2 编号：2025-017 | | √特定对象调研□分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 投资者关系活动类 | □媒体采访□业绩说明会 | | 别 | □新闻发布会□路演活动 | | | □现场参观√其他：电话会议 | | 参与单位名称及人 | 高盛：郑睿丰；睿远基金：刘都、赵枫。 | | 员姓名 | | | 时间 | 2025 年 7 月 10 日 | | 地点 | 公司会议室 | | 上市公司接待人员 | 谭梅、章佳佳、陈银琼 | | 姓名 | | | | 1、请问公司近期的市场需求情况？ | | | 答：目前市场需求依然比较疲弱。 | | | 2、请问公司今年在销售策略方面有什么调整吗？ | | | 答：今年，公司更加强调"三高"定位，并积极通过产品迭代升级和服务力提 | | | 升给予消费者更好的用户体验，树立公司良好的品牌形象与市场口碑，打造共赢、 | | | 健康的良好生态。 | | | 3、请问目前行业的竞争格局情况？ | | 投资者关系活动主 | 答：目前塑料管道行业竞争非常激烈，中小型企业生存困难甚至加速淘汰，行 | | 要内容介绍 | 业集中度进一步提升，品牌企业之间的竞争加剧。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The refrigerant industry continues to experience high demand, leading to significant growth in the company's performance. The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.97-2.13 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 136%-155% [1][2]. - The supply of refrigerants is tightening due to the reduction of production quotas for second-generation refrigerants (HCFCs) and the implementation of production quotas for third-generation refrigerants (HFCs) starting in 2024. This, combined with strong downstream demand, is expected to sustain the industry's upward trend [2][3]. Summary by Sections Performance Forecast - For the first half of 2025, the average price of fluorochemical raw materials is expected to be 3,629 yuan/ton, up 10% year-on-year, with sales volume of 188,000 tons, up 12% year-on-year. The average price of refrigerants is projected at 39,372 yuan/ton, up 62% year-on-year, with sales volume of 155,000 tons, down 4% year-on-year [2]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 4.191 billion yuan (up 11%), 5.141 billion yuan (up 10%), and 6.286 billion yuan (up 8%) respectively, translating to EPS of 1.55 yuan, 1.90 yuan, and 2.33 yuan [4][5]. Industry Outlook - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has announced the production and use quotas for ozone-depleting substances and HFCs for 2025, indicating a reduction in second-generation refrigerant quotas by 32,800 tons and third-generation refrigerant quotas exceeding expectations. This orderly reduction in supply, coupled with policies like "old-for-new" exchanges, is expected to support steady growth in demand [3][4]. Financial Metrics - The company’s projected revenue for 2025 is 28.197 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 15.26%. The net profit margin is expected to be 14.9%, with a return on equity (ROE) of 19.62% [5][12].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the China Internet sector is mixed, with major companies like Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, and Pinduoduo experiencing slight declines, while some smaller firms see gains. The market sentiment is influenced by global macro risks, but the Hong Kong stock market remains attractive due to relatively low valuations and strong policy support for the tech sector [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The CSI Overseas China Internet 50 Index (H30533) decreased by 0.39%, with Tencent down 0.4%, Alibaba-W down 0.2%, Meituan-W down 0.6%, Pinduoduo down 1.2%, and Xiaomi Group-W down 0.8% [1]. - Conversely, companies like Yaoshi Bang increased by 4.7%, Zhongxu Future by 3.3%, Dongfang Zhenxuan by 3.0%, Ctrip Group-S by 1.7%, and Zhong An Online by 1.3% [1]. - The China Concept Internet ETF (513050) saw a net inflow of over 610 million yuan in the past five days, with a total fund size exceeding 34 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Trading Activity - On July 9, the Hong Kong Stock Connect recorded a total trading volume of 53.405 billion HKD, with a net buying amount of 4.668 billion HKD [1]. - Alibaba-W had a trading volume of 7.421 billion HKD through the Stock Connect, with a net buy of 1.014 billion HKD, marking three consecutive days of net inflows totaling 2.709 billion HKD [1]. - Meituan-W had a trading volume of 2.566 billion HKD, with a net buy of 0.833 billion HKD, also achieving three days of net inflows totaling 2.682 billion HKD [1]. Group 3: Industry Insights - The CSI Overseas China Internet 50 Index is designed to reflect the overall performance of 50 Chinese internet companies listed overseas, focusing on sectors like e-commerce, AI, social networking, and cloud computing [2]. - The ETF captures the growth potential of leading Chinese internet firms, with the top ten weighted stocks accounting for approximately 90% of the index [2].

上海国际航运研究中心7月7日发布2025年第二季度中国航运景气报告。报告显示，2025年第二季度，中 国航运景气指数为120.81点，较上季度上涨14.77点，升至较为景气区间；中国航运信心指数为123.22 点，较上季度上升12.89点，由相对景气区间升至较为景气区间。总体来看，本季度航运业热度相较上 季度有所上升。展望2025年第三季度市场趋势，7日中国航运景气指数编制室主任周德全向记者表示， 总体来看，下季度除干散货企业的信心指数较本季度有所上升外，其余类型航运企业的信心指数将有不 同程度的下滑，其中集装箱运输企业信心指数下降幅度最大，较本季度下降10点至相对景气区间。 ...

6 月政府债发行进度进一步加快 多重利好共振， 6 月汽车消费维持高位 BCI 指数跌破荣枯线，显示企业预期偏谨慎 经济景气度维持韧性，二季度 GDP 或在 5.3%~5.4% 左右 01 6月政府债发行进度进一步加快 本期Headline 6月政府债发行维持高位，wind口径政府债发行2.8万亿，前值2.3万亿，净融资1.41万亿，前值1.49万亿元。 关于本栏目 高频数据难懂？挖掘信息不易？【国金高频图鉴】每周一期，与您一同从高频数据库中抽丝剥茧，看懂全球经济的新变化。如需底层数据库，欢迎联系国金宏观团 队。 截至2025年6月末，wind口径下政府债净融资规模7.8万亿，发行进度为56.2%。其中，一般国债、特别国债、新增专项债、特殊再融资专项债、新增一般债 的累计发行进度为52.0%、47.5%、49.1%、85.2%、56.5%。 02 多重利好共振，汽车消费维持高位 03 BCI指数跌破荣枯线，企业预期谨慎 2025年6月，中国BCI指数从5月的50.3降至49.3，跌破50的荣枯线。 其中，销售和利润前瞻指数分别回落2.7、2.9个百分点，显示企业对后续订单增长和盈利改善的信心减弱，市场需求恢复 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.7.4」 集运指数（欧线）期货周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 本周集运指数（欧线）期货价格震荡为主，主力合约EC2508收涨3.01%，远月合约收得-1-2%不等，现价指数持续 改善，支撑主力合约期价运行。最新SCFIS欧线结算运价指数为2123.24，较上周回升186.1点，环比上行9.6%。最新 数据显示，美国6月非农就业人口增加14.7万人，远超预期的11万人，4月和5月就业人数合计上修1.6万人。失业率意 外降至4.1%，预期为升至4.3%。美国上周初请失业金人数23.3万人，创六周新低。数据公布后，市场放弃对7月美联 储降息的押注，9月降息的概率也下滑至80%左右，目前预计美联储从10月份开始降息、在年底前降息51个基点，低于 报告发布前约66个基点的预期。此外，在关税预期缓和及德国财政扩张政策支撑下，欧元区经济显现触底迹象，德国 ZEW经济景气指数创三年新高，5月CPI持稳于2.3%，但工业产出环比骤降2.4%，制造业仍相对承压。 总的来看，头部船司 ...

事件：根据第一商用车网，6月重卡实现整体销量约9.2万辆，同比增长28.9%，环比增长3.6%;1-6月重 卡实现整体销量53.3万辆，同比增长5.8%。 方正证券主要观点如下： 智通财经APP获悉，方正证券发布研报称，优先关注板块龙头，中国重汽(03808)则受益于内销转暖与非 俄持续增长，成本与费用管控持续推进，下半年业绩有望实现高增，考虑板块景气度回升，估值有望同 步扩张，具备双击机会。潍柴动力(02338)天然气发动机短期承压，但边际存改善空间，且非重卡的大 缸径发动机产品持续高增，全年有望贡献显著业绩增量，成长性显著优于行业，全年分红有望提升，股 息率具备吸引力。福田汽车(600166.SH)则关注于福田戴姆勒拖累减轻，重卡市占率提升带来业绩弹性 机会。 风险提示：政策执行力度不及预期;行业竞争加剧;原材料价格及汇率波动。 6月重卡实现整体销量9.2万辆，同比增长28.9%，环比增长3.6%，为连续2个月环比正增长，同比实现三 连涨，区别于以往3月旺季后需求走弱，今年重卡需求在报废换新政策有效拉动下，呈现淡季不淡，二 季度重卡实现销量26.8万辆，同比增长15.8%，环比增长1.3%，上半年重卡累计 ...

核心观点 | 美的集团(股票代码:000333) | | --- | | | | 分析师 | 何伟 | | --- | | 省: 021-20257811 | | 区:hewei_yj@chinastock.com.cn | | 分析师登记编码：S0130525010001 | | 刘立思 | | 図: liulisi_yj@chinastock.com.cn | | 分析师登记编码：S0130524070002 | | 杨策 | | 网: yangce_yj@chinastock.com.cn | | 分析师登记编码：S0130520050005 | | 陆思源 | | 区: lusiyuan_yj@chinastock.com.cn | | 分析师登记编码：S0130525060001 | 公司点评 · 家用电器行业 行业景气下行,凸显公司稳增长与分红收益率 2025年07月02日 | 市场数据 | 2025 年 07 月 01 日 | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 000333 | | A 股收盘价(元) | 72.11 | | 上证指数 | 3,457.75 | | 总股本(万股) | ...

Group 1: Coal Industry - In June 2025, coal prices are lower than the same period last year, leading to a forecast of a year-on-year decline in industry profits for July 2025, maintaining a neutral outlook for the coal industry [3]. Group 2: Livestock Farming - As of the end of May 2025, the number of breeding sows is 40.42 million, showing a slight month-on-month increase. It is predicted that the supply and demand for pigs will balance in Q4 2025, with pork prices expected to stabilize at the bottom while waiting for a significant reduction in production capacity [4]. Group 3: Steel Industry - A forecast for June 2025 indicates a year-on-year negative growth in profits for the general steel industry. The rolling average of PMI has not exceeded the threshold, maintaining a neutral signal for the steel industry [5]. Group 4: Construction Materials and Engineering - In June 2025, the gross profit of float glass is expected to decline year-on-year, maintaining a neutral signal for the glass industry. The cement industry is predicted to see year-on-year profit growth in June 2025, awaiting positive signals from new housing starts, also maintaining a neutral outlook for the cement industry [5]. - The manufacturing PMI rolling average is stabilizing, while year-on-year data for commercial housing sales shows a slight decline. Economic data remains stable, and expectations for infrastructure support are unlikely to materialize, maintaining a neutral signal for the construction and decoration industry [5]. Group 5: Fuel Refining and Oil Services - A forecast for June 2025 suggests that profits in the fuel refining industry will remain roughly flat year-on-year, maintaining a neutral outlook. Oil prices have not yet formed an upward trend year-on-year, and new drilling activities are also stable year-on-year, leading to a neutral outlook for oil services [6].

2025 年 7 月 2 日 总量研究 能繁母猪存栏微增，炼化行业景气度同比持稳 ——金融工程行业景气月报 20250702 要点 行业景气度信号追踪 煤炭：25 年 6 月，煤价低于上年同期，我们预测 25 年 7 月行业利润同比下降， 维持煤炭行业中性观点。 畜牧养殖：25 年 5 月底能繁母猪存栏为 4042 万头，环比微增。据此我们预测 25Q4 生猪供需平衡，猪肉价格底部震荡，等待产能明显去化阶段。 普钢：我们预测 25 年 6 月普钢行业利润同比负增长。PMI 滚动均值环比未超阈 值，维持普钢行业中性信号。 结构材料与建筑工程：我们测算 25 年 6 月浮法玻璃毛利同比下降，维持玻璃行 业中性信号；我们预测水泥行业 25 年 6 月利润同比正增长，等待房屋新开工面 积出现积极信号，维持水泥行业中性观点；制造业 PMI 滚动均值企稳，商品房 销售数据同比微降，经济数据维持企稳态势，预计基建托底预期难以发酵，维持 建筑装饰行业中性信号。 燃料型炼化与油服：我们预测燃料型炼化行业 25 年 6 月利润同比大体持平，维 持中性观点。油价尚未形成同比上行趋势，新钻井同比大体持平，维持油服中性 观点。 风险分 ...