以下文章来源于微积分量化价投 ，作者微积分量化价投 微积分量化价投 . 专业，全面，深度，客观的研究，传递投资价值 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：微积分量化价投 来源：雪球 "多元配置策略组合，需要择时吗？" 这句看似简单的提问，背后承载着每一位投资者都曾经历的内心交战：一边是市场波动带来的恐惧，想"落袋为安"；另一边是对踏空的焦虑， 想"再多赚一点"。对于股票这类高弹性资产，这种情绪尤为普遍。 但当我们面对一个已经通过资产配置降低了波动的"多元资产组合"时，问题似乎变得更加复杂：我们是否还需要用"择时"这把手术刀，对这个本已 相对稳健的系统进行干预？ 今天，我们不谈复杂的模型，不给"万能公式"，只想和你一起，像一位老朋友那样，拨开"择时"的迷雾，探寻其背后的投资哲学。 战略上的思考 一、颠覆认知：择时不谈对错，只论匹配 在我们深入之前，必须建立一个核心认知： 择时，本质上不是一个"是非题"，而是一个"匹配题" 。它考验的，是"资产的性格"与"投资者的能 力"这两者之间，能否达成和谐的统一。 1. 先看资产的" ...

同壁：近一年涨超110%！中证2000增强ETF午盘再度"吸金"近5000万 金融界、同花顺：杠杠资金加速涌入，投资小盘应该注意些什么？ 午盘三大指数集体收红，沪深两市半日成交额高达1.57万亿，较上个交易日放量591亿。 在高成交额与高杠杆的背景下，资金加速流入小盘的趋势不减。 数据显示，年内宽基ETF涨幅NO.1的中证2000增强ETF（159552），今天上午微调期间再度强势"吸金"将近5000万。最近10个交易日内，ETF有8天保持净 流入，区间强势吸金4.9亿元，年初至今规模增加超11.8亿！ | 中证2000增强ETF | | 159552 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2.015 | -0.010 -0.49% 1 0 + | | | SZSE CNY 11:30:00 不市 | | | | 净值走势 | 招商中证2000增强策略ETF | | | 交生 | 54.64% 120日 34.07% | | | 5日 | 4.78% 250日 109.24% | | | 20日 | 11.88% 52周高 | 2.03 | | 60日 | 29.58% 52周低 | 0.93 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and considerations of identifying "mainline sectors" during a bull market, suggesting that broad-based indices may be a more pragmatic choice for most investors [4][6][18]. Group 1: Mainline Investment Temptation and Identification Challenges - In bull markets, mainline sectors often yield significant excess returns, with data showing that in 2020, the top three industry indices had returns of 190.96%, 138.41%, and 135.19%, while the CSI 300 index only rose by about 27.21% [6][7]. - The difficulty of accurately identifying mainline sectors beforehand is highlighted, as many investors may only realize what the mainline was after the market has moved [8][10]. Group 2: Real Obstacles in Mainline Identification - Three main obstacles to identifying mainline sectors are discussed: 1. Extreme internal differentiation within industries complicates stock selection, as seen in the 2025 market where the ground equipment sector had a 103.73% annual increase, but individual stocks within the sector varied significantly in performance [10]. 2. The acceleration of valuation bubbles poses greater risks than broad indices, as high valuations can lead to significant corrections if industry progress does not meet expectations [10][11]. 3. Behavioral biases can interfere with investment discipline, leading to premature profit-taking or overconfidence, which can result in substantial losses [11]. Group 3: Unique Value of Broad-Based Indices - Broad-based indices offer unique advantages in risk diversification, stable returns, and operational convenience. They provide a better risk-return ratio through cross-industry and cross-market capitalization allocation [12][13]. - Historical data shows that broad-based indices like the CSI 300 had significantly lower maximum drawdowns compared to industry indices during bull and bear markets [13][15]. - The operational convenience of broad-based indices is enhanced by a well-established ecosystem of investment tools, such as ETFs, which lower the barriers for non-professional investors [16]. Group 4: Conclusion and Strategy - The article concludes that while broad-based indices may not outperform leading mainline sectors, they are often a better choice for ordinary investors due to their ability to mitigate emotional trading and provide stable returns [18][19]. - A suggested investment strategy for ordinary investors is the "core-satellite" approach, allocating 60%-80% of the portfolio to broad-based ETFs to capture market beta, while using 20%-40% for selective participation in mainline sectors to manage risk exposure [19].

Group 1 - The A-share market indices have recently reached new highs, leading to increased attention on ETFs, with trading volumes exceeding 400 billion yuan on several days [1] - The overall ETF market saw significant trading activity, with daily trading volumes of 410.5 billion yuan, 435.1 billion yuan, and nearly 493 billion yuan over three consecutive days [1] - A total of 15 broad-based ETFs had average daily trading volumes exceeding 1 billion yuan during this period, with notable performances from specific ETFs like Huaxia's STAR Market 50 ETF and the CSI A500 ETF [1] Group 2 - The average return of funds this year is 10.44%, while ETFs have performed better with an average return of 15.51%, with several ETFs exceeding 100% returns [2] - Analysts suggest a "core-satellite" strategy for asset allocation, where broad-based index funds serve as the main investment, while specific industry index funds are allocated as satellite positions [2] - The growth of stock ETFs contrasts with active equity funds, highlighting the diverse applications of ETFs in asset allocation and strategy [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - In the low - interest - rate era, "extending duration" and "controlling costs" are two key strategies for bond investment. The public - offering bond funds are shifting from "credit downgrading" to "duration management", and the low - cost advantage of bond - fund indexation is prominent [1][2]. - Long - duration index bond funds are the best combination of "high duration" and "low cost". Different types of long - duration index bond funds have different risk - return characteristics, and investors can choose according to their needs [3]. - Ten - year Treasury bond ETFs are effective "offensive - and - defensive" tools for enhancing portfolio returns, and are also suitable for short - term trading and rotation strategies [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Low - Interest - Rate Era: "Extending Duration" and "Controlling Costs" as Two Key Strategies - Since early 2014, domestic interest rates have been in a downward cycle, and the upward elasticity of interest rates has weakened. From 2015 to 2025, the market has experienced five rounds of local government debt resolution, gradually flattening the credit spread [1][12][13]. - Facing the "low - interest - rate + low - spread" environment, public - offering bond funds are shifting from "credit downgrading" to "duration management". The average allocation ratio of medium - and long - term bond funds to credit bonds has dropped from 41% in 2020 to 30% at the end of Q1 2025, while the acceptance of portfolio duration is increasing [1][20][21]. - Referring to overseas experience, in a low - interest - rate environment, Japanese public - offering bond funds have increased their allocation to long - term bonds. In terms of risk - return ratio, the cost - effectiveness of long - duration strategies has become prominent since 2021 [27][32]. - Passive index - type bond funds have a cost - saving advantage of about 11 - 15bp per year compared with actively managed products, which is a relatively certain "hidden alpha" for investors [2][33]. 3.2 Long - Duration Index Bond Funds: The Best Combination of "High Duration" and "Low Cost" 3.2.1 Choices of Long - Duration Index Tools - Mainstream long - duration index bond funds are divided into three categories: local government bonds, Treasury bonds, and policy - financial bonds, and can be further divided into "long - term tools" (7 - 10 years and 10 years) and "ultra - long - term tools" (30 years) [3][48]. - Among them, the 10 - year index - type bond funds mainly hold bonds with a remaining term of 7 - 10 years, similar to 7 - 10 - year products. The 7 - 10 - year policy - financial bond index funds are the most popular, while the local bond index funds are scarce [48][49]. 3.2.2 Differences in the Long - Duration Index Toolbox - From the duration dimension, the 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds have significant differences in risk - return characteristics, corresponding to the "ballast" and "offensive spear" roles respectively. The 10 - year Treasury bond is suitable for stable long - term investment, while the 30 - year Treasury bond is suitable for aggressive investors [54]. - From the bond type dimension, 7 - 10 - year policy - financial bonds are similar to Treasury bonds, while local bonds have unique characteristics. Although the long - term performance of 7 - 10 - year local bonds is good, investors may need more patience. The investment value of Treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds is converging [55][56][61]. 3.3 Investment Strategies for Long - Duration Index Bond Funds 3.3.1 Allocation: Enhancing Portfolio Returns, "Offensive and Defensive" - Ten - year Treasury bond ETFs are effective "offensive - and - defensive" tools for enhancing portfolio returns. In the interest - rate downward cycle, they have excellent return - capturing ability, such as the 9.02% annual return of Cathay Shanghai Stock Exchange 10 - Year Treasury Bond ETF in 2024 [7][65]. 3.3.2 Trading: Capturing Band - Trading Returns from "Point - Type Market Conditions" - Long - duration index products represented by ten - year Treasury bond ETFs have high liquidity and trading convenience, and are suitable for capturing band - trading returns from "point - type market conditions" in the bond market, such as the rapid decline and rebound of the 10 - year Treasury bond yield from November 2024 to January 2025 [7]. 3.3.3 Important Tools in Rotation Strategies - A "core - satellite" strategy is proposed, using long - duration interest - rate bond ETFs as the core "base" for pure - bond rotation, and tactically adjusting the satellite positions according to short - term market conditions. Back - testing shows that the improved rotation strategy can enhance returns and has better risk - adjusted returns [7][77][80].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balanced investment strategy, highlighting that a bullish market does not guarantee profits and cautioning against the tendency to chase high returns without proper risk assessment [2][3][5]. Market Analysis - The A-share market has shown volatility, with some sectors becoming overheated, leading to increased market fluctuations [4]. - The article warns that a bullish sentiment can lead to losses if investors buy in at high prices without proper analysis [3][5]. Investment Strategy - It is crucial to break free from a bearish mindset and avoid being overly conservative, which can result in missed opportunities for excess returns [5]. - Investors should focus on asset allocation and avoid concentrating all funds in equity funds to maintain a stable mindset [14]. Debt Fund Insights - Debt funds should not be viewed merely as low-yield investments; they serve as a safety net and can reduce portfolio volatility during market downturns [6][8][9]. - Debt funds provide liquidity, allowing investors to redeem funds when cash is needed [10]. Risk Management - The core of investment is not about missing opportunities but rather about having the capability to seize them [11]. - Investors are advised to assess their cash flow and ensure that investments are made with "idle money" to maintain a stable mindset [17][18]. Investment Recommendations - Conservative investors may consider shifting from pure debt to a mix of primary and secondary debt or fixed income products, while those with higher risk tolerance can adjust their portfolios moderately [19]. - It is recommended to buy on dips and to avoid chasing high prices, as no market rises indefinitely without adjustments [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is exhibiting significant structural characteristics, with increased volatility and accelerated sector rotation, while the focus is expected to gradually shift towards core assets in June [1][2]. Group 1: Market Overview - The three major stock indices in May showed an overall increase, but market volatility has intensified [1]. - Analysts suggest that the market may continue to experience fluctuations, and a core-satellite strategy is recommended for investors to balance stability and growth [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The recommended strategy involves focusing on two leading ETFs: the CSI A500 ETF (563800) as the "core" and the Sci-Tech 50 ETF (588060) as the "satellite," which allows for risk diversification while enhancing return potential [1][2]. - This strategy is suitable for three types of investors: long-term investors seeking core asset opportunities, those wanting to reduce single-style exposure risks, and ordinary investors looking for efficient market beta exposure [1]. Group 3: ETF Performance - The CSI A500 ETF tracks the CSI A500 Index, which includes leading companies across various industries, achieving a one-year annualized return of 7.53% as of the end of May, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.45% [2]. - The Sci-Tech 50 ETF focuses on "hard technology" leaders, with significant R&D investment among its constituents, benefiting from domestic substitution and policy support, indicating long-term growth potential [2]. Group 4: Operational Recommendations - Investors are advised to adopt a systematic investment approach, such as dollar-cost averaging, and to periodically rebalance their portfolios [2]. - It is recommended to hold investments for at least one year and adjust asset allocation based on individual risk tolerance and expected returns [2].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of strategic planning in both warfare and investment, highlighting that a well-thought-out strategy is crucial for success in volatile markets [1] - It introduces six common ETF investment strategies, aiming to help investors find suitable approaches for their investment goals [1] Long-term Strategies - **Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA)**: This strategy involves investing a fixed amount at regular intervals, which helps to lower the average cost per share over time, especially during market downturns [1][3] - **Grid Trading Strategy**: This method utilizes market price fluctuations by setting predefined buy and sell price points, allowing investors to buy low and sell high [4][6] - **Pyramid Strategy**: This involves adjusting investment amounts based on price movements, buying more when prices are low and less when prices are high, requiring accurate market judgment [10][11] Short-term Strategies - **Core-Satellite Strategy**: This approach divides investments into a core position, typically in broad market ETFs, and satellite positions in sector-specific ETFs to capture excess returns [11] - **Swing Trading Strategy**: This strategy focuses on capitalizing on short-term market fluctuations, suitable for experienced investors who can quickly adapt to market changes [12] - **Sector Rotation Strategy**: This involves switching investments between different sectors based on market signals, aiming to maximize returns while minimizing systemic risks [13] Conclusion - The article concludes that there are various ETF investment strategies, and no single strategy is superior. Investors should analyze their goals, risk tolerance, and market conditions to develop a flexible investment approach [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the positive outcome of the China-US Geneva trade negotiations, which exceeded market expectations, while acknowledging ongoing uncertainties in tariff discussions [1] - The market has shown a double V-shaped recovery over the past five months, with fixed income plus funds gradually emerging from a low point after facing adjustment pressures [1] - The company aims to provide high-value investment tools that prioritize investor demands for returns and drawdowns, focusing on absolute returns through a solid research and investment approach [1] Group 2 - The investment strategy involves a "core-satellite" approach, maintaining a low valuation, balanced, and diversified portfolio, with a focus on stable core holdings and flexible satellite positions [2] - Strict stock selection criteria are applied, with collaboration among specialized teams to minimize significant losses, ensuring a relatively stable portfolio style [2] - The Tianhong Ankang Yiyang fund has achieved an average annualized return of over 6% since its inception, demonstrating resilience in both bull and bear markets [2][4] Group 3 - Looking ahead, the long-term growth model of the Chinese economy is shifting from export and investment-driven to consumption-driven, necessitating the activation of domestic demand for new growth momentum [7] - The company will combine macroeconomic environment selection with micro-level company quality assessment, remaining cautious of high valuation sectors while seeking attractive investment opportunities [7] - A commitment to high-quality research and monitoring of positive economic signals is emphasized to create value for investors while adhering to the fixed income plus investment baseline [7] Group 4 - The Tianhong Ankang Yiyang Mixed Securities Investment Fund-A has shown consistent performance since its establishment, with annual returns ranging from -2.91% to 18.89% over the years [8] - The Tianhong Ankang Yiyang Mixed Securities Investment Fund-C, established in 2020, has also demonstrated varying performance, with a recent one-year return of 7.59% compared to its benchmark [8]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of investment strategies to achieve financial goals, specifically targeting a tenfold increase from an initial capital of 100,000 to 1,000,000 over ten years [1] - It suggests that relying solely on hard work may not be sufficient to reach financial milestones, and that investing can facilitate wealth accumulation more effectively [1] - The article introduces a specific investment strategy developed by DeepSeek, focusing on a diversified fund portfolio with a maximum of ten funds and a risk tolerance for a 20% drawdown [1][2] Group 2 - The operational strategy includes annual adjustments to the asset allocation, where if any asset class exceeds its target allocation by 5%, a portion is sold and reinvested into underweighted assets like bonds or gold [3] - In extreme market conditions, if the overall portfolio approaches a 20% drawdown, the strategy advises reducing high-volatility assets (such as technology and pharmaceuticals) and increasing holdings in bonds or gold [3] - The article also mentions a core-satellite strategy, suggesting specific funds for consideration, including those focused on global growth and consumption, as well as bond and gold ETFs [4][5]