中金研究 人民银行发布3月金融机构信贷收支表、其他存款性公司资产负债表及货币当局资产负债表。 点击小程序查看报告原文 开年信贷的微观线索。 一季度新增贷款9.7万亿元，同比多增0.3万亿元，实现良好开局，体现出央行"加大货币信贷投放力度"的政策导向。但从结构来看 仍存在一些"隐忧"：1）一季度新增居民贷款仅占全部新增贷款的11%，同比少增0.3万亿元，新增量为近10年的最低水平，体现居民加杠杆购房和提前消 费仍较为谨慎；2）利率较低、更容易"冲量"的短期对公贷款和票据贴现一季度合计新增3.0万亿元，为最近3年最高值，成为贷款多增的主要贡献，其中 大型银行短期贷款+票据融资同比多增1.4万亿元，远高于中小银行（同比增量持平），体现出大行"冲量"意愿更强；3）一季度末制造业中长期贷款和普 惠小微贷款增速分别为9.3%和12.2%，分别较年初下行2.6和2.4个百分点，增速均为2020年以来最低水平，主要由于产业投资放缓以及小微企业信用风险 上升。 资金整体供过于求。 除居民贷款偏弱外，一季度企业中长期贷款同比少增约0.6万亿元，部分受到政府隐性债务置换的影响。根据《金融时报》测算，一 季度用于化债的特殊再融资专项 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 fiscal budget reflects low revenue growth targets due to domestic and international pressures, while maintaining high expenditure levels to enhance counter-cyclical fiscal adjustments [1][5]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Targets - For the first budget, the 2025 general public budget revenue and expenditure growth targets are set at 0.1% and 4.4% respectively, indicating ongoing fiscal challenges [2]. - The share of spending on livelihood and technology in the general public budget has increased, with livelihood spending accounting for 37.1% and technology spending reaching a historical high of 4.2% [2]. - For the second budget, the growth target for government fund revenue is 0.7%, while expenditure growth is set to increase to 23.1%, indicating a proactive fiscal stance [2]. Fiscal Deficit Analysis - The estimated broad fiscal deficit for 2025 is approximately 11.4 trillion, corresponding to a broad deficit rate of about 8.0%, marking the highest level historically [3]. - The implied nominal GDP for 2025 is calculated to be 141.5 trillion, with a nominal GDP growth rate of approximately 4.9% [3]. Recent Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Situation - In January-February, general public budget revenue declined, primarily due to negative growth in tax revenue, influenced by the early timing of the Spring Festival [4]. - General public budget expenditure grew by 3.4%, with a notable acceleration in government debt issuance, indicating a proactive fiscal approach [4]. - Expenditures in technology (10.6%), education (7.7%), and social security and employment (6.7%) have shown significant growth, reflecting strong support for livelihood and technological innovation [4].