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【国泰第一时间20251212】中央经济工作会议点评
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-12 08:07
中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。会议认为,通过实践,我们对做好新形势下经济工作又 有了新的认识和体会:必须充分挖掘经济潜能,必须坚持政策支持和改革创新并举,必须做到既"放得 活"又"管得好",必须坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结合,必须以苦练内功来应对外部挑战。具体来 看,通稿中有五个方面值得重点关注: 1、总体要求上,实施更加积极有为的宏观政策,增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性,持续扩大内需、优化 供给,做优增量、盘活存量,因地制宜发展新质生产力,纵深推进全国统一大市场建设,持续防范化解 重点领域风险,着力稳就业稳企业、稳市场、稳预期,推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长,保 持社会和谐稳定,实现"十五五"良好开局。 2、宏观政策上,要坚持稳中求进、提质增效,发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应,加大逆周期和跨周 期调节力度,提升宏观经济治理效能。实施更加积极的财政政策。实施适度宽松的货币政策。要增强宏 观政策取向一致性和有效性。将各类经济政策和非经济政策、存量政策和增量政策纳入宏观政策取向一 致性评估。健全预期管理机制,提振社会信心。 整体上,我们认为本次重要会议态度上更为乐观和坚定,更加注重政策效果。 ...
加仓!连续加仓
中国基金报· 2025-12-05 03:54
【导读】昨日 股票ETF市场净流入超43亿元,近三日 累计 加仓108亿元 中国基金报记者 李树超 12月4日,A股震荡回升,沪指 收 跌0.06%,创业板指涨超1%。其中,机器人概念股走强,商业航天股反复活跃,大消费板块走低。 市场走势分化背景下,资金借道股票ETF市场继续加仓。昨日股票ETF市场净流入超43亿元,资金 近 三日 累计 加仓金额超108亿元。其 中,投向中证A500指数的宽基ETF净流入居前,银行ETF、黄金股ETF、军工龙头ETF等行业主题ETF净流出居前。 昨日 股票ETF市场净流入超43亿元 易方达基金旗下ETF最新规模为8090.4亿元,昨日净流入15.9亿元。其中,中概互联网ETF昨日净流入超5.3亿元,机器人ETF易方达、上 证380ETF易方达等产品净流入均超1.5亿元。此外,恒生科技ETF易方达、沪深300ETF易方达等产品净流入也超1亿元。 Wind数据显示,截至 12 月 4 日,全市场 1270 只股票ETF(含跨境ETF)总规模达 4.56 万亿元。 在 昨日股市分化背景下,股票ETF市场总份额增加17.89亿份,按照区间成交均价测算,净流入资金达43.15亿元。 从 ...
多只绩优权益基金限购,释放什么信号?
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2025-12-04 00:41
11月3日,中信保诚多策略灵活宣布单日单个账户单笔暂停100万元以上(不含100万元)大额申购、大额 转换转入及大额定期定额投资业务。11月6日,易方达标普信息科技宣布暂停单日单个账户累计申购金 额不超过10元。11月7日,广发深证100ETF宣布暂停单日单个基金账户合计超过10万元的大额业务。上 述基金采取暂停大额申购的理由均为维护基金的稳定运作。 进入12月,基金暂停大额申购的动作愈发密集。12月2日,中欧基金发布公告称,为保证产品稳定运 作,维护基金份额持有人利益,自12月2日起,基金经理蓝小康在管的中欧红利优享、中欧融恒平衡、 中欧价值回报、中欧价值领航4只产品,全渠道单日限额进一步降至1万元。值得一提的是,就在10月24 日,这4只产品的单日限额就已降至50万元;8月,中欧红利优享和中欧价值回报2只产品宣布单日限额 100万元。 12月2日,兴全红利量化、安信远见成长等基金也宣布了暂停大额申购。12月3日,泰信竞争优选、西部 利得消费精选、创金合信全球医药生物等基金陆续宣布,将在次日暂停大额申购。其中,创金合信全球 医药生物限制申购金额为5000元。 在上述多只暂停大额申购的基金中,还包括一些业绩靠 ...
超175亿 跑了!
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2025-11-26 06:08
【导读】昨日股票ETF市场净流出超175亿元 11月25日,A股三大指数集体上涨。其中,算力硬件股集体爆发,游戏等AI应用端活跃,水产股集体调整。 股市上涨背景下,资金再现"越涨越卖"的操作模式,昨日资金借道股票ETF市场净流出超175亿元。其中,投向中证500指数的宽基ETF出现资金明显净流 出,而港股市场ETF与商品ETF出现净流入。 港股市场ETF等净流入居前 Wind数据显示,截至11月25日,全市场1266只股票ETF(含跨境ETF)总规模达4.54万亿元。 在昨日股市大涨背景下,股票ETF市场总份额减少82.41亿份,按照区间成交均价测算,净流出资金超175亿元。 从大类型来看,昨日港股市场ETF与商品ETF净流入居前,分别达12.14亿元与4.15亿元。 具体到指数维度,沪做市国债指数昨日净流入居前,达6.27亿元。从5日角度观测,近期资金流入恒生科技指数超76亿元,流入沪深300指数超56亿元。 其中,港股通科技ETF昨日净流入2.38亿元,位居全市场首位;恒生红利低波ETF、恒生科技ETF天弘等产品净流入也超1.7亿元,位居市场靠前位置。 | 序号 | 证券简称 | 资金流向 | 上市基金规 ...
股指期货热点:当下股指衍生品交易该如何抉择?
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 07:06
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The recent stock market rally is driven by funds, sentiment, and structural benefits, forming a positive cycle where increased funds lead to higher trading volumes and greater upward momentum. However, there is a risk of a callback, and key indicators to watch for a shift in sentiment include a contraction in trading volume, a decline in basis, and a drop in implied volatility of options. Currently, trading volume remains around 3 trillion, and while optimism persists, risk management is necessary for single - sided long positions in futures. [1] - The market sentiment is generally positive, and after mid - August, optimism about the long - term stock market trend has increased. Strategies should be mainly long - oriented, but attention should be paid to key indicators for sentiment changes. In terms of style, weight - based stocks are showing advantages, and different trading strategies are recommended for different scenarios. [24] Summary by Directory 1. Recent Stock Market Trend Analysis - Since April, the stock index has shown an overall oscillating upward trend. After the sharp decline in April, the trading volume of broad - based indices gradually returned to normal with the entry of the national team. The rapid upward movement since late June is due to the easing of the Middle - East situation and various structural benefits. From June 20th to now, sectors such as TMT, new energy, non - banking finance, and steel have seen significant gains. [2] - The current rally is driven by the support of the national team, the release of structural benefits, positive sentiment, and the influx of funds. The trading volume of the two markets has climbed from around 1 trillion to about 3.1 trillion, approaching the high of last year. The proportion of margin trading in the total trading volume has also increased from about 8% to around 11.6%. [2] - In terms of stock index style, due to the influx of funds, small - cap stocks represented by the CSI 1000 are stronger as both hot money and leveraged funds prefer small - cap stocks with high elasticity and the support of technology concepts. [3] 2. Futures Index Observation and Analysis - With the rise of the stock market and the strong performance of small - cap stocks, the futures index has the following changes: the inter - period spread (next - quarter - current month) first dropped significantly and then rose rapidly; small - cap futures index IM has shown better performance, but there are signs of a recent style shift; the basis of the futures index has generally increased. [8] - The inter - period spread has not deviated from its operating rules. The stronger performance of the far - month contracts since mid - August may reflect an optimistic shift in market expectations for the far - term trend, influenced by factors such as the rebound from low spreads and the change in market expectations from short - term to long - term. Additionally, arbitrage trading at low spread levels has also contributed to the spread rebound. [8][9] - In terms of cross - varieties, small - and medium - cap futures indices have been stronger during the rally, but there are signs of a style shift since the end of August. This may be due to low - point arbitrage trading, the high valuation of small - cap stocks leading to a potential shift of funds to weight - based stocks, and the heavy trading of weight - based stocks in broad - based indices. [15][16] - The basis of the futures index has been rising due to positive sentiment and is currently at a high level for the year. Although there is still room for growth compared to last year's high, considering the low starting point and significant increase, there is a need to be vigilant about a cooling of sentiment. [18] 3. Stock Index Option Observation and Analysis - The implied volatility of options has increased significantly since mid - August, indicating that the market's long - term expectations have deviated from the previous consensus, and optimism about the long - term trend has increased. The stock index has also made breakthroughs, which may have attracted more funds and boosted sentiment. Currently, the implied volatility of stock index options is at a relatively high - middle level in history with room for further increase. [22] 4. Strategy Recommendations - In terms of futures, single - sided long positions should be held with risk management. In terms of style, it is recommended to focus on IF, but if the Fed cuts interest rates in September and liquidity expectations rise, small - cap stocks may show advantages again, and a temporary shift to IM can be considered. For long - term holding, IF is still recommended. Cross - variety arbitrage can focus on long IF and short IM, especially when the spread is at a low level. In terms of inter - period trading, follow the long - term rule of negative correlation between the stock market and the inter - period spread, and take the opportunity to short far - month contracts and long near - month contracts when the two show positive correlation. [24] - For options, due to the high uncertainty of the stock index trend and implied volatility, it is recommended to combine with spot trading, mainly using the insurance strategy (spot + buying put options) to obtain stock market gains while avoiding the risk of a market decline. [25]
知名首席分析师张一弛跳槽,入职华创证券!曾因海通证券“首席内斗”受关注
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-13 07:03
红星资本局8月13日消息,中国证券业协会从业人员公示信息显示,电新行业知名分析师张一弛于今年5月20日从财通证券(601108.SH)离职后,已于8月8 日入职华创证券。 | SACE | 中国证券业协会 | ation of China | | service | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 登记基本信息 | | | | | 姓名 | 40 | | 女 | | | | 执业材 | 华创证券有限责任公 | | S036052508 | | | | 执业岗位 | 证券投资咨询(分析师) | 学历 | 硕士研究生 | | | | 登记日期 | 2025-08-08 | | | | | | | | 登记变更 | | | | | 登记编号 | 登记日期 | 执业机构 | 登记类别 | 登记状态 | 注销登记日期 | | S0850114060002 | 2014-06-07 | 海通证券股份有限公司 | 一般证券业务 | 机构内变更 | 2016-06-08 | | S0850516060003 | 2016-06-28 | 海通证券股份有限公司 | 证 ...
今天,A股“一变”、“三不变”
新华网财经· 2025-07-17 09:35
今天,A股有"一变"和"三不变"。 "一变"是指风险偏好明显提升。 具体表现在:在个股成交额榜前30个股中,仅有C华新(华电新能)、阳光电源下跌,其余个股均上涨,其中,新易盛、 胜宏科技、润和软件、中航沈飞等个股大涨;今天,上涨的个股数量超3500只,为7月9日以来新高。此外,今天仅有1只非ST股跌停。 "三不变"是指沪指继续围绕3500点一线蓄势;结构行情的主角依旧是算力、创新药、多元金融等板块;市场继续聚焦龙头股。 截至收盘,上证指数上涨0.37%,深证成指上涨1.43%,创业板指上涨1.76%。 市场呈现三个特征 最近一段时间,市场运行有三个较为明显的特点: 一是指数运行中枢稳步抬高。 5月至6月,沪指围绕3300点一线震荡盘整。6月底以来,沪指运行中旬抬升至3500点一线,且成交额放大。 二是最近板块轮动加快,但与以往不同,市场的结构行情脉络较为清晰,主要聚焦在算力、创新药、多元金融、光伏、军工、人形机器人等板块上面。 这些板块能够持续活跃,驱动逻辑有相似之处,背后都有宏大的叙事逻辑支撑,且不乏事件催化。 今天,上述几个板块集体走强,其中, 算力产业链和创新药两大板块领涨。具体看,算力产业链中,光模块 ...