行业报告 | 行业专题研究 石油石化 证券研究报告 中石化 ROE 提升来自哪些方面？ 2） 成品油消费税改革或加速推进：2025 年初发布《关于推动成品油流通 高质量发展的意见》，二十届三中全会也明确提出"推进消费税征收环节后 移并稳步下划地方"，或加速不合规地炼成品油出清。 3） 高油价等不利因素消除：后续原油供给偏宽松，油价或在美国页岩油 盈亏平衡点附近震荡，根据油价弹性测算可见，Brent 油价为 60-80 美金区 间或是中石化的业绩舒适区。 风险提示：1） 政策不及预期风险；2）行业竞争加剧风险；3）需求不及 预期风险；4）原料大幅波动风险。 中石化 ROE 边际改善或已出现积极信号，主要来自以下三方面： 1） 政策红利或扭转化工"内卷"局面：石化行业"反内卷"政策频繁出 台，推动行业着力调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能，化工品格局或改善。 2025 年 08 月 03 日 | 投资评级 | | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 | 强于大市(维持评级) | | 上次评级 | 强于大市 | SAC 执业证书编号：S1110524090002 jiangmeidan@tfzq.com 行业走势图 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to falling international oil prices and increased competition in the oil and petrochemical markets [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For 2025H1, the company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 201-216 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 39.5% to 43.7% [1]. - In Q2 2025, the projected net profit is between 68-83 billion yuan, down 52.1% to 60.7% year-on-year, and a decline of 37.2% to 48.5% compared to Q1 2025's net profit of 133 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Production and Operational Data - In 2025H1, the total oil and gas equivalent production reached 263 million barrels, a 2% increase year-on-year, with oil production at 140 million barrels (down 0.3%) and natural gas production at 208 billion cubic meters (up 5.1%) [2]. - The company processed 120 million tons of crude oil in H1 2025, a decrease of 5.3% year-on-year, with gasoline and diesel production also declining [2]. - Ethylene production increased by 16.4% year-on-year to 7.56 million tons, while synthetic resin production rose by 12.8% to 11.04 million tons [2]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Regulations - The government is implementing a nationwide crackdown on illegal gas stations and enhancing regulation of fuel consumption taxes, which is expected to increase industry concentration [3]. - The reform of fuel consumption taxes will create a more equitable competitive environment for legitimate businesses, potentially benefiting state-owned oil companies with better supply chains and sales networks [3]. Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 502, 604, and 723 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting the negative impact of declining oil prices [4]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios for A shares are projected at 14.5, 12.1, and 10.1 times, while for H shares, they are 10.1, 8.4, and 7.0 times [4]. - The company maintains a "buy" rating, anticipating a bottoming out of oil prices and accelerated progress in fuel consumption tax reforms [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A and H shares of Sinopec [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 is expected to be under pressure, with a projected net profit decline of 39.5% to 43.7% year-on-year, primarily due to falling international oil prices and intense market competition [7] - Future benefits are anticipated from the reform of fuel consumption tax and the reduction of internal competition in refined oil products [7] - The report highlights the company's commitment to shareholder returns, projecting a dividend payout ratio of 73% for 2025, resulting in a dividend yield of 5.0% for A shares and 5.8% for H shares after tax [7] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 2,959,498 million RMB, a decrease of 3.74% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 50,172 million RMB for 2025, a slight decrease of 0.28% year-on-year [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to remain at 0.41 RMB for 2025, with a projected increase to 0.60 RMB by 2027 [1] - The report adjusts profit forecasts for 2025-2027, estimating net profits of 502 billion RMB, 604 billion RMB, and 723 billion RMB respectively [7] Operational Data - In H1 2025, the company expects to produce 263 million barrels of oil equivalent, with natural gas contributing to production growth [7] - Oil processing volume is projected to decline by 5.3% year-on-year to 120 million tons in H1 2025 [7] - Domestic refined oil sales are expected to decrease by 3.4% year-on-year, totaling 87 million tons in H1 2025 [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The government is strengthening the enforcement of refined oil consumption tax collection and continuing to promote the reform of refined oil consumption tax, which is expected to increase the concentration of the refining and sales industries. Legal enterprises will face a fairer competitive environment, while illegal enterprises may be gradually eliminated [4][68][71]. - The reform of refined oil consumption tax will bring more intense market competition, forcing refineries and gas stations to improve service quality and operational efficiency. In the long term, this will contribute to the healthy development of the entire industry, improve resource allocation efficiency, and ultimately benefit consumers [71]. - Relevant investment targets include Sinopec/China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (600028.SH/0386.HK) and PetroChina/China National Petroleum Corporation (601857.SH/0857.HK) [8][71]. Summary by Directory 1. Refined Oil Consumption Tax Basic Situation 1.1 Summary Points of Refined Oil Consumption Tax - Consumption tax is an important tax in China's current tax system, aiming to regulate product structure, guide consumption direction, and ensure national fiscal revenue. China has been levying consumption tax on gasoline and diesel at the production stage since 1994 [11]. - The 2024 consumption tax reform aims to shift the collection link to the sales end and gradually transfer it to local governments, which is expected to accelerate the exit of backward refinery capacities and benefit state - owned refineries. However, there are difficulties in implementing this policy, such as affecting the profits of gas stations and increasing the requirements for national tax collection and management [11]. 1.2 Policy Innovations of Refined Oil Consumption Tax (2012 - 2024) - **2012 - 2013**: The State Administration of Taxation issued documents to strictly define the scope of refined oil consumption tax collection to prevent tax evasion by refineries through "name - changing sales". However, due to various reasons, the implementation effect was not obvious [14][17][18]. - **2018**: The State Administration of Taxation issued Document No. 1, which required all refined oil invoices to be issued through the refined oil invoice issuance module in the new VAT invoice management system. This policy forced some backward refinery capacities and illegal blending capacities to be eliminated [20][21][24]. - **2021**: The Ministry of Finance, the General Administration of Customs, and the State Administration of Taxation jointly issued an announcement to levy import - link consumption tax on some refined oil products, expanding the scope of refined oil consumption tax collection [33][34]. - **2023**: The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation jointly issued an announcement to adjust the scope of refined oil consumption tax collection [36][37]. - **2024**: The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed to shift the refined oil consumption tax collection link to the sales end and gradually transfer it to local governments. However, there are implementation difficulties, such as affecting gas station profits and increasing tax collection and management challenges [38]. 1.3 China's Refining Capacity Situation - In 2024, China's total refining capacity was about 955 million tons, showing a pattern of three major forces: central state - owned enterprises, other state - owned enterprises, and private refineries [39]. - After the implementation of the 2018 consumption tax new policy, the operating rate of Shandong local refineries decreased, and the gasoline price increased. Some high - cost refineries were forced to shut down, while some high - quality refineries turned to formal sales channels [40][41]. - Shandong plans to integrate and transfer the refining capacities of local refineries below 300 - 500 million tons by 2022 - 2025 and build large - scale refining integration projects [55]. 1.4 China's Gas Station Situation - In 2023, there were about 123,000 gas stations in China, mainly distributed in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Guangdong and other regions. Among them, private gas stations numbered about 64,000, accounting for 52% of the total [58]. - In 2024, China's total refined oil consumption was 390 million tons, of which private gas stations sold about 100 million tons, accounting for 25% of the total consumption. State - owned oil companies' gas stations have higher single - station refueling volume and profitability [58]. 2. Major Event Updates of China's Strengthened Refined Oil Consumption Tax Reform in 2025 2.1 The Tax Evasion Incident of Liaoning Baolai Refinery in 2022 - Some enterprises in Panjin, Liaoning evaded refined oil consumption tax by changing the names of taxable refined oil products to non - taxable chemical products. The relevant enterprises were investigated and punished, and the relevant personnel were transferred to the judicial authorities [61]. 2.2 Increased Enforcement of Refined Oil Consumption Tax in 2025: Announcement of Multiple Tax Evasion Cases - In February 2025, tax authorities in Guangdong, Xinjiang, and Yunnan announced the investigation and punishment of three gas station tax evasion cases, including hiding sales revenue through "cheating modes" and non - compliant payment methods [62]. 2.3 The Tax Evasion Incident of Bohui Co., Ltd. in 2025 - After the tax policy change in June 2023, Bohui Co., Ltd. was required to pay consumption tax on its main product, heavy aromatics. In 2024, it was required to pay back taxes of nearly 500 million yuan. In February 2025, the company's controlling stake changed [64][65]. 2.4 China's Special Rectification Campaign Against Illegal Gas Stations in 2025 - From June to December 2025, China will carry out a special rectification campaign against illegal gas stations across the country to severely crack down on illegal refined oil production and sales [68]. 3. Investment Suggestions - The competition of private refineries with non - standard tax payment in the early stage will intensify. They need to improve production efficiency and reduce costs to enhance market competitiveness [71]. - Private gas stations will face greater challenges and direct competition with state - owned oil company gas stations [71]. - The competitiveness of state - owned oil companies will be enhanced, and their market share is expected to expand [71].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the oil and petrochemical industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the implementation of a special rectification campaign against illegal fuel sales, which is expected to enhance the concentration in the refining and sales sectors [7]. - The National Development and Reform Commission has set a target to limit the national crude oil processing capacity to 1 billion tons by the end of 2025, with over 30% of capacity exceeding energy efficiency benchmarks [2]. - The report notes that as of 2023, there are approximately 123,000 gas stations in China, with private stations accounting for 52% of the total, selling about 25% of the country's refined oil consumption [7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the ongoing reforms in the oil and petrochemical sector, including the tightening of consumption tax regulations and the push for industry standardization and scale [7]. - It mentions that the total refining capacity in China is approximately 955 million tons per year, nearing the regulatory limit [7]. Regulatory Developments - The report outlines the government's plans to enhance fiscal reforms, which include improving local tax management and increasing local financial autonomy [2]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the legal businesses will benefit from a fairer competitive environment due to the crackdown on illegal operations, potentially leading to increased market concentration [7]. - It emphasizes the significant role of private gas stations in the market, highlighting their contribution to overall fuel sales [7].

Core Viewpoint - The expansion of the consumption tax on refined oil products has led to significant tax liabilities for companies, highlighting the need for clarity on which products fall under the tax scope to mitigate tax risks [1][2]. Group 1: Tax Incidents - Two listed companies, Chengzhi Co., Ltd. and Ningbo Bohui Chemical Technology Co., Ltd., have faced substantial tax payments exceeding 100 million yuan due to the recent expansion of the consumption tax scope [1]. - Chengzhi's subsidiary was required to pay approximately 166 million yuan in consumption tax and related penalties, while Bohui reported a total of about 479 million yuan in tax payments [1][2]. Group 2: Regulatory Changes - In June 2023, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration issued an announcement that effectively broadened the consumption tax scope for refined oil products, including mixed aromatics and heavy aromatics [2]. - The announcement aims to enhance tax management and promote the healthy development of the refined oil industry, with different tax rates applied to various oil products [2]. Group 3: Disputes and Clarifications - There are disputes between companies and tax authorities regarding whether certain products fall under the consumption tax scope, as seen in Bohui's case where the tax authority classified its heavy aromatic derivatives as taxable [3][4]. - The complexity arises from the diverse nature of chemical products and the potential for tax evasion through product name changes [4]. Group 4: Risk Mitigation Strategies - Companies are advised to assess their products against national and industry standards to determine tax obligations, as outlined by the State Taxation Administration [5]. - The administration has also introduced a temporary management method for testing taxable refined oil products to standardize the detection process and resolve disputes [6]. Group 5: Future Tax Reforms - The government plans to accelerate the reform of the consumption tax system, potentially moving the tax collection process to local levels, which could alleviate financial pressure on production enterprises [6][9]. - Experts suggest that moving the tax collection process could improve local government engagement in tax management, although it may also increase the administrative burden on tax authorities due to a larger number of taxpayers [9].

Market Overview - Southbound funds recorded a net sell of HKD 18.528 billion in Hong Kong stocks on May 12, marking the highest single-day net sell since February 24, 2021, and the second-largest in history [1] - The net sell of Tencent Holdings reached HKD 36.65 billion, while Xiaomi Group saw a net sell of HKD 21.16 billion [2] Company-Specific Insights - BYD Electronics experienced a net buy of HKD 121 million, while China National Offshore Oil Corporation had a net buy of HKD 113 million [2] - Tencent Holdings is expected to report a steady first-quarter performance with a projected revenue growth of 10% year-on-year to HKD 175.3 billion, driven by growth in gaming and advertising sectors [5] - Xiaomi Group faced challenges with its SU7 Ultra model, leading to a wave of returns due to issues with the carbon fiber hood not enhancing performance as claimed [6] - XPeng Motors announced a significant milestone with its flying car division, XPeng Huitian, as it received acceptance for its production license application from the Civil Aviation Administration [6] Investment Recommendations - Analysts suggest focusing on high-growth and high-dividend companies in the oil sector, particularly the "three barrels of oil," due to favorable market conditions and potential tax reforms in refined oil consumption [5] - The overall sentiment in the consumer electronics sector is improving, with expectations of valuation recovery if tariff policies do not deteriorate further [5]

Group 1: Oil Demand and Supply Dynamics - Short-term growth in oil demand is expected to continue, but peak demand will take time to reach. The U.S. tariffs on other countries will impact global trade and oil demand. Long-term forecasts indicate that overseas oil demand peak will be delayed, while China's oil demand peak is anticipated to be reached earlier [2][6][9] - The supply of oil has been disrupted, and OPEC+'s role in supporting oil prices through production cuts is weakening. International oil companies are refocusing on traditional energy due to a slowdown in energy transition, and production increases through new exploration are challenging [2][55][63] - Short-term supply disruptions are unlikely to alter the long-term trend of stable high oil prices. Increased global oil supply due to OPEC+ decisions is expected, but rising production costs will provide a support line for oil prices [2][3][55] Group 2: Investment Opportunities in the Oil Sector - Investment direction 1 focuses on high profitability and high dividends, particularly in major Chinese oil companies like PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC, which are expected to benefit from the reform of fuel consumption taxes [3][83] - Investment direction 2 highlights the narrowing supply and improving demand in the polyester filament sector, with recommendations for leading companies such as Tongkun Co., New Fengming, and Hengyi Petrochemical [3][114] - Investment direction 3 emphasizes low-cost and high-growth companies in the chemical sector, recommending firms like Satellite Chemical and Baofeng Energy [3][114] Group 3: Key Companies in the Oil Sector - CNOOC is recognized for its low costs and high dividends, with significant capital expenditure driving reserve growth [84] - PetroChina is focused on continuous reserve growth and aims to become a comprehensive energy leader [94] - Sinopec benefits from its integrated advantages, providing resilience against oil price fluctuations [105] Group 4: Refining Industry Framework - The petrochemical industry chain includes upstream, midstream, and downstream segments, with a focus on raw material prices and the impact of oil prices on upstream resource stocks [114][118] - The report identifies key players in the refining sector, including Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengyi Petrochemical, and others, which are expected to benefit from favorable market conditions [119][122]