6 证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 12 月 8 日 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 第一创业证券研究所 一、产业综合组： 国家金融监督管理总局于上周末下调保险公司相关业务风险因子，包括持仓时间 超过三年的沪深 300 指数成分股、中证红利低波动 100 指数成分股的风险因子从 0.3 下调至 0.27，保险公司持仓时间超过两年的科创板上市普通股的风险因子从 0.4 下调至 0.36。该持仓时间根据过去四年加权平均持仓时间确定。结合周末发 布的《基金管理公司绩效考核管理指引》征求意见稿，我们看好沪深 300、红利 和今年一直滞涨的券商等行业的投资机会。 马斯克周末在社交平台 X 上披露了每年向太空发射 100 万吨 AI 卫星的讨论，由于 涉及的发射次数和卫星规模庞大，而且预示了商业卫星应用的新领域，我们认为 这可能大幅提升国内投资者对未来几年商业航天发展空间的预期。马斯克表示， 在地球上已经很难找到简单的电力来源。100 万吨/年的卫星，每颗卫星 100 千瓦， 每年增加 100 吉瓦的人工智能，没有运营或维护成本，通过高带宽激光连接到 Starlink 星座，相当于要每天发射 2 ...

Group 1 - Tencent's agency game "ARC Raiders" has achieved a peak of 354,000 concurrent users on Steam, ranking among the top 5 in 24-hour peak concurrent users, indicating its potential as a significant game release in the second half of 2025 [1] - The "search and rescue" genre is becoming a golden path in the gaming industry due to its long lifecycle and high profit margins, with "ARC Raiders" validating Tencent's judgment in game categories [1] - Tencent's dual strategy of self-developed and agency games, with "ARC Raiders" and its own game "Project: Eclipse" both in the market, is expected to boost investor confidence in its shooting game segment, potentially catalyzing stock price growth [1] Group 2 - Tencent has launched a new round of testing for its game "Project: Eclipse," which combines supernatural themes with "search and rescue" gameplay, focusing on resource collection, enemy confrontation, and strategic evacuation [2] - The combination of supernatural themes and "search and rescue" gameplay aligns with players' desires for immersive and high-risk experiences, potentially avoiding competition through differentiation [2] - If "Project: Eclipse" can establish a differentiated advantage post-testing, it may replicate the success of "Delta Force," becoming a new growth driver for Tencent's performance and stock price [2] Group 3 - Chuangmeng Tiandi announced that its agency game "Chong Chong Qi Bing" will begin a limited-time paid testing phase on November 12, lasting until November 21, offering a blend of strategy and card development gameplay [3] - This testing phase is a preliminary step before the official launch, with limited immediate impact on stock prices; however, key metrics such as user retention, payment conversion rates, and player feedback will be critical for future performance [3] - Positive performance during the testing phase could lay the groundwork for "Chong Chong Qi Bing" to drive revenue post-launch, serving as a potential catalyst for the company's stock [3]

Core Insights - The game "Escape from Duckov" was released on October 16 and quickly reached the second spot on the Steam bestseller list, selling over 500,000 copies within three days and achieving a peak concurrent player count of over 140,000 [1][3]. Game Characteristics - Developed by a small team of five, "Escape from Duckov" stands out in the popular "looter shooter" genre as a PvE (Player vs Environment) game, contrasting with the more common PvP (Player vs Player) format [3][5]. - The game is designed to provide a unique experience that blends elements of both "looter shooters" and "action RPGs," focusing on resource gathering and character progression rather than competitive combat [5][6]. Gameplay Mechanics - The game features a cone-shaped visibility range that changes with day and night cycles, enhancing the tension of resource gathering even in a PvE context [8][10]. - Players can engage in both searching for items and combat, with a focus on the thrill of risk and reward inherent in the looter shooter genre [10][12]. - The game includes a task-driven system that allows players to unlock new items, maps, and character classes, while also enabling the construction and upgrading of a base [13][14]. Player Engagement - The game caters primarily to "runner" players who prefer to gather resources while avoiding combat, although combat still plays a significant role in enhancing the value of collected items [16][18]. - The absence of PvP does not diminish the core enjoyment of risk and reward, as the game still provides a satisfying experience for players seeking to accumulate resources [18][19]. Market Implications - "Escape from Duckov" may offer insights into the competitive "looter shooter" market, suggesting that PvE could be a viable direction for future developments in the genre [21].

Core Insights - Bilibili has successfully launched a self-developed game, "Escape from Duckov," which has sold over 500,000 copies on Steam within three days, generating an estimated revenue of over 25 million yuan [1][2] - The game achieved a peak concurrent player count of over 180,000, setting a record for Bilibili's games on the Steam platform [1] - The "search and escape" gameplay style, popularized by "Escape from Tarkov," has seen a surge in popularity, with other companies like Tencent also entering the market [1] Company Development - The development of "Escape from Duckov" began in 2022, initiated by a small team of five, with the lead developer being a deep user of "Escape from Tarkov" [2] - The team initially started with three members to create a game demo, later expanding to five as the project progressed [2] - The game was designed to simplify controls while enhancing core shooting mechanics, addressing the high entry barrier of similar games [2] Market Strategy - Bilibili aims to leverage its unique community ecosystem to support its gaming business, indicating that game distribution can benefit from content creation and community discussions [2] - The decision to focus solely on the PC platform was made after recognizing significant differences in player habits and interests between mobile and PC users [2] - The success of "Escape from Duckov" highlights Bilibili's potential to break through in the gaming sector, complementing its existing community-driven model [2]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent's game "Delta Operation" is facing its largest public relations crisis since its launch, primarily due to a controversial gameplay update that has sparked significant backlash from players [1][2][4]. Summary by Sections Game Performance and Popularity - "Delta Operation" was one of Tencent's most successful games in 2023, achieving a daily active user (DAU) count of over 3 million within a year of its launch [3][39]. - The game was celebrated during its one-year anniversary event, which was attended by many players and received positive feedback [3]. Controversy and Player Backlash - The controversy began with a gameplay update on October 5, which altered the "shared prison" mechanic, leading to widespread player dissatisfaction and calls for a boycott on October 10 [2][11]. - Players expressed their anger through social media, with over 550,000 critical comments following the update announcement [11][12]. Gameplay Mechanics - The core gameplay of "Delta Operation" revolves around the "search, fight, and retreat" mechanic, which allows players to accumulate resources across matches, contrasting with traditional battle royale games [5][6]. - The "shared prison" strategy emerged as a player-driven method to safely gather resources, which was disrupted by the recent update [10][29]. Official Response and Economic Implications - Tencent's official apology on October 8 failed to quell the backlash, as players felt the update undermined the cooperative gameplay that had been promoted [2][30]. - The official reasoning for the update cited concerns over in-game inflation caused by the "shared prison" mechanic, which many players viewed as a deflection from deeper issues within the game's economic design [30][31]. Competitive Landscape - The crisis has opened opportunities for competing games, such as "Dark Zone: Infinite," which have capitalized on the situation by promoting their own gameplay mechanics that emphasize player cooperation [38]. - The ongoing situation highlights the importance of player trust in the long-term success of games, especially for titles with high DAU like "Delta Operation" [41][43].

Core Insights - The article highlights the impressive vitality of the game "Naraka: Bladepoint" during the summer, showcasing its strong long-term operational capabilities and brand vitality, successfully penetrating the broader entertainment user base [1] - The game has redefined the boundaries of "martial arts" through deep reflection on its core, opting for sincere innovation rather than resting on past successes [2] Gameplay Innovation - The introduction of the new "Naraka Bounty Hunter" gameplay represents a conceptual leap, expanding the "close combat survival competition" framework into a highly competitive category for 2025, enhancing gameplay complexity and meeting diverse player needs [3] - The new gameplay incorporates elements of exploration, stealth, and strategy, creating a dynamic microcosm of the martial arts world, and effectively combines popular "search and loot" mechanics with innovative gameplay to enhance playability [3] Content Matrix and Community Engagement - A series of IP collaborations, such as with "Mo Dao Zu Shi," enriches the game world, resonating with fans and drawing in audiences from various backgrounds [5] - The collaboration with "Tomb Raider" not only features character storylines but also includes contributions from well-known creators, further expanding the game's reach [7] - The game integrates cultural elements by collaborating with the Shanghai Museum, allowing players to interact with historical artifacts, thus embedding cultural history into the gaming experience [9] Character and Mechanic Development - The introduction of the new hero, Wan Jun, enriches the character system and maintains gameplay diversity and balance, while also inspiring community-driven content creation [11] Platform Strategy and User Engagement - The game leverages Douyin (TikTok) to reach a broader audience, utilizing engaging short video content to effectively communicate new features and collaborations, achieving over 250 million views on the Naraka4thAnniversary topic [12] Conclusion - The four-year journey of "Naraka: Bladepoint" reflects a mature brand's continuous self-reflection and evolution, demonstrating that a quality game can combat the passage of time through sustained and deep content innovation [13]

Core Viewpoint - Tencent's Q2 financial report exceeded expectations, highlighting the success of the game "Delta Operation" which has rapidly gained popularity in the gaming market [1][3]. Group 1: Game Performance and Market Potential - "Delta Operation" achieved 12 million daily active users (DAU) in April and surpassed 20 million DAU in July, ranking among the top five in the domestic gaming industry [1]. - The game has become Tencent's new "cash cow" within just 10 months, raising questions about its potential ceiling [1]. - The success of "Delta Operation" is attributed to the resurgence of the shooting game genre, which has been underexplored in the Chinese market despite its popularity in the West [3][6]. Group 2: Game Design and Mechanics - "Delta Operation" features three main gameplay modes, with "Search, Fight, and Retreat" being the most popular, emphasizing high-risk, high-reward gameplay [18][20]. - The game incorporates a unique mechanic where players can lose their equipment upon death, enhancing the tension and excitement of gameplay [23]. - The integration of in-game and out-of-game systems, such as the use of "Havf Coins" for purchasing equipment, creates a dynamic balance in player decision-making [26][28]. Group 3: Social and Marketing Strategy - Tencent aims to position "Delta Operation" as a social phenomenon, similar to "Honor of Kings," by leveraging its strong operational capabilities [31][33]. - The game has gained traction among younger audiences, becoming a new form of social capital among players [33][34]. - Tencent's marketing strategies include offline events, celebrity endorsements, and viral content on social media platforms, contributing to the game's rapid spread beyond traditional gaming circles [33].

Core Insights - The domestic shooting game market is experiencing significant growth from late 2024 to 2025, with Tencent's products like "Delta Action" achieving 20 million DAU within a year, and "Peace Elite" seeing over 30% year-on-year growth in Q2 2025 [1][11][12] - The emergence of the "search, fight, and retreat" gameplay has contributed to this boom, alongside the rapid iteration of "hero shooter" products and the IP development of battle royale games [4][10][19] Industry Trends - The shooting game genre has historically been popular due to its broad audience and rapid adoption of new technologies and gameplay innovations [3][19] - The "search, fight, and retreat" gameplay, which has matured over the past year, is a key factor in the current market prosperity, with many companies launching projects in this category [4][10] Gameplay Evolution - The "search, fight, and retreat" gameplay originated from the 2016 game "Escape from Tarkov," which, despite its complexity, laid the groundwork for this genre [5][7] - The success of "PUBG" in 2017 helped popularize elements of this gameplay, making it more accessible to a wider audience [9][10] Market Dynamics - Major companies like Tencent and NetEase are leading the charge in the "search, fight, and retreat" segment, with Tencent's "Delta Action" achieving significant milestones in DAU and revenue [11][12] - The high entry barriers in the shooting game market mean that only large and mid-sized companies can afford to invest in this genre, limiting competition [12][19] Future Directions - The FPS genre is expected to evolve, with potential shifts towards PvE experiences and narrative-driven gameplay, as the current "search, fight, and retreat" trend may reach its peak [20][22] - The industry is exploring the integration of "search, fight, and retreat" mechanics into various game types, indicating a broader influence on game design [17][19] Financial Insights - In the first half of 2025, shooting games accounted for 6% of the top 100 mobile games by revenue, but contributed 17.03% of total revenue, highlighting the significant financial impact of a few successful titles [27]

Core Insights - The article discusses the upcoming game "Mechanical Awakening," which is set to be a significant player in the SOC (Survival Open World Construction) and "search, fight, and retreat" genres in 2025 [1][2]. Game Overview - "Mechanical Awakening" is developed using the UE5 engine and features a non-linear survival gameplay that combines free construction and competitive combat [1][5]. - The game is set in a post-apocalyptic world where AI has gone rogue, leading to a war between humans and mechanical beasts, resulting in a drastic reduction in population and resources [3]. Gameplay Mechanics - The game integrates "search, fight, and retreat" mechanics with a dual-world structure, allowing players to experience high-risk combat in specific zones while maintaining a secure personal base [7]. - Players can build temporary shelters, gather survival resources, and either cooperate or compete with other players to achieve safe extraction [3][11]. Unique Features - The game introduces a mechanical beast system, where these creatures serve various functions such as transportation, combat assistance, resource gathering, and base defense, enhancing the strategic depth of gameplay [12][16]. - A diverse weapon system with unique auxiliary skills adds complexity to combat, allowing for various tactical approaches [16]. Market Context - The SOC genre has not yet seen a blockbuster title in the domestic market, but games like "Ark: Survival Evolved" and "Palworld" have proven the genre's popularity on platforms like Steam [18]. - Major companies like Tencent and NetEase are actively investing in this genre, with Tencent launching titles like "Rust" mobile and NetEase establishing an early advantage with games like "LifeAfter" [18][20]. - Hero Game's "Mechanical Awakening" aims to differentiate itself in a competitive landscape by blending SOC and "search, fight, and retreat" gameplay to attract hardcore players [22].

Core Insights - Tencent's new game "Delta Action" has quickly become a phenomenon within a year of its launch, contributing significantly to the company's gaming revenue growth [1][5][17] Financial Performance - Tencent reported a 15% year-on-year revenue increase to 184.5 billion yuan in Q2 2025, surpassing market expectations of 178.94 billion yuan [1] - Operating profit (Non-IFRS) rose by 18% to 69.25 billion yuan [1] - Domestic game revenue reached 40.4 billion yuan, up 17% year-on-year, while international game revenue grew by 35% to 18.8 billion yuan [1] Game Performance - "Delta Action" achieved an average daily active user (DAU) count of over 20 million by July, ranking among the top five in the industry for DAU and top three for revenue [5][16] - The game has shown a remarkable 66% increase in DAU within just three months, indicating strong user engagement [5] Market Trends - The success of "Delta Action" reflects a broader trend of rising interest in shooting games within the Chinese market, which is experiencing rapid growth [17][18] - Tencent's executives noted that the Chinese shooting game market is diversifying, with various game modes and styles coexisting without cannibalizing each other [19] Competitive Landscape - Other major companies, including NetEase and various independent studios, are also entering the "looting and extraction" game genre, indicating a competitive environment [15][16] - Tencent's strategy includes launching complementary products like "Rainbow Six: Siege" and "Valorant" mobile versions to enhance its market position [19]