上 市 公 司 公 司 研 基础化工 2025 年 10 月 12 日 江南化工 (002226) ——拟公开摘牌重庆顺安爆破，外延内生持续推进 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 10 月 10 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 7.14 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 7.61/4.28 | | 市净率 | 1.9 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 1.05 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 18,913 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,897.03/13,355.42 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 3.68 | | 资产负债率% | 41.00 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 2,649/2,649 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 10-10 11-10 12-10 01-10 02-10 03-10 04-10 05-10 0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating strong operational performance and potential for future growth [3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 6.316 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.111 billion yuan, up 81.3% year-on-year [3]. Group 2: Mining Services Business - The mining services segment generated a gross profit of 767 million yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 17%. This decline was primarily due to the internal management transition of the Lubambe copper mine and the early-stage operations of TerraMining, which reduced revenue and gross profit from mining services [4]. Group 3: Resource Projects - Apart from the Lubambe copper mine, all resource projects met their production targets for the first half of 2025. The resource segment reported revenue of 2.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 238%, and a gross profit of 1.39 billion yuan, up 277% year-on-year. Copper metal production reached 39,442 tons, a year-on-year increase of 199%, while phosphate rock production was 174,000 tons, up 6% year-on-year [5]. Group 4: Future Growth Potential - The Lonshi copper mine's western area commenced production in Q4 2023, while the eastern area is in the early stages of construction. The eastern area is designed for underground mining with a planned production scale of 2.5 to 3.5 million tons per year, with a construction period of 4.5 years. Once operational, it is expected to produce for 12 years, with a combined annual output of approximately 100,000 tons of copper metal from both areas [6]. - The company plans to produce 79,400 tons of copper metal in 2025, an increase of 30,700 tons compared to 2024, representing a 63% year-on-year growth. Additionally, the planned phosphate rock production for 2025 is set at 300,000 tons [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 6.316 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.111 billion yuan, up 81.3% year-on-year [1] - The resource segment showed significant growth, with revenue from this segment reaching 2.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 238%, and gross profit of 1.39 billion yuan, up 277% year-on-year [2] - The company plans to produce 79,400 tons of copper in 2025, an increase of 63% compared to the previous year, and aims for a phosphate rock output of 300,000 tons [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s revenue and net profit for 2025 are projected to be 14.171 billion yuan and 2.341 billion yuan respectively, with net profit growth rates of 47.8% for 2025 and 22.65% for 2026 [5][14] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to reach 3.75 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16 times [5][14] Production and Operations - The Lonshi copper mine's western area commenced production in Q4 2023, with the eastern area in the preparatory stage, aiming for an annual production capacity of 2.5 to 3.5 million tons [3] - The company has secured new mining service contracts worth approximately 7.1 billion yuan, contributing to the upward revision of profit forecasts for 2026-2027 [4] Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 16, 13, and 11 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook as earnings grow [4][16] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 21.19% in 2025, reflecting strong profitability [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][10] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 6.32 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.11 billion yuan, up 81.3% year-on-year [1][5] - The copper mining business showed significant growth, with a production of 21,900 tons in Q2 2025, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 25.4% [2] - The mining services segment is expected to continue its growth trajectory, supported by new large contracts [3] Resource Business Summary - The resource business achieved a revenue of 2.91 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 238.0%, with a gross profit of 1.39 billion yuan, up 276.8% [2] - The gross margin for the resource business was 47.7% [2] - Future growth is anticipated from projects like the Lubanbi copper mine and the San Matias project in Colombia [2] Mining Services Business Summary - The mining services revenue for H1 2025 was 3.32 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year, but the gross profit decreased by 17.3% to 770 million yuan [3] - The decline in gross profit was attributed to the transition of the Lubanbi mining project to internal management and the early-stage operations of Terra Mining [3] - A significant contract worth approximately 805 million USD is expected to bolster future performance in the mining services segment [3] Profit Forecast - The company is projected to have EPS of 3.71, 4.28, and 4.99 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 16, 14, and 12 [3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, with a year-on-year growth of 81.29% in the first half of 2025. The revenue for the same period reached 6.316 billion yuan, representing a 47.82% increase [4] - The resource segment has shown strong performance, with copper metal production increasing by 198.52% year-on-year, reaching 39,400 tons in the first half of 2025. The gross profit margin for this segment improved to 47.68%, up by 4.91 percentage points [5] - The mining service business is expected to grow, with new contracts signed amounting to approximately 7.1 billion yuan in the first half of 2025. The company is expanding its operations in Africa, and the Kamoa copper mine is gradually resuming production [6] Financial Summary - The company achieved a revenue of 7.399 billion yuan in 2023, projected to grow to 12.275 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.5% [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 1.031 billion yuan in 2023 to 2.358 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 48.9% [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 1.65 yuan in 2023 to 3.78 yuan in 2025, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 36.2 to 15.8 [7] Future Outlook - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 2.358 billion yuan, 2.641 billion yuan, and 3.381 billion yuan respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [4] - The anticipated copper metal production from future projects is expected to reach 150,000 tons, suggesting strong long-term growth potential [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][21]. Core Views - The company reported strong performance in the second quarter, with significant revenue and profit growth driven by breakthroughs in copper mining projects [2][3]. - The mining service business showed stable revenue, while the mining resource business experienced rapid growth in both revenue and profit margins [3][19]. - The company is expected to maintain its growth trajectory, with projected revenue and net profit increases over the next few years [4][21]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, the company achieved revenue of 6.316 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.82%, and a net profit of 1.111 billion yuan, up 81.29% [2][8]. - The second quarter alone saw revenue of 3.505 billion yuan, a 52.39% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 689 million yuan, which is a 103.25% increase year-on-year [2][8]. Mining Service Business - The mining service segment generated revenue of 3.322 billion yuan in the first half, a slight increase of 0.57%, but the gross profit decreased by 17.26% to 767 million yuan, resulting in a gross margin of 23.10% [2][13]. - The decline in gross profit was attributed to the transition of Lubambe copper mine to an internal management unit and operational disruptions due to seismic activities [2][13]. Mining Resource Business - The mining resource segment reported revenue of 2.912 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 238.03%, with gross profit rising by 276.83% to 1.388 billion yuan, achieving a gross margin of 47.68% [3][19]. - The company produced approximately 39,400 tons of copper equivalent and sold about 43,900 tons, with sales exceeding production due to inventory at Lonshi copper mine [3][19]. Future Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 12.856 billion yuan, 13.718 billion yuan, and 16.529 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 29.3%, 6.7%, and 20.5% [4][21]. - Net profit projections for the same years are 2.515 billion yuan, 2.598 billion yuan, and 3.260 billion yuan, with growth rates of 58.8%, 3.3%, and 25.5% respectively [4][21].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][21]. Core Views - The company reported strong performance in the second quarter, with significant revenue and profit growth driven by breakthroughs in copper mining projects [2][3][4]. - The mining service business showed stable revenue, while the mining resource business experienced rapid growth in both revenue and profit margins [3][4][21]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, the company achieved revenue of 6.316 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.82%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.111 billion yuan, up 81.29% [2][8]. - For Q2 2025, revenue was 3.505 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 52.39% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 24.70%. The net profit for Q2 was 689 million yuan, up 103.25% year-on-year and 63.30% quarter-on-quarter [2][8]. Mining Service Business - The mining service segment generated revenue of 3.322 billion yuan in the first half, a slight increase of 0.57%, but the gross profit decreased by 17.26% to 767 million yuan, with a gross margin of 23.10% [2][3][13]. - The decline in gross profit was attributed to the transition of Lubambe copper mine to an internal management unit and the impact of operational disruptions due to seismic activities at the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine [2][3][13]. Mining Resource Business - The mining resource segment saw revenue soar to 2.912 billion yuan, a remarkable year-on-year increase of 238.03%, with gross profit reaching 1.388 billion yuan, up 276.83%, and a gross margin of 47.68% [3][4][19]. - The company produced approximately 39,400 tons of copper equivalent and sold about 43,900 tons, with Q2 production increasing by 25.14% compared to Q1 [3][19]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain strong growth, with projected revenues of 12.856 billion yuan, 13.718 billion yuan, and 16.529 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 29.3%, 6.7%, and 20.5% [4][21]. - The net profit forecasts for the same years are 2.515 billion yuan, 2.598 billion yuan, and 3.260 billion yuan, with growth rates of 58.8%, 3.3%, and 25.5% respectively [4][21].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance and growth potential of Jincheng Mining (金诚信), particularly in its resource development sector, which has significantly contributed to its revenue and profit growth in recent years [3][6][11]. Financial Performance - Jincheng Mining expects to achieve a net profit of 10.7 billion to 11.2 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 74.6% to 82.8% [6]. - The company has shown consistent growth in net profit since 2019, with a notable increase in 2023 [6][8]. - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 99.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.4% [11]. Resource Development Sector - The resource development sector has become a major growth driver, contributing over 40% of the company's gross profit [11][17]. - The production and sales of copper and phosphate rock have significantly increased, with copper production expected to reach 7.94 million tons in 2025 [22]. - The company plans to invest $750 million in the Lonshi East District mining project, with production expected to start in the fourth year after completion [25]. Market Dynamics - The global demand for copper is anticipated to remain strong due to declining average grades of copper ore and ongoing infrastructure projects in emerging markets [22][23]. - The resource development sector's gross margin is projected to be 42.3% in 2024, despite a 6 percentage point decline due to the underperformance of the Lubambe copper mine [20]. Capital Expenditure and Funding - Jincheng Mining plans to raise 2 billion yuan through convertible bonds to support its capital expenditure and expansion plans [41]. - The company has seen improvements in cash flow, allowing for a positive free cash flow situation in 2024 [34][38]. Contract and Order Growth - In 2024, the company signed new contracts worth approximately 11.5 billion yuan, which will support its mining service business [30][31]. - The company has increased its overseas revenue share to 73% in 2024, reflecting its focus on international expansion [32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 9.94 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 34.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.58 billion yuan, up 53.6% year-on-year, primarily driven by rising copper prices and significant growth in copper sales [7] - The mining service segment remains stable, with a revenue of 6.54 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 67% of total revenue, while the resource segment's gross profit margin increased to 44% [7] - The company has made strategic acquisitions, including the purchase of Terra Mining and the Lubambe copper mine, to enhance its operational capabilities and resource base [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to reach 13.28 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 33.6% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 2.09 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 31.8% compared to the previous year [5] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 3.35 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 11 [5][8]