【中泰金工】市场整体情绪修复，传统行业走强而科技承压 ——行业轮动全景观察（2025.06） 分析师：李倩云 执业证书编号：S0740520050001 Email：liqy02@zts.com.cn 分析师：熊婧妍 执业证书编号：S0740523110005 Email：xiongjy01@zts.com.cn 全景观察（2025.05）》2025-05-05 2、《【中泰金工】资源型行业拥挤 （2025.04）》2025-04-02 证券研究报告/金融工程定期报告 2025 年 06 月 04 日 报告摘要 风险提示：结论基于公开的历史数据进行统计、测算，文中部分数据有一定滞后性，同时 存在第三方数据提供不准确风险；对基金产品和基金管理人的研究分析结论并不预示其未 来表现，也不能保证未来的可持续性，亦不构成投资收益的保证或投资建议；产品的表现 受宏观环境、行业基本面超预期变动、市场波动、风格转换等多重因素影响，存在一定波 动风险。 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 行业月度收益：本月 A 股市场在超长期特别国债发行、LPR 降息预期等政策及内需复 苏（"五一"消费数据超预期）推动下结束调整，主要指数震荡上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that while valuation is a crucial concept in equity investment, its direct impact on stock prices is inconsistent and influenced by various factors [2][6]. Valuation and Market Conditions - Valuation's influence on stock prices is unstable, as shown in a study by Everbright Securities, which analyzed the relationship between valuation and stock price movements across different industries from January 2013 to February 2025 [2]. - Market tolerance for valuation varies under different conditions, particularly in relation to earnings growth rates [4][5]. - High-growth scenarios (earnings growth above 30%) show minimal differences in returns between high and low valuation combinations, especially when growth exceeds 100% [5]. - Conversely, in low-growth scenarios, market tolerance for high valuations decreases, leading to better performance from lower valuation combinations [5]. Market Sentiment and Valuation Preferences - Market sentiment, represented by turnover rates, affects investor preferences for valuation. During bullish sentiment, investors favor high-valuation sectors, while in bearish conditions, they lean towards low-valuation sectors [5]. - The combination of market sentiment with valuation metrics significantly enhances the effectiveness of industry grouping based on PE ratios [5]. Complexity of Valuation - Valuation is important for providing a long-term perspective on investment levels, but the "reasonable valuation" at any given moment is subject to multiple influences [6]. - Acknowledging the complexity of valuation and maintaining a respectful attitude towards market dynamics is essential for assessing investment opportunities related to valuation fluctuations [6].