证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 31 日 湘财证券研究所 公司研究 中钨高新（000657.SZ） 优质钨矿资产注入夯实一体化根基，新兴需求领域布局前景良好 公司评级：增持（首次覆盖） 近十二个月公司表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 31 58 190 绝对收益 34 60 207 注：相对收益与沪深 300 指数相比 分析师：王攀 证书编号：S0500520120001 Tel：(8621) 50293524 Email：wangpan2@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路 88 号 中国人寿金融中心 10 楼 核心要点： ❑ 五矿旗下钨产业运营管理平台，业务一体化布局 公司成立于 1991 年，中国五矿集团 2010 年入主成为实控人。公司经历 多次重组整合，逐步覆盖钨全产业链，目前发展成为中国五矿钨产业的 运营管理平台。公司主要业务包括切削刀具及工具、其他硬质合金、难 熔金属、精矿及粉末产品及贸易及装备四大板块，产品不仅在传统领域 居于主导低位，同时广泛应用于新兴高端领域。 ❑ 公司营收稳步增加，优质矿山注入带动盈利中枢提升 钨是重要的战略性稀有金属资源，全球钨增量有限 ...

Overview - The mechanical equipment sector has shown strong performance, with a 30.48% increase from January to November 2025, ranking sixth among 31 primary industry indices [20][21][22] - Multiple sub-sectors have outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300, with significant gains in electric motors, general equipment, and specialized equipment [20][22] General Sector - The PMI and new orders PMI for the general sector showed a trend of rising and then falling, indicating stable manufacturing demand, with inventory levels remaining reasonable [2][32] - The peak growth rate for finished product inventory PMI was 2.56%, suggesting a stable inventory situation [2][32] - Companies to watch include Inovance Technology, Okuma, Huari Precision, New Sharp, Naipu Mining Machinery, and Jereh [2][39] Engineering Machinery Sector - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing a recovery in domestic demand and high overseas demand, with a focus on electrification and technological transformation [3] - Key players like SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, and LiuGong are noted for their advantages in technology research and global channels [3] Rail Transit Equipment Sector - The growth rates for passenger and freight transport have exceeded the annual expectations set by the China National Railway Group, with significant investment in the railway sector [4] - From January to October 2025, passenger volume reached 3.95 billion, up 6.4% year-on-year, and freight volume was 4.37 billion tons, up 2.6% [4] - Companies to focus on include CRRC Corporation, China Railway Signal & Communication, and Siwei Control [4][39] Quantum Technology Sector - The national strategy increasingly emphasizes quantum technology, with expectations for continued investment and policy support [8] - The development of quantum technology is anticipated to drive demand for related hardware and software, benefiting core equipment manufacturers [8][39] Low-altitude Economy Sector - The low-altitude economy has been highlighted in government work reports, with local governments actively promoting development plans [9] - By 2025, local low-altitude economic industry funds are expected to exceed 100 billion, providing financial support for development [9][39] Export Chain Sector - The export chain is advised to focus on the U.S. market and emerging markets, with potential recovery in consumer spending if the U.S. continues to lower interest rates [10] - Companies to monitor include Jack Technology, Honghua Digital, Yindu Co., and Yizhiming [10][39]

2026年展望：钨价上涨驱动刀具行业格局改善，机床存在结构性机会 钨是数控刀具核心原材料(硬质合金刀具含钨量超80%)，2025年以来，钨精矿价格持续走高，对刀具公 司的影响有明显分化，头部企业凭借调价、库存等优势实现业绩增长，而中小公司则面临成本压力甚至 减产停工。国内刀具行业市场集中度低，格局分散，钨涨价正在加速刀具行业洗牌，头部企业有望持续 提升市占率。此外，人形机器人等新兴赛道也有望拉动刀具行业需求。 金切机床订单增速放缓。国内总体有效需求不足的问题仍存在，今年固定资产投资及主要用户领域的投 资增速回落，制造业的产能利用率年度内始终不足75%，因此机床的整体需求偏弱。但机床下游应用广 泛，仍存在结构性增长机会。因此，建议重点关注高端装备制造业全产业链自主可控、人工智能、具身 机器人、航空航天、低空经济等新兴领域带来的结构性机会，抓住这些下游发展机遇的机床企业有望受 益。 风险提示：原材料价格大幅上涨风险、人才流失风险、下游制造业复苏不及预期风险。 智通财经APP获悉，招商证券发布研报称，机床刀具行业总需求受制造业整体景气度影响较大，主要宏 观指标显示今年制造业复苏程度偏弱，但存在结构性景气方向。预计2 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业策略报告 2025 年 12 月 25 日 钨价上涨驱动刀具格局改善，机床存在结构性机会 通用设备行业 2026 年度策略报告 中游制造/机械 机床工具行业需求与制造业景气度高度相关，2025 年，总体需求偏弱，股价走 势跑输机械行业指数；但微观上看，行业上市公司业绩持续改善，其中刀具公 司率先出现利润拐点。2026 年，钨价上涨有望驱动刀具行业格局优化，且核心 公司业绩已经出现拐点，基本面持续向好；机床仍存在新兴行业带来的结构性 机会。建议重点关注：（1）刀具：欧科亿、华锐精密；（2）机床：海天精工、 纽威数控。 ❑ 2025 年回顾：行业需求偏弱，股价跑输机械行业指数。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 476 | 9.2 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 4852.7 | 4.6 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 4191.8 | 4.3 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 7.5 29.6 40.4 相对表现 3.3 10.9 24.1 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on the Tungsten Price Surge and Tool Industry Changes Industry Overview - The tungsten powder price has surged threefold, creating operational pressures for small and medium-sized tool companies due to insufficient inventory and procurement difficulties, leading to order losses and price increases for products [1][2] - Large companies like Huari and Oke Yi benefit from sufficient inventory and higher gross margins, allowing them to better cope with rising costs and potentially increase market share [1][2] Key Points and Arguments - **Tungsten Price Fluctuations**: Tungsten powder prices rose from 316 RMB/kg at the beginning of the year to 1,031 RMB/kg by December 19, 2025, marking an increase of nearly three times [2] - **Impact on Small and Medium Enterprises**: These companies have low inventory levels and face significant operational pressures due to rising costs and procurement challenges, with the cost of 10 tons of tungsten powder increasing from approximately 300-350 thousand RMB to 800-900 thousand RMB by year-end [2] - **Performance of Large Enterprises**: Companies like Huari and Oke Yi reported a turnaround in Q3 2025, achieving a net profit of around 50 million RMB each, with expectations for better performance in Q4 [2][10] - **Export Trends**: China's tool exports by weight decreased by 1.88% year-on-year, indicating a consumption of overseas tungsten inventory. China is reassessing tungsten's strategic value and limiting exports, which may enhance the profitability of domestic tool manufacturers [2][13] Market Dynamics - **Foreign vs. Domestic Tool Manufacturers**: Foreign tool manufacturers hold about one-third of the market share in China. They quickly sold out their inventory after price increases in September 2025 and ceased taking orders in Q4. In contrast, domestic companies like Huari and Oke Yi continue to receive orders and ship products [4] - **Pricing Strategies**: Domestic brands have room to increase prices by 20%, while foreign brands may see price points of 15-20 RMB, allowing domestic brands to potentially increase their prices by 30-40% [4] Future Demand Outlook - **High-End CNC Tool Demand**: The demand for high-end CNC tools is primarily driven by sectors such as military, new energy, and high-temperature alloys, with a stable growth rate of 1.5% to 2% per year for tungsten products [5][7] - **Electric Vehicle Industry**: Despite potential declines in shipment volumes due to competition, production levels remain stable, ensuring continued demand for CNC tools. The trend of import substitution is expected to facilitate a smoother transition for domestic market share by 2025 [8] Company Performance and Financial Health - **Cash Flow Status**: Tool companies are currently in a strong cash collection phase, with some requiring 100% prepayment for new contracts due to raw material shortages. Huari Precision reported a net cash flow of nearly 10 million RMB for two consecutive quarters [11] - **Fixed Asset Investment**: Major companies have ceased new capacity investments since Q2 2025, indicating a comfortable operational state where existing capacity and inventory can meet market demand [12] Strategic Insights - **Future of Chinese Tool Manufacturers**: As global tungsten resources become scarcer, large Chinese tool manufacturers with procurement and channel advantages are expected to thrive, enhancing their profitability through increased market share and improved gross and net margins [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong order backlog and growth potential of several companies in the manufacturing and energy sectors, indicating a positive outlook for their revenue and profit growth through 2027 and beyond [1][4]. Group 1: Company Order Backlogs - CIMC Group has a marine engineering order backlog of approximately $5.55 billion, with production scheduled until 2027/2028 [1]. - China Shipbuilding has reported a full order book extending to the end of 2028, with some orders reaching into 2029 [2]. - Sumec has 85 shipbuilding orders scheduled until the end of 2024, with production extending to 2028 [3]. - Longking Environmental Protection has a full order for energy storage cells, with production scheduled until June 2026 [4]. - Trina Solar has signed overseas orders exceeding 10 GWh, expected to be delivered mainly in 2025-2026, with a target of over 50% year-on-year growth in 2026 [4]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Growth Drivers - A total of 77 companies have reported full or sufficient orders, benefiting from high industry demand, particularly in sectors like lithium batteries, energy storage, and semiconductor-related businesses [5][6]. - The electric power equipment sector has over 20 companies reporting strong orders, driven by increased downstream demand [6]. - The machinery equipment sector has more than 15 companies with robust order books, with companies like Oke Yi and Kede CNC reporting significant order growth due to recovering demand and operational efficiency improvements [6]. Group 3: Profit Growth Projections - Companies such as China Shipbuilding, Trina Solar, and China Power are projected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 40% in net profit from 2025 to 2027 [4]. - CIMC Group's net profit CAGR is expected to exceed 15%, with a projected net profit of over 4.5 billion yuan by 2027, despite a previous three-year CAGR of -23.6% [4]. - Among the 77 companies, 19 are expected to have a net profit CAGR exceeding their past three-year performance, indicating a strong recovery and growth potential [7].

数控刀具行业更新 20251214 摘要 钨精矿供给因环保、成本及海外限制收缩，需求端受益于军工、工程机 械等行业增长，供需错配预计持续至明年下半年，推动价格上涨。 刀具市场价格传导顺利，年初至今涨幅 30%-50%，基本覆盖原材料成 本上涨，中游刀具和下游库存水位不高，头部公司受益于低价库存优势。 原材料涨价加速刀具行业中小企业退出，头部企业市占率有望提升，但 低价库存消耗完毕后，各公司将在高成本基础上竞争。 下游需求结构性亮点显现，工程机械、航空航天等领域表现良好，核电 需求预计明年贡献增量，驱动行业增长 5%-10%。 投资策略建议围绕涨价主线和价格传导方向，优先关注具备原材料优势 的企业，如中钨高新，其次是加工原材料占比较高且附加值较高的中游 企业。 欧科亿刀具业务量价齐升，订单价格持续上涨，预计 2026 年一季度价 格达新高；华锐精密聚焦中高端爆款，下游补库需求强劲，并发布智驾 工业软件。 国产刀具市场前景乐观，受益于进口替代、龙头企业产品结构优化及直 销比例扩大，以及技术创新带来的生产效率提升和商业模式拓展。 Q&A 今年上半年，钨精矿、APT 以及碳化钨的价格都有显著上涨，涨幅达到一倍到 两倍 ...

鼎泰高科 20251202 摘要 鼎泰高科受益于 AI 算力服务器需求爆发，2025 年前三季度收入同比增 长 29%，归母净利润同比增长 64%，显示出强劲的增长势头。AI 服务 器中 HDI 板和高多层板需求激增，头部 PCB 厂商资本开支同比增速接近 70%，预示着新一轮扩产周期。 公司 PCB 钻针是核心收入来源，占比约 75%，研磨抛光材料毛利率高 达 61%，显著高于主业钻针的 35%。AI PCB 使用的图层钻针和高长径 比钻针对毛利率提升贡献显著，产能利用率提高也对盈利能力改善有积 极影响。 服务器架构迭代显著提高了 PCB 的重要性，例如 Ruby Ultra 方案采用 正交背板替代铜缆，增加了 PCB 的使用量和价值量。每个 computer tree 新增的 CPX 芯片也需要相应的封装基板和 PCB，芯片数量翻倍意 味着对 PCB 需求翻倍增长。 板厚提升显著增加了钻针消耗，从 GB200 到 Ruby Ultra 方案，单孔加 工所需钻针数量从一根增加到四根，消耗量成倍增长。同时，麻九 Q 布 材料的使用虽然提高了电信号传输速率，但也因其硬度增大导致单针加 工孔数明显下降。 Q&A ...

Core Viewpoint - Dongtai High-Tech has established itself as a leading player in the global PCB drilling needle market over the past 30 years, with a strong performance driven by the increasing demand for PCB processing due to the growth of AI computing power [1] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.457 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 29% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 282 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 64% [1] Market Demand - The surge in AI computing demand has significantly boosted the usage of high-end PCB drilling and consumables, leading to a full order book for the company [1] - The company is entering a phase of accelerated performance realization due to the robust demand in the market [1] Future Projections - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated to be 400 million yuan, 630 million yuan, and 900 million yuan respectively [1] - The current stock price corresponds to dynamic price-to-earnings ratios of 104x, 66x, and 46x for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1] Investment Rating - The company has been given a "Buy" rating in the initial coverage [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates significant opportunities in the CNC tool market driven by high-end manufacturing upgrades and the growing demand for smart manufacturing by 2026 [1][2]. Market Outlook - The CNC tool market is expected to benefit from the continuous upgrade of high-end manufacturing sectors such as aerospace, military, medical devices, consumer electronics, wind power, new energy vehicles, and rail transportation [1]. - The integration of smart manufacturing with CNC tools is becoming crucial, as it supports production optimization, tool lifecycle management, and cost control [1]. - Customers are increasingly focused on overall production efficiency rather than just the price of individual tools, which emphasizes the need for comprehensive solutions from tool suppliers [1]. Order and Shipment Status - The company currently has a sufficient backlog of orders, with new orders showing rapid growth due to recovering downstream demand and inventory replenishment needs [2]. - Orders and product prices have increased month-on-month in October and November, indicating a positive trend in shipment volume and pricing [2]. AI Applications in Tools - AI is transforming the entire lifecycle of tools from design to maintenance, enabling data-driven decision-making and optimization [3]. - Key applications of AI in the tool sector include intelligent design and optimization, quality control during manufacturing, adaptive processing, and inventory management [3]. - The company has made significant advancements in AI applications, enhancing processing efficiency, quality, and cost control [3]. Downstream Industry Demand - The demand for tools is increasing in several downstream industries, including: - New energy vehicle manufacturing, which requires high precision and efficiency for core components [4]. - Aerospace manufacturing, driven by the need for high precision and reliability in processing difficult materials [4]. - Consumer electronics, particularly in the production of 5G devices and smart wearables [4]. - High-end equipment manufacturing, where the demand for high-performance and customized tools is rising [4]. - The green and intelligent transformation of manufacturing, leading to increased demand for efficient and environmentally friendly tools [4]. Product Strategy - The company's product strategy focuses on technological innovation, structural optimization, industry customization, and global expansion [5]. - Key initiatives include advancing foundational technology research, optimizing product structures, and providing customized services for high-end manufacturing sectors [5]. - The company aims to enhance its R&D capabilities across the entire value chain of materials, structures, and coatings to maintain a competitive edge [5]. Aerospace Sector Expansion - The aerospace sector shows a growing demand for tools with high material and precision requirements, with domestic tools gradually increasing their market share [6]. - The company has developed specific products for high-temperature alloys and titanium alloys, establishing a solid customer base in the aerospace sector [6]. PCB Drill Rod Progress - The company has positioned itself well in the PCB drill rod market, with significant production capacity and a strong technical foundation [7]. - It has begun supplying core customers with various specifications and is planning to expand its production capacity in response to market demand [7]. Domestic Import Substitution - The domestic hard alloy tool industry is accelerating its import substitution, with local products gaining traction in high-end manufacturing sectors [8]. - Despite the market size exceeding 500 billion, high-end CNC tools still heavily rely on imports, indicating substantial potential for domestic products [8]. Raw Material Price Impact - Rising raw material prices have led downstream companies to increase their inventory levels to stabilize production costs [9]. - The company has effectively upgraded its product structure and increased prices in response to raw material cost increases, enhancing its competitive position [9]. Inventory Status - The company's inventory levels have significantly decreased, leading to urgent replenishment needs, while raw material inventory has been increased to leverage cost advantages [10]. - The recovery in downstream demand and the company's high-end strategy are expected to improve order levels and profitability [10]. Breakthroughs in Domestic Substitution - The company has made strides in high-end import substitution, completing several comprehensive tool replacement solutions across various sectors [11]. - It has developed tailored solutions for critical components in industries such as automotive, aerospace, and medical devices, indicating a strong market position [11]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a main revenue of 1.023 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.34%, while net profit decreased by 43.09% [12]. - The third quarter alone saw a revenue of 420 million, a 33% increase year-on-year, with net profit rising by 69.31% [12].