[Table_Page] 跟踪研究|运输 证券研究报告 | [Table_Title] 【广发交运&海外】美兰空港 | | --- | | (00357.HK) | 1 月季节性修复，看好自贸港机场长期潜力 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 风险提示。自然灾害，经济下行，自贸港政策不及预期等。 盈利预测： | [Table_ 单位:Finance] 人民币百万元 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主营收入 | 2,086 | 2,171 | 2,165 | 2,510 | 2,810 | | 增长率（ % ） | 82.7% | 4.1% | -0.3% | 15.9% | 12.0% | | EBITDA | -128 | 7 | 368 | 671 | 984 | | 归母净利润 | -136 | -381 | -50 | 282 | 538 | | 增长率（ % ） | -12.4% | 180.5% | -86.8% | -659.7% | 90.8% | | ...

Core Viewpoint - Wenchang City aims to strengthen its position as a hub for commercial aerospace by accelerating the construction of its second-phase launch site and enhancing high-quality development engines [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Development Goals - The main expected economic and social development goals for Wenchang City by 2026 include a GDP growth of approximately 6%, fixed asset investment growth of around 10%, and a retail sales growth of about 1% [2]. - The local general public budget revenue is projected to grow by 6.5%, while the consumer price index is targeted to remain within a 2% increase [2]. - Resident income is expected to grow in line with economic growth, and ecological quality is to be maintained at a high standard, with carbon emission controls meeting provincial targets [2]. Group 2: Aerospace Industry Focus - Wenchang City will focus on becoming a strong aerospace city by advancing the second phase of the launch site, developing offshore recovery platforms, and supporting heavy rocket infrastructure projects [2]. - The city plans to extend its industrial chain by solidifying its satellite and rocket manufacturing base while promoting the satellite data application industry [2]. - Initiatives include the establishment of a national-level data processing trade zone and international trading center, as well as integrating aerospace with tourism, education, and agriculture to create a "Aerospace Tourism Capital" [2]. Group 3: Trade and Industry Modernization - The city aims to enhance its openness by implementing zero-tariff policies and expanding foreign investment and new trade formats [3]. - Efforts will be made to strengthen port functions and enhance route networks to integrate deeply with the Belt and Road Initiative and regional economic cycles [3]. - A modern industrial system will be constructed, focusing on upgrading traditional industries like coconut, Wenchang chicken, and fisheries to standardized, branded, and full-chain operations [3]. - Emerging industries such as low-altitude and digital economies will be prioritized, with the establishment of industrial parks and take-off points [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significance of the Hainan Free Trade Port's development as it enters a new phase with the full implementation of customs closure, highlighting the achievements and future tasks outlined in the government work report [2][3][10]. Group 1: Historical Achievements - The report identifies "historical new progress" and "historical new changes" as key descriptors of Hainan's development over the past five years, showcasing significant advancements in various sectors [4][5]. - Hainan's GDP has crossed three trillion yuan milestones, with the four leading industries' contribution to GDP increasing by approximately 14 percentage points compared to 2020 [4]. - The report highlights impressive growth rates in several areas, including a 38.9% increase in import value and a 46.8% rise in duty-free sales, indicating a robust economic momentum [5]. Group 2: Challenges and Confidence - Despite achievements, Hainan faces challenges such as a weak manufacturing base and uneven regional development, necessitating a shift from policy pilot to comprehensive institutional arrangements [6][7]. - Confidence in overcoming these challenges stems from strong support from the central government, a favorable economic environment, and a solid foundation laid by the Free Trade Port policies [8][9]. Group 3: Future Tasks and Strategies - The government work report outlines ten key tasks for the year, focusing on higher levels of openness, modern industrial system construction, and improving the quality of life for residents [10][11]. - The term "accelerate" appears over 50 times in the report, reflecting a strong commitment to expedite various initiatives, including the development of offshore trade and the cultivation of skilled talent [12].

Economic Performance and Goals - Hainan's GDP is projected to grow by 4% in 2025, with industrial added value increasing by 9.9% and service import-export volume rising by 22.1% [1] - The expected GDP growth for 2026 is around 6% [1] Policy and Reform Initiatives - Hainan will focus on enhancing higher-level openness, including accelerating the release of free trade port policy dividends and implementing zero-tariff policies for certain goods [1][2] - The province aims to optimize the layout of state-owned enterprises and promote a new round of restructuring among provincial state-owned enterprises [4] Investment and Consumption Strategies - Hainan plans to boost consumption and effective investment by enhancing the business environment and promoting sectors like health, green initiatives, and cultural tourism [4] - The government will encourage private enterprises to participate in key project construction and will implement a three-year action plan to attract 10,000 private enterprises to Hainan [4] Trade and Service Sector Developments - The province will work on expanding institutional openness, reducing the negative list for cross-border service trade, and enhancing market access in key areas such as tourism and finance [2] - In the first month of the free trade port's operation, over 10,000 entities benefited from the zero-tariff policy, with significant increases in import value and international travel [2]

Core Insights - The upcoming Spring Festival travel season in Hainan will be the first since the implementation of the free trade port, with a significant increase in passenger flow expected due to the effects of the closure policy [1] Group 1: Passenger Flow Expectations - The total passenger volume during the Spring Festival is projected to reach 22.368 million, representing a year-on-year increase of over 5.3% [1] - The demand for ferry transport across the Qiongzhou Strait is particularly strong, with an expected 4.66 million passengers and over 1.17 million vehicles, marking increases of 12% and 10% respectively [1] - Civil aviation passenger throughput is anticipated to hit 8.175 million, a 3.7% increase, setting a new record for the Spring Festival [1] Group 2: Transportation Challenges - The travel peak will be prolonged due to the "late Spring Festival," with pre-holiday peaks occurring from February 13 to February 16 and post-holiday peaks from February 21 to March 4 [2] - Increased pressure on transportation infrastructure is expected, particularly in the Qiongzhou Strait, airports, and highways, due to overlapping flows of students, workers, and tourists [2] - Adverse weather conditions, such as fog and strong winds, may impact transportation efficiency during the holiday period [2] Group 3: Transportation Capacity Enhancements - To meet the increased demand, Hainan will enhance transportation capacity by deploying 57 ferries and 4 specialized ferries for new energy vehicles, with a planned increase of 10% in sailing frequency compared to 2025 [2] - Daily ferry services will include 30 to 32 train ferry trips to accommodate vehicle transport needs [2] - New energy vehicle transport capacity is set to rise from an average of 3,500 to 5,000 vehicles per day, supported by the addition of two new specialized vessels [3] Group 4: Service Optimization - Hainan will extend the ticket pre-sale period for ferries to 15 days for inbound and 30 days for outbound travel, and will support round-trip ticket purchases [3] - The airline will increase flights to major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, with a maximum daily flight capacity of 1,370 [3] - Efforts will be made to improve the travel experience through enhanced ticketing services and a 24-hour transportation hotline for passenger inquiries [3]

Group 1 - The Hainan Free Trade Port enterprise experience sharing conference was held to showcase the effectiveness of policy implementation and to foster consensus for high-quality development post-closure [1][6] - The conference featured nearly 300 representatives from domestic and international enterprises, industry experts, and government officials, focusing on the theme of "Policy Implementation Strengthens Confidence, Government and Enterprises Work Together to Promote Development" [1][6] - The event aimed to bridge communication between government and enterprises, addressing the "last mile" issue of policy implementation and converting policy benefits into tangible results for business development [1][2] Group 2 - Key enterprises shared their experiences, including Hainan Auscar International Grain and Oil Co., which benefited from the "30% value-added processing duty exemption" policy, leading to a 12% reduction in internal sales costs and a 35% increase in new orders [2][3] - Datang Hainan Energy highlighted the "double 15%" tax incentive, saving over 23 million yuan in tax burdens in the second half of 2025, which was reinvested into offshore wind power projects [3] - Hainan Airport Industry Group utilized the "zero tariff" policy to enhance its logistics infrastructure, achieving a 48% increase in cargo throughput by 2025 [3][4] Group 3 - The cross-border e-commerce sector saw significant growth, with a 62% increase in transaction volume, reaching 800 million yuan, and local product exports rising from 15% to 30% [4][5] - The conference included a policy interpretation area and a government-enterprise negotiation zone, addressing over 200 inquiries from businesses and establishing 17 preliminary cooperation intentions [4][6] - The first month of operation post-closure saw "zero tariff" imports valued at 750 million yuan, a 48% year-on-year increase, and over 5,132 new foreign trade enterprises registered [5][6]

Core Insights - The first month of operation under the Hainan Free Trade Port has shown strong performance in key metrics, indicating effective market activation and accelerated development momentum [2] Group 1: Trade and Economic Data - In the first month, Haikou imported "zero tariff" goods worth 29.94 million yuan, accounting for 3.97% of the province's total, primarily consisting of medical devices and production equipment [2] - The value of domestic sales of processed goods exempt from tariffs reached 41.42 million yuan, representing 48.2% of the province's total, with a tariff exemption of 1.32 million yuan, mainly in chemical products and food [2] - The total value of goods subject to relaxed trade management measures was 34.7 thousand yuan, accounting for 100% of the province's total, primarily including endoscopic equipment [2] - The first month saw the addition of 15,800 new business entities in Haikou, a year-on-year increase of 12.62%, representing 57.92% of the province's total [2] Group 2: Tourism and Passenger Traffic - Duty-free sales in the offshore market reached 2.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.4%, setting a new record for the same period [3] - Meilan Airport operated 39 international routes, with a total of 1,226 flights in the first month, a year-on-year increase of 28.5%, transporting 189,000 international and regional passengers, a 50% increase [3] - The international cargo transport on 5 operational routes amounted to 955 tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9% [3] - The number of foreign visitors entering without a visa reached 7,681, a year-on-year increase of 31.3% [3] Group 3: Customs and Port Efficiency - Haikou was the first city in the province to complete the passage of "zero tariff," processed goods exempt from tariffs, and goods under relaxed trade management measures through regulatory channels [3] - In the first month, Haikou's four "second-line ports" processed 219 shipments of processed goods exempt from tariffs, covering 20 beneficiary enterprises in key sectors such as medical devices and food processing [3] - The average time for container trucks to pass through Haikou port has been reduced to 18 seconds, achieving "second-level customs clearance," significantly saving time and costs for businesses and logistics [4] - Approximately 80,399 domestic freight vehicles passed through the centralized inspection area in the first month, averaging about 2,590 vehicles per day, validating the port's capacity [4]

Core Insights - The establishment of a dedicated service agency at the port has received positive feedback from businesses, highlighting the effectiveness of "one-on-one" services and stringent risk prevention measures [1][4] Group 1: Customs Efficiency - The first successful customs clearance of a batch of 10 tons of macadamia nuts at the "second line port" of Baosuo marked a significant milestone for Hainan Free Trade Port, with a cost saving of approximately 3 yuan per kilogram [2][3] - The customs process was completed in just a few minutes due to extensive preparations, including multiple "virtual customs" tests conducted over six months [3][4] - The efficient customs process is crucial for processing trade enterprises, enabling a business model of "global sourcing, Hainan processing, and global sales" [3][7] Group 2: Service and Support - A dedicated port service agency was established to provide comprehensive "one-on-one" support for businesses, allowing them to focus on market and production while the agency handles complex customs processes [4][6] - The service model includes continuous professional support, with staff available outside of regular hours to assist businesses with policy understanding and operational challenges [4][6] Group 3: Risk Management - A robust risk prevention system has been implemented at the Baosuo port, featuring automated vehicle inspections and a 24-hour monitoring team to ensure security without disrupting operations [6][7] - The risk management framework has become a standard practice since the port's opening, contributing to a secure and efficient operational environment [6][7] Group 4: Investment Confidence - The enhanced customs efficiency has boosted business confidence, leading to successful product placements in major retail channels and plans for further investment in Hainan [7] - The port's operational efficiency and favorable policies are attracting industrial clusters, with ongoing projects like the Xiangqiong Industrial Park and Dongfang Taiwanese Business Park being developed to leverage these advantages [7]

Core Viewpoint - The overall operation of Hainan Free Trade Port's closure is stable and orderly, with a positive start, as evidenced by the significant increase in new business entities and the smooth flow of goods and people since the closure began on December 18, 2025 [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Performance - As of December 28, 2025, Hainan has seen the establishment of 11,957 new business entities since the closure, indicating a robust economic environment [2]. - The province's GDP is expected to exceed 800 billion yuan for the year, marking a significant growth trajectory [4]. - The advanced manufacturing sector is driving double-digit growth in industrial output, while retail sales are increasing at a rate that ranks among the top in the nation [4]. Group 2: Trade and Transportation - Since the closure, 112,100 passengers have entered and exited through Hainan's ports, with 32,700 of them being visa-free arrivals [2]. - A total of 753 aircraft and 180 vessels have moved in and out of the province, with significant traffic through secondary ports, including 3,848 vessels and 160,900 vehicles [2][3]. - The opening of new international routes, including 89 overseas passenger routes, has enhanced Hainan's status as an international aviation hub [3]. Group 3: Policy and Structural Changes - The implementation of policies such as zero tariffs on eligible imports and the use of local products in processing has improved customs efficiency [3]. - The province's economic structure is evolving, with four main industries accounting for nearly 70% of the economic output, and foreign investment increasing by 51.5% from January to November [4]. - Hainan is focusing on building a modern industrial system with unique characteristics, enhancing technological and talent support, and promoting coordinated regional development [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to enhance its construction and operational efficiency in 2026, focusing on policy implementation and attracting global resources to achieve tangible results from its established systems [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Development Strategies - The Hainan government aims to achieve a "good start" in the first year of the Free Trade Port's operation by ensuring smooth and efficient operations while accelerating the implementation of precise policies [1]. - A modern industrial system will be constructed to enhance industrial synergy, focusing on zero tariffs to expand the industrial chain and promote high-value manufacturing [2]. - Effective demand will be expanded to stimulate domestic consumption and investment, leveraging the large market size and integrating various policies [2]. Group 2: Open Economy and Reforms - High-level openness will be promoted to align with Southeast Asia's industrial upgrade needs, implementing measures to empower global supply chain construction [2]. - Key reforms in state-owned enterprises and resource allocation will be pursued to create a first-class business environment, emphasizing integrity and smart governance [2][3]. - Urban-rural integration and regional collaboration will be advanced to promote new urbanization and rural revitalization [2]. Group 3: Environmental and Social Initiatives - Ecological civilization construction will be prioritized to protect the environment, with measures for ecological supervision and landmark projects [2]. - Social welfare initiatives will be implemented to enhance public services in education, healthcare, and social support systems [2][3]. Group 4: Initial Outcomes and International Cooperation - Since the full island closure on December 18, 2025, the Free Trade Port has seen a stable operation with significant initial outcomes, including over 11.21 million inbound and outbound travelers [4]. - Hainan is learning from established free trade ports like Hong Kong and Singapore, fostering mutually beneficial relationships and cooperation agreements [5]. Group 5: Business Environment Improvements - Historical issues in the business environment are being addressed, with a high resolution rate of over 75% for identified problems since 2025 [6]. - Measures to prevent new issues and enhance service mechanisms for enterprises are being implemented [6]. Group 6: Duty-Free Shopping Policies - The range of zero-tariff goods has expanded significantly, covering over 6,600 tax items, and personal consumers can purchase duty-free items through various policies [7]. - Three forms of duty-free shopping are available for personal consumers, including offshore duty-free shopping and policies for residents [7]. Group 7: Financial Support for Development - Financial support for the Free Trade Port is robust, with an expected loan growth rate of around 11.5% and a focus on cross-border financial policies [8]. - The financial system aims to enhance support for leading industries and promote the internationalization of the Renminbi while managing financial risks [8].