Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term and may rise further in 2026 compared to 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and the role of Central Huijin [1]. - The bond market is favored by asset shortages and weak economic conditions, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1]. - Metal prices are influenced by factors such as supply disruptions, macro sentiment, and cost changes. Some metals are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility or are subject to supply concerns [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand, and cost support. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. - Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as seasonal changes, policy support, and supply and demand. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. Summary by Category A-shares - A-share market has continuous trading volume increase. Short-term, the index is expected to remain strong. In 2026, the index may continue to rise on the basis of 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and Central Huijin [1]. Bonds - Asset shortages and weak economic conditions are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Metals - Copper: Supply disruptions and improved macro sentiment have led to a rise in copper prices, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but macro sentiment is positive, and global aluminum ingot supply is expected to tighten, leading to a strong aluminum price [1]. - Alumina: Supply has significant release potential, putting pressure on prices. However, the current price is close to the cost line, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: Fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. With positive macro sentiment, zinc prices have risen, but the upside space is limited due to fundamental pressure [1]. - Nickel: Supply concerns have led to a significant increase in nickel prices and an increase in positions. The short-term price may be strongly oscillating, but high risks and volatility are present at high price levels. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro sentiment [1]. Industrial and Energy Chemicals - Polycrystalline silicon: Northwest production has increased, while southwest production has decreased. December production schedules for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon have declined [1]. - Carbonate lithium: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, with strong energy storage demand and increased supply from restarts. Prices have risen rapidly in the short term [1]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Futures-spot arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit-taking. The price valuation is not high, and short-selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near-term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is positive, and there is still an upward opportunity for far-term contracts [1]. - Silicone and ferrosilicon: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. In the short term, expectations dominate, and energy consumption control and anti-involution may disrupt supply [1]. - Soda ash: The market sentiment has improved, and the supply and demand are supportive. The price is low and expected to be strong in the short term [1]. - Coking coal and coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, there may still be room for price increases, but the actual increase is difficult to judge, and volatility increases after a significant rise [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil: The December MPOB data is expected to be bearish, but the price is expected to reverse under themes such as seasonal production cuts, the B50 policy, and US biofuels. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for [1]. - Soybean oil: The fundamentals are strong, and it is recommended to be overweight in the oil market. Consider the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to the central government's No. 1 document in the first quarter of next year, planting area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. The short side consensus is strong. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short term [1]. - Corn: With the release of reserve and imported grains, the supply has increased. The spot price is expected to be firm in the short term, and the futures price will oscillate within a range [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug-of-war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottoming out and rebounding, and the downward space for the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward driving factors. The price is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, with no prominent supply-demand contradictions [1]. - Asphalt: The "14th Five-Year Plan" rush demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit margin is high [1]. - Natural rubber: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures-spot price difference has rebounded significantly, and the midstream inventory has increased substantially [1]. - BR rubber: The upward momentum has slowed down, the spot price has led the recovery of the basis, and the processing profit has narrowed. There are positive factors for future domestic butadiene exports [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, and the PTA market is expected to remain tight in 2026. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the gasoline spread provides support for aromatics [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, plan to shut down next month. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply-side news, and the downstream demand is slightly better than expected [1]. - Styrene: The Asian market is stable, with suppliers reluctant to cut prices due to losses and buyers pressing for lower prices due to weak downstream demand. The market is in a weak balance, and the upward momentum depends on overseas markets [1]. - Urea: The export sentiment has eased, and the upside space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side [1]. - PE: There is a risk of rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts. The supply pressure is high, and the market expectation is weak due to planned production increases in 2026 [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is high, and the downstream improvement is less than expected. The cost is supported by high propylene monomer and crude oil prices [1]. - PVC: The global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current supply pressure is rising. The demand is weak, and the implementation of differential electricity prices in the northwest may force the clearance of PVC production capacity [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, and the import cost provides strong support. Geopolitical conflicts have increased the risk premium. The inventory accumulation trend has slowed down, and the domestic port inventory is decreasing. The long-term demand for LPG is expected to increase [1]. Aviation - It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumptions [1].

证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 2025 年 12 月 24 日 电影票价明显修复，有色、存储器价格强势 ——行业景气观察（1224） 本周景气度改善的方向主要在资源品、中游制造和信息技术领域。上游资源品中， 金属、钢铁、煤炭价格多数上涨；中游制造领域，新能源产业链价格多数上涨， 11 月金属成形机床产量三个月滚动同比增幅扩大。信息技术中，存储器价格持 续上涨，11 月电信主营业务收入三个月滚动同比增幅扩大。消费服务领域，生猪 养殖利润上行。上市公司 Q4 盈利有望延续正增长，但增幅可能有所收窄。推荐 关注年报盈利有望高增或有改善的有色、电池、军工电子、航空/航天装备、电网 设备、工程机械、半导体、传媒等。 ❑【资源品】建筑钢材成交量十日均值上行；钢坯价格、螺纹钢价格均上行。煤炭价 格方面，秦皇岛优混动力煤价格下行，京唐港山西主焦煤库提价上行；焦炭期货结 算价、焦煤期货结算价上行。库存方面，秦皇岛港煤炭库存上行，京唐港炼焦煤库 存、天津港焦炭库存下行。全国水泥价格指数上行。Brent 国际原油价格上行；中 国化工产品价格指数周环比上行，化工品价格多数下行，PVC、PTA 涨幅居前， 聚乙烯、聚合 MID 跌幅 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views of the Report - PX: Short - term rebound due to oil price support, but mid - term trend remains weak. Hold short positions and maintain reverse calendar spreads [6]. - PTA: Short - term cost support is strong, but mid - term unilateral trend is weak. Implement 1 - 5 reverse calendar spreads [7]. - MEG: Unilateral trend is bearish due to large supply pressure. Short on rallies and hold reverse calendar spreads [7][8]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - **Crude Oil**: Due to the instability of the Russia - Ukraine situation and potential escalation of US sanctions on some oil - producing countries, international oil prices rose. NYMEX crude futures contract 11 rose $1.13/barrel (+1.81% month - on - month), and ICE Brent crude futures contract 11 rose $1.06/barrel (+1.59% month - on - month) [3]. - **PX**: On September 23, PX price declined. The Asian PX price dropped month - on - month as market sentiment and buying interest weakened. The 10 - month MOPJ was estimated at $586/ton CFR. The PX valuation on September 23 was $803/ton, a $5 decrease from September 22 [3][4]. - **PTA**: The spot price dropped to 4470 yuan/ton, with a mainstream basis of 01 - 79 [5]. - **MEG**: The spot price this week and next week was around 4325 yuan/ton (high) and 4270 yuan/ton (low), with a daily average of 4297 yuan/ton. The planned arrival at major ports from September 22 - 28 was about 7.3 tons [5]. - **Polyester**: On September 23, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally weak, with an average sales rate of just over 30% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average, with an average sales rate of 44% by 3:00 pm [6]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX, PTA, and MEG is 0, indicating a neutral trend [6]. Fundamental Data | Futures | Yesterday's Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Month Spread | Yesterday's Closing Price | Previous Day's Closing Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX Main | 6530 | - 6592 | - 0.94% | PX11 - 1 | 4 | 18 | - 14 | | PTA Main | 4556 | - 30 | - 0.65% | PTA11 - 1 | - 22 | - 20 | - 2 | | MEG Main | 4212 | - 28 | - 0.66% | MEG1 - 5 | - 67 | - 54 | - 13 | | PF Main | 6250 | - 24 | - 0.38% | PF11 - 12 | 40 | 34 | 6 | | SC Main | 473.1 | - 9.9 | - 2.05% | SC11 - 12 | - 0.5 | - 0.2 | - 0.3 | | Spot | Yesterday's Price | Previous Day's Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX CFR China ($/ton) | 803.33 | 808.33 | - 5 | | PTA East China (yuan/ton) | 4468 | 4515 | - 47 | | MEG Spot | 4292 | 4342 | - 50 | | Naphtha MOPJ | 597.5 | 595.62 | 1.88 | | Dated Brent ($/barrel) | 68.41 | 66.75 | 1.66 | | Spot Processing Fee | Yesterday's Price | Previous Day's Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX - Naphtha Spread | 218.92 | 227.29 | - 8.38 | | PTA Processing Fee | 174.72 | 189.33 | - 14.61 | | Short - Fiber Processing Fee | 237.89 | 220.08 | 17.81 | | Bottle - Chip Processing Fee | 67.94 | 40.17 | 27.78 | | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | - 6.01 | - 6.01 | 0 | [2]

Core Viewpoint - JinkoSolar reported a significant decline in performance for the first half of 2025, with revenue dropping by 32.63% year-on-year to 31.831 billion yuan and a net loss of 2.909 billion yuan compared to a profit of 1.2 billion yuan in the same period last year, primarily due to intensified competition and falling prices in the photovoltaic market [2][5][6]. Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of 31.831 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 32.63% year-on-year [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -2.909 billion yuan, a decline of 342.38% compared to a profit of 1.2 billion yuan in the previous year [5][6]. - The non-recurring net profit was -3.175 billion yuan, a staggering drop of 1560.33% year-on-year [5]. - The net cash flow from operating activities was -3.812 billion yuan, attributed to a decrease in received sales payments [7]. Market Context - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing severe challenges, with many players facing similar performance declines. In the first quarter of 2025, 31 A-share listed photovoltaic companies reported a combined net loss of 12.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 274.3% [7]. - Over 40 companies have announced delistings, bankruptcies, or mergers since 2024 [7]. - The industry is facing overcapacity, with domestic manufacturers' production capacity exceeding 1100 GW, while optimistic demand for 2025 is projected at 600 GW globally and 250 GW in China [8]. Strategic Response - JinkoSolar is focusing on technological innovation, global market expansion, and efficient operations to address the challenges posed by supply-demand imbalances and price declines [9]. - The company has reduced its R&D expenses to 1.175 billion yuan, a decrease of 56.95% year-on-year, with R&D expenditure accounting for 3.69% of revenue, down from 5.78% [7]. Leadership and Wealth Impact - The wealth of the founder, Li Xian De, has significantly decreased, with the family's net worth dropping by 6.31 billion yuan to 15.2 billion yuan compared to the previous year, and by 20.1 billion yuan from its peak in 2023 [3][10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that Yidazong expects a decline in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025, projected between 120 million to 140 million HKD, which is a decrease compared to the same period in 2024 [2] - The group's revenue is anticipated to be between 11 billion to 13 billion HKD for the same period, reflecting a downturn [2] - The decline in performance is primarily attributed to a sluggish market in the first half of 2025, with a continuous drop in coking coal prices leading to reduced revenue and gross margins [2] Group 2 - The average price of coking coal for the first half of 2025 is expected to be 175 USD per ton, representing a nearly 40% decrease compared to the first half of 2024 [2] - The revenue from the group's supply chain trading segment is projected to decrease by approximately 40% year-on-year due to the price impact [2] - There is an increase in the proportion of trading volume from non-China sales [2]

Core Insights - The price of "Sunshine Rose" grapes has significantly decreased from a peak of 300 yuan per jin to around 5-14.9 yuan per jin in recent years, indicating a substantial market shift [1][2] - The increase in supply due to widespread cultivation and grafting practices by farmers has led to an oversupply situation, driving prices down [1] - Despite the lower prices, sales volume has decreased by one-third compared to the previous year, attributed to the common availability of Sunshine Rose grapes in the market [2] Price Trends - Sunshine Rose grapes were priced at approximately 13 yuan per jin last year, while current prices range from 5 to 14.9 yuan per jin [2] - The wholesale price in the Jinan Qili Market is reported to be between 5 to 7 yuan per jin, reflecting a significant drop in market prices [1] Supply Dynamics - The introduction of Sunshine Rose grapes to China in 2015 led to initial high prices due to limited supply, with wholesale prices reaching 150 yuan per jin [1] - Farmers have increasingly shifted to growing Sunshine Rose grapes due to their higher yield and easier management compared to other varieties like "Jufeng" grapes [1] Market Demand - The current market demand for Sunshine Rose grapes has not kept pace with the increased supply, resulting in lower sales volumes despite the price drop [2]

Core Insights - In July, prices of grains, oils, and subsidiary food products in Zibo City remained stable, while meat prices experienced a slight decline, and vegetable prices showed more increases than decreases [1] Group 1: Grain and Oil Prices - In July, the average price of medium wheat was 1.19 yuan per 500 grams, up 0.85% month-on-month; medium corn also averaged 1.19 yuan per 500 grams, up 1.71%; special flour averaged 2.24 yuan per 500 grams, up 0.45%; peanut oil (5 liters) averaged 146.69 yuan, unchanged from the previous month; granulated sugar averaged 5.50 yuan per 500 grams, unchanged; and refined iodized salt averaged 2.07 yuan per 500 grams, unchanged [2] Group 2: Meat and Egg Prices - In July, the average price of lean pork was 15.51 yuan per 500 grams, down 1.02% month-on-month; five-spice pork averaged 14.36 yuan per 500 grams, down 2.18%; boneless hind leg meat averaged 13.96 yuan per 500 grams, down 1.55%; and rib average price was 19.01 yuan per 500 grams, down 0.99%; lamb averaged 34.57 yuan per 500 grams, down 1.37%; while the average price of white strip chicken was 8.94 yuan per 500 grams, down 1.43% [3] - The average price of eggs in the market was 3.43 yuan per 500 grams, up 0.29%, while supermarket eggs averaged 3.51 yuan per 500 grams, down 0.85% [3] Group 3: Vegetable Prices - In July, the vegetable prices in Zibo City showed more increases than decreases, with 14 out of 17 monitored vegetable prices rising; the main reasons for the price increases included adverse weather conditions affecting growth and increased costs for harvesting and storage [4] Group 4: Metal and Fertilizer Prices - In July, the average price of ammonium bicarbonate was 0.80 yuan per kilogram, down 1.24%; diammonium phosphate averaged 4.07 yuan per kilogram, unchanged; potassium chloride averaged 3.15 yuan per kilogram, down 2.17%; and urea averaged 2.02 yuan per kilogram, down 0.49%; meanwhile, copper averaged 79,581.67 yuan per ton, up 1.15% [5] Group 5: Fuel Prices - In July, the maximum retail prices for fuel were set at 7.22 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 7.75 yuan for 95-octane gasoline, 6.82 yuan for 0-octane diesel, and 7.22 yuan for -10-octane diesel [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the polysilicon market is experiencing a slight price decline due to high inventory levels and rapid price drops in downstream products [1][2] - The transaction price range for n-type re-investment materials is between 360,000 to 410,000 CNY per ton, with an average transaction price of 386,000 CNY per ton, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 1.53% [1] - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 350,000 to 370,000 CNY per ton, with an average price remaining stable at 360,000 CNY per ton [1] - The transaction price range for p-type polysilicon is between 300,000 to 350,000 CNY per ton, with an average price of 313,000 CNY per ton, showing a month-on-month decrease of 3.10% [1] - The current monthly supply and demand balance is precarious, and if downstream operations continue to decline, there may be a risk of inventory accumulation in the polysilicon sector [1] - Downstream companies are cautious in signing large orders due to previous price declines, opting for high-frequency, small-batch purchases which may stabilize polysilicon prices [1] Group 2 - As of this week, two companies have entered maintenance shutdowns, reducing the number of operating companies to 11 [2] - The production of polysilicon in China is reported to be 99,100 tons as of April 2025, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 6.08% [2] - The market is experiencing frequent shifts in expectations due to a surge in polysilicon news, with actual outcomes dependent on company announcements [2]

Group 1: Rebar Market - The main rebar contract has shown a downward trend, closing at 3022 CNY/ton, down 50 CNY, a decrease of 1.63% [1] - Weekly rebar production was 2.2353 million tons, a decrease of 98,500 tons from the previous week, down 4.22% [1] - Demand has weakened significantly, with rebar demand at 2.139 million tons, down 778,100 tons from the previous week, a decline of 26.67% [1] - Social inventory of rebar is approximately 6.5363 million tons, an increase of 96,300 tons from the previous week, indicating slower destocking than expected [1] Group 2: Hot Rolled Coil Market - The main hot rolled coil contract opened lower and fluctuated downwards, closing at 3157 CNY/ton, down 43 CNY, a decrease of 1.34% [1] - Domestic hot rolled coil production remained high at 3.2038 million tons, leading to ample supply [1] - Social inventory of hot rolled coil increased to 2.8032 million tons, up 39,900 tons from the previous week, indicating a slowdown in destocking [1] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Market - Lithium carbonate prices hit a new low, closing at 63489.03 CNY/ton, down 1.84% [1] - Upstream lithium salt producers have reduced their willingness to sell, but high inventory levels among traders are keeping prices under pressure [1] - The lithium market is currently oversupplied with weak demand, leading to a continued decline in lithium prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market is experiencing a slight decline in prices due to a combination of increased supply and reduced demand, leading to a pessimistic market sentiment [1][2]. Price Trends - The main contract price fluctuated from 9945 CNY/ton to 9785 CNY/ton, with a decrease of 1.61% [1]. - The national average price is 10676 CNY/ton, down by 135 CNY/ton [1]. - Specific prices for different grades are as follows: 553 at 10002 CNY/ton, 441 at 10471 CNY/ton, and 421 at 10875 CNY/ton [1]. - Regional prices include Xinjiang at 10133 CNY/ton, Yunnan at 10883 CNY/ton, Fujian at 15640 CNY/ton, and Sichuan at 11000 CNY/ton [1]. - FOB prices remain stable [1]. Market Dynamics - The industrial silicon market is seeing weak transactions, with downstream purchases primarily driven by immediate needs [1]. - Supply remains stable with minimal changes in national production, except for major northern manufacturers resuming operations as planned [1]. - There is no significant willingness for other manufacturers to resume production, leading to an overall increase in supply [1]. - Demand is expected to decrease due to the implementation of production cuts by organic silicon monomer plants, which may further reduce demand for industrial silicon [1][2]. - The production of polysilicon remains stable, maintaining demand for industrial silicon, while aluminum alloy manufacturers are purchasing based on their needs [1]. Future Outlook - The supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase, while demand is anticipated to decrease, indicating no significant improvement in the supply-demand fundamentals [2]. - Inventory pressure remains high, and prices are expected to continue fluctuating within a bottom range [2].