1月20日，A股延续回调，CPO（共封装光学）、商业航天等热门赛道跌幅居前，资金转而流向房地 产、银行板块，尾盘更现快速拉升。 受访人士表示，今日未见放量杀跌，盘面表现为结构性调仓，投资主线正由纯题材炒作转向"政策+业 绩"双轮驱动。短期来看，A股仍需震荡消化浮筹，建议逢高减持纯概念股，换入绩优品种。回调途中 切忌盲目追热点，可适当左侧布局科技类ETF（交易型开放式指数基金）。 通信等科技赛道回吐 截至今日收盘，沪指微跌0.01%收报4113.65点，创业板指收跌1.79%报3277.98点，深证成指跌近1%。北 证50收跌2%，科创50收跌1.58%，沪深300、上证50微跌。 量能方面，今日沪深京三市成交总额为2.8万亿元，较上一个交易日增加720亿元。杠杆资金方面，截至 1月19日，沪深京两融余额微降至2.72万亿元。 个股跌多涨少，2233只个股收红，涨停股62只；3102只个股收跌，跌停股23只。今日成交额不低于100 亿元的个股有18只，中国西电（601179）、特变电工（600089）等输变电设备个股逆市上涨，通富微电 （002156）、兆易创新（603986）等半导体个股收涨，但寒武纪-U跌逾 ...

Group 1 - The core transformation of the public fund industry is shifting from "emphasizing scale" to "emphasizing returns," which reflects a return to the fundamental principle of asset management institutions as fiduciaries for clients [1] - The industry needs to balance profitability and functionality, prioritizing functionality to create value for investors and enhance their investment experience while supporting national strategic goals [1] - The issue of "funds making money but investors not benefiting" is attributed to the high volatility of actively managed equity funds, highlighting the need for stricter performance benchmarks to clarify product offerings for investors [1] Group 2 - With the continuous growth of the Chinese economy, there is significant development potential for the capital market and various asset management products [2] - Active equity investment will thrive as it focuses more on investor returns, emphasizes benchmark importance, and builds research platforms to generate stable alpha returns [2] - Passive investment tools, particularly ETFs, have vast growth potential, with broad-based ETFs becoming more closely linked to economic fundamentals, allowing investors to share in the economic growth [2]

Group 1 - The total number of ETFs in the market reached 1,391, with a total scale exceeding 6 trillion yuan, marking historical highs in both quantity and scale [1] - Among all ETFs, stock ETFs account for 77.71% of the total number and 63.78% of the total scale, with 1,081 stock ETFs totaling 3.85 trillion yuan [1] - Passive index ETFs have become the market mainstream, with 1,208 such ETFs representing 86.84% of the total number and 5.06 trillion yuan, which is 83.91% of the total scale [1] Group 2 - Bond and commodity ETFs showed remarkable growth, with bond ETFs increasing from 173.91 billion yuan at the end of 2024 to 804.56 billion yuan, a growth rate of 362.62% [2] - Technology-themed ETFs are highly favored, with 134 ETFs containing "technology" or "innovation" in their names, totaling 1.05 trillion yuan, which is 17.41% of the total ETF scale [2] - The rapid growth of bond ETFs and innovative products like technology bond ETFs are key drivers of market expansion, alongside the popularity of commodity and cross-border ETFs [2] Group 3 - The "Matthew Effect" is increasingly evident among fund managers, with 16 leading institutions managing ETFs exceeding 100 billion yuan, collectively accounting for 89.55% of the total ETF scale [3] - The growth of the ETF market is supported by policy guidance, product innovation, and the influx of long-term capital, with new policies creating favorable conditions for rapid development [3] - The variety of ETFs covering multiple asset classes, including broad-based, thematic, bond, cross-border, and commodity ETFs, effectively meets investors' needs for capturing structural opportunities [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the shift in the public fund industry from focusing on scale to prioritizing returns, highlighting the importance of asset management institutions returning to their fundamental role of managing clients' investments [1] - The public fund industry should balance profitability and functionality, with a primary focus on creating value for investors and enhancing their sense of gain, while also supporting national strategic goals [1] - Concerns have been raised about the disparity between fund performance and investor returns, attributed to the high volatility of actively managed equity funds, suggesting that stricter performance benchmarks could clarify product offerings for investors [1] Group 2 - The ongoing growth of the Chinese economy presents significant development opportunities for the capital market and various asset management products, with a focus on enhancing investor returns and the importance of research and investment platforms [2] - Passive investment tools, particularly ETFs, are expected to have substantial growth potential, with broad-based ETFs becoming more closely linked to economic fundamentals, allowing investors to benefit from China's economic growth [2] - Technology-focused ETFs are anticipated to continue their growth trajectory, playing a crucial role in China's pursuit of technological self-reliance and strength [2]

Core Insights - The ETF market is experiencing rapid expansion, with total scale surpassing 6 trillion yuan by 2025, marking a historic growth of over 2.3 trillion yuan within the year [2][3] - The number of ETF products has increased to 1,391, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32.98% [2] - The market is characterized by a dual dynamic of "stronger getting stronger" and "hotspot rotation," with significant inflows into both broad-based and thematic ETFs [1][4] Market Growth - The ETF market scale grew from 4 trillion yuan to 5 trillion yuan in just 4 months, and then quickly exceeded 6 trillion yuan [2] - The total scale of ETFs has seen a year-on-year increase of 61.66% [2] - Approximately 80% of ETF products are stock-based, totaling 3.85 trillion yuan [2] Product Types and Performance - Bond ETFs and commodity ETFs have shown remarkable growth, with bond ETFs reaching 804.56 billion yuan (up 362.46%) and commodity ETFs at 256.85 billion yuan (up 239.42%) [2] - Cross-border ETFs have also seen a significant increase of 121.49% [2] - The passive index ETF has become the dominant type, accounting for nearly 90% of the total number of products and 5.06 trillion yuan in scale [2] Leading Products and Trends - Seven ETFs have surpassed 100 billion yuan in scale, with the CSI 300 ETF leading at over 420 billion yuan [4][5] - The technology and gold-themed ETFs are particularly popular, with technology-related ETFs totaling 1.05 trillion yuan [4] - The communication equipment index has achieved the highest return, with a growth of 128% this year [5] Institutional Landscape - The ETF market is dominated by 57 public fund institutions, with 16 institutions managing ETFs exceeding 100 billion yuan, collectively managing 5.40 trillion yuan, which accounts for 89.55% of the total market scale [5] - 华夏基金 leads with 117 ETFs totaling 960.14 billion yuan, followed by 易方达基金 with 113 ETFs at 888.33 billion yuan [5]

Group 1: ETF Market Growth - The A-share market has experienced a strong rally, leading to explosive growth in the ETF market, with a total of 351 ETF products issued in 2025, reaching an issuance volume of 2,554.55 million units, surpassing the total issuance of the previous two years [1] - Stock ETFs are the main contributors to this growth, with 312 stock-type ETFs issued, accounting for 88.89% of the total number of ETFs and 62.71% of the total issuance volume [1] - Bond ETFs also saw significant growth, with 32 new bond-type ETFs issued, totaling 914.83 million units, marking a historical high in both issuance quantity and scale [1] Group 2: Thematic and Sector Trends - Technology-themed ETFs have become the most sought-after products in 2025, with 47 ETFs containing "technology" in their names, accounting for 13.39% of the total issuance and 26.04% of the total issuance volume [1] Group 3: QDII ETF Performance - QDII ETFs have also experienced a significant increase, with 7 new QDII ETFs issued in 2025, although this is a decrease from the previous year; however, the issuance volume reached 37.67 million units, and the closing volume was 160.50 million units, indicating a strong demand for global asset allocation [2] Group 4: Issuing Institutions - A total of 47 public fund institutions participated in ETF product issuance this year, with E Fund leading with 31 ETFs issued and an issuance volume of 172.41 million units, followed by Fuguo Fund with 26 ETFs and 160.12 million units, and Penghua Fund with 25 products and 135.27 million units [2]

金融工程 · 专题报告 研究助理：童诗倍 ：tongshibei_yj @chinastock.com.cn 相关研究 1. 【银河金工】宏观经济周期划分下的 ETF 配置方 法 基于 QRF 分布预测的科技类 ETF 轮动策略 —— ETF 策略系列 2025 年 12 月 22 日 核心观点 分析师 马普凡 ：021-68597610 ：mapufan_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522040002 2. 【银河金工】结合价格动量和拥挤度的两融 ETF 交易策略探索 3. 【银河金工】行业轮动模型在行业及主题 ETF 配 置上的应用 4. 【银河金工】ETF 策略系列：结合二阶随机占优 的资金流向 ETF 行业配置策略 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 1 ⚫ 科技大类行业 ETF 发展迅猛，轮动效应显著，为轮动策略实施奠定基础： 行业主题 ETF 在 2025 年迎来爆发式增长，整体规模首次突破万亿元，其中 科技与制造大类在数量和规模上均居领先地位，反映出市场对 " 新质生产 力"板 ...

Group 1: Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector showed strong performance on December 10, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit, leading real estate ETFs to rank high in the ETF market's gainers list [1][3] - Notable real estate ETFs included: - 159768.SZ Real Estate ETF with a price of 0.575 and a daily increase of 3.79% - 159707.SZ Real Estate ETF with a price of 0.64 and a daily increase of 3.73% - 512200.SH Real Estate ETF with a price of 1.534 and a daily increase of 3.09% [4] Group 2: Agriculture Sector - The agriculture sector performed well, with themes such as seed industry, land transfer, and aquatic products showing strong performance, leading agriculture-related ETFs to rank among the top gainers [2][5] - The sentiment in the seed industry has been notably boosted, with ongoing commercialization of biological breeding benefiting leading companies [5] Group 3: Technology Sector - Technology ETFs experienced significant inflows, with several ETFs seeing net inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan last week, and continued inflows in the first two trading days of this week [2][9] - The top net inflows for technology ETFs included: - 159352.OF Southern CSI A500 ETF with a net inflow of 15.66 billion yuan - 159600.OF Harvest CSI AAA Technology Innovation Corporate Bond ETF with a net inflow of 10.95 billion yuan [10] Group 4: Bond ETFs - Bond ETFs were actively traded, with several types such as Short-term Bond ETF, Benchmark Treasury Bond ETF, and Yinhua Daily Benefit ETF seeing transaction amounts exceeding 10 billion yuan [7][8] - The Short-term Bond ETF had a transaction amount of 401.12 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 54.79% [8] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Institutions suggest focusing on gold and innovative pharmaceuticals as key investment directions, with gold expected to benefit from potential monetary easing and a shift in global credit dynamics [11] - The release of China's first commercial insurance innovative drug catalog is seen as a significant step for the innovative drug industry, potentially enhancing investment opportunities in the healthcare sector [11]

（2）2025年私募行业多项指标刷新纪录：总规模首度站上22万亿元，证券类私募规模突破7万亿元，S基金年度交易额预计 创历史新高；行业整体盈利与分红金额同步抬升。资金"投早、投小、投硬科技"趋势显著，私募正成为撬动新质生产力与 科技创新的关键力量，科技红利持续释放带动行业整体回暖。 （3）12月以来，新基金发行进入冲刺模式，正在或即将启动募集的产品已超120只。布局主线呈两极：一端面向高风险偏 好，主推股票型、混合型等权益品种；一端锁定稳健需求，力推"固收+"及低波策略。年末密集上新既显示机构对当前市场 位置的看好，也为明年行情提前占位，发行热潮有望延续至岁尾。 （4）12月9日，易方达、华夏、南方等头部公募同步发声，提示旗下跨境ETF二级市场交易价格溢价风险。数据显示，进 入12月后，14家公募累计发布溢价风险提示公告已突破200份。高溢价意味着买入成本高于实际净值，一旦溢价收敛将直接 侵蚀本金，持有者或潜在买家应冷静评估。多家公司同时声明，若溢价幅度持续居高不下，将向交易所申请盘中临停或延 长停牌时间，以遏制非理性炒作，保护投资者利益。 一、交易提示 截至12月9日，上报新基已超70只，指数型占据近半席位 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market continues its rebound, leading to significant net inflows into stock ETFs, with over 10.8 billion yuan in a single week [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a slight rebound, with the ChiNext Index rising by 1.86% over the week, outperforming other major indices [2]. - The total scale of stock ETFs (including cross-border ETFs) reached 4.38 trillion yuan, with a weekly increase of 353.78 million units [2]. Group 2: Fund Inflows - Stock ETFs saw a net inflow of 108.73 billion yuan, with nearly 90 billion yuan coming in on a single day [2][4]. - The largest net inflows were observed in the CSI A500 ETF, which attracted 34.82 billion yuan in a single day [5]. - Over the past five trading days, funds flowing into ETFs tracking the CSI A500 index exceeded 4.4 billion yuan, while those tracking the Hang Seng Tech Index saw inflows of over 1.9 billion yuan [6]. Group 3: Fund Management Companies - Major fund companies like E Fund and Huaxia Fund reported continued net inflows into their ETFs, with E Fund's total ETF scale reaching 817.12 billion yuan, increasing by 8.08 billion yuan on December 5 [7]. - Specific ETFs such as the CSI 300 ETF and the Sci-Tech Innovation ETF saw net inflows of 2.3 billion yuan and 1.4 billion yuan, respectively [7]. Group 4: Regulatory Impact - The recent adjustment in risk factors for insurance companies' holdings of certain indices is expected to benefit broad-based ETFs, contributing to the net inflows observed [8].