Core Insights - The core consumer price index (CPI) in China showed a mild increase, with a month-on-month rise of 0.2% and a year-on-year rise of 0.2% in January, while the core CPI excluding food and energy rose by 0.8% year-on-year, indicating a steady recovery in consumer demand [1][2][3] Industry Analysis - The increase in core CPI is attributed to high service consumption demand and rising prices of durable goods, supported by international gold price increases and consumption policies [1][2] - Specific price changes include a 5.7% increase in airplane tickets, a 2.0% rise in travel agency fees, and price increases in household goods and personal care items ranging from 0.7% to 1.4% [1][2] - The industrial consumer goods price, excluding energy, rose by 2.6% year-on-year, with notable increases in gold jewelry prices by 77.4% and household goods by 2.1% to 6.6% [2] Consumer Goods Stability - Essential consumer goods such as vegetables, meat, and fruits maintained stable prices, with fresh vegetable prices decreasing by 4.8% and pork prices increasing by 1.2% [2][3] - The stability in prices of essential goods is seen as a successful regulatory measure to ensure basic living needs are met [2] Future Outlook - Predictions indicate that the CPI growth rate will significantly increase to around 1.0% in February due to the reversal of the Spring Festival timing effect, with a combined CPI growth rate of approximately 0.6% for January and February [3] - For 2026, the CPI growth rate is expected to fluctuate between 0.5% and 1.2%, with a potential year-end rate around 0.8% [3][4] - The data from January is viewed as a positive signal for high-quality economic development in 2026, emphasizing the need for policies to support income growth, youth employment, and infrastructure investment [4]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In January, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, indicating a moderate recovery in consumer demand [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3% month-on-month, marking the highest increase in six months [3] - Food prices decreased by 0.7%, contributing to a decline in the CPI year-on-year by approximately 0.11 percentage points, while service prices increased by 0.1% [2][3] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.4% month-on-month, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase, with a year-on-year decline of 1.4% [4] - Key industries showed price increases due to improved supply-demand structures and the effects of capacity governance [4][5] - Domestic prices in the non-ferrous metal and petroleum sectors exhibited divergence due to international price fluctuations, with non-ferrous metal mining prices increasing significantly [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a recovery in consumer demand in January, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 0.2% month-on-month and the Producer Price Index (PPI) increasing by 0.4% month-on-month, while the PPI decreased by 1.4% year-on-year [1] - The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 0.3% month-on-month, marking the highest increase in six months, driven by significant price increases in airline tickets (5.7%) and travel agency fees (2.0%) [1] - The year-on-year increase in industrial consumer goods prices, excluding energy, expanded to 2.6%, with a notable rise in gold jewelry prices by 77.4% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - Factors influencing the CPI slowdown include the timing of the Spring Festival, which affects the base for year-on-year comparisons, and the impact of declining international oil prices from late last year to early this year [2] - The PPI is expected to continue narrowing its decline, supported by the rebound in global commodity prices and policies aimed at reducing competition, with a significant possibility of positive year-on-year growth in PPI by the second quarter [2] - The upcoming base year rotation for CPI and PPI, starting in 2026, is projected to have a minimal impact on the monthly year-on-year indices, averaging around 0.06 and 0.08 percentage points respectively [2]

中新社北京2月11日电 (记者 王恩博)中国国家统计局11日公布，主要受春节错月影响，1月份中国居民 消费价格指数(CPI)同比涨幅回落至0.2%，但扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI保持温和上涨。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟分析称，上年1月份为春节月份，食品和部分服务价格上涨较多， 导致上年同期对比基数较高，带动本月同比涨幅回落较多。 同期，扣除能源的工业消费品价格同比上涨2.6%，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。其中，黄金饰品价格 同比上涨77.4%。 分类别看，食品价格同比下降0.7%，影响CPI同比下降约0.11个百分点，而上月对CPI的影响为上拉约 0.21个百分点。服务价格同比上涨0.1%，影响CPI同比上涨约0.05个百分点，对CPI同比的上拉影响比上 月减少约0.20个百分点。 中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬表示，1月CPI同比最大的干扰因素是春节错位，市场对其早有预期。 从结构看，虽然食品与能源表现偏弱，但核心CPI表现稳健。展望2月，由于春节错月转向拉升CPI，预 计同比增速将显著回升。(完) 同时，国际油价变动导致能源价格降幅扩大。1月份能源价格同比下降5.0%，影响CPI同比下降约0.3 ...

[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 2 月 11 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 广发宏观 通胀上行加快 [Tabl e_Author] 分析师： 郭磊 SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 SFC CE.no: BNY419 021-38003572 guolei@gf.com.cn [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ⚫ 通胀上行加快。1 月 CPI 环比 0.2%，连续第二个月环比正增长；其中核心 CPI（不包含食品和能源）环比为 0.3%，属 6 个月以来最高，高于春节分布相近的 2015、2018 年 1 月。1 月 PPI 环比 0.4%，属于 2022 年 5 月 以来高点。 据万得数据（下同），1 月 CPI 环比 0.2%，持平前值。 1 月核心 CPI 环比 0.3%，高于前值的 0.2%，持平于 2023 年 1 月的 0.4%，属于 2025 年 8 月以来最高。春节 分布相近的 2015 年、2018 年，核心 CPI 环比均为 0.2%。 1 月 PPI 环比 0.4%，持平于 2023 年 9 月，属 2022 年 5 月以来高 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recovery of consumer demand in January, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year [1] - The January CPI increase is influenced by the Spring Festival, with food prices showing a year-on-year decline, particularly in fresh vegetables and fruits, while pork prices also decreased [3] - The core CPI continues to rise, reaching its highest level in nearly six months, with notable increases in prices for air tickets, travel agency fees, and various services [4] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.4% month-on-month in January, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase, with a narrowing year-on-year decline [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission indicates that price improvements in certain industries are due to enhanced supply-demand adjustments and the rectification of excessive competition [6] - The recent CPI data release is the first following the "base period rotation" in 2025, which aims to better reflect changes in consumer behavior and ensure the representativeness of the "fixed basket" of goods [8][18] Group 3 - The "base period rotation" involves updating the categories and structure of the fixed basket of goods to adapt to changes in consumer spending patterns, conducted every five years [8][11] - The latest rotation has introduced new categories reflecting current consumption trends, such as home security devices and internet medical services, while expanding the survey coverage to approximately 120,000 points [20][22] - The publication of the CPI weights, which indicate the expenditure proportion of each category, enhances transparency and aligns with international standards, reflecting the increasing trend of development-oriented and enjoyment-oriented consumption [24]

二是扣除能源的工业消费品价格同比涨幅持续扩大。扣除能源的工业消费品价格同比上涨2.6%，涨幅 比上月扩大0.1个百分点。其中，黄金饰品价格同比上涨77.4%；家用器具、家庭日用杂品和服装价格涨 幅在2.1%—6.6%之间。 （文章来源：人民网） 二是国际油价变动导致能源价格降幅扩大。1月份能源价格下降5.0%，影响CPI同比下降约0.34个百分 点，对CPI同比的下拉影响比上月增加约0.06个百分点，其中汽油价格同比下降11.4%，降幅比上月扩大 3.0个百分点。 董莉娟表示，居民消费需求持续恢复，核心CPI温和上涨的态势没有改变。 一是核心CPI环比继续上涨。扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI环比上涨0.3%，为近6个月最高。其中，飞 机票和旅行社收费价格环比分别上涨5.7%和2.0%；家政服务、美发、电影及演出票价格涨幅在0.4%— 2.8%之间；数据存储设备和计算机价格分别上涨8.0%和2.6%；家用器具、家庭日用杂品、个人护理用 品价格涨幅在0.7%—1.4%之间。 人民网北京2月11日电国家统计局11日公布数据显示，1月份，居民消费需求持续恢复，居民消费价格指 数（CPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨0. ...

服务价格上涨0.1%，影响CPI同比上涨约0.05个百分点，对CPI同比的上拉影响比上月减少约0.2个百分点。服务中，飞机票、旅行社收费和家政服务价格 分别下降14.3%、7.7%和3.5%，三项合计影响CPI同比下降约0.16个百分点，而上月其对CPI同比影响为上拉约0.04个百分点。 国家统计局2月11日发布的数据显示，1月份，居民消费需求持续恢复，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨0.2%，扣除食品和能源价格的 核心CPI同比上涨0.8%；工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比上涨0.4%，同比下降1.4%。 核心CPI保持温和上涨 1月CPI同比上涨0.2%，涨幅有所回落。对此，国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟认为，主要受春节错月影响。上年1月份为春节月份，食品和部分服务 价格上涨较多，导致上年同期对比基数较高，带动1月同比涨幅回落较多。 图片来源：国家统计局 分类别看，食品价格下降0.7%，影响CPI同比下降约0.11个百分点，而上月对CPI的影响为上拉约0.21个百分点。食品中，鲜菜价格上涨6.9%，涨幅比上月 回落11.3个百分点，对CPI同比的上拉影响比上月回落约0.27个百分 ...

一、CPI同比涨幅回落主要受春节错月影响，核心CPI保持温和上涨 CPI同比涨幅有所回落，主要有以下两方面原因：一是春节错月影响。上年1月份为春节月份，食品和 部分服务价格上涨较多，导致上年同期对比基数较高，带动本月同比涨幅回落较多。分类别看，食品价 格下降0.7%，影响CPI同比下降约0.11个百分点，而上月对CPI的影响为上拉约0.21个百分点。食品中， 鲜菜价格上涨6.9%，涨幅比上月回落11.3个百分点，对CPI同比的上拉影响比上月回落约0.27个百分 点；鲜果价格上涨3.2%，涨幅比上月回落1.2个百分点；猪肉和鸡蛋价格分别下降13.7%和10.6%。服务 价格上涨0.1%，影响CPI同比上涨约0.05个百分点，对CPI同比的上拉影响比上月减少约0.20个百分点。 服务中，飞机票、旅行社收费和家政服务价格分别下降14.3%、7.7%和3.5%，三项合计影响CPI同比下 降约0.16个百分点，而上月其对CPI同比影响为上拉约0.04个百分点。二是国际油价变动导致能源价格 降幅扩大。1月份能源价格下降5.0%，影响CPI同比下降约0.34个百分点，对CPI同比的下拉影响比上月 增加约0.06个百分点，其 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a year-on-year decline in January 2026, primarily due to the impact of the Spring Festival timing and changes in international oil prices [1] Group 1: CPI Analysis - The year-on-year increase in CPI has decreased due to two main reasons: the high base effect from last year's Spring Festival and changes in food and service prices [1] - Food prices decreased by 0.7%, contributing approximately 0.11 percentage points to the decline in CPI year-on-year, while last month, food prices had a positive impact of about 0.21 percentage points [1] - Fresh vegetable prices increased by 6.9%, but the growth rate fell by 11.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, reducing its positive impact on CPI by approximately 0.27 percentage points [1] - Fresh fruit prices rose by 3.2%, with a decrease in growth rate of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month [1] - Pork and egg prices fell by 13.7% and 10.6%, respectively [1] - Service prices increased by 0.1%, contributing about 0.05 percentage points to the CPI year-on-year increase, but this was a reduction of approximately 0.20 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - The prices of airline tickets, travel agency fees, and housekeeping services decreased by 14.3%, 7.7%, and 3.5%, respectively, collectively impacting CPI by approximately -0.16 percentage points [1] Group 2: Energy Price Impact - Energy prices fell by 5.0% in January, contributing approximately 0.34 percentage points to the decline in CPI year-on-year, with this downward impact increasing by about 0.06 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - Gasoline prices decreased by 11.4%, with the decline rate expanding by 3.0 percentage points from the previous month [1]