluctuations, short - term products including NCDs have lost their "activity", and the significance of analysis and judgment is small [1][24]. 2. Risk Outlook No content other than risk warnings is provided in this part, so it is skipped.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall domestic and overseas macro - environment in China remains stable. Domestically, the approaching "Two Sessions" brings positive policy expectations that strongly support the market. Overseas, the planned visit of Trump from March 31 to April 2 and the potential Sino - US summit reduce the short - term possibility of trade risks. The risk preference of the equity market is expected to remain strong. It is recommended to continue holding long - term long positions in stock index futures [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Macro - financial Data - DRO01 closed at 1.37, down 1.71bp from the previous value; DR007 closed at 1.48, down 2.31bp [3] - GC001 closed at 1.55, unchanged; GC007 closed at 1.59, down 0.50bp [3] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.57, down 0.30bp; LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50, unchanged [3] - 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.30, unchanged; 5 - year treasury bond closed at 1.54, down 0.20bp; 10 - year treasury bond closed at 1.79, down 2.10bp; 10 - year US treasury bond closed at 4.05, up 1.00bp [3] - The central bank conducted 320.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% yesterday. The bid volume, winning bid volume were both 320.5 billion yuan. With 400 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net withdrawal on the day was 79.5 billion yuan [3] - In February, the LPR rate remained unchanged: the 1 - year LPR was 3.0%, and the 5 - year and above LPR was 3.5%. During the week after the Spring Festival holiday (February 24 - 28), 2.2524 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market. Additionally, 300 billion yuan of MLF and 150 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits will mature on February 25 [4] 3.2 Stock Index Futures Market - The CSI 300 closed at 4727, down 0.19%; IF current - month contract closed at 4712, down 0.4% [5] - The SSE 50 closed at 3035, down 0.65%; IH current - month contract closed at 3035, down 0.8% [5] - The CSI 500 closed at 8557, up 0.35%; IC current - month contract closed at 8537, up 0.1% [5] - The CSI 1000 closed at 8491, up 0.76%; IM current - month contract closed at 8443, up 0.4% [5] - The trading volume of IF was 85,824, down 19.3%; the open interest was 269,977, down 4.7% [5] - The trading volume of IH was 42,698, down 19.0%; the open interest was 105,405, down 3.3% [5] - The trading volume of IC was 114,851, down 9.6%; the open interest was 290,740, down 2.6% [5] - The trading volume of IM was 145,580, down 12.6%; the open interest was 357,540, down 4.0% [5] - The turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing stock markets was 2.5568 trillion yuan, an increase of 75.6 billion yuan from the previous day. Industry sectors showed mixed performance, with electronic components, wind power equipment, communication equipment, power supply equipment, electronic chemicals, and power grid equipment sectors leading the gains, while film and television theaters, rare earths, insurance, and real estate development sectors leading the losses [5] 3.3 Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount Situation - IF premium/discount rates for current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 5.15%, 3.13%, 3.80%, and 4.24% respectively [7] - IH premium/discount rates for current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 0.26%, - 0.32%, 0.43%, and 2.23% respectively [7] - IC premium/discount rates for current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 3.84%, 3.60%, 4.90%, and 5.42% respectively [7] - IM premium/discount rates for current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 9.23%, 7.95%, 8.76%, and 8.78% respectively [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The stock index continued its narrow - range oscillation yesterday. In the short term, after a continuous adjustment, the index rebounded and entered an oscillation phase. It is expected that the pre - holiday market will maintain a relatively strong oscillation pattern. Although the domestic policy environment provides support for the index and overseas pressure factors have marginally eased, the pre - holiday market risk appetite has decreased, sector rotation has accelerated, and the daily trading volume of A - shares has fallen to the range of 2 - 2.3 trillion yuan, which means it is more difficult for the pre - holiday index to make a strong upward attack, and it is more likely to accumulate momentum for subsequent upward movement through oscillation [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Financial Data - **Interest Rates**: The closing price of DR001 was 1.37 with a 0.49bp increase, DR007 was 1.54 with a 1.87bp decrease, GC001 was 1.52 with a 10.00bp decrease, GC007 was 1.65 with a 3.00bp decrease, SHBOR 3M was 1.58 with no change, LPR 5 - year was 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury bond was 1.31 with no change, 5 - year treasury bond was 1.47 with a 0.75bp decrease, 10 - year treasury bond was 1.79 with a 0.75bp decrease, and 10 - year US treasury bond was 4.16 with a 6.00bp decrease [5] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 785 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% and 4000 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations. With 750 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, the net daily injection was 4035 billion yuan. This week, 4055 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature, and 5000 billion yuan of 182 - day repurchase will mature on Friday [5][6] 3.2 Stock Index Futures and Stock Market - **Stock Index Futures**: The closing price of IF当月 decreased by 0.3% to 4716, IH当月 remained unchanged at 3092, IC当月 increased by 0.4% to 8342, and IM当月 increased by 0.1% to 8260. The trading volume of IF decreased by 4.4% to 62400, IH increased by 4.6% to 30833, IC increased by 7.5% to 101790, and IM increased by 0.3% to 133571. The open interest of IF decreased by 0.2% to 281980, IH increased by 0.3% to 101315, IC decreased by 0.6% to 294295, and IM increased by 0.4% to 380005 [7] - **Stock Market**: The closing price of CSI 300 decreased by 0.22% to 4713.8, SSE 50 increased by 0.03% to 3088.5, CSI 500 increased by 0.23% to 8325.8, and CSI 1000 decreased by 0.13% to 8239.5. The trading volume of the Shanghai - Shenzhen - Beijing stock markets was 20012 billion yuan, a decrease of 1237 billion yuan from the previous day. Glass fiber, energy metals, small metals, precious metals, and chemical fiber industries led the gains, while cultural media, education, tourism hotels, and aerospace industries led the losses [8] 3.3 Stock Index Futures Premium and Discount - The premium and discount rates of IF were - 2.05% for the current - month contract, - 0.21% for the next - month contract, 2.05% for the current - quarter contract, and 3.11% for the next - quarter contract; IH were - 4.13%, - 0.94%, 0.04%, and 1.89% respectively; IC were - 8.08%, - 1.25%, 3.10%, and 4.17% respectively; IM were - 10.18%, - 0.18%, 5.29%, and 6.48% respectively [9]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market still has a trading window in February, with the 10 - year Treasury bond being the preferred choice. If the interest - rate cut is realized before the "Two Sessions", there could be greater trading space. However, the trading window may only last until early March. If there is no interest - rate cut by then, the bond market may face adjustment pressure. [2][3][18] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Bond trading window still exists - In 2026, the stock market's spring rally has a combination of characteristics such as mid - stage acceleration, loose expectations, and growth - dominated. Its impact on the bond market is mainly a temporary disturbance. If the interest - rate cut occurs in spring, there may be a stage of simultaneous rise in stocks and bonds. [9] - The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond is in a downward - repair state and is approaching the resistance level of 1.8%. The mainstream market expectation is that the bond market will fluctuate, and the profit - making effect of bonds ranks relatively low among major asset classes. [9] - The yield decline of the 10 - year Treasury bond since the beginning of the year is supported by three factors: high initial yield, marginal decline in risk appetite, and restored confidence in reserve - requirement and interest - rate cuts. Only the third factor can bring substantial benefits to the bond market. If the yield breaks below 1.8% and continues to decline, it must be due to a cut in policy interest rates. [10] - For funds and short - term interest rates, low volatility has become the norm. The central bank aims for stable fund rates and will use "narrowing the interest - rate corridor" for regulation in the future. The 1 - year inter - bank certificate of deposit of state - owned and joint - stock banks is expected to fluctuate around 1.6%, with an upper and lower space of only 5BP. [12] - The co - existence of "holding stocks for the holiday" and "holding bonds for the holiday" may have two scenarios: the best scenario is that the post - holiday interest - rate cut drives a stage of simultaneous rise in stocks and bonds; the second - best scenario is that stocks and bonds become uncorrelated after the holiday, with stocks rising while the bond market remains volatile. If the stock market rises sharply or the technology sector spreads to the cyclical sector after the holiday, the bond market will face adjustment pressure. [14] 2. Potential adjustment window in March - The bond market may face an adjustment window again in March. Besides risk appetite, the supply pressure of ultra - long - term Treasury bonds also needs to be considered. If the interest - rate cut is not realized by March, and there is a one - sided adjustment in 30 - year Treasury bonds, the bond market may restart an adjustment. [3][16]