Q&A 近期北汽蓝谷的市场表现如何？未来展望如何？ 北汽蓝谷 20250825 摘要 享界 S9T 预售价格低于预期，起步价 329,800 元，正式售价或更低， 有望刺激销量增长，缓解此前纯电版 S9 因续航和定价问题导致的销量 不佳局面。 增程版 S9 的推出有效解决了里程焦虑，且价格低于纯电版 9 万元，加 之舆论压力减轻，销量开始回暖，显示出市场对增程版车型的认可。 F9T 在定价、动力形式和舆论环境方面均优于去年的 F9，预计销量将超 过 S9，有望成为北汽蓝谷新的增长点。 国内 30 万以上豪华轿车市场仍以 BBA 品牌为主导，但 SUV 市场的经验 表明，新兴新能源品牌有机会通过强大的产品力打破现有格局。 享界 S9 在 30 万以上高端新能源轿车领域销量领先，S9T 的推出有望进 一步提升销量，年底 S9 和 S9T 合计月销量或达 8,000 至 10,000 辆。 若享界 S9 和 S9T 今年达成销量目标，明年全年销量有望达到 15 万辆， 对应营收约 520 至 550 亿元人民币，享界品牌估值或超 700 亿元。 极狐品牌通过推出新款车型 T1，预售订单迅速突破 15,000 辆，预 ...

2025年上半年，北汽新能源累计销量约6.72万辆，同比增长139.73%。除了极狐品牌，享界S9在6月交付量达到4154辆，环比增长94.7%。 8月22日，极狐T1以6.88万至9.38万元的价格区间开启预售，短短2小时订单达到11068辆。这款A0级纯电动车，颠覆了极狐原本的高端形象，预示着这个曾 经对标特斯拉的品牌，正下沉到入门级市场背水一战。 极狐品牌最初定位于高端市场，北汽携手麦格纳、华为等技术伙伴塑造了极狐的高端形象。早期，极狐推出的阿尔法T、阿尔法S等车型均瞄准中高端市 场，试图在新能源市场占据一席之地。 尽管2025年上半年极狐品牌销量达5.55万辆，同比增长211.06%，但相比头部新能源车企仍有相当差距。 汽车市场价格战加剧，是极狐此次战略转变的关键外部因素。政策环境变化也是重要因素，国补退坡后地方补贴接力，动力电池成本不断下降，为电动汽车 提供了更灵活的定价空间。 极狐背后的北汽集团的销量增长需求同样不容忽视。目前，北汽集团提出了新的发展愿景，正实施"三年跃升行动计划"，目标是到2027年，整车销量要突破 300万辆，其中自主品牌乘用车要实现年销100万辆，新能源占比超过50%。 作为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the new model, Xiangjie S9T, by BAIC Blue Valley has generated significant pre-sale interest, indicating potential for a strong market performance in the luxury and new energy vehicle segments [2][4]. Group 1: Product Launch and Market Response - The Xiangjie S9T has a pre-sale price of 328,000 yuan, with over 10,000 units reserved within the first hour and 20,000 within 24 hours [2]. - The vehicle is designed by a team led by the newly hired chief designer, Luo Weiji, and is positioned as a luxury travel car with dual power options and advanced smart driving systems from Huawei [2][3]. - The Xiangjie brand is a collaboration between BAIC Blue Valley and Huawei, aimed at penetrating the high-end market and enhancing profitability [3][5]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Strategic Focus - BAIC Blue Valley reported a net loss of 2.33 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, despite a three-digit year-on-year increase in sales and revenue [2][4]. - The company is shifting resources towards the Xiangjie and Arcfox brands, as the BEIJING brand is undergoing adjustments due to underperformance [3]. - The overall revenue for BAIC New Energy reached 9.517 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 154.38%, with vehicle sales growing by 139.73% to 67,200 units [4]. Group 3: Market Strategy and Future Outlook - The performance of the Xiangjie brand in the second half of the year is critical for BAIC Blue Valley's financial recovery, with the Xiangjie S9T expected to contribute significantly [4][5]. - The company has initiated independent channel development to enhance brand marketing and sales, with over 700 stores established by June 30 [5]. - The Xiangjie S9T is set to officially launch in September, and its success will be closely monitored in the competitive luxury car market [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company's Q2 2025 performance met expectations, with significant revenue growth and improvements in sales volume and gross margin despite ongoing losses [1][2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.744 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 156.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 52.2% [1]. The sales volume reached 39,000 units, with a year-on-year growth of 120.5% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 42.3% [2]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q2 2025 was -1.355 billion yuan, an improvement from -1.555 billion yuan in Q2 2024 and -0.953 billion yuan in Q1 2025 [1]. The adjusted net profit was -1.374 billion yuan [1]. - **Gross Margin**: The gross margin for Q2 2025 was -4.14%, showing improvements in both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter comparisons [2]. - **Expense Ratios**: The company reported significant improvements in expense ratios for Q2 2025, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios at 8.8%, 3.7%, and 10.2%, respectively [2]. Future Outlook - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to -3.8 billion, -1.5 billion, and 1.3 billion yuan, respectively, due to intensified industry competition [4]. However, the potential for increased sales volume of the Xiangjie model remains promising, leading to a maintained "buy" rating [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with significant growth anticipated in vehicle sales [8] - The report highlights that the company achieved a revenue of 5.744 billion yuan in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 156.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 52.2% [8] - The sales volume for Q2 2025 was 39,000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 120.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 42.3% [8] - The report notes that the gross margin for Q2 2025 was -4.14%, showing improvement compared to previous quarters [8] - The company is expected to see a significant increase in revenue in the coming years, with projected total revenue reaching 32.731 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year growth of 125.55% [1][9] Financial Summary - The total revenue forecast for 2025 is 32.731 billion yuan, with a projected net profit of -3.76 billion yuan [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at -0.67 yuan, improving to 0.23 yuan by 2027 [1] - The company's total assets are projected to reach 83.074 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 62.04% [9] - The report indicates a significant improvement in the company's operating cash flow, expected to be 4.237 billion yuan in 2025 [9]

Core Insights - Xiaomi's automotive factory showcases advanced manufacturing technology, producing a new vehicle every 76 seconds, highlighting the efficiency and innovation in the automotive industry [1][2] - The factory has achieved 100% automation in key processes, demonstrating a significant shift from traditional manufacturing to intelligent manufacturing [2][4] - The factory has attracted significant public interest, with over 93,000 visitors in the first half of the year, indicating a growing fascination with industrial tourism and modern manufacturing [2][5] Group 1 - The Xiaomi automotive factory is described as a "black light factory," having produced over 300,000 electric vehicles in just over a year [2] - The factory environment is clean and organized, contrasting with traditional manufacturing perceptions, and features various robots performing tasks such as assembly and material handling [1][2] - The factory's advanced technology includes a 9,100-ton die-casting machine that achieves precision within a hair's breadth, showcasing the high-tech capabilities of the facility [2][4] Group 2 - The Beijing New Energy Vehicle factory, set to begin production in 2024, is also embracing similar advanced manufacturing techniques, emphasizing the industry's shift towards automation and precision [3][4] - The factory has implemented strict quality control measures and eco-friendly practices, achieving zero heavy metal emissions and 100% waste gas treatment [4] - Industrial tourism is becoming a valuable aspect of the automotive sector, with factories like Xiaomi's and Beijing New Energy Vehicle's attracting visitors and generating interest in local tourism [5]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 12.68 RMB, indicating a potential upside of 47% from the current price of 8.62 RMB [6][70]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic new energy vehicle market, with a comprehensive brand matrix and a focus on high-end and scenario-based segmentation strategies [1][18]. - The collaboration with Huawei is deepening, enhancing the company's technological capabilities and market positioning, particularly in the high-end electric vehicle segment [3][43]. - The company has shown significant revenue growth, with a 150.75% year-on-year increase in Q1 2025, indicating a recovery from previous losses [1][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is the first new energy vehicle manufacturer listed in China, with three major brands: ARCFOX, Beijing Automotive, and HUAWEI's Xiangjie, covering various market segments [1][15]. - The company has implemented a three-year leap plan focusing on marketing, quality, and cost management, which has started to show positive results in revenue and profit margins [15][19]. 2. ARCFOX Brand Development - ARCFOX is transitioning to the mainstream vehicle market, with a focus on mid-to-high-end electric vehicles priced between 100,000 to 300,000 RMB [2][29]. - The brand has launched several new models and implemented pricing strategies to boost sales, achieving a 169.91% year-on-year increase in deliveries for 2024 [2][30]. 3. Xiangjie Brand and Huawei Collaboration - The Xiangjie brand, developed in collaboration with Huawei, targets the high-end market with the S9 model, which has become a leader in the luxury electric vehicle segment priced above 400,000 RMB [3][46]. - The partnership with Huawei has evolved from the HI model to a more integrated smart vehicle model, enhancing product design and market reach [43][44]. 4. Financial Projections - The company expects significant revenue growth from 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of 362.52 billion RMB, 617.94 billion RMB, and 795.76 billion RMB, representing year-on-year growth rates of 149.8%, 70.5%, and 28.8% respectively [70][74]. - The forecasted net profit for the same period is expected to improve, moving from a loss of 38.40 million RMB in 2025 to a profit of 9.18 million RMB by 2027 [70][74].

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing fluctuations in sales and profitability, with a focus on the growth of its premium brands and the development of new electric vehicle models to enhance market presence and technological capabilities [4][5][6][8]. Sales Performance - In July 2025, the company's vehicle sales decreased by 6.4% year-on-year and 14.3% month-on-month, totaling 10,280 units, while cumulative sales from January to July increased by 98.6% to 77,000 units [4]. - For the year 2024, the company achieved a total vehicle sales increase of 23.53% to 114,000 units, with the premium brand, Extreme Fox, seeing a significant rise of 169.91% to 81,000 units [6]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 14.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, but a net loss that expanded by 28.7% to 6.95 billion yuan. The revenue for Q4 2024 decreased by 6.3% year-on-year and 22.8% month-on-month to 4.69 billion yuan [5]. - In Q1 2025, the company’s revenue surged by 150.8% year-on-year to 3.77 billion yuan, while the net loss narrowed by 6.2% to 950 million yuan [5]. Margin Recovery - The gross margin for Q1 2025 improved to -7.5%, a year-on-year increase of 0.4 percentage points and a month-on-month increase of 14.5 percentage points, primarily driven by the strong sales of the Extreme Fox brand [7]. - The company anticipates further margin recovery with the upcoming launch of new models equipped with advanced driving systems [7]. Strategic Initiatives - The company announced plans to raise up to 6 billion yuan through a private placement to fund the development of various new energy vehicle models and AI-driven platforms [8]. - The "Three-Year Leap Action" initiative aims to enhance brand collaboration and market penetration in the mid-to-high-end segments through technological advancements and improved channel efficiency [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is transitioning from a sales champion to a technology pioneer in the electric vehicle market, having established itself as China's first independent electric vehicle manufacturer through its subsidiary, BAIC New Energy [1] - The collaboration with Huawei aims to develop next-generation intelligent connected electric vehicle technologies, with the first model, the Xiangjie S9, set to launch in August 2024 [1][3] - The company is focusing on the synergistic development of its two brands, Xiangjie and Arcfox, to create a diversified product matrix that includes high-end, mid-range, and mass-market vehicles [2] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 2009, the company has shifted its strategic focus towards high-end intelligent electric vehicles since its major restructuring in 2018 [1] - The company has signed a cooperation agreement with Huawei to jointly develop advanced vehicle technologies [1] Brand Development - The company is developing a diversified product matrix with three product lines: Arcfox Alpha (mid to high-end), Arcfox Beta (mass market), and Xiangjie (luxury) [2] - The Arcfox brand has seen significant sales growth, with 2024 sales expected to reach 113,900 units, a year-on-year increase of 23.5%, and Arcfox sales projected at 81,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 169.9% [2] Product Launches - The Xiangjie S9, a luxury intelligent electric vehicle, will be priced starting at 399,800 yuan, aiming to compete with established luxury brands [3] - The launch of the Xiangjie S9 range-extended version in April 2025 is expected to alleviate consumer range anxiety and boost sales [3] Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 14.512 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, but reported a net loss of 6.948 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 28.7% [8] - The introduction of the Xiangjie S9 range-extended version is anticipated to improve the company's profitability [3][8] Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 32.23 billion yuan, 48.26 billion yuan, and 74.16 billion yuan, respectively, with expected EPS of -1.0, -0.4, and 0.2 yuan [9] - The company is expected to improve its profitability as it expands its product matrix and enhances its market presence in the high-end electric vehicle segment [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - July sales showed a decline both year-on-year and month-on-month, with total sales of 10,280 units, a decrease of 6.4% year-on-year and 14.3% month-on-month. Cumulative sales from January to July increased by 98.6% to 77,000 units [1]. - The company's performance in Q4 2024 was slightly below expectations, with revenue of 14.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, and a net loss of 6.95 billion yuan, an increase of 28.7% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue increased by 150.8% year-on-year to 3.77 billion yuan, with a net loss of 9.5 billion yuan, narrowing by 6.2% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is expected to benefit from the launch of new high-end models, particularly the Xiangjie S9T, which is anticipated to enhance its market position in the high-end segment [2][3]. Sales and Financial Performance - The company’s automotive sales for 2024 are projected to increase by 23.53% to 114,000 units, with the extreme fox brand expected to see a significant rise of 169.91% to 81,000 units [2]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 is expected to improve, driven by strong sales of the extreme fox brand and the upcoming launch of new models equipped with advanced technology [2][3]. - The company plans to raise up to 6 billion yuan through a private placement to enhance its electric vehicle technology capabilities and support the development of multiple new energy vehicle models [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 are set at 32.32 billion yuan and 57.73 billion yuan, respectively, with expected net losses of 4.81 billion yuan and 2.05 billion yuan [5][12]. - The report anticipates a return to profitability by 2027, with a projected net profit of 870 million yuan [3][5]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on dual-brand development with Xiangjie and Extreme Fox to enhance its market penetration in the mid-to-high-end segments [3]. - The report highlights the importance of technological advancements and brand positioning in improving the company's competitive edge in the rapidly evolving electric vehicle market [3].