宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】2025 年杰克逊霍尔年会点评 美联储或九月降息，但或不是连续降息 主要观点 什么是杰克逊霍尔央行年会？ 杰克逊霍尔年会是堪萨斯联储每年 8 月份在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔市举行的年 度经济政策研讨会。主要国家的央行行长历来喜欢在年会上以主旨演讲的方式 宣布货币政策框架调整或转向信号，尤其是美联储主席。从近年来看，鲍威尔 在 2020 年宣布平均通胀目标制、2021 年重申暂时性通胀观点、2022 年坚定抗 通胀决心、2023 年讨论去通胀进程并坚定紧缩立场、2024 年从高利率转向降 息周期。再往前回顾，2010-12 年伯南克对非常规货币政策的暗示，耶伦在 2014 年表露货币政策转向的态度，2015 年费希尔释放美联储将加息的信号。 今年鲍威尔演讲重点之短期政策展望：态度转鸽，降息来临 1、就业下行风险增加。虽然劳动力市场似乎处于平衡状态，但这是一种"供 需显著放缓"造成的"奇怪平衡"，即劳动力供应随着需求而疲软，急剧降低 了保持失业率不变所需的"盈亏平衡"创造就业机会的速度。这意味着就业下 行风险正在上升，风险一旦兑现，可能导致"大幅增加裁员和失业率上升"。 2 ...

受5-6月新增非 农就业数据 大幅下修影响，叠加来自特朗普政府的巨大压力，鲍威尔于杰克逊霍尔全球央行年 会超预期转鸽，美联储9月重启降息已是大概率事件。 我们预计美联储将于9月重启降息，合计降息3-4次（75-100bp），降息终点位于3.5%附近，其中年内降息2-3 次，年底利率位于3.75%附近。我们对降息终点的预期较市场预期（3.2%）更偏鹰派。 一是美联储降息与《大而美法案》推动美国宏观政策转向"双宽松"，共振推升经济、就业及通胀，鲍威尔担忧 的"非线性下行"风险可能不会发生。 二是"再通胀"风险可能对明年11月中期选举构成实质性威胁，特朗普团队可能转向"宽财政，稳货币"的政策组 合。宽财政负责经济增长，稳货币负责控制通胀，合力为中期选举保驾护航。 我们认为市场可能复刻去年下半年走势，短期市场或延续续鸽派交易，但同时也做好中长期反转的准备。 一、宏观研判：立场转鸽 关税对通胀的推升更可能是一次性的，发生"工资-物价"螺旋及长期预期脱锚的概率不高。 由于就业市场面临 下行压力，"工资-物价"螺旋很难成型。尽管家庭和企业仍然存在广泛的通胀担忧，但基于市场和调查指标 看，长期通胀预期仍被锚定在长期目标（2% ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of stagflation, characterized by the coexistence of high inflation and high unemployment, which challenges traditional economic theories and policies [2][9]. Group 1: Definition and Characteristics of Stagflation - Stagflation is defined as an economic condition where stagnation (slow or negative growth) and inflation (rising prices) occur simultaneously [3]. - It disrupts the traditional trade-off between inflation and unemployment, leading to a complex economic environment [2]. Group 2: Causes of Stagflation - Supply shocks, such as sudden increases in oil prices, are classic causes of stagflation, leading to higher costs and reduced economic activity [2][7]. - Poor economic policies, including overly loose monetary and fiscal measures, can exacerbate inflation without addressing stagnation [2][7]. - Other contributing factors include restrictive production policies, wage-price spirals, and self-fulfilling inflation expectations [7]. Group 3: Historical Context and Market Reactions - The 1970s in the U.S. serve as a historical example of stagflation, marked by high inflation rates reaching nearly 15% and unemployment rates exceeding 8% [6][8]. - The stock market suffered significantly during this period, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average showing little to no growth, and many previously popular stocks collapsing [6][8]. - Bond markets also faced challenges, with rising interest rates leading to falling bond prices and negative real yields [8][12]. Group 4: Policy Responses to Stagflation - Initial policy responses included price and wage controls, which failed to resolve underlying issues and led to market distortions [8]. - The later approach involved aggressive monetary tightening under Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, which successfully reduced inflation but resulted in a severe economic recession [8][9]. - The experience of the 1970s highlights the dilemma policymakers face: stimulating the economy can worsen inflation, while tightening can deepen stagnation [9]. Group 5: Implications for Current Economic Conditions - Understanding the causes and historical responses to stagflation is crucial for analyzing current economic conditions in the U.S. and globally [10].