FICC日报 | 2025-12-19 美联储重启"限制性"立场。美联储12月议息会议宣布在未来30天内购买400亿美元短债，如期降息25基点，点阵图 中值维持对明后两年各降息1次的预期。此前鲍威尔强调美联储的"限制性"立场，重心略偏向抑制通胀和经济，后 续美联储或将再度暂停降息。复盘2019年10月-2020年2月（2月后受疫情扰动）的上轮美联储为稳定货币市场，期 间美联储每月购买600亿美债，整体黄金、原油、铜等金融属性偏强的商品呈震荡格局，美股则有所走强，美元也 呈现震荡格局。显示本轮美联储开启RMP并未形成大水漫灌的效果，更多意义在于为金融市场提供流动性，应理 性看待。基本面方面，美国10月非农就业人数创五年以来最大降幅，11月恢复增长但整体依然乏力，失业率升至 四年高点。美国12月Markit综合PMI创六个月最低，制造业和服务业调查双双低于预期。美国11月核心CPI同比上 涨2.6%，创2021年以来最低水平。数据公布后，美股三大股指期货全线反弹，美元跳水，现货黄金跌幅收窄。劳 工统计局表示，由于联邦政府停摆，该机构未能收集到大部分10月的价格数据。这导致11月通胀数据的环比变化 计算受到严重影响 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Amid the current inflation - expectation gaming phase, focus on the more certain non - ferrous metals and precious metals sectors. Track the sentiment - driven market trends and prepare risk plans for potential right - side adjustments [4]. - The sentiment in the market remains high, but there are risks of policy expectation reversals both domestically and internationally. Be vigilant about the macro and fundamental resonance risks when market sentiment turns cold [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Policy expectations in China are showing a swing. The Politburo Meeting on December 8 emphasized the continuation of an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and the Central Economic Work Conference on December 11 focused on boosting consumption and addressing "involution - style" competition. Multiple ministries have responded. China's November economic data shows industrial resilience, but consumption and fixed - asset investment are under pressure [2]. - The Fed has restarted a "restrictive" stance, with a planned purchase of $40 billion in short - term bonds in the next 30 days and a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut. The Fed may pause rate cuts again. US economic data has shown mixed results, and the eurozone's manufacturing PMI has different trends. There are risks of a downward trend in the market if sentiment cools [3]. Commodity Analysis - Non - ferrous metals: The long - term supply constraint problem has not been alleviated, and the certainty of investment remains high [4]. - Energy: OPEC members have proposed additional production cuts, and the EU plans to stop Russian gas imports by 2027. The expectation of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict has reduced concerns about oil supply disruptions. However, the oil market is facing a severe supply glut, and oil prices have dropped significantly [4]. - Chemicals: There is "anti - involution" potential in varieties such as methanol, caustic soda, urea, and PTA [4]. - Agriculture: With the Sino - US talks, attention should be paid to China's procurement plan for US goods and next year's weather forecast [4]. - Precious metals: There are opportunities for buying on dips, but the short - term risk of silver has increased, and the gold - silver ratio has deviated from the reasonable repair range [4]. Key News - The Central Financial Office detailed the spirit of the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference, stating that a moderately loose monetary policy will continue next year, aiming to promote economic growth and reasonable price recovery, using various monetary policy tools flexibly, and supporting key areas [6]. - China's November economic data shows that industrial production has resilience, but consumption, fixed - asset investment, and the real estate market are under pressure. The prices of 70 large and medium - sized cities have declined [6]. - US economic data includes an increase in non - farm payrolls in November, a rise in the unemployment rate, and a decline in the December manufacturing PMI [3][6]. - The eurozone's December manufacturing PMI has accelerated its contraction, with different performances in Germany and France [3]. - Brent crude oil prices have fallen below $60 per barrel, and WTI crude oil has reached a four - year low due to supply gluts [4][6].

FICC日报 | 2025-12-03 美联储12月降息概率提升。近期多位美联储官员密集释放各派信号，12月降息概率由11月20日的不足30%跳升至 70%以上。美联储主席热门人选、联储理事沃勒主张12月降息；以往紧跟鲍威尔的旧金山联储主席戴利表示，担心 劳动力市场突然恶化，支持12月降息。基本面方面，美国9月季调后非农就业人口录得增长11.9万人，为4月以来最 大增幅，但失业率上升、薪资增速下降。美国11月标普全球综合PMI初值为54.8，四个月来最高，服务业PMI增长 加快，制造业PMI增长放缓。美国11月ISM制造业指数从48.7降低至48.2，创四个月最大降幅、已连续九个月低于 50这一荣枯分水岭，制造商仍难以摆脱长期来的低迷。调美国劳工统计局宣布因停摆期间数据收集工作停滞，将 不再单独发布10月就业报告，部分数据将合并至11月报告发布；不会发布10月CPI通胀报告，11月CPI数据安排在 12月18日发布，第三季度GDP初值将于12月23日公布。美联储主席候选人同样对后续货币政策节奏有着重大影响， 特朗普称"已决定新美联储主席人选"，白宫经济顾问哈塞特称市场对今年底前选定美联储主席的消息反应积极。 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-11-27 美联储降息预期升温，市场风险偏好抬升 市场分析 国内经济基础仍待夯实。10月28日，"十五五"规划建议全文发布，公报提到，到2035年实现我国经济实力、科技 实力、国防实力、综合国力和国际影响力大幅跃升，人均国内生产总值达到中等发达国家水平。按人均GDP目标 推算，"十五五"期间的平均GDP增速或有望维持在5%左右，较强的提振了当下市场情绪和经济预期。10月30日， 中美经贸团队达成三方面成果共识，11月5日，中国正式落实暂缓关税。数据方面，10月全国制造业PMI录得49， 环比值下跌0.8；中国10月出口（以美元计价）同比下降1.1%，前值增8.3%，进出口数据受工作日天数减少以及节 前抢出口影响，前期的"抢出口"和"抢进口"有待消化，同时10月投资、消费和工业的增速也出现不同程度放缓。11 月14日国务院常务会议，研究深入实施"两重"建设有关工作，部署增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费政策措 施，国内经济基础仍待夯实。工信部等6部门印发《关于增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费的实施方案》。11 月26日，沪指全天窄幅震荡，创业板指涨超2%，大消费板块尾盘走强。商品涨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic economic foundation needs further consolidation, but the "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to boost market sentiment and economic expectations, with an estimated average GDP growth rate of around 5% during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [1]. - There are differences in the market's expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates in December, and the Fed's subsequent monetary policy rhythm is affected by multiple factors, including the candidates for the Fed Chairman [2]. - In the current inflation expectation game stage, focus on commodities with high certainty, such as non-ferrous metals and precious metals, and consider buying them on dips [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The domestic economic foundation needs to be strengthened. The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to boost market sentiment, but in October, the manufacturing PMI, export data, and the growth rates of investment, consumption, and industry all showed different degrees of decline [1]. - There are differences in the market's expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates in December. The US government's shutdown has ended, but the US manufacturing index has declined, and employment data is weak. The release of important economic data and the candidates for the Fed Chairman will affect the subsequent monetary policy [2]. Commodity Analysis - In the current inflation expectation game stage, focus on non-ferrous metals and precious metals. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, the non-ferrous sector is boosted by the global easing expectation, the energy supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium term, the "anti-involution" space of some chemical products is worthy of attention, and the agricultural products are affected by Sino-US negotiations and weather expectations [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, consider buying precious metals and non-ferrous metals on dips [4]. Important News - The Chinese government emphasizes building a strong domestic market and developing new quality productive forces. There are also diplomatic and trade events such as Sino-US and South Korea-US economic and trade negotiations, and India-US energy cooperation [1][2][5]. - There are military conflicts and energy supply changes, such as Ukraine's attack on Russian refineries and OPEC+'s decision to increase production [2][3][5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the current inflation expectation game stage, focus on the more certain non-ferrous metals and precious metals. Consider buying precious metals and non-ferrous metals on dips [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In the domestic market, positive news keeps emerging, but the economic foundation still needs to be consolidated. The "15th Five-Year Plan" proposal was released, boosting market sentiment and economic expectations. The average GDP growth rate during the 15th Five-Year Plan period is expected to be around 5%. China and the US reached a three - point consensus on economic and trade, and China officially postponed tariffs. In October, the national manufacturing PMI was 49, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8; exports decreased by 1.1% year - on - year. CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year, and core CPI reached the highest since March 2024. PPI increased month - on - month for the first time this year. The central bank proposed to view financial aggregate indicators scientifically. New social financing in October was 810 billion yuan, and new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan. The M2 - M1 gap widened. On November 13, the A - share market opened lower and closed higher [1] - The US liquidity risk has eased. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected and will end balance - sheet reduction on December 1. The US government shutdown ended. The six - week shutdown is estimated to reduce Q4 GDP by 1.5 percentage points, causing a net loss of about $11 billion. The US ISM manufacturing index in October dropped to 48.7%, shrinking for eight consecutive months. ADP private - sector employment decreased by 45,000, the largest decline in two and a half years. There are uncertainties about the Fed chair candidate and future tariff policies [2] Commodity Analysis - In the commodity market, focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The long - term supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector has not been alleviated, and it has been boosted by the global easing expectation. The medium - term supply of the energy sector is relatively loose, with OPEC+ planning to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. In the chemical sector, pay attention to the "anti - involution" space of methanol, caustic soda, and urea. In the agricultural products sector, pay attention to China's procurement plan for US goods and next year's weather forecast. After the short - term sharp adjustment risk of precious metals is cleared, consider buying on dips. On November 13, spot gold broke through $4,220 per ounce, up 0.61% on the day [3] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, consider buying precious metals and non - ferrous metals on dips [4] Key News - As of the end of October, the balance of local and foreign currency loans was 274.54 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. The balance of RMB loans was 270.61 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. In the first ten months, RMB loans increased by 14.97 trillion yuan. The balance of foreign currency loans was $554.6 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. In the first ten months, foreign currency loans increased by $1.25 billion [5] - As of the end of October, the balance of broad money (M2) was 335.13 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 112 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.55 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 10.6%. In the first ten months, net cash injection was 728.4 billion yuan. The social financing scale increment in the first ten months of 2025 was 30.9 trillion yuan, 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [5] - On November 12, US President Trump signed a federal government temporary appropriation bill, ending the government shutdown. Trump said the shutdown cost $1.5 trillion, and it will take weeks or months to calculate the overall impact. After the government re - opened, he will continue to promote measures such as reducing the cost of living, restoring public safety, and promoting economic growth, and emphasized the "big and beautiful" bill will bring the "largest - ever tax cuts" [5] - Spot gold broke through $4,220 per ounce on November 13, up 0.61% on the day [3][5]

Market Analysis - Domestic market has positive news, but economic foundation needs strengthening. The "15th Five-Year Plan" boosts market sentiment, with an expected average GDP growth rate of around 5% during the period. In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49, down 0.8 month-on-month; exports decreased by 1.1% year-on-year. CPI rose 0.2% year-on-year, and core CPI reached the highest since March 2024. The central bank released the Q3 monetary policy report and net injected 2863 billion yuan on November 11. A-share indices adjusted, with the ChiNext down 1.4%. Super-hard materials concept rose, and photovoltaic and consumer sectors performed well. Commodities mostly rose, with precious metals leading the gains [1]. - US liquidity risk eases. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP and will end balance sheet reduction on December 1. The Senate passed the appropriation bill, and the House will vote. The US ISM manufacturing index fell to 48.7% in October, and the "small non-farm" ADP added 42,000 jobs. Fed理事米兰 supports further rate cuts. Trump plans to reduce tariffs with Switzerland and India [1]. Commodity Analysis - In the inflation expectation game stage, focus on non-ferrous metals and precious metals. The black sector is dragged by downstream demand, and the "anti-involution" situation should be noted. The non-ferrous sector is boosted by global easing expectations with long-term supply constraints. The energy sector has a relatively loose supply in the medium term, with OPEC+ increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. In the chemical sector, the "anti-involution" space of methanol, caustic soda, and urea is worth attention. In the agricultural sector, pay attention to China's procurement plan and next year's weather. After the short-term adjustment of precious metals, consider buying on dips [2]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, buy precious metals and non-ferrous metals on dips [3]. Key News - The central bank released the Q3 2025 monetary policy report, proposing to promote the transformation of the monetary policy framework and pay more attention to price-based regulation [5]. - The US Senate passed the appropriation bill, and the House will vote on it [1][5]. - Trump plans to reduce tariffs with Switzerland and India [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The US government shutdown is expected to end, and risk assets are strengthening. The domestic market has seen frequent positive news, but the economic foundation still needs to be consolidated. The release of the "15th Five-Year Plan" proposal has boosted market sentiment and economic expectations. The US has temporarily alleviated its liquidity risk, but its manufacturing index has declined, and employment and inflation situations are complex. Different commodity sectors have different investment opportunities and focuses [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 28, the full text of the "15th Five-Year Plan" proposal was released. According to the per capita GDP target, the average GDP growth rate during the 15th Five-Year Plan period is expected to be around 5%. On October 30, the China-US economic and trade teams reached a three - aspect consensus, and on November 5, China officially postponed tariffs. In October, the national manufacturing PMI was 49, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8. China's exports in October decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and the previous value increased by 8.3%. China's CPI in October increased by 0.2% year - on - year, and the core CPI reached the highest level since March 2024. The PPI increased month - on - month for the first time this year. On November 10, the State Council General Office issued measures to promote private investment. The A - share market fluctuated and diverged throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.53%. Most commodities closed higher, with lithium carbonate rising by 7.36% and Shanghai silver rising by 2.85% [1] US Situation - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected and announced the end of balance - sheet reduction on December 1. On November 9, the US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill to end the government shutdown, which will provide funds until January 30, 2026. The US ISM manufacturing index in October dropped to 48.7%, shrinking for eight consecutive months. The "small non - farm" ADP in October added 42,000 new jobs, exceeding expectations, but salary growth has stagnated [2] Commodity Analysis - In the current inflation expectation game stage, focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals with high certainty. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations. The long - term supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector has not been alleviated, and it has been boosted by the global easing expectation recently. The medium - term supply of the energy sector is considered relatively loose, with OPEC+ announcing an additional production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in November. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of methanol, caustic soda, urea and other varieties is worthy of attention. In the agricultural products sector, pay attention to China's procurement plan for US goods and next year's weather forecast. After the short - term sharp adjustment risk of precious metals is cleared, pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips. On November 10, spot gold reached $4,100 per ounce for the first time since October 27, rising about 2.5% intraday [3] Key News - China's CPI in October increased by 0.2% year - on - year, and the previous value was - 0.3%. China's PPI in October was - 2.1% year - on - year, and the previous value was - 2.3%. The government encourages private capital to participate in key projects in various fields. The market fluctuated and diverged throughout the day, with about 3,400 stocks rising in the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing stock markets, and the trading volume was 2.19 trillion. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.53%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.18%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.92%. The large - consumption sector, financial stocks, chemical stocks and storage chip sectors performed strongly, while the robot concept stocks adjusted. Most commodity futures closed higher, with lithium carbonate rising by more than 7% and glass falling by more than 2%. Spot gold reached $4,100 per ounce [5]