Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Short - term supply of coking coal and coke is limited, making their prices prone to rise and hard to fall; the macro sentiment for glass and soda ash is positive, with soda ash prices rising significantly; steel prices are continuously rebounding, and ferroalloys are oscillating and consolidating [1][3] - Glass prices are expected to oscillate, and soda ash prices are also expected to oscillate; silicon manganese and silicon iron prices are expected to maintain an oscillating trend [2][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The glass futures market showed a strong and oscillating trend yesterday. In the spot market, downstream procurement sentiment was cautious, with demand mainly for immediate needs [1] - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures market rose significantly yesterday. In the spot market, downstream transactions were stable, with a wait - and - see attitude [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: As market sentiment subsided, glass pricing returned to its fundamental logic. Currently, glass supply has not been effectively cleared, speculative demand has weakened, supply - demand remains relatively loose, and spot prices have declined. The previous premium in the futures market provided good opportunities for spot - futures arbitrage, and the rapid increase in registered glass warehouse receipts suppressed the price of the 09 contract. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - policies on glass supply and demand [1] - Soda Ash: The market is again worried that stricter environmental inspections in Qinghai will affect local soda ash production capacity elimination. Since Qinghai has a large proportion of soda ash production capacity, if affected, it will improve the supply - demand imbalance to some extent. Currently, soda ash production is continuously increasing with further growth expected, while consumption may weaken further, and inventory growth pressure is high. Therefore, soda ash prices are easily stimulated by news in the short term, but long - term supply - demand contradictions will still suppress prices [1] Strategy - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating [2] Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron Market Analysis - Silicon Manganese: As steel prices continued to rebound, the silicon manganese futures market oscillated. In the spot market, the final pricing of mainstream steel procurement is still under negotiation. The price of 6517 silicon manganese in the northern market is 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it is 5820 - 5920 yuan/ton [3] - Silicon Iron: The silicon iron futures market oscillated and consolidated yesterday. In the spot market, the market is waiting for HBIS's pricing. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron natural lumps in the main production areas is 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron is 5750 - 5900 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicon Manganese: As market sentiment stabilized, the futures market returned to the fundamentals of the commodity. Currently, silicon manganese production and demand have slightly increased, and manufacturers' inventory has decreased month - on - month, being at a medium level compared to the same period. The quotation of manganese ore to China has slightly increased, causing the cost of silicon manganese to rise slightly, which supports the spot price. The 09 contract still has a certain discount, which also supports the futures price. However, considering the continuous increase in manganese ore port inventory, the cost support is weak, and the silicon manganese industry has an obvious supply surplus. A certain degree of loss is needed to suppress production release. It is expected that silicon manganese prices will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to manganese ore cost support, silicon manganese inventory, and manganese ore shipments in the future [3] - Silicon Iron: Currently, silicon iron production has rapidly increased, demand has slightly increased, and manufacturers' inventory has increased month - on - month, being at a relatively high level compared to the same period. The increase in chemical coke prices has driven up the cost of silicon iron, which supports the spot price. However, considering that the futures market is slightly at a premium, and the silicon iron industry has an obvious supply surplus, a certain degree of loss is needed to suppress production release. It is expected that silicon iron prices will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to cost support and the impact of industrial policies on the black sector in the future [4] Strategy - Silicon Manganese: Oscillating [5] - Silicon Iron: Oscillating [5]

品种观点 股指期货 - 6月24日A股三大指数集体走强，沪指涨1.15%收报3420.57点，深证成指涨1.68%收报10217.63点，创业板指涨2.30%收报2064.13点，沪深两市成交额达14146亿，较昨日大幅放量2920亿 [1] 焦炭 焦煤 - 6月24日焦炭加权指数震荡趋弱，收盘价1355.6元，环比下跌26.5；焦煤加权指数弱势，收盘价792.7元，环比下跌13.0 [2] - 焦炭受环保检查及焦化利润收紧等因素影响开工降低，钢厂原料备货低库存，刚需及采购需求走弱，河北及山东主流钢厂落实第四轮50 - 55元/吨提降 [3] - 焦煤因安全生产及环保检查放缓生产节奏，原煤供给环比走低，但矿山累库压力不减，库存处历史高位，钢焦企业放缓补库，中长期过剩格局难改 [3] 郑糖 - 美糖周一窄幅震荡小幅收低，受原油价格下跌影响多头平仓打压，郑糖2509月合约周二小幅走低，夜盘波动不大窄幅震荡 [3] - 2025年5月我国成品糖产量37.7万吨，同比增长59.1%；1 - 5月累计产量906.6万吨，同比增长4.9% [3] - 截止6月17日当周，对冲基金及大型投机客持有的原糖净空头仓位47141手，触及近年来高位，较之前一周增加27626手 [3] 胶 - 受原油价格大幅走低与东南亚现货报价下调等因素影响，沪胶周二震荡下行，夜盘因短线跌幅大受技术面影响震荡整理 [4] - 2025年5月中国橡胶轮胎外胎产量10199.3万条，同比下降1.2%；1 - 5月产量4.88962亿条，同比增2.8% [4] - 2025年5月中国合成橡胶产量69.9万吨，同比增加3.7%；1 - 5月累计产量353.4万吨，同比增加6.2% [4] 豆粕 - 国际市场6月24日CBOT大豆期货偏弱运行，美国中西部有利天气改善作物收成前景令价格承压，截止6月22日当周大豆优良率66%，低于预期和去年同期 [4] - 巴西全国谷物出口商协会预估6月大豆出口量达1499万吨，高于前一周预估值 [6] - 国内市场6月24日豆粕主力M2509收于3037元/吨，较前一交易日持平，5月中国从巴西进口大豆1211万吨，较去年同期激增37.5%，创下单月进口新高 [6] 生猪 - 6月23日生猪主力LH2509合约收于13905元/吨，跌幅0.29% [6] - 养殖端出栏情绪分化，中大猪认卖积极性提升，标猪认卖意愿一般，二育有滚动入场现象 [6] - 居民消费疲软，气温升高、饮食结构调整致鲜品猪肉走货差，商品猪出栏处于恢复期，猪源供应逐月递增，市场供需宽松，期货盘面上行空间受限 [6] 棕榈油 - 6月24日因中东局势缓和原油大幅回落，棕榈油期价跌2.28%，当日最高价8500，最低价8306，收盘8326 [7] - 印尼4月棕榈油出口量178万吨，较去年同期的218万吨下降，4月毛棕榈油产量448万吨，较3月增加，截至4月末库存量304万吨 [7] 沪铜 - 美联储金融监管副主席鲍曼对7月降息持开放态度，表态偏鸽，市场对降息预期提升，短暂提振铜价 [7] - 铜库存不断刷新阶段性低位，为铜价提供支撑，短期内沪铜在供应收缩预期和需求可能回暖作用下，价格下方空间有限，但需求端疲软，上方空间或受限 [7] 铁矿石 - 6月24日铁矿石2509主力合约震荡收跌，跌幅0.42%，收盘价703元 [8] - 本期铁矿海外发运量环比回升，国内到港量同步增加，供应环比宽松，钢厂高炉利润尚可按需补库，铁水产量止跌回升，短期呈震荡走势 [8] 沥青 - 6月24日沥青2509主力合约震荡下跌，跌幅5.01%，收盘价3580元 [8] - 沥青产能利用率环比回落，库存下滑，供应维持低位，出货情况改善，因中东地缘局势缓和原油价格调整，成本端上行驱动消失，短期价格震荡运行 [8] 棉花 - 周二夜盘郑棉主力合约收盘13565元/吨，6月25日全国棉花交易市场新疆指定交割（监管）仓库基差报价最低430元/吨，棉花库存较上一交易日减少74张 [8] 原木 - 6月24日2507开盘816、最低802.5、最高818.5、收盘806.5、日减仓2093手，关注806 - 820区间波动 [9] - 6月24日山东3.9米中A辐射松原木现货价格750元/方，江苏4米中A辐射松原木现货价格760元/方，较昨日持平 [9] - 1 - 5月原木进口量同比减少13.4%，5月进口量同比减少18.5%，港口原木库存逼近5个月新低，需求弱，供需无大矛盾，现货成交弱 [9] 钢材 - 6月24日rb2510收报2977元/吨，hc2510收报3099元/吨 [9] - 螺纹钢供应回升，需求季节性弱势，供增需弱基本面延续弱稳，钢价承压，但库存低位，现实矛盾有限，预计钢价维持低位震荡运行态势 [9] 氧化铝 - 6月24日ao2509收报2903元/吨 [10] - 矿端无较大扰动，国内前期停产检修企业复产，但氧化铝价格走软利润下行，对供应形成压制，利润空间或继续缩窄，底部有成本支撑 [10] 沪铝 - 6月24日al2508收报于20315元/吨 [10] - 国内电解铝生产稳定，交易所 + 社会库存小幅累库，现货升水状态维持，未锻轧铝及铝材出口量走增，下游需求进入淡季，压铸企业开工率下行，价格运行上下有限 [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1][2] - Iron Ore: Sideways to Bearish [3][4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [5][6][7] - Thermal Coal: No Strategy Provided [8][9] Core Views - Steel market sentiment is cautious, and steel prices are oscillating. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant currently, and future focus is on Sino - US tariff negotiations and domestic demand stimulus policies [1] - Iron ore is in the shipping peak season, with an overall supply recovery trend. In the long - term, the supply - demand is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to the molten iron output in the off - season and inventory changes [3] - Coking coal and coke futures prices are oscillating. Although the supply - demand relationship has improved to some extent, the long - term supply is still loose, and the price rebound is restricted [5][6] - Thermal coal prices lack demand support in the short - term, and the supply is loose in the long - term. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the rebar futures main contract closed at 2,990 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3,104 yuan/ton. The national steel city inventory was 3.6911 million tons, a 3.59% week - on - week decrease; the hot - rolled coil inventory was 1.696 million tons, a 3.09% week - on - week decrease. The national building materials transaction volume was 110,200 tons. Rebar is in the consumption off - season, and weak demand will suppress prices. Hot - rolled coil has better profits and stronger production and sales resilience, but there are concerns about future consumption after the export rush fades [1] - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the iron ore futures price oscillated narrowly. The main 2509 contract closed at 704.5 yuan/ton, up 0.21%. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties were basically stable. The total national main port iron ore trading volume was 973,000 tons, a 21.47% week - on - week increase; the forward spot trading volume was 870,000 tons, a 7.45% week - on - week decrease. The global iron ore shipping volume decreased slightly to 33.53 million tons, and the 45 - port arrival volume was 23.845 million tons, an 8.6% week - on - week decrease [3] - **Strategy**: Sideways to bearish for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, coking coal and coke futures prices oscillated. The coke 2509 contract closed at 1,371 yuan, up 1.90%; the coking coal 2509 contract closed at 795.5 yuan, up 2.84%. The imported Mongolian coal spot price was weaker than the futures price. Coke supply is decreasing due to narrowing profits and environmental policies, and there is a price cut expectation. Coking coal supply has decreased due to some mines' production restrictions, and downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing [5][6] - **Strategy**: Sideways for both coking coal and coke single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In May, the industrial raw coal output was 4 billion tons, a 4.2% year - on - year increase. In Shanxi, environmental inspections have been upgraded, and the estimated production suspension capacity is about 10.5 million tons. The market demand is average, and the price is in a stalemate. The port market trading is sluggish, and the downstream demand is poor. The high - calorie imported coal price is firm, while the low - calorie price is falling [8] - **Strategy**: No strategy provided [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating [1][2] - Iron Ore: Oscillating with a downward bias [3][4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Coking coal oscillating, coke oscillating with a downward bias [5][6] - Thermal Coal: No rating provided [7] Core Views - The steel market is in a state of cautious wait - and - see, with steel prices oscillating. Low inventory supports prices, and exports show resilience. Attention should be paid to supply - side policies and Sino - US talks [1]. - The iron ore market is also in a cautious state, with prices oscillating weakly. Although short - term demand keeps prices firm, the long - term supply - demand is relatively loose. Focus on off - season demand and inventory changes [3]. - The coking coal and coke markets are affected by supply - side disturbances, with prices oscillating. Coking coal supply may shrink due to factors, but there are still pressure from high inventory and weakening demand. Coke supply is relatively loose and demand is weak [5][6]. - The thermal coal market is affected by environmental inspections, with prices oscillating. Short - term demand support is insufficient, and the long - term supply is in a loose pattern. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the rebar futures contract closed at 2974 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil futures contract closed at 3089 yuan/ton. The futures trading atmosphere was light, and the spot market transactions were average, with 9980 tons of building materials traded nationwide [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Steel is continuously destocking, with low raw material prices and good steel mill profits. As the off - season approaches, building material production declines, and consumption may also fall, but low inventory supports prices. The plate maintains a pattern of strong supply and demand, and exports are resilient [1]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and there are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the iron ore futures price continued to weaken. The main 2509 contract closed at 698.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.85%. Spot prices in Tangshan ports decreased slightly, and the trading volume of main ports was 949000 tons, a 11.65% increase. Forward spot trading volume was 1.664 million tons [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Global shipments increased slightly this period, with a significant increase in Australian shipments and a significant decline in Brazilian shipments. Iron - water production is at a relatively high level, and inventory is slightly decreasing. In the long run, supply - demand is relatively loose [3]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating weakly, and there are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, coking coal and coke futures oscillated. The market has a strong expectation of falling raw material prices, and coke procurement is mainly volume - controlled. Some coking coal mines have reduced production due to inventory pressure and inspections, and the supply of coking coal is loose. After the third - round price cut of coke, coking enterprise profits are further compressed. Imported Mongolian coal has weak downstream procurement and high trader shipment pressure [5][6]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coking coal, supply contraction expectations are rising, but there are still pressures from high inventory and weakening demand. For coke, the situation of relatively loose supply and weak demand is difficult to change in the short term [6]. - **Strategy**: Coking coal is oscillating, coke is oscillating weakly, and there are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [6]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices are oscillating due to environmental inspections. Chemical and other industries maintain rigid demand, and some coal mines have balanced production and sales. In ports, the market is stable, with price differentiation. Imported low - calorie coal prices are falling, widening the price gap with domestic coal [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Short - term demand support for coal prices is insufficient, and the long - term supply is loose. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [7]. - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [7]