Economic Indicators - The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.5%, indicating expansion, slightly better than the expected 52.2% and the previous month's 52.2% [2] - The ISM Manufacturing PMI, however, fell to 48.7%, below the expected 49.4%, indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector [4] - New orders in manufacturing are also in contraction territory at 49.4%, while employment figures improved slightly to 46, still indicating contraction [4][5] US-China Trade Relations - The White House has decided to hold off on additional tariffs as China resumes some semiconductor exports and increases purchases of US agricultural products, including wheat and soybeans [7][8][9] - This easing of trade tensions has led to a positive market reaction, particularly in the agricultural sector [8][10] Market Reactions - Rare earth and mineral companies are experiencing declines, with MP Materials down approximately 5.3%, as investor enthusiasm wanes amid easing supply concerns [12][14][16] - The broader S&P 500 index is facing selling pressure, with only about 19% of stocks in the green, indicating a challenging market environment [15] Oil Market Dynamics - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day, aligning with market expectations, but will pause production increases between January and March due to concerns over inventory levels [19][21] - Current oil prices are under pressure, with significant inventory levels noted, and a bearish outlook persists unless prices can stabilize above $65 [22][23]

Core Insights - Current oil prices are relatively low compared to historical averages, with oil averaging $60 per barrel in 2009, indicating a significant price drop when adjusted for inflation [1][2] - The low oil prices are leading to a decrease in oil demand, creating uncertainty about the future direction of the market [1] - Oil constitutes about one-third of total energy consumption, and its low prices could lead to a tightening of the oil market if demand rebounds [2] Industry Analysis - The current oil market is characterized by low prices, which may not reflect the true demand dynamics, as there is a notable decline in oil demand [1] - The relationship between oil and gas prices suggests that oil remains an essential component of the energy mix, despite its limited role in power generation [2] - If oil prices remain low, there is potential for a resurgence in oil demand, particularly in a context where there is an increasing need for energy [2]

新华财经纽约8月12日电（记者刘亚南）市场继续关注美国与俄罗斯两国首脑会晤可能带来的影响，国 际油价在隔夜市场上涨，12日早盘由涨转跌，午后跌幅进一步扩大，收盘时国际油价下跌。 截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所9月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌0.79美元，收于每桶63.17美元，跌幅 为1.24%；10月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌0.51美元，收于每桶66.12美元，跌幅为0.77%。 德国商业银行分析师表示，如果美国与俄罗斯领导人15日的会谈带来乌克兰冲突的停火或和平协议的达 成，特朗普政府可能暂停上周公布将对印度实施的二级制裁。否则，美国可能对其他俄罗斯石油购买者 实施更为严厉的制裁。 美国普莱斯期货集团高级市场分析师菲尔·弗林表示，特朗普与普京本周的会面是当下石油市场最重要 的事。如果达成停火协议，欧洲将面临解除对俄制裁的压力；如果会谈破裂，则可能会刺激市场整体出 现大的波动。 （文章来源：新华财经） 欧佩克在12日发布的月度石油市场报告维持今年全球日均石油需求129万桶/日的增幅预期不变，但把 2026年全球日均石油需求增长预期上调10万桶/日，至138万桶/日。 欧佩克预计，今年全球经济预计将增长3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The oil market perceives Iran's recent attack as a sign of its ineffective response capabilities, and it has not reduced any oil supply from the market. Analysts believe Iran will not close the Strait of Hormuz, as doing so would hinder its ability to export to major customers [1]. Group 1 - Analyst Robert Yawger from Mizuho states that closing the Strait of Hormuz would be counterproductive for Iran, as it would prevent them from exporting oil to key clients [1]. - The market reaction indicates that the attack has not significantly impacted oil supply, reinforcing the view that Iran's actions are ineffective [1]. - The potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz is seen as a self-defeating move for Iran, which relies heavily on this route for oil exports [1].