蔡彤娟（中国人民大学重阳金融研究院副院长、研究员） 智能产品成为年货新宠。在625亿元超长期特别国债支持消费品以旧换新政策带动下，截至2月23日， 2026年消费品以旧换新惠及3112.7万人次，带动销售额2070.3亿元。汽车以旧换新61.2万辆，带动新车 销售额1005.3亿元。商务大数据显示，今年春节假期，重点平台智能眼镜、具身智能机器人销售额较去 年春节假期分别增长47.3%和32.7%，节水卫浴器具、有机食品分别增长23.2%和26.5%。 2026年马年春节，中国消费市场呈现出"马力全开"的强劲态势。作为"史上最长春节假期"（除夕前一天 即开始放假，共9天），叠加多项促消费政策持续发力，居民消费意愿明显增强，消费结构持续优化， 展现出从物质满足向精神体验、从传统实物向智能健康、从单一购物向多元场景转变的鲜明特征。 2026年春节消费热度从支付数据可见一斑。据中国人民银行披露，除夕当天（2月16日）银联、网联两 大支付清算平台共处理支付交易49.31亿笔，较2025年除夕同比增长21.64%。这一增速显著高于2026年1 月移动支付商品消费交易笔数16.8%的同比增幅，表明长假效应极大激发了即时消费 ...

发布时间：2026-02-26 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《企业利润被动收缩趋势持续，投资 止跌企稳仍需政策呵护》 - 2026.02.02 宏观研究 春节假期宏观大事分析 核心观点 （1）2026 年春节假期是近年来最长假期，通过跟踪春假假期数 据可知，近年春假长假居民出行需求旺盛，"反向团圆"成为新亮点； 全国文旅市场景气度上升，2026 年春节假期，全国国内旅游市场迎来 历史性爆发，值得注意的是，部分省市文旅市场呈现"量增价弱"现 象；在消费方面，商品消费品质升级，服务消费多元发展，体验型消 费成为主流；电影票房承压，触及近五年低点，且量价齐跌，供需错 配或是主要原因。 （2）美国关税政策再起波澜，美国最高法院裁决对等关税和芬 太尼关税违宪，但特朗普援引 122 条款新增 10%关税，后将关税税率 升至 15%，反映美国特朗普政府主导全球贸易秩序的底层逻辑并未发 生变化。 仅从当 ...

□ 孟亚生 今年春节9天超长假期点燃消费热情，更折射出消费市场的深刻变革。商务部监测数据显示，今年年货 市场，传统的烟酒糖茶"老三样"逐渐淡出核心，取而代之的是绿色、智能、健康类产品"新三样"。仅假 期前两天，重点平台智能穿戴设备销售额同比增长1.3倍，智能血压仪、血糖仪销售额增长超60%，有 机食品销售额增长52%。 过去，春节消费重人情、讲排场、比面子，烟酒茶糖、高档礼盒占据主流。如今，理性消费、品质消 费、悦己消费成为主流选择，人们更愿意为健康、舒适、便捷与情绪价值付费。绿色低碳代表着生活态 度，智能科技代表着效率提升，健康守护代表着深切关怀，这一转变传递出消费理念全面升级的信号。 "新三样"走俏，还传递出政策引导与市场活力必须同频共振的信号。近年来，绿色消费、智能消费得到 政策有力支持，以旧换新政策惠及数千万人次；经营主体丰富产品供给，满足多元需求。政策精准发力 与市场自发活力相结合，既激活了节日消费潜力，也为长期消费升级奠定基础。可以预见，"新三样"不 仅是春节的消费热点，更将成为拉动内需、推动经济高质量发展的新引擎。 春节消费"新三样"的走俏，不仅勾勒出消费升级的新走向，更为经营主体、产业发展与经 ...

2026年春节消费市场出现新变化，这一点在购年货环节表现得尤为明显。据商务部监测数据，春节假期 前两天，各地年味浓郁，消费市场购销两旺。其中，绿色、智能、健康类产品销售增速显著，成为今年 春节年货市场的"新三样"。除夕前一天，重点平台智能穿戴设备销售额增长1.3倍，智能血压仪、血糖 仪增长超60%，有机食品增长52%。 每年春节媒体都会提及各种各样的消费数据，有的数据往往很可观，比如出行人数、旅游收入等，不 过，由于往年基数本来就大，这些数据只能反映消费市场的"温度"。而有的数据看似不起眼，却预示了 某种新趋势，考虑到往年基数较小，这种趋势就显得尤为明显，非常值得关注。 媒体援引的"什么值得买"电商运营中心负责人张宇昂的观点就很有代表性，其提到，"从餐桌美食，到 居家健康与生活好物，每一件商品都承载着对美好生活的追求与情感寄托。消费者在挑选中不仅满足实 用需求，更表达个性、关照家人，也让年味在多元化中得以延展。"春节消费市场每年都有新特点，背 后隐藏的商业机会，以及呈现的中国经济结构变化，非常值得重视。 即便是春节旅游，也要玩出新花样，所谓"预判别人的预判"，去哪里、什么时间去，都得有讲究，这样 才能获得更好 ...

Group 1 - The demand for green, smart, and health-related consumer products surged during the Spring Festival, with sales of smart wearable devices increasing by 130%, smart blood pressure monitors and blood glucose meters rising over 60%, and organic food sales growing by 52% [1] - The second day of the Spring Festival holiday saw a significant increase in ice and snow tourism consumption, which grew by 120%, while warm-weather travel increased by 68% [1] - The China Automobile Dealers Association reported that in January 2026, the national used car market transaction volume reached 1.7292 million units, a year-on-year increase of 18.33%, with a transaction value of 110.612 billion yuan [1] - The total box office for the 2026 Spring Festival period exceeded 2.4 billion yuan as of February 19 [1] - The China Export-Import Bank reported that as of the end of January 2026, the balance of loans for the Belt and Road Initiative exceeded 2 trillion yuan, covering over 130 countries [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Federal Reserve's January meeting minutes revealed a division among policymakers regarding future interest rate directions, with discussions about the possibility of both rate hikes and cuts depending on inflation trends [1] - The U.S. National Security Advisor discussed military deployments in the Middle East concerning Iran, indicating a strategic focus on the region [1] - Japan's exports to the U.S. fell for the second consecutive month in January due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies, with a year-on-year decline of 5% to 1.46 trillion yen [2]

Group 1 - Strong demand for green, smart, and healthy consumption during the Spring Festival holiday, with sales of smart wearable devices increasing by 130%, smart blood pressure monitors and blood glucose meters up over 60%, and organic food sales rising by 52% [3] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's January meeting minutes revealed significant divisions among decision-makers regarding future interest rate directions, with some members discussing the possibility of rate hikes if inflation remains above 2% [3] - High-profile political changes in Japan as Fumio Kishida was confirmed as the new Prime Minister, with expectations to focus on accelerating budget reviews and implementing the U.S.-Japan trade agreement [3] Group 2 - The Spring Festival saw a booming market for holiday consumption and tourism services, prompting regulatory measures to stabilize market prices in various sectors [4] - The Ru Hua Group's founder has been active in the A-share market, investing approximately 400 million yuan in Shen Kai Co. and Su Yan Jing Shen, and acquiring a 5% stake in Wai Jin Ke for 161 million yuan [5] - The appointment of a "post-00s" executive at Xiao Fang Pharmaceutical, with Fang Jing An nominated as a non-independent director candidate, highlights a generational shift in leadership [5] Group 3 - Barclays Bank's report indicates that the AI and robotics market is expected to grow to a trillion-dollar scale by 2035, marking it as one of the most promising investment themes for the next decade [7] - The global semiconductor industry is projected to reach a historical high of $975 billion by 2026, driven by the robust development of AI infrastructure [9] - The global humanoid robot market is anticipated to see significant growth by 2026, with an expected shipment of 30,000 units and China's market size surpassing 8.5 billion yuan [10]

Group 1 - Strong demand for green, smart, and healthy consumption during the Spring Festival holiday, with sales of smart wearable devices increasing by 130%, smart blood pressure monitors and blood glucose meters up over 60%, and organic food sales rising by 52% [1] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's January meeting minutes reveal significant divisions among decision-makers regarding future interest rate directions, with some members discussing the possibility of rate hikes if inflation remains above 2% [1] - High-profile political changes in Japan as Fumio Kishida is confirmed as the new Prime Minister, with expectations to focus on accelerating budget reviews and implementing the U.S.-Japan trade agreement [1] Group 2 - The Spring Festival holiday sees a booming market for holiday consumption and tourism services, with regulatory measures in place to stabilize prices in accommodation, dining, and other sectors [2] - Despite not being listed on the capital market, the founder of Lu Hua Group has been active in the A-share market, investing approximately 400 million yuan and 1 billion yuan in recent private placements [2] - The appointment of a "post-00" executive at Xiao Fang Pharmaceutical, with the nomination of a 24-year-old as a non-independent director, highlights a generational shift in corporate leadership [2] Group 3 - The China Real Estate Market Outlook report predicts a 6.2% year-on-year decline in new residential sales area in 2026, with a narrowing decline compared to 2025 [3] - Deloitte forecasts a 26% growth in the global semiconductor industry by 2026, reaching a record high of $975 billion, driven by the development of AI infrastructure [3] Group 4 - Barclays Bank reports that the AI and robotics market is expected to grow to a trillion-dollar scale by 2035, marking it as a key investment theme for the next decade [5] - UBS predicts that 2026 will be a critical turning point for humanoid robots, with global shipments expected to reach 30,000 units and the Chinese market surpassing 8.5 billion yuan [5] - The AI boom is driving unprecedented electricity demand, with gas turbine manufacturers experiencing a backlog of orders extending to 2030 [5] Group 5 - The global AI unicorn Anthropic anticipates paying $80 billion in sales shares to cloud service providers by 2029, a significant increase from $1.3 million in 2024 [7] - Bayer proposes a $7.25 billion settlement in the U.S. related to its flagship herbicide Roundup, addressing over 200,000 cancer-related lawsuits [7] - Volkswagen's marine engine and heat pump production division, Everllence, is attracting interest from top private equity firms, with a potential valuation between €5 billion and €6 billion [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in consumer spending and demand for green, smart, and healthy products during the pre-Spring Festival period, indicating a robust recovery in the retail and catering sectors [1][3][5] Group 2 - Data from the Ministry of Commerce shows that the average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises increased by 10.6% compared to the same period before the Spring Festival in 2025 [1] - On February 15, foot traffic and sales in 78 monitored pedestrian streets increased by 23.2% and 33.2% respectively compared to the first day of the previous year's holiday [1] - The "trade-in" program has effectively stimulated consumer demand, benefiting 27.56 million people and generating sales of 193.09 billion yuan, with 607,000 cars traded in, leading to new car sales of 99.56 billion yuan [3] - Sales of smart wearable devices on key platforms surged by 130%, with smart blood pressure monitors and blood glucose meters increasing by over 60%, and organic food sales rising by 52% [3] - In the service consumption sector, reservations for New Year's Eve dinners increased by 80.7%, hotel accommodation transactions rose by 32.7%, car rental orders grew by 54%, and spending on ice and snow tourism increased by 120%, while winter vacation spending rose by 68% [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in sales of health-related products, particularly smart blood glucose meters, during the Spring Festival period, indicating a growing consumer demand for health and wellness products [1] - On February 15, sales of smart wearable devices on key platforms surged by 130%, with smart blood pressure and blood glucose meters experiencing over 60% growth, and organic food sales increasing by 52% [1] - Service consumption also saw notable growth, with year-end dinner reservations increasing by 80.7%, hotel accommodation transaction value rising by 32.7%, car rental orders growing by 54%, and winter tourism consumption increasing by 68% [1]

据商务部消息，春节假期前两天，各地年味浓厚，购销两旺，其中绿色、智能、健康类消费需求旺盛。 商务大数据显示，2月15日，重点平台智能穿戴设备销售额增长1.3倍，智能血压仪、血糖仪增长超 60%，有机食品增长52%。服务消费方面，2月15日，重点平台年夜饭预订量增长80.7%，酒店住宿交易 额增长32.7%，租车订单量增长54%，冰雪游消费增长1.2倍，避寒游消费增长68%。（央视财经） ...