Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic, and near - term strong and long - term weak. The US soybean futures price is driven by geopolitical conflicts and weather premiums, while the domestic soybean meal spot market is regionally differentiated with light trading. The market is waiting for the US Department of Agriculture's planting intention report, and the futures price is oscillating weakly [5]. - The palm oil market is affected by Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy. Although the futures price follows the external market to strengthen, the domestic spot market is under pressure from high inventory and inverted bean - palm spread, and there is a risk of a pull - back after the market sentiment is released [7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: Overseas, the US soybean futures price is driven by the expansion of the Middle East conflict and the pre - sowing drought in major US agricultural regions. Domestically, the spot market is regionally differentiated with light trading, and the market is waiting for the planting intention report [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy stimulates the futures market, but the domestic spot market is affected by high inventory and inverted bean - palm spread, and there is a risk of a pull - back after the market sentiment is released [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 28, the soybean and oil market continued to be volatile and strong. The price of Soybean No.1 was volatile and strong, temporarily supported by the 5 - day moving average with little change in funds; the price of Soybean No.2 rose by more than 1%, temporarily supported by the 5 - day moving average with an increase of 21,000 lots in positions; the price of soybean meal was volatile and strong, pressured by the 60 - day moving average with little change in funds; the price of rapeseed meal rose by more than 1%, pressured by the 20 - day moving average with a reduction of 30,000 lots in positions. The prices of edible oils were volatile and strong. The price of soybean oil rose by more than 1%, continuing to be strong relying on the 5 - day moving average with little change in funds; the price of palm oil rose by more than 1%, with the moving averages gradually forming a bullish arrangement and little change in funds; the price of rapeseed oil was volatile and strong, hitting the bottom and rebounding, remaining above the 60 - day moving average with little change in funds [5]. - The soybean market showed a pattern of strong overseas and stable domestic markets. The continuous high - temperature and drought in the core producing areas of Argentina led to a key weather premium, threatening soybean and corn yields and driving up the price of US soybean futures. The weakening US dollar index reduced the cost of US - dollar - denominated agricultural products. The domestic market was driven by the strong overseas market, with the futures prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal rising, but the funds were cautious, and the market mainly followed the rise passively. The last round of pre - Spring Festival terminal stocking in the domestic market supported the price and inventory, but downstream buyers mainly executed contracts, and new purchases were light. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills decreased passively. Overall, the domestic soybean meal market showed a situation of passive follow - up with limited increase under the game of overseas cost drive, pre - festival stocking support, and the expectation of loose supply [6]. - The edible oil market continued to be strong. The upcoming release of the US RVO policy supported the price of US soybean oil futures. Palm oil was in a period of multiple positive resonances, including improved supply - demand in the producing areas, favorable demand substitution, policy expectation support, and strong domestic sentiment, and its price continued to be strong. Although the price of rapeseed oil followed the rise, its rebound space was restricted by the uncertainty of China - Canada relations. The domestic edible oil sector entered a policy - sensitive period, and the de - stocking trend of the three major edible oils provided coordinated support for the strong operation of the entire edible oil sector. The decline in domestic soybean oil inventory, combined with the peak - season demand effect and technical buying, was expected to deepen the rebound; the improvement of the fundamental situation of palm oil in the producing areas and the recovery of domestic buying sentiment would further consolidate the strong foundation of palm oil. In the short term, driven by both fundamentals and sentiment, the strong pattern of palm oil prices continued, and it remained the core variety in the edible oil sector [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Although China resumed purchasing US soybeans since the end of October last year, after achieving the goal of purchasing 12 million tons of US soybeans, it is estimated that China will increase imports of Brazilian soybeans in the first half of this year. Brazilian soybean production is expected to reach a record high of about 180 million tons, and its price is more competitive. So far this year, the price of Brazilian soybeans has fallen by nearly 9%, while the price of Chicago soybean futures has risen by more than 1% due to Chinese demand. Chinese private oil mills are finalizing purchase contracts for Brazilian soybeans for shipments starting from February. Since the end of October, China has purchased 12 million tons of US soybeans, all by state - owned enterprises. Private buyers have little interest in purchasing US soybeans because of higher tariffs (13% for US soybeans compared to 3% for Brazilian and Argentine soybeans), which makes the cost of purchasing US soybeans significantly higher. According to the Sino - US trade agreement, in addition to purchasing 12 million tons of US soybeans in 2025, China will purchase 25 million tons per year from 2026 to 2028 [10]. - Argentina has been experiencing continuous high - temperature and drought, which has put pressure on livestock, soybeans, especially corn crops, and may lead to a decline in the 2025/26 production. The temperature in Argentina has soared to nearly 40 degrees Celsius, and the main agricultural areas are in urgent need of rainfall, which is expected to arrive in February. The heatwave is expected to reduce corn production, especially for early - sown corn. The core agricultural belt needs 70 - 80 mm of rainfall. The sowing of crops is basically completed, with the corn sowing progress at 93.1% and the soybean sowing progress at 96.2% [11]. - Data from the Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat shows that the export pace of Brazilian soybeans in January 2026 has been significantly higher than the same period last year. From January 1 to 23, the export volume of Brazilian soybeans was 1.522 million tons, compared with 1.069 million tons in January 2025. The average daily export volume so far in January is 95,105 tons, a year - on - year increase of 95.7% (144.6% a week ago). The export revenue of soybeans so far in January is 670 million US dollars, compared with 430 million US dollars for the whole of January 2025. The average export price of soybeans so far in January is 438.0 US dollars per ton, a year - on - year increase of 8.0% [11]. - According to the crop progress report released by the Brazilian National Commodity Supply Company (CONAB) on January 24, 2026, the harvest progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 6.6%, higher than 2.3% a week ago, 3.2% in the same period last year, and the five - year average of 7.0%. The harvest progress in Mato Grosso is 19.7%, compared with 6.4% a week ago, 3.6% in the same period last year, and the five - year average of 18%. The harvest progress in Paraná is 3%, compared with 2% a week ago, 10% in the same period last year, and the five - year average of 6.8% [12][13]. 3.2 Spot Market Prices | Variety | Grade/Indicator | Price (Yuan/ton) | Change from the Previous Day (Yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean (Dalian) | Imported Second - Class | 3950 | 0 | | Soybean (Average) | —— | 4072 | 0 | | Soybean Meal (Zhangjiagang) | ≥43% | 3120 | 0 | | Soybean Meal (Average) | —— | 3196 | +2 | | Soybean Oil (Zhangjiagang) | Fourth - Grade | 8820 | +110 | | Soybean Oil (Average) | —— | 8781 | +107 | | Palm Oil (Guangdong) | 24 - degree | 9270 | +100 | | Palm Oil (Average) | —— | 9300 | +100 | | Rapeseed Oil (Zhangjiagang) | Imported Fourth - Grade | 10120 | +40 | | Rapeseed Oil (Average) | —— | 10226 | +40 | [14] 3.3 Oil Mill Pressing Profits | Location | Soybean | Soybean Meal | Soybean Oil | Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Heilongjiang (Domestic) | 4100 | 3340 | 8790 | 40.90 | | Dalian (Domestic) | 4160 | 3220 | 8600 | - 149.90 | | Dalian (Imported) | 3920 | 3220 | 8600 | 81.70 | | Tianjin (Domestic) | 4260 | 3180 | 8280 | - 285.70 | | Tianjin (Imported) | 3940 | 3180 | 8580 | 56.50 | | Shandong (Domestic) | 4400 | 3150 | 8630 | - 440.85 | | Qingdao (Imported) | 3920 | 3150 | 8630 | 62.45 | | Zhangjiagang (Imported) | 3920 | 3120 | 8820 | 62.45 | | Dongguan (Imported) | 3950 | 3120 | 8800 | 32.45 | | Rizhao (Imported) | 3920 | 3120 | 8630 | 62.45 | | Yantai (Imported) | 3920 | 3160 | 8630 | 62.45 | | Zhanjiang (Imported) | 3950 | 3150 | 8800 | 32.45 | | Fangcheng (Imported) | 3950 | 3140 | 8750 | 32.45 | | Qinzhou (Imported) | 3920 | 3140 | 8750 | 32.45 | | Lianyungang (Imported) | 3920 | 3150 | 8820 | 62.45 | | Nanjing (Imported) | 3920 | 3110 | 8840 | 62.45 | [15] 3.4 Related Charts - The report includes charts such as soybean port inventory, soybean盘面压榨利润, soybean oil port inventory, palm oil port inventory, soybean oil basis, and palm oil basis, with data sources from iFinD and the Baocheng Futures Research Institute [16][18][20][22][24][26].

Report Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Palm oil (long - term) [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Iron ore (short - term), Crude oil, Fuel oil, Asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Logs, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Bitumen, Shanghai stocks, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short fiber, Styrene, Cotton (domestic, long - term), Corn (near - term), Soybean (far - month C01) [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, Treasury bond, Gold, Silver, Nickel, Stainless steel, Steel, Coke, Coking coal, Coke breeze, Rapeseed oil, Cotton (domestic, short - term), Sugar, Pulp, Live pigs, PE, PVC, Caustic soda, LPG, Container shipping secondary line [1] Core Views The report provides trend judgments and logical analyses for various commodities in different sectors. Market conditions are influenced by multiple factors such as macroeconomic data (e.g., US non - farm payrolls), geopolitical situations (e.g., Middle East tensions), supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. Different commodities show different trends, including upward, downward, and oscillating movements, and investors are advised to pay attention to relevant factors for each commodity [1]. Summary by Industry Macroeconomic and Financial - **Stock Index**: In the short term, market trading volume gradually shrinks slightly, and with mediocre domestic and international positive factors, there is resistance to upward breakthrough, and it may show an oscillating pattern. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - incremental information for direction guidance [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1] - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Market uncertainties remain. Gold and silver prices are expected to oscillate mainly. Attention should be paid to tariff developments [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Base Metals**: Due to factors such as the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, high prices suppressing downstream demand, and inventory changes, copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, etc., have downward risks. Nickel prices oscillate, and attention should be paid to supply and macro - changes [1] - **Stainless Steel**: After an oscillating rebound, the sustainability needs to be observed. Attention should be paid to raw material changes and actual steel - mill production [1] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has a downward risk, and polysilicon is affected by supply - side reform expectations and market sentiment [1] - **Lithium Hydroxide**: Supply has not been reduced, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital gaming. The price oscillates [1] Ferrous Metals - **Steel and Related Products**: Macro uncertainties remain. With raw material price weakening, social inventory slightly declining, and steel - mill production reduction news boosting confidence, the market situation is complex. The sustainability of stainless - steel rebound needs to be observed [1] Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes oils to follow the decline of crude oil. In the long term, international oil demand increases, and the far - month contracts of palm oil are bullish [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums. In the long term, macro uncertainties are strong. Domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Sugar**: Brazil's sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect Brazil's sugar - making ratio and production [1] - **Corn and Soybeans**: Corn is affected by policy - based grain releases and price differences. Soybeans have different trends for near - and far - month contracts, depending on factors such as supply - demand and trade policies [1] - **Pulp and Logs**: Pulp has low valuation and macro - positive factors. Logs are in the off - season, and supply decline is limited [1] - **Live Pigs**: With the continuous repair of pig inventory, the market shows a certain stability [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: Due to the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation and OPEC +'s unexpected production increase, crude oil, fuel oil, etc., have downward risks [1] - **Petrochemical Products**: PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and production - reduction expectations [1] - **Synthetic Rubber**: BR rubber is under pressure due to factors such as OPEC's production increase and high basis [1] - **Plastics and Chemicals**: PE, PVC, caustic soda, etc., show different trends due to factors such as maintenance, demand, and market sentiment [1] - **LPG**: Affected by factors such as price cuts, production increases, and seasonal demand, it has downward space [1] Other - **Container Shipping**: It is expected that the freight rate will reach its peak in mid - July and show an arc - top trend from July to August. The subsequent shipping capacity is relatively sufficient [1]

Group 1 - The domestic oilseed market is mostly in the red, with soybean meal futures showing a downward trend, closing at 2986.00 CNY/ton, down 2.56% from the previous session [1] - External factors such as falling crude oil prices and ample global wheat supply are contributing to the weak market environment, while the upcoming U.S. grain inventory and planting report is highly anticipated [1] - Weather conditions in the U.S. soybean growing regions are favorable, which may lead to an increase in the quality rating of U.S. soybeans next week [1] Group 2 - Domestic soybean imports surged to nearly 14 million tons in May, with expectations of over 10 million tons arriving in June and July [2] - The U.S. soybean planting progress is ahead of schedule, and while the quality rating has slightly decreased to 66%, it remains relatively high, with no immediate weather-related trading opportunities [2] - The market is currently experiencing mixed signals, making it difficult to establish a clear trend for soybean meal prices, with a focus on the upcoming planting area data [2]

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Aluminum, Palm oil, Soybean oil, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short - fiber, PE, PVC, LPG [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Nickel, Stainless steel, Industrial silicon, Polysilicon, Carbonate lithium, Rebar, Iron ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda ash, Coking coal, Coke, Cotton, Pulp, Logs, Asphalt, Styrene, Alumina [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, Treasury bond, Gold, Silver, Zinc, Lead, Natural gas, Crude oil, Bitumen, Shanghai rubber, Freight index [1] 2) Core Viewpoints - The domestic economic fundamentals have weak support, with low short - term domestic policy expectations and increasing overseas disturbances. The asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing upward movement [1]. - Geopolitical situations such as the Middle East situation and the Israel - Iran conflict have significant impacts on the prices of commodities like gold, crude oil, and chemical products [1]. - Supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and inventory levels are key factors affecting commodity prices. For example, supply - side production increases or decreases, changes in downstream demand, and inventory accumulation or depletion all play important roles [1]. 3) Summary by Commodity Categories Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Weak and oscillating, use options to hedge uncertainties [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Oscillating, with asset shortage and weak economy being favorable, but central - bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppressing upward movement [1] - **Gold**: Oscillating in the short - term, with a solid upward trend in the long - term, but beware of short - term risks of a sharp rise followed by a fall [1] - **Silver**: Oscillating [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: At risk of price correction after rising, as market risk preference is volatile and downstream demand is in the off - season [1] - **Aluminum**: Strong, with low inventory and risk of a short squeeze [1] - **Alumina**: Oscillating, with falling spot prices, weaker futures prices, and increased production from smelting putting pressure on the futures [1] - **Nickel**: Weak and oscillating in the short - term, with long - term oversupply pressure, suggest short - term range trading and selling - hedging on rebounds [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Oscillating at the bottom in the short - term, with long - term supply pressure, suggest short - term trading and industry players should pay attention to policy changes and steel - mill production schedules [1] - **Tin**: Oscillating at a high level in the short - term, as supply contradictions intensify due to restrictions on tin - ore transportation [1] Black Metals - **Rebar**: No upward price drivers during the transition from peak to off - season, with loose supply - demand and cost support [1] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating, with a possible increase in supply in June, loose supply - demand, and insufficient cost support [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: Oversupply pressure persists, with downward production due to profit pressure and weakening demand [1] - **Glass**: Weakening, as demand weakens during the off - season [1] - **Soda Ash**: Under pressure, with concerns about oversupply due to increased production and weak terminal demand [1] - **Coking Coal**: Bearish, with the upper limit of the price anchored at the warehouse - receipt cost of 780 - 800, still suitable for short - selling [1] - **Coke**: Bearish, with falling prices following the decline in coking - coal costs [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Bullish in the short - term, as the US biodiesel RVO quota proposal may tighten global oil supply - demand, but beware of crude - oil fluctuations [1] - **Soybean Oil**: Bullish, with similar logic to palm oil [1] - **Cotton**: Oscillating and weakening, affected by trade negotiations, weather premiums, and the off - season of the domestic cotton - spinning industry [1] - **Corn**: Oscillating in the short - term, with a bullish long - term trend due to expected tight supply - demand, suggest buying on dips [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Suggest waiting and seeing, and pay attention to the adjustment of US soybean and corn planting areas in the end - of - month report [1] - **Pulp**: Demand is weak, but the downside is limited, suggest waiting and seeing, and a 7 - 9 reverse spread is recommended [1] - **Logs**: With high positions near the delivery of the main contract and intense capital games, suggest waiting and seeing [1] - **Live Pigs**: Futures are stable, with sufficient supply expectations, but short - term spot prices are less affected by slaughter, and there may be support during the summer consumption peak [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Oscillating, affected by the Middle East situation and the summer consumption peak [1] - **Asphalt**: Oscillating, with cost drag, inventory normalization, and slow demand recovery [1] - **Shanghai Rubber**: Oscillating, with the narrowing of the futures - spot price difference, falling raw - material prices, and significant inventory decline [1] - **BR Rubber**: Strong and oscillating in the short - term, supported by cost increases [1] - **PTA**: Bullish, with a strong spot basis due to the Israel - Iran conflict and potential impacts on production [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Bullish, continuing to reduce inventory, with reduced arrivals and improved polyester sales [1] - **Short - fiber**: Bullish, with costs closely following raw - material prices and planned plant maintenance [1] - **Styrene**: Bearish, with weakening prices due to reduced speculative demand and increased plant loads [1] - **PE**: Oscillating and strengthening, with price support from geopolitical factors and crude - oil price increases [1] - **PP**: Oscillating [1] - **PVC**: Oscillating and strengthening, with supply pressure and price support from crude - oil price increases [1] - **Aluminum Oxide Smelting**: Oscillating, with the market anticipating price cuts, and future trends depend on the alumina market [1] - **LPG**: Oscillating and strengthening, affected by geopolitical factors, suggest waiting and seeing [1] Others - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Strong expectations but weak reality, suggest short - selling with caution during price - support periods, and light - position long - buying for peak - season contracts, also consider 6 - 8 reverse spreads and 8 - 10, 12 - 4 positive spreads [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no explicit overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, investment suggestions are given for different sectors, including "long - position reduction", "short - selling opportunities", "interval trading", etc. [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market shows complex trends due to various factors such as economic data, policy changes, and supply - demand relationships across different commodity sectors. The overall market sentiment is affected by factors like the US consumer confidence index, inflation expectations, and geopolitical events. [1] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - For stock index futures, it is recommended to consider reducing long positions and be vigilant about further adjustment risks [1]. - The bond futures are supported by asset shortage and weak economy in the long - term, but the short - term rise is suppressed by the central bank's interest - rate risk reminder [1]. - Gold prices may enter a consolidation phase in the short - term, while the long - term upward logic remains unchanged. Silver prices may be more resilient than gold in the short - term due to potential tariff impacts [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper prices are expected to be weak in the short - term due to lower downstream demand and other factors [1]. - Aluminum prices will remain strong in the short - term supported by low inventory and alumina price rebounds. Alumina prices continue to rise due to supply disruptions [1]. - Zinc fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities [1]. - Nickel prices will oscillate in the short - term and face long - term oversupply pressure. Short - term interval trading is suggested [1]. - Stainless steel futures will oscillate in the short - term with long - term supply pressure. Interval trading is recommended [1]. - Tin prices have strong fundamental support before the复产 of Wa State [1]. Chemicals - Silicon presents a situation of strong supply, weak demand, and low - valuation, with no improvement in demand and high inventory pressure [1]. - Lithium carbonate has no further supply contraction, increasing inventory, and downstream rigid - demand purchasing [1]. - For methanol, the short - term spot market will trade in a range, and the long - term market may turn from strong to weak and oscillate [1]. - PVC has weak fundamentals but is boosted by macro - factors, and its price will oscillate [1]. - LPG prices are expected to decline in the short - term due to tariff easing and demand off - season [1]. Black Metals - Rebar is in a window of switching from peak to off - season, with cost loosening and a supply - demand surplus, lacking upward momentum [1]. - Iron ore prices will oscillate, and manganese ore prices are expected to decline due to oversupply [1]. - Coke and coking coal are in a relatively oversupplied situation, and it is recommended to take advantage of price rebounds for hedging [1]. Agricultural Products - Brazilian sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record high, but it may be affected by crude oil prices [1]. - Grains are expected to oscillate, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended considering the tight annual supply - demand situation [1]. - Soybean prices are expected to oscillate due to lack of speculation and market pressure [1]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly as the domestic cotton - spinning industry enters the off - season [1]. - Pulp prices will oscillate due to lack of upward momentum after the tariff - related boost [1]. - Livestock prices will oscillate as the pig inventory recovers and the market is in a state of abundant supply expectation [1]. Energy - Crude oil and fuel oil prices are affected by the progress of the Iran nuclear deal and the end of the Sino - US trade negotiation drive [1]. - Asphalt prices will oscillate as cost drags, inventory returns to normal, and demand slowly recovers [1]. - Natural rubber prices are affected by rainfall, cost support, and the end of the trade negotiation drive [1].