Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating [3] 2. Core View of the Report The zinc price is running weakly, with downstream consumption gradually weakening. The supply growth is accelerating due to increased production by smelters and the release of new and restarted capacities. The import window is closed, reducing the inflow of imported zinc. The domestic social inventory is stable, while the overseas inventory continues to decline. Technically, the short - selling pressure is weakening with reduced positions. It is recommended to wait and see [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,240 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is 95 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3] - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,710 dollars/ton, up 29.5 dollars; the total Shanghai zinc open interest is 264,399 lots, up 4,519 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 16,294 lots, up 3,065 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 6,473 tons, down 696 tons [3] - The SHFE inventory is 42,864 tons, down 2,602 tons; the LME inventory is 122,875 tons, down 575 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,260 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,450 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [3] - The basis of the main ZN contract is 20 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan; the LME zinc cash - 3 months spread is - 17.39 dollars/ton, up 2.78 dollars [3] - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,150 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, an improvement of 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, an improvement of 10,400 tons [3] - The global zinc mine production is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 583,000 tons, up 7,000 tons [3] - The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] 3.4产业情况 - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons [3] - The zinc social inventory is 58,400 tons, down 2,200 tons [3] 3.5下游情况 - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons [3] - The new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters; the housing completion area is 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters [3] - The automobile production is 2.642 million vehicles, up 38,000 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 14.73%, up 12.85 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 14.69%, up 10.48 percentage points [3] - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.1%, up 0.07 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 17.23%, up 0.13 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - Fed Chairman Powell said the economic situation is highly uncertain, and decisions should be based on actual data. The US economy outperforms others, so interest rates may be higher, and the Fed will resume rate cuts at some point [3] - IMF Deputy Managing Director Li Bo said the development of stablecoins has both opportunities and challenges, and global consensus on effective regulation is needed [3] - Vice - Premier He Lifeng pointed out the need to expand domestic demand, boost consumption, and build a new real - estate development model [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Soda Ash**: Supply is expected to remain ample, demand will contract, and prices will continue to face pressure. The basis of soda ash started to converge this week, and basis convergence trading may continue. Futures are expected to decline at a slower pace. It is recommended to go short on the main soda ash contract [2]. - **Glass**: In the short - term, it is recommended to go long on dips, while in the medium - to long - term, the idea of going short on rallies should be maintained. The supply shows little change, and demand is expected to weaken further. The subsequent market trading is more about policy expectations, and the expected rebound height and strength will be limited [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Soda Ash**: The closing price of the main contract is 1180 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan from the previous period. The open interest of the main contract is 1,529,195 lots, down 32,209 lots. The net position of the top 20 is - 248,998 lots, up 58,828 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts are 3,693 tons, down 5 tons. The spread between the September and January contracts is 7 yuan, unchanged. The basis is 31 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. - **Glass**: The closing price of the main contract is 1016 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan from the previous period. The open interest of the main contract is 1,435,796 lots, down 9,579 lots. The net position of the top 20 is - 238,048 lots, up 7,865 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts are 877 tons, unchanged. The spread between the September and January contracts is - 49 yuan, up 2 yuan. The basis is 39 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - **Soda Ash**: The price of North China heavy soda ash is 1197 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash is 1325 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; East China light soda ash is 1260 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; Central China light soda ash is 1215 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Glass**: The price of Shahe glass sheets is 1056 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass sheets is 1070 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - **Soda Ash**: The operating rate of soda ash plants is 86.46%, up 1.56 percentage points. The inventory of soda ash enterprises is 175.59 tons, up 2.92 tons [2]. - **Glass**: The operating rate of float glass enterprises is 75.34%, down 0.08 percentage points. The in - production capacity is 15.54 million tons/year, down 0.02 million tons. The number of in - production production lines is 223, down 1. The inventory of glass enterprises is 69,887,000 weight boxes, up 202,000 weight boxes [2]. 下游情况 - The cumulative value of newly started area in the real estate sector is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters. The cumulative value of completed area is 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters [2]. Industry News - Li Qiang attended the Business Community Representatives' Symposium at the 2025 Summer Davos Forum. - The Iranian Defense Minister arrived in China to participate in the SCO Defense Ministers' Meeting. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority bought HK$9.42 billion in the market as the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate hit the weak - side convertibility undertaking. - XPeng Motors stated that the overseas market is tightening the import of zero - kilometer used cars, and XPeng does not adopt this export model. - He Lifeng pointed out during an inspection in Hebei that it is necessary to actively expand domestic demand and boost consumption to better promote high - quality economic development. - The first pension - themed corporate bond in China was successfully issued on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. - The third - batch funds for the replacement of consumer goods with new ones will be allocated in July [2].

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq rising by 0.31%, while the Dow Jones fell by 0.25% [5] - Nvidia's stock surged over 4%, reaching a new high with a market capitalization of $3.77 trillion, making it the highest-valued company globally [5] - The Federal Reserve proposed reforms to relax capital rules for large banks, reducing the capital requirement for holding companies from 5% to a range of 3.5% to 4.5% [5] Group 2 - International gold prices increased, with spot gold rising by 0.28% to $3332.10 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures up by 0.37% to $3346.40 per ounce [5] - International oil prices experienced slight fluctuations, with WTI crude oil rising by 0.89% to $64.94 per barrel, and Brent crude oil increasing by 0.36% to $66.41 per barrel [6] Group 3 - BYD signed a cooperation agreement with Austrian steel manufacturer voestalpine to supply steel for its Hungary passenger car factory [18] - Xiaomi's first SUV, the YU7, is set to be officially launched on June 26, with various versions and specifications announced by CEO Lei Jun [20] - Alibaba Cloud and Alipay launched an "AI tipping" feature, allowing users to tip AI developers through a new payment button [21] Group 4 - China Post and China Electronics Technology Group signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement to focus on technology innovation in various fields [23] - Vivo officially launched its new foldable smartphone, the X Fold5, starting at a price of 6999 yuan, aiming to capture the foldable phone market [24] - China Aviation Engine Group delivered two AEP100 engines to support the first flight of a large cargo drone [25] Group 5 - BlueFocus submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, indicating rapid company growth and market interest [26] - AIA Life appointed Yu Hong as the new general manager, bringing extensive experience from his previous role at Ping An Life [28] - Mercedes-Benz announced plans to produce a new pure electric MPV in Fujian, China, starting in 2025, to enhance its local product lineup [29]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government emphasizes the need to enhance domestic demand and consumption, while building a unified national market to strengthen development momentum [1] Group 1: Economic Strategy - The current task of advancing high-quality development and modernizing China is described as extremely challenging due to a complex external environment [1] - There is a call for improving situational awareness and precision in policy-making to adapt to new requirements for production capacity and domestic circulation [1] Group 2: Policy Focus - Key areas of focus include expanding domestic demand, boosting consumption, constructing a unified national market, and optimizing the business environment [1] - The government aims to enhance collaboration among departments and emphasize coordinated efforts to strengthen development momentum through policy and operational synergy [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail industry [4] Core Viewpoints - In April, China's total retail sales reached 3.72 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, indicating a slight decrease in growth rate compared to the previous month [1] - The retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles amounted to 3.35 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6% year-on-year, reflecting the resilience of China's industrial supply chain and the vast potential of the domestic market [1] - E-commerce penetration is slowing, while offline convenience stores and specialty stores are performing well, with retail sales growth of 9.1% for convenience stores and 6.4% for specialty stores in the first four months [2] - The consumption upgrade policy is showing effects, particularly in the gold and jewelry sector, which saw a significant year-on-year increase of 25.3% in April [3] Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - In April, the retail sales of essential goods such as grain and oil increased by 14.0%, while optional consumption categories showed mixed results, with home appliances and furniture growing by 38.8% and 26.9% respectively [3][17] - The overall retail sales growth for April was 5.1%, with a slight decline in growth rate compared to March [15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: 1. The recovery of gold and jewelry sales driven by the Spring Festival effect and geopolitical risks increasing demand for safe-haven assets, with companies like Lao Feng Xiang and Zhou Da Sheng recommended for attention [4] 2. The gradual recovery of offline sales as domestic consumption policies take effect, with traditional supermarkets undergoing reforms, recommending companies like Gao Xin Retail and Yonghui Supermarket [4] 3. The optimization of competition in the e-commerce sector, with a focus on major platforms like Pinduoduo and Alibaba [4]