摘要：背后至少压着"三座大山"（欢迎关注闺蜜财经） 在蜜妹看来，任何一次市场的剧烈波动都不是单一因素造成的，而是宏观、中观、微观层面多重因素共 振的结果。今天的局面的形成，背后至少压着"三座大山"。 第一座山：宏观预期的"倒春寒"。 尽管市场此前对经济持续复苏抱有较高期待，但近期披露的一系列宏观信息，蜜妹不便多说，反正就是 你懂的。 撰文｜蜜妹 这是@闺蜜财经的第1730篇原创 一夜回到解放前。 就在投资者逐渐适应"4000点成为新常态"之际，中国股市迎来了一场猝不及防的全面抛售。 2025年11月21日，三大指数集体重挫，创业板指跌超4%，5000+只个股飘绿，仅少数板块侥幸逃生。上 证指数报收3834.89点。 更值得警惕的是，沪深两市成交额放量至近2万亿元，较前一交易日激增2000亿元——这种"放量大 跌"的组合，既不同于缩量调整的谨慎观望，也区别于恐慌性杀跌的流动性枯竭，背后折射出复杂的市 场博弈逻辑。 就在昨日（11月20日），央行公布了最新的贷款市场报价利率（LPR），1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上 LPR为3.5%，二者均与上月持平。 | | | Paul THE PEOPLE'S BANK ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent market fluctuation around the 4000-point mark is seen as a potential starting point for a long-term upward trend rather than a peak, contrasting with the market conditions of 2015 [3][4]. Market Valuation - The current valuation of the CSI 300 index is at a price-to-book ratio of 1.5 times, significantly lower than the 2.5 times seen in 2015, indicating less inflated valuations and more room for growth [3]. - The total market capitalization relative to GDP is currently at 85%, compared to 115% in 2015, suggesting a healthier market environment [3]. Market Behavior - The market has experienced a strong upward trend for nearly 150 trading days since April 7, with only minor fluctuations, indicating a robust market despite the recent volatility around the 4000-point level [3]. - Short-term adjustments in a long-term bull market are normal and can be beneficial, allowing for a more stable market environment [3][4]. Investment Strategy - Long-term investors are encouraged to remain focused on their strategies and not be swayed by short-term market fluctuations, as these can create opportunities for better entry points during corrections [4]. - The current market conditions present a chance to invest in quality stocks with reasonable valuations and strong earnings support, especially if a market correction occurs [4].

Group 1 - The A-share market has experienced a rapid rise in recent months, leading to a temporary adjustment, which raises questions about potential risks and market signals [2][4] - Healthy market conditions require rhythmic fluctuations rather than a one-sided surge; excessive rapid increases can lead to more severe declines [6][7] - Historical patterns indicate that every bull market ends with overheating emotions, high valuations, and rapid price increases, suggesting that early and moderate adjustments can prolong market vitality [7][11] Group 2 - The current stage of A-shares shows high turnover rates, indicating overheated short-term sentiment, with the index at a high valuation of approximately 14 times earnings, at the 81st percentile [11][18] - Future market movements could take three forms: a brief adjustment followed by a rise, a deeper decline of around 10%, or a sideways consolidation for one to two months [13][14][15] - The economic fundamentals will be crucial in determining the longevity of the bull market; if economic conditions improve, the bull market may continue, but if they remain weak, valuations will need to adjust [18] Group 3 - The Hong Kong stock market is beginning to show independent trends, with the Hang Seng Index reaching new highs, diverging from A-shares [19] - Unique advantages of Hong Kong include its recognized international status, strong performance of major companies like Tencent and Alibaba, and a return to reasonable valuations, suggesting a potential for stronger performance compared to A-shares [19] - The focus should be on position management during high-risk periods, with strategies to reduce exposure during volatility and increase positions when valuations are more attractive [20]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective rise on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.13% closing at 3812.22 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.38% at 12557.68 points, and the ChiNext Index up 1.27% at 2904.27 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 19,781 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,404 billion yuan compared to Tuesday [1] - Over 2,400 stocks rose, with more than 60 stocks hitting the daily limit [1] Market Dynamics - The market has shown a mild fluctuation characteristic, continuing the recent oscillation trend, with trading volume dropping below 20 trillion yuan, indicating a slight cooling of market enthusiasm [1] - Since the adjustment at the end of August, the market has been in a tug-of-war phase, characterized by weak funding conditions [1] - Margin trading balances have reached a historical high since 2016, indicating ongoing market participation enthusiasm, while the average guarantee ratio has decreased, suggesting increased leverage and reduced safety margins for investors [1] Future Outlook - The potential for breaking the current market deadlock may hinge on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the performance of the brokerage sector [2] - The market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a probability of 89%, which historically benefits global asset performance due to liquidity expansion [2] - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from domestic policy support and capital market reforms, with a shift of household savings towards the capital market providing a continuous source of incremental funds [2] Market Sentiment - The current market is undergoing a typical adjustment phase in a bull market, with the core logic of the bull market remaining unchanged [3] - Although all three major indices closed in the green, the trading volume has further shrunk, indicating a gradual decline in buying interest [3] - Without new incremental funds, it may be challenging to break through previous highs, and the market is likely to continue in a range-bound structure [3] - The recent months of upward movement in indices suggest a need for correction, and the high-level consolidation may facilitate the accumulation of shares, maintaining a positive outlook for future market trends [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article shares five lessons learned from past market downturns, emphasizing the importance of patience, strategic investment, and emotional control during volatile periods [1]. Group 1: Lessons from Market Downturns - In a bull market, 80% of returns come from 20% of the time, indicating that missing the best days can significantly reduce annual returns [4]. - A significant market drop can present buying opportunities; for instance, a 41% profit was achieved by investing during a market panic [9]. - The best approach to market fluctuations is to avoid frequent trading and instead adopt a long-term perspective, as evidenced by better performance during periods of less active management [11]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Maintaining a portion of stable assets (at least 20%) is crucial to weathering market downturns and preparing for future opportunities [14]. - The article suggests that successful investments often begin during severe market declines, highlighting the importance of controlling emotions rather than attempting to predict market movements [14][15].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant decline on September 4, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 1.25%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.83%, the ChiNext Index by 4.25%, and the STAR 50 Index falling over 6% [2][12] - A total of 2,297 stocks rose, 43 stocks hit the daily limit up, while 2,990 stocks declined [3] Sector Performance - Retail and food consumption stocks saw gains, with companies like Guoguang Chain and Anji Food hitting the daily limit up [5] - Financial stocks, including brokers and banks, were active in the market, with Pacific Securities hitting the daily limit up and Agricultural Bank of China reaching a new high [7] Notable Stock Movements - The semiconductor and computing power sectors faced substantial declines, with stocks like Cambridge Technology and Zhongji Xuchuang hitting the daily limit down, and others dropping over 10% [9][10] - Specific stocks in the semiconductor sector, such as Xinyi Technology and Cambrian Technology, saw declines exceeding 10% [11] Analyst Insights - Analysts noted that the recent market adjustment was due to profit-taking after a rapid rise, compounded by misleading rumors, but maintained a positive outlook for the Chinese market's long-term growth [12] - Historical patterns suggest that such adjustments are common in bull markets, typically lasting 2-3 trading days, with expectations for new highs following the correction [12]

Market Overview - On September 4, A-shares experienced a significant decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 1.25%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.83%, the ChiNext Index by 4.25%, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index falling over 6% [1][9]. Market Performance - A total of 2,297 stocks rose, while 2,990 stocks fell, with 43 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 47 stocks hitting the daily limit down [1][3]. - The total trading volume reached 25,818.93 billion, with a total trading amount of 162,553.5 million [3]. Sector Analysis - Consumer stocks, including retail and food sectors, saw gains, with several stocks like Guoguang Chain and Anji Food hitting the daily limit up [3]. - In contrast, semiconductor and computing-related stocks faced substantial declines, with many stocks dropping over 10%, including Cambridge Technology and Zhongji Xuchuang [5][6][7]. Analyst Insights - Analysts attribute the market's sharp adjustment to the rapid previous gains, leading to profit-taking pressures, compounded by misleading rumors [9]. - Despite the downturn, analysts maintain a positive outlook on the Chinese market, citing sustainable upward momentum and supportive regulatory measures from the China Securities Regulatory Commission [9]. - Historical patterns suggest that such adjustments are common in bull markets, typically lasting 2-3 trading days, with expectations of new highs following the correction [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article draws parallels between the current market conditions and the historical "5.19" rally in 1999, suggesting that the current market may also experience significant growth driven by structural economic transformations in China [5][10]. Historical Context - The A-share market experienced a dramatic rise of over 70% within a month and a half in 1999, reaching a ten-year high of over 1700 points before entering a correction phase [1][3]. - The 1999 market was characterized by a transition from traditional state-owned enterprises to more competitive emerging sectors, supported by government policies aimed at economic transformation [5][7]. Market Dynamics - The article emphasizes the importance of identifying sectors that are early movers in a market rally, with 1999's internet technology stocks serving as a prime example. For 2025, it suggests that technology stocks and innovative pharmaceutical stocks may play a similar role [4][10]. - Historical adjustments in the market have led to valuation compressions, making stocks more attractive for investment. For instance, the A-share index fell from a high of 3700 points in early 2021 to around 2680 points, a decline of nearly 30% [7][8]. Valuation Insights - As of August 27, 2025, the average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 15.5 times, while for Hong Kong's main board, it was 14.3 times, both of which are considered historically low [8][9]. Sector Focus - The article highlights that the current economic transformation will favor specific industries, particularly technology and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are seen as key drivers for sustainable economic growth [10][12]. - The performance of Hong Kong technology stocks has shown significant resilience and independence, with notable excess returns compared to the broader market over the past 20 years [12][14]. Investment Tools - The emergence of various ETFs has provided investors with convenient tools for investment allocation. For example, the Southern ETF (code: 159269) focuses on leading technology stocks in Hong Kong, covering sectors such as communications, internet, and pharmaceuticals [15][16]. - The article also points out the strong performance of Hong Kong innovative pharmaceutical funds, which have shown substantial returns, making them attractive investment options during market adjustments [18][19].