编辑 | 阿景 日本央行要动手加息了？12月19号的政策会议还没开，市场已经在赌25个基点的加息，这要是成了，可 是1995年以来头一遭。 植田和男最近讲话一套接一套，又是"条件成熟就加息"，又是"得慢慢来"，把市场胃口吊得足足的。 日本这宽松政策搞了快30年，从安倍经济学到黑田时代，负利率、收益率曲线控制，工具箱都快翻烂 了。 现在突然说要转向，肯定不是拍脑袋决定的。 文 | 钱钱 我翻了翻日本总务省11月的数据，核心CPI到了2.5%，刚好踩在2%的通胀目标线上，这算是给了央行一 个"动手"的理由。 上周跟在东京做外贸的发小打电话，他吐槽日元跌得连进货成本都快扛不住了。 10月份日元兑美元都跌到157.89了，进口的能源、原材料贵了一大截，国内超市里的牛奶、面包价格跟 着涨，老百姓怨言不少。 央行再不做点啥，输入性通胀真压不住。 不过加息这事儿，市场反应也挺有意思。 植田说"接近持续性2%通胀"那天，日元一下子冲到156，做外汇的朋友差点把多单平了，结果没半小时 又掉回158。 说白了，大家还是不信日本经济真能扛住加息，毕竟2020年疫情后GDP起起落落，复苏根基太浅。 加息信号背后，日元和市场的"拉锯战 ...

Core Viewpoint - The likelihood of the Federal Reserve changing its 2% inflation target is minimal, but discussions around alternative targets may intensify as the composition of the Federal Reserve Board changes and Powell's term ends in May next year [1][4]. Inflation Performance - The U.S. inflation rate is expected to show that it has exceeded the Federal Reserve's 2% target for 54 consecutive months, which is a rare occurrence for a central bank [1][3]. - The median expectation among Federal Reserve officials indicates that overall Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation and core PCE inflation may not return to 2% until 2028, and even this timeline may be difficult to achieve [3]. Employment and Monetary Policy - The dual mandate of the Federal Reserve includes "full employment and price stability," but rising risks in the employment sector have prompted a restart of the rate-cutting cycle [3]. - Current financial conditions are among the most accommodative in years, with economic growth remaining robust, suggesting that rate cuts could further exacerbate inflationary pressures [3]. Trust in Inflation Targeting - The longer the Federal Reserve fails to meet its inflation target, the more likely public trust in the "inflation target itself" and the overall policy-making of the Federal Reserve may be undermined [3]. Potential Shift to Inflation Range - There is a possibility of adopting an "inflation range" as an alternative to the current target, which some Federal Reserve officials, including Atlanta Fed President Bostic, have shown openness to [5]. - Bostic suggested that a range of 1.75% to 2.25% could be a reasonable starting point, emphasizing that this approach would provide greater flexibility for policymakers [5]. Advantages and Disadvantages of Inflation Range - An "inflation range" could allow the Federal Reserve to avoid being technically in violation of its target even if inflation exceeds 2%, as long as it remains within the defined range [5]. - However, a wider range could lead to accumulated pressure if inflation spirals out of control, potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to implement overly aggressive and uncomfortable policy measures [6]. Global Context and Consumer Expectations - While the "inflation range" approach is more common in emerging markets, developed economies like Canada, Australia, and New Zealand have also adopted it, although central banks generally prefer more precise inflation targets [8]. - Consumer expectations for inflation are notably high, with a one-year expectation of 4.8% and a five-year expectation of 3.9%, which could lead to a "wage-price spiral" if not addressed [8].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut on September 17, which was seen as a victory for Trump after months of pressure [2][4] - Trump's expectation was for a larger cut of at least 50 basis points, as he had previously claimed that rates were at least 300 basis points too high [2][4] - The Federal Reserve's stance indicated that this rate cut was a "risk management" move and not a signal for extensive monetary easing, which contradicted Trump's desires [4][5] Group 2 - The voting results from the Federal Open Market Committee showed 11 members in favor of the 25 basis point cut, with only Trump's nominee voting against it, highlighting a lack of support for Trump's influence [5][7] - Market reactions post-announcement were mixed, with the Dow Jones rising slightly while the Nasdaq fell, indicating skepticism about the effectiveness of the rate cut [7][9] - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, with interest payments projected to consume a significant portion of the federal budget, raising concerns about long-term economic stability [9][14] Group 3 - The potential for a "debt spiral" is a concern, as increased borrowing to stimulate the economy could lead to higher interest payments, further straining the budget [12][14] - Inflation remains a persistent issue, with consumer prices rising due to tariffs, which could complicate the Federal Reserve's ability to manage monetary policy effectively [12][14] - Projections indicate that by 2025, U.S. GDP growth may slow to 1.6%, with interest payments on the national debt reaching a historic high as a percentage of GDP [14][15]

Group 1 - The persistent inflation in the UK is a significant concern for Chancellor Rachel Reeves as she prepares her second budget, with warnings from business groups about potential operational cost increases for companies [1][2] - The UK government is projected to face a fiscal gap of £35 billion due to rising borrowing costs and changes in welfare plans, which may lead to new regulatory burdens and tax increases for businesses [2][5] - The increase in the national living wage and employer National Insurance contributions has been linked to rising inflation, with estimates suggesting that these policies could push inflation rates higher [6][8] Group 2 - Retail and business groups express concerns that government policies may exacerbate inflationary pressures, with small businesses facing additional costs from new regulations and tax increases [6][8] - The Bank of England is increasingly worried that government policies are undermining its efforts to control inflation, particularly due to rising labor costs impacting food prices [8][11] - The anticipated increase in food prices, driven by new packaging taxes and labor costs, is expected to contribute to a rise in inflation rates, with projections indicating food price inflation could reach 6% later this year [8][11]

Group 1: Jackson Hole Conference Insights - The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is an annual event held by the Kansas Federal Reserve, where central bank leaders discuss monetary policy adjustments[2] - Powell's recent speech indicated a shift towards a dovish stance, suggesting a potential interest rate cut in September due to increasing employment risks[3][11] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Risks - Employment risks are rising, with a peculiar balance in the labor market due to significant supply-demand slowdown, potentially leading to increased layoffs and unemployment[3][12] - The likelihood of tariffs causing sustained inflation is deemed low, with current price impacts expected to be temporary[3][12] Group 3: Interest Rate Projections - Following Powell's speech, the probability of a September rate cut increased from 72% to 81.3%, with the average expected cuts for the year rising from 1.91 to 2.18 times[4][14] - The current policy rate appears slightly ahead of estimated levels, indicating that any rate cuts may be more preventive rather than recession-driven[4][14] Group 4: Market Reactions and Framework Adjustments - In a preventive rate cut scenario, U.S. stock indices typically rise, supported by resilient earnings, while long-term U.S. Treasury yields are likely to decline[5][19] - The Fed is shifting from an average inflation targeting framework to a flexible inflation targeting approach, allowing for more adaptability in response to economic conditions[6][20][25]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the likelihood of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts in September, with expectations of 3-4 cuts totaling 75-100 basis points, influenced by recent employment data revisions and political pressures from the Trump administration [1][10][13]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Analysis - Powell has adopted a dovish stance, indicating a shift in risk balance towards a downward trend in employment and a temporary inflation outlook [3][10]. - The current state of full employment is attributed to a unique balance from simultaneous supply and demand contractions, with significant downward risks anticipated for future employment [3][9]. - Economic growth has notably slowed, with actual GDP growth in the first half of the year at 1.2%, significantly lower than the projected 2.5% for 2024, largely due to a slowdown in consumer expansion [9][10]. Group 2: Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to restart rate cuts, with Powell signaling that the current policy remains restrictive and may need adjustment based on economic outlook and risk balance [10][11]. - The Fed has made two key adjustments to its monetary policy framework: eliminating the inflation compensation strategy and shifting focus from solely full employment to also considering risks of both overheating and cooling in the job market [11][12]. Group 3: Impacts and Outlook - The anticipated rate cuts, combined with the effects of the "Big and Beautiful" legislation, are likely to lead the U.S. macroeconomic policy into a phase of "dual easing," potentially strengthening the economy and employment [13]. - Inflation risks may pose a threat to the upcoming midterm elections, prompting a possible shift in the Trump administration's approach to a combination of "expansive fiscal and stable monetary" policies [13]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Strategies - Market expectations for rate cuts have surged, with significant declines in U.S. Treasury yields across various maturities and a drop in the dollar index [14]. - Recommendations include cautiously going long on U.S. Treasuries with shorter durations while being wary of long-duration bonds, and maintaining a short position on the dollar with an awareness of potential reversal risks in the fourth quarter [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of stagflation, characterized by the coexistence of high inflation and high unemployment, which challenges traditional economic theories and policies [2][9]. Group 1: Definition and Characteristics of Stagflation - Stagflation is defined as an economic condition where stagnation (slow or negative growth) and inflation (rising prices) occur simultaneously [3]. - It disrupts the traditional trade-off between inflation and unemployment, leading to a complex economic environment [2]. Group 2: Causes of Stagflation - Supply shocks, such as sudden increases in oil prices, are classic causes of stagflation, leading to higher costs and reduced economic activity [2][7]. - Poor economic policies, including overly loose monetary and fiscal measures, can exacerbate inflation without addressing stagnation [2][7]. - Other contributing factors include restrictive production policies, wage-price spirals, and self-fulfilling inflation expectations [7]. Group 3: Historical Context and Market Reactions - The 1970s in the U.S. serve as a historical example of stagflation, marked by high inflation rates reaching nearly 15% and unemployment rates exceeding 8% [6][8]. - The stock market suffered significantly during this period, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average showing little to no growth, and many previously popular stocks collapsing [6][8]. - Bond markets also faced challenges, with rising interest rates leading to falling bond prices and negative real yields [8][12]. Group 4: Policy Responses to Stagflation - Initial policy responses included price and wage controls, which failed to resolve underlying issues and led to market distortions [8]. - The later approach involved aggressive monetary tightening under Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, which successfully reduced inflation but resulted in a severe economic recession [8][9]. - The experience of the 1970s highlights the dilemma policymakers face: stimulating the economy can worsen inflation, while tightening can deepen stagnation [9]. Group 5: Implications for Current Economic Conditions - Understanding the causes and historical responses to stagflation is crucial for analyzing current economic conditions in the U.S. and globally [10].