出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 丁萍 段明珠 编辑 | 丁萍 头图 | 视觉中国 连续下跌后，3月5日大A终于给了个反弹。 但这是受中东冲突缓解预期的提振，且反弹非常弱，指数层面来看远未能反包前两日跌幅。 收盘后，各种美伊相关小作文层次不穷。而国内适逢两会召开，政策文件也纷至沓来。 该如何抓住关键核心？ 冲突风险未完全消除 中东冲突有望缓解？ 据福克斯新闻报道，美国能源部长赖特表示，在适当时机，美国海军将护送船只安全通过霍尔木兹海峡；财政部长贝森 特也表示，白宫将出台一系列措施，保障波斯湾石油运输安全。 但从今天盘面的走势可以看出，现在市场情绪的缓解还是停留在预期层面， 实际冲突风险尚未完全消化。 只有冲突在短时间内快速结束，市场对供应风险的恐慌迅才会完全消退，风险偏好才能真正恢复。 但这种情形发生的概率不大，因为伊朗短期内不太可能完全顺从。3月4日，伊朗宣称已做好"长期战争"准备，拒绝谈 判，这进一步表明冲突短期内难以彻底解决。 如果中东冲突升级，多国深度卷入，霍尔木兹海峡封锁或大面积破坏，全球能源供应紧张预期将大幅强化，推动油价上 行。随之而来的再通胀预期会影响全球宏观经济和金融市场： 一是高通胀预期延缓 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 市场策略丨专题报告 [Table_Title] A 股周论：两会前后买什么？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 两会前后 A 股市场通常呈现出一定的日历效应，整体呈现上涨趋势。市场风格上，两会前市场 风格通常呈现出"小盘>大盘"的特征，而消费风格在两会后可能展现出较强的股价弹性。在两 会前后的市场节点，建议关注两条交易线索：（1）历史经验表明，历次"五年规划"首年的两 会窗口期，市场表有更大概率围绕当年规划的产业主线展开；（2）从资金面看，市场处于牛市 期间，两会前后 A 股市场表现与融资余额走势高度相关。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490524010002 SFC：BTR264 戴清 李巍东 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 年后第一周，A 股市场迎来开门红，周期板块领涨。结构上看，本周 A 股市场主要宽基指数普 遍上涨，中证 1000 指数领涨市场，小盘股表现相对优于大盘股；分行业看，本周钢铁、有色 金属等行业领涨市场，地缘扰动持续与全球制造业复苏周期背景下周期板块领涨市场。3 月市 场 ...

Group 1 - A-shares indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.29% [1] - The CSI 1000 ETF saw a rise of 0.89%, while other major indices like the SSE 50 and CSI 300 also experienced gains [1] - Among the top 50 weighted stocks in the CSI 1000 ETF, notable gainers included Zhongtung High-tech (+10.00%), Yuntian Lifeng (+8.55%), and Jucheng Co. (+8.10%) [1] Group 2 - The electronic sector rose by 2.71%, while other sectors such as power equipment and pharmaceuticals also showed positive performance [1] - Recent government policies aim to reduce financing costs and lower barriers for private enterprises, addressing the challenges of high financing costs and difficulties in obtaining financing [2] - Analysts suggest that the A-share market retains strong upward momentum due to factors like increased household savings entering the market and a new wave of technological industrial revolution [2]

Group 1 - The core logic driving the bullish trend in AH stocks includes capital inflow, technological innovation, institutional reform, and consumption upgrade, with a "slow bull" market expected to continue until 2026 [1][2] - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a foundational year with a GDP growth forecast of around 5%, supported by policy support, stable domestic demand, and industrial upgrades [4] - The "new four bulls" concept, which includes capital inflow bull, technological innovation bull, institutional reform bull, and consumption upgrade bull, is expected to drive the market towards a gradual upward trend [5] Group 2 - The macroeconomic focus for 2026 should be on the trajectory of the technological industrial revolution, with indicators such as U.S. technology capital expenditure being crucial for assessing global asset allocation [6][7] - The real estate market is expected to transition from a financial product to a consumer product, drawing parallels with Japan's aging population and housing market dynamics [8] - The AI industry revolution is ongoing, with significant demand for computing power and applications anticipated, indicating a long-term optimistic outlook [9] Group 3 - The humanoid robot sector is experiencing significant growth, with a potential market size comparable to that of automobiles and consumer electronics, indicating substantial valuation space [10]

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Capital Market Summit highlighted that 2026 will be a year of solidifying foundations and comprehensive efforts, with a focus on innovation, domestic demand, and a more proactive fiscal and monetary policy environment [2] Economic Outlook - GDP growth is expected to remain around 5% in 2026, supported by policy support, stable domestic demand, and industrial upgrades [3] - The monetary policy is anticipated to be in a loosening cycle, with a potential 50 basis points decrease in the reserve requirement ratio and continued interest rate cuts [3] Market Trends - The "slow bull" market trend is expected to continue from now until 2026, driven by the "new four bulls" concept, which includes capital inflow, technological innovation, institutional reform, and consumption upgrades [4] - The Chinese stock market is projected to gradually shift upward as it enters the "new four bulls" ascending corridor [4] Investment Opportunities - Key sectors for medium to long-term investment include AI, semiconductors, computers, primary products, small metals, new energy, high-end manufacturing, humanoid robots, and low-altitude economy [5] - In the bond market, a loosening monetary policy is expected to lead to a downward trend in yields over the long term [5] Global Asset Focus - Attention should be paid to the trajectory of the technological industrial revolution, with U.S. tech capital expenditure serving as a key indicator [6] - If the tech cycle remains in an expansion phase, assets like copper may perform well, while safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries and gold may face pressure [6] Real Estate Insights - The real estate market is expected to transition from a financial product to a consumer good, drawing parallels with Japan's aging population and housing market dynamics [8] AI Industry Revolution - The ongoing AI industrial revolution is anticipated to have profound impacts, with significant demand for computing power and applications expected [9] Humanoid Robots Market - The humanoid robot industry is still in its early stages, with significant valuation potential as it develops [10] - The market for humanoid robots could reach trillion-dollar valuations, with ongoing competition expected to reshape the industry landscape [10]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes three major investment directions based on the "14th Five-Year Plan" suggestions: technological industry revolution, nationwide unified market, and national security assurance [2][5][6]. Investment Directions - **Technological Industry Revolution**: The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests seizing the historical opportunity of a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation, focusing on quantum technology, biological manufacturing, hydrogen and nuclear fusion energy, brain-machine interfaces, embodied intelligence, and 6G mobile communication as new economic growth points [7][30]. - **Nationwide Unified Market**: The plan aims to eliminate barriers to the construction of a nationwide unified market, addressing "involution" competition, and promoting the healthy development of key industries such as mining, metallurgy, chemicals, light industry, textiles, machinery, shipbuilding, and construction during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [7][30]. - **National Security Assurance**: This encompasses both national defense and technological security. The report highlights the need to improve the new type of national system and implement extraordinary measures to achieve breakthroughs in key core technologies in areas such as integrated circuits, industrial mother machines, high-end instruments, basic software, advanced materials, and biological manufacturing [7][30]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a "slow bull" market, with the potential for revaluation of Chinese assets. It notes that traditional real estate-driven economic demand is declining, while new productive forces are gradually gaining influence. Emerging technology industries are expected to create new demand through technological advancements, particularly in AI and robotics [8][36]. - The report also indicates that scarce supplies should enjoy valuation premiums, as resource pricing shifts from traditional economic cycles to energy transitions and geopolitical factors. Additionally, the gradual clearing of excess capacity in industries like photovoltaics and chemicals may lead to further valuation recovery [8][36].