来源：市场资讯 （来源：辰珵） 在全球金融市场加速数字化转型的浪潮中，现实世界资产（RWA）代币化正以惊人速度重塑投资格 局。据最新行业预测，RWA市场规模预计将在2034年达到30万亿美元，这一数字正在引发传统金融与 加密世界的深度碰撞。在这一趋势下，XBIT去中心化交易所凭借其创新的交易架构，为稳定币与RWA 资产的深度融合提供了重要基础设施支持。 机构级基础设施完善催生RWA生态繁荣 稳定币成为RWA生态系统的核心结算层 在RWA市场快速扩张的背景下，稳定币展现出惊人的增长潜力。最新数据显示，以美元计价的稳定币 USDT市值已达1750亿美元，USDC市值也达到750亿美元，这些稳定币正逐渐取代SWIFT进行中小型转 账，实现近乎即时且低成本的全球资金流动。 XBIT去中心化交易所观察到，稳定币在RWA生态中正扮演着三重关键角色：首先是价值锚定工具，为 代币化资产提供价格参照；其次是流动性媒介，实现不同资产类别间的快速转换；最后是结算层基础设 施，确保交易效率与安全性。XBIT平台通过优化稳定币的交易对和流动性池，为RWA资产的定价和流 转提供了更加完善的市场机制。 监管框架与市场环境同步演进 今日早间 ...

Core Insights - The article explains the essence of blockchain technology in simple terms, focusing on its four main characteristics: decentralization, immutability, transparency, and traceability [1] Group 1: Blockchain Fundamentals - The discussion begins with the story of Bitcoin and its creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, to introduce the concept of blockchain [1] - Key features of blockchain include its decentralized nature, which eliminates the need for a central authority, and its immutability, ensuring that once data is recorded, it cannot be altered [1] - Transparency and traceability are highlighted as essential attributes, allowing all transactions to be publicly visible and verifiable [1] Group 2: Applications of Blockchain - The article outlines various applications of blockchain in finance, including Bitcoin, stablecoins (USDT, USDC), and decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms like Uniswap and Aave [1] - Real World Assets (RWA) are mentioned as another area where blockchain is being utilized, alongside supply chain traceability, anti-counterfeiting measures, charitable donations, NFT art, and copyright verification [1] - The content serves as an introductory guide for those looking to understand cryptocurrencies and digital currencies, providing a comprehensive overview of the blockchain landscape [1]

作者：刘诗瑶 从业资格证号：F3041949 交易咨询证号：Z0019385 邮箱：liushiyao@zjtfqh.com 审核：李文涛 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 ◼ 经历长达四个月的盘整后，黄金终于再次突破上涨，年内涨幅已接近40%。随着2025年9月、10月和12月连续降息逐渐成为基准情形，叠加对 美联储独立性丧失以及美元信用体系的不信任的宏观对冲，我们仍然相信金价还有进一步上涨的空间。 ◼ "大美丽法案"落地、关税收入暴增以及长端国债增发计划推迟等举措使得美国的财政前景似乎有所改善，但由于财政支出存在刚性约束， 即便疫情这类特殊危机阶段已过，6%的赤字率仍成为一种"新常态"。这一深层财政背景，正是黄金价格获得支撑的根本逻辑。 ◼ 与此同时，美联储独立性的削弱也成为推升黄金的另一重要动力。尽管FOMC的人员架构未发生实质性变动，但政治力量对货币政策的干预明 显加强，进一步动摇了市场对传统政策框架的信心。 ◼ 二季度以来，全球央行购金量有所减少，但我们预计各国央行——尤其是俄罗斯、土耳其和中国——继续推进储备资产分散化的动机仍将延 续。在减持美债的同时增持黄金， ...

Core Insights - The report focuses on the rise of Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, analyzing its concept, value, regulation, practice, and trends, highlighting its role in bridging traditional finance and the Web3.0 ecosystem [1][11][13]. Group 1: RWA Concept and Background - RWA refers to the tokenization of physical assets like real estate, bonds, and commodities using blockchain technology, enhancing asset liquidity, transparency, and accessibility [1][18]. - The emergence of RWA addresses traditional financial pain points such as low liquidity, high entry barriers, and lack of transparency, leveraging blockchain's immutable nature and smart contracts for automation [1][23][25]. - The global RWA market has surpassed hundreds of billions of dollars, with expectations for explosive growth in the coming years [13][24]. Group 2: Investment Value and Advantages - RWA significantly enhances asset liquidity and market efficiency, with tokenized real estate trading cycles averaging 47 days compared to traditional commercial real estate's 6-9 months [2][39]. - RWA improves investment accessibility and promotes financial inclusion by lowering entry barriers, allowing broader participation in high-value assets [2][39]. - The tokenization process increases transparency and security, although challenges regarding the credibility of off-chain data remain [2][39]. Group 3: RWA Asset Categories and Examples - RWA encompasses diverse asset categories, including stablecoins (e.g., USDT, USDC), private credit, U.S. Treasury bonds, real estate, commodities, intellectual property, and emerging sectors like renewable energy and agriculture [2][29][30]. - Stablecoins serve as foundational RWA, providing a stable value anchor and facilitating the integration of Web3.0 with the real economy [2][34][37]. - The tokenization of real estate allows fractional ownership, significantly reducing investment thresholds and enhancing liquidity [2][30]. Group 4: Global Regulatory Landscape - The global regulatory framework for RWA is evolving, with a focus on compliance and risk management, as seen in the U.S. GENIUS Act and the EU MiCA regulation [3][4]. - Different jurisdictions are adopting varied approaches to RWA regulation, with the U.S. and EU leading in establishing comprehensive frameworks [3][4]. - In China, RWA is in a regulatory gray area, with initiatives focusing on private chains and sectors like renewable energy and agriculture [3][4]. Group 5: Future Trends and Challenges - The RWA market is expected to grow significantly, driven by institutional participation and the increasing importance of stablecoins as a liquidity infrastructure [3][6][12]. - Emerging asset categories like computing power are gaining traction, presenting new opportunities and legal challenges [3][6][12]. - The report emphasizes the need for ongoing research into the intersection of law and technology to support the healthy development of RWA [3][6].

Core Insights - A significant capital migration is occurring globally, with funds leaving the previously dominant tech sector and moving towards new value opportunities [1][3] - This shift is characterized by a broader sector rotation, with capital flowing into defensive sectors like healthcare and utilities, as well as international markets with more attractive valuations [3][4] Group 1: Market Trends - The Nasdaq index's momentum has halted, indicating a major change in investment themes [1] - Bitcoin trading volume has surged over 200% in just one month, while stablecoin liquidity has also reached new highs [4] - The demand for decentralized and censorship-resistant value storage methods is increasing, as investors seek alternatives to traditional safe-haven assets [4][6] Group 2: Political and Economic Influences - Political attacks on the independence of the Federal Reserve have undermined trust in fiat currency, leading to a shift in market perception of Bitcoin as a hedge against broader political and institutional risks [6][7] - The phenomenon of "fiscal dominance" is emerging, where monetary policy is increasingly influenced by government debt and fiscal needs [6][9] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Traditional assets are being tokenized through RWA (Real World Asset) methods, allowing for fractional ownership and attracting significant investment from traditional financial institutions [4][6] - The narrative around Bitcoin is evolving from being merely a "digital gold" to a "systemic insurance" against financial instability [7][9] - The XBIT decentralized exchange is positioned to facilitate this capital flow, offering features like instant trading and compliance access for traditional financial participants [9]

Core Insights - Yiwu International Trade City is the world's largest small commodity distribution center, attracting over 560,000 foreign buyers annually and exporting to 233 countries and regions [1] - There are rumors that over 3,000 merchants in Yiwu are using stablecoins like USDT for payments, with monthly transaction volumes exceeding $10 billion, although many merchants remain unfamiliar with stablecoins [1][2] - Stablecoins are digital assets pegged to fiat currencies, offering advantages in cross-border payments, with transaction times reduced to about 2 minutes compared to traditional wire transfers that take 2-3 business days [1] - The on-chain stablecoin transaction volume in Yiwu is estimated to exceed $10 billion in 2023, indicating significant potential for application in specific trade scenarios [1] Merchant Adoption - Despite limited awareness, some merchants are beginning to accept stablecoin payments, often converting them to fiat through intermediaries, incurring exchange costs of about 3%-5% [2] - Traditional settlement methods remain dominant, influenced by export tax rebate policies, with Yiwu's total export tax rebates reaching 12.071 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 14.78% [2] - Concerns about compliance and potential anti-money laundering scrutiny are prevalent among merchants regarding stablecoin usage [2] Regulatory and Market Infrastructure - Zhejiang China Commodity City Group has expressed interest in the regulatory framework for stablecoins in Hong Kong and plans to apply for a license once regulations are clarified [2] - The success of stablecoins in Yiwu's traditional small commodity trade ecosystem depends on covering exchange costs and compliance risks, as well as the improvement of regulatory frameworks and market infrastructure [3]

Summary of Conference Call on Stablecoins Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the **stablecoin** industry, particularly focusing on **USD stablecoins** and their implications in the global financial system [2][4][6]. Key Points and Arguments Definition and Characteristics of Stablecoins - Stablecoins are private currencies pegged to fiat currencies, primarily designed to maintain stable value [6]. - USD stablecoins, such as USDT and USDC, account for over **90%** of the total stablecoin market capitalization [6]. - The operational model of stablecoins resembles that of **narrow banking**, where they hold low-risk, high-liquidity assets to ensure redemption [12]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The supply of stablecoins is highly elastic and primarily driven by demand, as they do not pay interest [22]. - The market capitalization of USD stablecoins surged from several billion in 2020 to over **$220 billion** by Q1 2025, representing **99.8%** of fiat-pegged stablecoins [23]. Economic Implications - Stablecoins offer lower transaction costs, particularly in **cross-border payments**, compared to traditional banking systems [17][20]. - The demand for stablecoins is influenced by factors such as the need for liquidity in high-inflation economies and the convenience they provide in crypto trading [26][29]. Regulatory Landscape - The U.S. government, under the Trump administration, has shown interest in promoting USD stablecoins while opposing central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) [4]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) is exploring the introduction of a digital euro to counter the rise of stablecoins [4]. - Hong Kong has passed regulations allowing licensed institutions to issue fiat-pegged stablecoins, indicating a growing regulatory framework [4]. Risks and Challenges - Stablecoins face inherent risks, including potential loss of peg and lack of regulatory oversight compared to traditional banking systems [36][37]. - The reliance on private institutions for issuing stablecoins raises concerns about their safety and stability, especially during market volatility [36][39]. Future Prospects - The growth potential of stablecoins is closely tied to the status of the USD as the world's primary reserve currency [31]. - Stablecoins may enhance the dollar's international role, but they also pose challenges to monetary policy and financial stability in other countries [35][49]. - The development of a robust regulatory framework is essential to balance innovation with the need for financial stability and consumer protection [47][48]. Strategic Recommendations - China should leverage its digital payment platforms like WeChat Pay and Alipay to enhance cross-border payment capabilities, utilizing the strengths of its large economy [49][50]. - Hong Kong could serve as a testing ground for RMB stablecoins, balancing innovation with regulatory oversight [50]. Other Important Insights - The discussion highlights the dual nature of stablecoins as both a technological innovation and a financial instrument, with implications for monetary policy and international finance [8][10]. - The potential for stablecoins to facilitate underground economic activities and regulatory arbitrage raises significant concerns for global financial stability [27][32]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call regarding the evolving landscape of stablecoins and their implications for the global economy and regulatory frameworks.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of Trump's push for a legal stablecoin plan, suggesting it may undermine the Federal Reserve and shift the currency issuance power to private enterprises closely linked to Trump's family [2][5][12]. Group 1: Legalization of Stablecoins - Trump's team is promoting a legal stablecoin plan as part of the economic strategy for the 2024 campaign, aiming to integrate it into the dollar system [2][4]. - The stablecoins currently in circulation are primarily dollar-pegged, but this is seen as a facade, as they are actually backed by U.S. Treasury bonds, which rely on the Federal Reserve's credit [5][7]. Group 2: Implications for the Dollar System - The move to legalize stablecoins is perceived as a way to transfer the dollar's currency issuance authority from the Federal Reserve to private companies, many of which have ties to Trump's family [5][12]. - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with annual interest payments exceeding $1 trillion, raising concerns about the sustainability of the dollar-backed stablecoins [7][10]. Group 3: Global Financial Dynamics - The article draws parallels between the current U.S. situation and historical instances in China, suggesting that the U.S. is attempting to create a new financial order while other countries, particularly China, are distancing themselves from the dollar system [10][12]. - China's reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings from $1.3 trillion to under $700 billion indicates a significant shift away from reliance on the dollar [10]. Group 4: Future of Stablecoins - There is speculation that stablecoins may eventually detach from the dollar and anchor to other assets, leading to a shift in global financial dynamics from rule-based to trust-based systems [12][14]. - The emergence of cryptocurrency companies linked to Trump's camp suggests a potential privatization of the global financial order, raising questions about the trustworthiness of such initiatives [12][14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of stablecoins, particularly USDT and USDC, as significant players in the global financial system, potentially acting as a "shadow Federal Reserve" that influences global interest rates and maintains the dollar's dominance [1][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Circle Internet Group, the issuer of USDC, went public on June 5, raising $1.1 billion with an initial share price of $31, which surged by 168% on the first day. However, a significant sell-off by executives led to an 8% drop in stock price shortly after [2]. - Major payment companies like Visa and Mastercard are accelerating their integration of stablecoin settlements, while Walmart is testing enterprise stablecoins to validate their commercial viability [3]. Group 2: Impact on Financial Markets - Stablecoins are becoming crucial players in the U.S. Treasury market, with projections indicating that they will purchase $40 billion in short-term U.S. Treasuries in 2024, comparable to large money market funds [6]. - The influx of $3.5 billion in stablecoins can lead to a decrease in 3-month U.S. Treasury yields by 2-2.5 basis points, while an equivalent outflow can increase yields by 6-8 basis points [6]. Group 3: Regulatory and Economic Implications - The concentration of stablecoin reserves poses risks, such as potential runs on the currency, which could significantly impact U.S. Treasury yields and overall market stability [7]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised concerns that unregulated stablecoins could bypass capital flow controls and complicate central banks' macroeconomic management [11]. Group 4: Global Trends and Future Outlook - The global stablecoin market is projected to exceed $250 billion, with USDT and USDC accounting for over 85% of this market, indicating a shift from being mere digital dollar substitutes to becoming on-chain safe-haven and settlement assets [10]. - The U.S. government's new cryptocurrency policy framework aims to support innovation while maintaining the dominance of U.S. dollar stablecoins and issuers [12]. - Countries like the UK, Australia, and South Korea are moving towards developing stablecoin regulations, indicating a shift from whether to develop stablecoins to how to do so [13].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [3][22]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the successful listing of Circle, marking it as the first public stablecoin company, with its stock price increasing nearly 2.5 times since its IPO, leading to a market capitalization of approximately $23.8 billion [6][7]. - The stablecoin market has seen explosive growth, with its total size increasing from $20 billion in 2020 to $246 billion by May 2025, alongside a 598% increase in trading volume [6][7]. - The report emphasizes three main growth themes: Blockchain + Fintech, New Energy + RWA (Real World Assets), and Cross-Border Payments [6][7]. Summary by Sections Recommended Companies - Key recommendations include companies such as Xinjie Electric, Beite Technology, Hanwei Technology, Zhaowei Electromechanical, Hengli Hydraulic, and Nuwei Co., Ltd. [4]. Industry Focus: Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot industry is expected to see a cumulative demand of approximately 2 million units by 2030, currently in a critical breakthrough phase [5][6]. - The report suggests focusing on Tier 1 and core component suppliers within this sector [6]. Industry Focus: Photovoltaic Equipment - The penetration rate of N-type photovoltaic technology is accelerating, enhancing the competitiveness of leading companies [17]. - The report recommends companies like Maiwei Co. and Jiejia Weichuang for their technological innovations and customer bases [17]. Industry Focus: Energy Storage - Energy storage is essential for building a new type of power grid, with favorable policies boosting industry growth [17]. - Leading companies in battery, inverter, and integration segments are highlighted as key investment opportunities [17]. Industry Focus: Semiconductor Equipment - The semiconductor equipment market is projected to reach $140 billion by 2030, with a growing share from mainland China [17]. - The report suggests focusing on platform companies and domestic replacements that are expected to break through quickly [17]. Industry Focus: Automation - The market for industrial consumables is around $40 billion, expected to reach $55.7 billion by 2026, with leading companies benefiting from increased concentration and import substitution [17][18]. Industry Focus: Hydrogen Energy - Green hydrogen aligns with carbon neutrality goals, with rapid development in photovoltaic and wind energy laying the foundation for hydrogen production [17]. Industry Focus: Engineering Machinery - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with product, scale, and cost advantages in the engineering machinery sector [17][18].