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基本面供需双弱配合不足 硅铁延续底部震荡
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-12-18 08:42
Core Insights - Silicon iron spot prices remained stable, with 72 silicon iron priced at 5100-5200 RMB/ton and 75 silicon iron priced at 5600-5700 RMB/ton [1] - On December 18, the main contract for silicon iron futures closed at 5592.00 RMB/ton, with a daily increase of 1.23% [2] - The trading volume for silicon iron futures reached 295,666 contracts on the same day [2] Price Overview - In the Ningxia region, various suppliers listed 75 silicon iron at prices ranging from 5200 to 5300 RMB/ton [2] - Specific suppliers include Ningxia Xuan Tie Supply Chain Group, Daya Smelting, and Sanyuan Zhongtai Metallurgy, all offering competitive pricing [2] Market Dynamics - As of December 17, the number of silicon iron futures warehouse receipts decreased by 96 contracts compared to the previous trading day [3] - A major factory in Gansu has begun transitioning production lines, indicating shifts in supply dynamics [3] Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply side is under pressure due to rising electricity costs leading to increased losses for companies, with some manufacturers in Qinghai initiating maintenance [4] - Demand is also facing challenges, as steel inventory is decreasing but both steel production and apparent demand are declining [4] - Overall, the market is expected to continue experiencing bottom-level fluctuations due to weak supply and demand fundamentals [4]
板块观点汇总品种中期结构短期结构原油小时周期策略:短线有宏观利好,实际影响或有限-20251029
Tian Fu Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 11:27
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term macro is favorable, but the actual impact may be limited. The market is currently driven by short - term geopolitical factors, but the medium - term logic is the downward pressure from the excess supply in the fundamental supply - demand situation. It is necessary to pay attention to the time when the short - term geopolitical sentiment cools down and the market switches back to the fundamental logic [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: After the US Treasury Department's sanctions on two Russian oil companies last week, the crude oil market rebounded. However, the actual impact of the sanctions remains to be seen, and it is expected to be limited. The medium - term logic is the downward pressure due to the excess supply in the fundamental situation. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 471 [3]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure of crude oil is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is also in a downward trend. The upper short - term pressure is at the 471 level [3]. (2) Styrene (EB) - Logic: The rebound of crude oil last week had little impact on styrene. The supply - demand logic and expectations of styrene itself dominate the market. With the continuous commissioning of new plants and slow demand growth, the inventory of styrene has been accumulating, leading to a risk of price collapse. The strategy is to hold short positions [6]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of styrene is in a downward trend. The upper short - term pressure is at the 6630 level [6]. (3) Rubber - Logic: Tire demand is stable, but the inventory pressure and high raw material prices have led to low inventory - building willingness. There is a certain bullish driving force in the short term due to continuous inventory reduction, but attention should be paid to the inventory - building pressure in the peak season in the medium term. The strategy is to stop profit on short positions [9]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure of rubber is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure has turned bullish. The short - term support is at the 15240 level [9]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The high supply pressure of butadiene rubber continues, and the inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to the continuous downward driving force brought by the loosening of the cost side. The strategy is to hold short positions, with a stop - profit reference of 11000 [13]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure and the hourly - level short - term structure of butadiene rubber are both in a downward trend. The upper short - term pressure has moved down to the 11000 level [13]. (5) PX - Logic: The high profit of PX drives high - level production, and the supply is sufficient while the demand is stable. The main logic follows the cost drive of crude oil. Affected by the notice of a polyester industry development symposium, the market traded the anti - involution sentiment in the afternoon. The strategy is to wait and see [16]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of PX is in an upward trend. The lower support is at the 6570 level [16]. (6) PTA - Logic: The supply - demand contradiction of PTA is not significant. The main logic follows the cost drive of crude oil. Affected by the notice of a polyester industry development symposium, the market traded the anti - involution sentiment in the afternoon. The strategy is to wait and see [20]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of PTA is in an upward trend. The lower short - term support is at the 4580 level [20]. (7) PP - Logic: After the commissioning of the Guangxi Petrochemical plant, the high supply pressure of PP remains. The demand recovery in the peak season is limited, and the supply - demand expectation is weak. Attention should be paid to the downward pressure on the cost side brought by the decline of crude oil. The strategy is to hold the short positions replenished yesterday, with a stop - loss reference of 6740 [25]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of PP is in a downward trend. The upper short - term pressure is at the 6740 level [25]. (8) Methanol - Logic: Due to seasonal factors, there is a certain logic for going long on the methanol 01 contract in the future, but the short - term long - entry time has not arrived. The domestic supply and demand have both weakened, and the port inventory is still at a historical high. Attention should be paid to the technical signal of whether the market can break through the short - term pressure level and the time of gas restrictions in Iran. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions in the hourly cycle cautiously, with a stop - profit at the 2300 level. For the hedging strategy, methanol can be used as a long - position allocation after breaking through the pressure level [27][29]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and short - term structures of methanol are both in a downward trend. The upper short - term pressure has moved down to the 2300 level [29]. (9) PVC - Logic: The weekly production has decreased slightly due to maintenance, but the overall supply of PVC remains high. The domestic real - estate demand has collapsed, and the social inventory has accumulated to the highest level in history. The high - production, high - inventory, and weak - demand structure makes it difficult for the price to rise. The strategy is to hold short positions [31]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures of PVC are both in a downward trend. The upper short - term pressure is at the 4800 level [31]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The supply of ethylene glycol remains high, and the inventory has started to accumulate. The previous support from low inventory has disappeared, and the supply - demand weakening expectation is being realized. The strategy is to wait and see [34]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure of ethylene glycol is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in an upward trend. The lower short - term support is at the 4065 level [34]. (11) Plastic - Logic: After the commissioning of the Guangxi Petrochemical plant, the supply pressure of plastic has increased. The demand in the peak season is weak, and the supply - demand expectation is weak. Attention should be paid to the cost - side collapse logic brought by the decline of crude oil. The strategy is to wait and see [39]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure of plastic is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in an upward trend. The lower short - term support is at the 6955 level [39]. (12) Soda Ash - Logic: The high - supply and high - inventory situation of soda ash continues to worsen. The demand from the glass industry is unlikely to improve significantly, and there is no substantial policy intervention on the supply side. The fundamental downward driving force remains unchanged. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions in the hourly cycle [43]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of soda ash is in a downward trend. The upper short - term pressure is at the 1260 level [43]. (13) Caustic Soda - Logic: The production of caustic soda remains at a high level, and the supply pressure has increased due to the commissioning of new plants. The profit of the downstream alumina industry is under pressure, and the demand growth is limited. The supply - demand driving force is still weak under the high - inventory situation. The strategy is to wait and see after taking profit before the holiday [45]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure of caustic soda is in a downward trend. The upper short - term pressure is at the 2400 level [45].
黑色建材日报-20250808
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 00:34
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Politburo meeting and the cooling of the "anti - involution" sentiment, the market sentiment becomes rational, the steel price disk trend weakens, and if the demand cannot be effectively repaired, the steel price may return to the supply - demand logic. The real - estate policy is expected to continue to strictly control the increment. It is recommended to focus on the terminal demand repair and cost support [3]. - For iron ore, the supply is in the traditional off - season of overseas mines, the pressure is not significant, the demand support exists, and the short - term trend is relatively weak. Attention should be paid to terminal demand changes and possible pre - parade production restrictions [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, it is recommended that investment positions be on the sidelines, and hedging positions can be opportunistically participated. In the future, they will face the situation of weakening marginal demand [8][9][10]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, the prices are in a volatile state, and it is necessary to be cautious when participating. Industrial silicon has problems of over - supply and insufficient effective demand, and polysilicon is affected by capacity policy expectations and corporate price - holding strategies [13][14][16]. - For glass and soda ash, they are expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the long term, glass depends on real - estate policies and demand, and soda ash has supply - demand contradictions. It is recommended to wait for high - short opportunities in the long term [18][19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Products - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,231 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (-0.09%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 93,491 tons, a net increase of 4,235 tons. The main contract position was 1.628167 million lots, a decrease of 24,402 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,440 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (-0.31%). The registered warehouse receipts were 70,915 tons, with no change. The main contract position was 1.428587 million lots, a decrease of 31,588 lots. In the spot market, rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in some regions decreased [2]. - **Market Situation**: The steel product market atmosphere warmed up, and export volume rebounded this week. Rebar showed a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, and social inventory has accumulated for two consecutive weeks with an enlarged increase this week. Hot - rolled coils showed a pattern of both supply and demand decreasing, and inventory accumulation was significant. The overall market sentiment has turned rational, and the disk trend has weakened [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract (I2509) of iron ore closed at 793.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -0.19% (-1.50), and the position changed by -22,928 lots to 335,400 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 926,800 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 773 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 28.32 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.45% [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: The latest overseas iron ore shipments decreased month - on - month, with both Australian and Brazilian shipments declining. Non - mainstream country shipments increased, and the arrival volume increased. The daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.39 million tons to 2.4032 million tons. Port inventory fluctuated slightly, and steel mill imported ore inventory increased slightly. The apparent demand of the five major steel products weakened, and inventory increased [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Market Trend**: On August 6, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) oscillated and slightly corrected, closing down 0.52% at 6,064 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed down 1.25% at 5,834 yuan/ton. The disk prices of both are above the short - term rebound trend line since early June, with loose and disordered K - line trends [8]. - **Fundamental Situation**: Manganese silicon is in an over - supplied industrial pattern, with marginal weakening of future demand and potential downward adjustment in cost. Ferrosilicon is also expected to face weakening marginal demand, especially the risk of rapid weakening of hot - rolled coil demand and the risk of a sharp decline in pig iron output [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The closing price of the main contract (SI2511) of industrial silicon was 8,655 yuan/ton, with a change of -0.52% (-45). The weighted contract position increased by 13,756 lots to 535,790 lots. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China were flat. The main contract has a certain basis. It has problems of over - supply and insufficient effective demand, and the price is weakly volatile [13][14]. - **Polysilicon**: The closing price of the main contract (PS2511) of polysilicon was 50,110 yuan/ton, with a change of -2.41% (-1,235). The weighted contract position decreased by 11,678 lots to 375,640 lots. The spot prices were flat. It is affected by capacity policy expectations and corporate price - holding strategies, and the price is in a high - level volatile state [15][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot prices in Shahe and Central China remained unchanged. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises increased by 3.95% month - on - month to 61.847 million heavy boxes, and the inventory days increased by 0.9 days to 26.4 days. The price decreased significantly with the cooling of market sentiment, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, it depends on real - estate policies and demand [18]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price was 1,255 yuan, down 65 yuan from the previous day. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers increased by 0.72% to 1.8651 million tons. The downstream demand was average, mainly for rigid procurement. The price oscillated widely with the coal - chemical sector, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term, with supply - demand contradictions in the long term [19].
《能源化工》日报-20250612
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 01:15
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyester Industry - PX: Although the short - term supply has increased and the demand has weakened, there is a de - stocking expectation in June. The price is expected to have limited downside, with support at 6400 - 6500. Short - term long positions can be considered, and short - term reverse arbitrage for PX9 - 1 is recommended [2]. - PTA: The load has increased significantly, and there is a new device put into production. The supply - demand relationship is weak, but there is support at the low level. It is recommended to operate in the 4500 - 4800 range and conduct reverse arbitrage for TA9 - 1 [2]. - MEG: The supply - demand structure in June is good, with de - stocking expectations. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4200 - 4400, and positive arbitrage for EG9 - 1 can be considered [2]. - Short - fiber: The processing fee has been repaired, but the terminal demand is weak. The price fluctuates with raw materials. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA for single - side trading and expand the processing fee at a low level [2]. - Polyester bottle - chip: There is an expectation of supply - demand improvement in June, and the processing fee will be supported. The absolute price follows the cost. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA [2]. Methanol Industry The supply is generally loose, and the demand side has mixed performance. The price is recommended to be operated in the range of 2200 - 2350 [6]. Polyolefin Industry PE is expected to de - stock in June, with limited supply pressure and driving forces. PP has a large new - capacity release in June - July, with high inventory pressure. It is recommended to short PP at high prices [9][10]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic soda: The supply has increased, but the demand from the alumina end is weakening, and there is inventory pressure. It is recommended to exit the 7 - 9 positive arbitrage and observe for single - side trading [19]. - PVC: In the short - term, it shows a volatile trend, and in the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction is prominent. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy [19]. Crude Oil Industry The overnight crude oil price continued to rise, driven by macro - geopolitical and fundamental factors. It is recommended to take a short - term long - position view, with resistance levels for WTI at [70, 71], Brent at [73, 75], and SC at [510, 520]. Pay attention to the opportunity of month - spread expansion and the option of buying a straddle structure [23]. Urea Industry The supply is high, but the demand is weak. The trading logic focuses on the agricultural demand time point and export dynamics. The market is still in the bottom - seeking stage [31]. Styrene Industry The short - term price fluctuates sharply. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the short - position opportunity caused by the resonance of raw materials in the medium - term [43]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Price and Cash - flow**: On June 11, Brent crude oil (August) was at $69.77/barrel, up 4.3% from the previous day; WTI crude oil (July) was at $68.15/barrel, up 4.9%. The prices of some polyester products remained stable, and the cash - flow of some products changed [2]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: PX supply has increased, and the demand from downstream polyester has weakened. PTA load has increased, and there is a new device put into production. MEG supply is expected to be stable, and the demand is weak in the short - term [2]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: For PX, short - term long positions and short - term reverse arbitrage for PX9 - 1; for PTA, operate in the 4500 - 4800 range and conduct reverse arbitrage for TA9 - 1; for MEG, operate in the 4200 - 4400 range and conduct positive arbitrage for EG9 - 1; for short - fiber, take the same strategy as PTA for single - side trading and expand the processing fee at a low level; for polyester bottle - chip, take the same strategy as PTA [2]. Methanol Industry - **Price and Spread**: On June 11, MA2601 closed at 2345 yuan/ton, up 0.30% from the previous day; MA2509 closed at 2282 yuan/ton, up 0.26%. The inventory of methanol enterprises and ports increased [6]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: The supply in the inland area is high, and the import expectation is still high. The demand side has mixed performance, with MTO mostly increasing the load and the downstream profit deteriorating [6]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Operate the price in the range of 2200 - 2350 [6]. Polyolefin Industry - **Price and Spread**: On June 11, L2601 closed at 7075 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous day; PP2601 closed at 6908 yuan/ton, up 0.17%. The inventory of PE and PP changed [9]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: PE has a slight increase in domestic supply and a decrease in imports, and it is in the off - season of demand. PP has a large new - capacity release in June - July, and it is also in the off - season of demand [9][10]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Short PP at high prices [10]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Price and Spread**: On June 11, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda was 2718.8 yuan/ton, down 1.1% from the previous day; the price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC was 4720 yuan/ton, up 0.4%. The export profit of caustic soda increased, and the export profit of PVC decreased [14][15][16]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: The supply of caustic soda has increased, but the demand from the alumina end is weakening. The supply of PVC is expected to increase, and the demand is weak [19]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Exit the 7 - 9 positive arbitrage for caustic soda and observe for single - side trading; maintain a short - selling strategy for PVC [19]. Crude Oil Industry - **Price and Spread**: On June 12, Brent was at $69.77/barrel, up 4.34% from the previous day; WTI was at $68.63/barrel, up 0.70%. The price of refined oil products changed slightly [23]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: The macro - geopolitical situation is tense, and the supply of Iran and Russia may be restricted. The North American drilling scale and EIA inventory have declined, and the demand is expected to be supported by the approaching peak oil - using season [23]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Take a short - term long - position view, with resistance levels for WTI at [70, 71], Brent at [73, 75], and SC at [510, 520]. Pay attention to the opportunity of month - spread expansion and the option of buying a straddle structure [23]. Urea Industry - **Price and Spread**: The price of urea in different regions changed slightly. The inventory of urea enterprises increased [30][31]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: The supply of urea is high, but the demand is weak. The agricultural demand has slightly improved, but the trading activity is not high, and the industrial demand is weakened by the decline of the compound - fertilizer start - up rate [31]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: The market is still in the bottom - seeking stage, and the trading logic focuses on the agricultural demand time point and export dynamics [31]. Styrene Industry - **Price and Spread**: On June 11, the price of styrene in East China was 7760 yuan/ton, up 0.9% from the previous day. The import profit of styrene increased [41][42]. - **Supply - demand Analysis**: The price of pure benzene is affected by factors such as the decline of naphtha and the postponement of plant maintenance. The downstream 3S profit has improved, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. However, attention should be paid to the marginal pressure on supply - demand after the restart of styrene devices [43]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the short - position opportunity caused by the resonance of raw materials in the medium - term [43].
黑色商品日报-20250513
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 05:20
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to show a repeated oscillation trend. Although the supply - demand fundamentals of rebar are weakening, the macro - sentiment is strengthening due to the positive outcome of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to oscillate. With a slight decrease in global shipments, an increase in iron - water production, and a decrease in port and steel - mill inventories, the market is in a state of mixed long and short factors [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to be oscillating and strengthening. The positive outcome of Sino - US tariff negotiations boosts market sentiment, and the high - level operation of blast - furnace iron - water production maintains the demand for these two commodities [1]. - The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are expected to be on the strong side. The better - than - expected results of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and some production - reduction news in the main production areas drive the prices of these two commodities up [1][3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price rebounded significantly, with the 2510 contract closing at 3082 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton or 1.99% from the previous trading day, and the position decreased by 164,000 lots. The spot price also rose sharply, and the national building materials trading volume was 135,400 tons. The national building materials inventory decreased by 4.08% to 4.4193 million tons, while the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 3.23% to 2.0003 million tons [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract i2509 of iron ore futures showed an oscillating and strengthening trend, closing at 718.5 yuan/ton, up 22.5 yuan/ton or 3.2% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 580,000 lots and an increase in positions of 4,000 lots. The port spot price increased [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures price rose, with the 2509 contract closing at 889.5 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton or 1.37% from the previous trading day, and the position decreased by 3,159 lots. The spot price of some coking coal decreased [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures price rose, with the 2509 contract closing at 1471.5 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton or 1.73% from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 10 lots. The port spot price increased [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price oscillated and strengthened, with the main contract closing at 5866 yuan/ton, up 1.8% month - on - month, and the position of the main contract decreased by 19,387 lots to 381,200 lots. The market price of 6517 manganese silicon increased in some regions [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price oscillated and strengthened, with the main contract closing at 5636 yuan/ton, up 1.55% month - on - month, and the position of the main contract increased by 21,649 lots. The summary price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon increased in some regions [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: Different contracts of various commodities have different spread values and their corresponding month - on - month changes, such as the 10 - 1 month spread of rebar being - 21.0, down 6.0 month - on - month [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of different contracts of various commodities also has different values and month - on - month changes, for example, the basis of the 10 - contract of rebar is 138.0, down 10.0 month - on - month [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of various commodities in different regions have different values and month - on - month changes, like the Shanghai spot price of rebar is 3220.0, up 50.0 month - on - month [4]. - **Profits and Spreads**: The profits and spreads of different commodities also have corresponding values and month - on - month changes, such as the rebar disk profit being 117.7, up 10.4 month - on - month [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][10][11][13][16]. - **Main Contract Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [18][19][22][24]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads of different inter - period contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][31][33][35][36][39]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads of different inter - variety contracts such as the main - contract hot - rolled coil to rebar spread, rebar to iron ore ratio, etc. [41][42][43]. - **Rebar Profits**: There are charts showing the profits of rebar main contracts, including disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [46][47][49][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - **Qiu Yuecheng**: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52]. - **Zhang Xiaojin**: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the field of resource products [52]. - **Liu Xi**: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [52]. - **Zhang Chunjie**: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [53].