根据华金证券发布的《消费行业专题报告》，2026年初的消费市场呈现出"L型磨底"的总体态势，社零增速虽受春节错期、大促退潮等因素影响短期回落， 但剔除扰动后，消费大盘已进入底部震荡区间，结构性亮点愈发突出。 报告指出，消费市场正在加速形成"K型分化"格局——一端是具备强韧性的"极致质价比"类刚需消费，另一端则是承载"情绪价值"的高溢价精神消费，而中 间价位的传统可选消费则面临增长乏力的困境。 这一趋势深刻反映了居民边际消费倾向（MPC）修复缓慢下，中产阶级消费决策的理性回归：对非必要支出更为审慎，但在真正满足"悦己"和"社交"需求的 品类上仍愿意支付溢价。 从数据维度看，服务消费展现出显著优于商品零售的韧性。 2025年12月餐饮收入同比增长2.2%，远超商品零售0.7%的增速，"吃类"线上实物商品全年增速高达14.5%，成为支撑消费大盘的"压舱石"。 与此同时，以体育娱乐（+9.0%）、文化办公（+9.2%）和化妆品（+8.8%）为代表的"情绪消费"赛道逆势高增，与地产后周期板块（如家电-18.7%、建筑装 潢-11.8%）形成巨大反差，印证了消费需求正从物质满足向精神体验迁移的长期趋势。 估值层面，核心消 ...

2026 年 01 月 29 日 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 | 1、《双融日报》2026-01-28 | | --- | | 2、《双融日报》2026-01-27 | | 3、《双融日报》2026-01-26 | ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较热） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 67 分，市场情绪处于"较热"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：67 分（较热） ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：化工、银行、消费 1、化工主题："十五五"规划强调扩大内需，叠加美国降息 周期，化工品需求预期提升。行业供需双底基本确立，政策 助力产能出清，且资本开支连续两年负增长，供给端持续收 缩。市场普遍预计，2026 年化工行业将迎来周期拐点，有望 实现从估值修复到业绩增长的"戴维斯双击"，开启新一轮 上 升 周 期 。 相 关 标 的 ： 卫 星 化 学 （ 002648 ） 、 云 ...

2026 年 01 月 28 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：55 分（中性） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 | 1、《双融日报》2026-01-27 | | --- | | 2、《双融日报》2026-01-26 | | 3、《双融日报》2026-01-23 | ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（中性） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 55 分，市场情绪处于"中性"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：化工、银行、消费 1、化工主题："十五五"规划强调扩大内需，叠加美国降息 周期，化工品需求预期提升。行业供需双底基本确立，政策 助力产能出清，且资本开支连续两年负增长，供给端持续收 缩。市场普遍预计，2026 年化工行业将迎来周期拐点，有望 实现从估值修复到业绩增长的"戴维斯双击"，开启新一轮 上 升 周 期 。 相 关 标 的 ： 卫 星 化 学 （ 002648 ） 、 云 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates a neutral market sentiment with a score of 52, suggesting a balanced outlook for investors [2][10] - Key themes identified include chemicals, banking, and consumer sectors, each expected to perform well due to specific macroeconomic factors and policy support [6][10] Group 1: Chemicals Sector - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes expanding domestic demand, coupled with the US interest rate cut cycle, which is expected to boost demand for chemical products [6] - The industry is anticipated to reach a cyclical turning point in 2026, with expectations for valuation recovery and performance growth, termed as a "Davis Double Play" [6] - Relevant stocks in this sector include Satellite Chemical (002648) and Yuntianhua (600096) [6] Group 2: Banking Sector - Banking stocks are characterized by high dividend yields, with the CSI Bank Index yielding 6.02%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield [6] - In a slowing economy with increased market volatility, banking stocks are seen as stable investment options for long-term funds such as insurance and social security [6] - Key banking stocks mentioned include Agricultural Bank of China (601288) and Ningbo Bank (002142) [6] Group 3: Consumer Sector - The macro policy for 2026 focuses on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption, leading to positive market expectations [6] - The consumer market is undergoing significant changes, showcasing three new trends: "emotional value" in luxury goods, "extreme quality-price ratio" in discount retail, and "efficiency innovation" in AI e-commerce [6] - Notable consumer stocks include Yonghui Superstores (601933) and Wangfujing (600859) [6]

2026 年 01 月 26 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：73 分（较热） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较热） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 73 分，市场情绪处于"较热"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：商业航天、银行、消费 1、商业航天主题：埃隆·马斯克正积极推进 SpaceX 的 IPO 计划，目标在今年 7 月前完成。作为行业标杆，其上市预期 极大地提振了全球市场对整个商业航天赛道的关注与信心。 另外，低轨轨道和频谱资源遵循"先占先得"的国际规则。 数据显示，可用轨位空间已十分紧张，中国已申请超 20 万颗 卫星的轨道频率，这直接倒逼各国加快卫星制造与发射节奏 以抢占资源，是行情核心驱动力。相关标的：中国卫星 （600118）、航天电子（600879） 2、银行主题：银行股具有高股息特性，如中证银行指数的股 息率高达 6. ...

2026 年 01 月 23 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：72 分（较热） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 | 1、《双融日报》2026-01-22 | | --- | | 2、《双融日报》2026-01-21 | | 3、《双融日报》2026-01-20 | ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较热） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 72 分，市场情绪处于"较热"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：商业航天、银行、消费 1、商业航天主题：埃隆·马斯克正积极推进 SpaceX 的 IPO 计划，目标在今年 7 月前完成。作为行业标杆，其上市预期 极大地提振了全球市场对整个商业航天赛道的关注与信心。 另外，低轨轨道和频谱资源遵循"先占先得"的国际规则。 数据显示，可用轨位空间已十分紧张，中国已申请超 20 万颗 卫星的轨道频率，这直接倒逼各国加快卫星制造与发射节奏 以抢占资源 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese makeup market is witnessing a significant shift with the rise of domestic brands priced around 50 yuan, which are dominating various categories on platforms like Douyin [1][2][5] - This shift indicates a change in competitive dynamics, where product innovation focused on "extreme cost-performance" and addressing consumer pain points is becoming crucial [1][2] Market Dynamics - The makeup market is divided into three main forces: international luxury brands (e.g., YSL, Nars) that dominate the high-end segment, established domestic brands (e.g., Mao Geping, Huaxizi) that are upgrading their offerings, and the emerging "new makeup" brands priced around 50 yuan [2][5] - The 0-50 yuan price segment accounts for one-fifth of the overall market, with over 50% market share in eye makeup categories [5][12] Sales Performance - Brands like Sanzi Tang, eLL, and BABI have consistently ranked in the top 20 on Douyin, showcasing their ability to maintain sales momentum over several months [9][12] - During the 2025 Douyin Double 11 event, several domestic brands achieved over a million units in sales, indicating strong consumer demand and market penetration [12][14] Product Innovation - The "50 yuan makeup" brands have captured at least 21 category tops on Douyin, demonstrating their dominance in specific segments such as foundation, eye makeup, and lip products [17][29] - These brands focus on specific consumer needs with high cost-performance products, leading to their success in the market [17][23] Consumer Behavior - A fundamental shift in consumer logic is observed, where younger consumers prioritize practical solutions over brand prestige, favoring products that address their daily makeup challenges [23][30] - The emergence of three distinct brand types—established brands adapting to new channels, new brands thriving in content-driven e-commerce, and native brands leveraging efficiency—illustrates the diverse paths to success in this market [25][27][29] Brand Strategy - Brands are increasingly focusing on multi-channel strategies, transitioning from reliance on traffic to building brand equity through offline and online presence [31] - The appointment of celebrity endorsements is becoming a key strategy for these brands to enhance emotional connections and brand identity among consumers [32][34]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese makeup market is undergoing a significant transformation, with a new force of domestic brands priced around 50 yuan emerging to redefine market dynamics and competition [3][5][12]. Market Dynamics - The makeup market is divided into three main forces: international luxury brands (e.g., YSL, Estée Lauder) dominating the high-end segment, local leading brands (e.g., Mao Geping, Huaxizi) focusing on brand upgrades, and the emerging "new makeup" brands priced around 50 yuan [5][7]. - The 0-50 yuan price segment accounts for one-fifth of the overall market, with over 50% market share in eye makeup, indicating its dominance in this category [7][11]. Sales Performance - Brands priced around 50 yuan have shown strong sales performance on platforms like Douyin, with several brands achieving over a million units sold during events like Double 11 [11][12]. - The brands in this price range have demonstrated consistent ranking in sales, with some brands maintaining top positions for several months, showcasing their operational stability [10][12]. Consumer Behavior - The rise of 50 yuan makeup brands reflects a fundamental shift in consumer logic, where younger consumers prioritize practical solutions over luxury branding [15][22]. - The success of these brands is attributed to their ability to address specific consumer pain points with high cost-performance ratios [15][22]. Brand Evolution - The emerging brands can be categorized into three types based on their establishment years: 1. Established brands (before 2017) that adapted to new channels [16]. 2. New brands (2018-2021) that grew alongside content e-commerce [18]. 3. Native Douyin brands (after 2022) that focus on efficiency and niche markets [20][22]. Strategic Development - These brands are transitioning from a focus on traffic to building brand assets through multi-channel strategies, including entering physical retail spaces [24][25]. - Brand image is being enhanced through celebrity endorsements, aiming to create deeper emotional connections with consumers [26][28]. Conclusion - The 50 yuan makeup brands are reshaping the market landscape, proving the power of niche segments and high cost-performance ratios, while emphasizing the importance of product barriers and brand value for long-term success [28].

Core Viewpoint - The company expects a net profit of 11 million to 14 million yuan for the first half of 2025, despite facing significant market pressure in the restaurant industry due to fluctuating consumer demand and market conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11 million to 14 million yuan for the first half of 2025 [1]. - The restaurant industry continues to experience substantial market pressure, with a slowdown in growth momentum for market demand [1]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively enhancing service quality, innovating menu offerings, and refreshing consumer experiences to adapt to changing market conditions [1]. - Full integration of "scene + culture" elements is being pursued to create a new framework of "product + service + scene," aimed at improving service quality and providing high value dining experiences [1][2]. Group 3: Online and Offline Expansion - The company has accelerated its online presence by partnering with "JD Express" for delivery services, enhancing operational efficiency through online ordering and data analysis [2]. - New themed restaurants have been opened to attract consumers, including the first direct-operated store in Hainan, expanding the company's national footprint [2]. Group 4: Product Development and Channel Expansion - The company has launched new products that align with contemporary consumer needs and engaged in cross-marketing with well-known IPs to diversify its offerings [2]. - Collaborations with major retail chains like 711 and RT-Mart have been strengthened, and community convenience stores have been established to penetrate high-frequency consumption scenarios [2].