据介绍，相关方案在目标设定上体现量质齐升，突出稳增长与优结构并重，各方案均设定了到2026年的 具体量化增长目标。如，钢铁行业增加值增长4%左右、新能源汽车产量达到120万辆、电子信息制造业 营收突破8500亿元、石化化工行业增加值增长5%以上等，明确了稳增长的基本盘。同时，普遍将技术 装备水平提升、产品结构优化等作为核心指标，如力争高端化工占全省化工产业的比重达到60%以上 等。在路径谋划上，以项目建设为支撑，突出优供给与扩需求并重。围绕各自目标路径，12个行业明确 了具体工作措施，共包括136条，重点聚焦大力培育新增长点、强化创新驱动引领、深化数智绿色转 型、优化产业发展生态四个方面。山东将加大政策支持，利用现有渠道聚焦关键环节，鼓励市县配套， 并紧盯重点区域与企业，及时解决突出问题。 党的二十届四中全会提出加快建设航天强国，山东也已明确加力培育壮大航天产业。《政策清单》结合 山东优势，给出两条针对性措施：一是对商业航天火箭企业或卫星企业依托海上发射平台实施的发射项 目，按照不超过购买"发射险""三者险"两项保费总额的35%给予奖补，每个项目最高奖补300万元；二 是面向商业航天领域培育遴选一批具备核心技 ...

党的二十届四中全会提出加快建设航天强国，山东也已明确加力培育壮大航天产业。《政策清单》结合 山东优势，给出两条针对性措施：一是对商业航天火箭企业或卫星企业依托海上发射平台实施的发射项 目，按照不超过购买"发射险""三者险"两项保费总额的35%给予奖补，每个项目最高奖补300万元；二 是面向商业航天领域培育遴选一批具备核心技术竞争力、配套服务水平高、产业带动能力强的企业，依 法依规给予每家最高100万元奖补，支持开展航天配套技术研发投入、生产线升级改造及产业链上下游 协作项目建设等。 "这两条政策是真金白银的支持，也是基于商业航天发展规律顺势而出的'组合拳'，带动的将不仅是企 业层面的创新突破，更是一个产业的崛起。"东方空间联合创始人、副总裁彭昊旻表示，海上发射保险 补贴直击商业航天"高频次、航班化"发射的成本痛点，可帮助企业降低火箭发射成本，支持常态化发 射；而产业链补贴有助于加速吸引和培育优质的产业伙伴在山东集聚，把商业航天"蛋糕"做大。 "十五五"开局之年，保持工业经济平稳增长至关重要。近日发布的《2026年促进经济"稳中求进、提质 增效"政策清单(第一批)》(下称《政策清单》)就工业稳产提质释放多重利好 ...

12个重点行业划定稳增长路线图 商业航天再迎利好"组合包" 建筑绿色化是建筑业企业转变传统生产方式、形成新竞争优势、实现高质量发展的有效途径，而以 政府采购为杠杆，可撬动形成"政府先行—市场跟进—全民参与"的绿色消费生态，激发企业绿色转型积 极性。《政策清单》提到，强化政府采购支持绿色建材长效机制。 省住房城乡建设厅建筑节能与科技处处长史永鹏介绍，山东将加快政府采购支持绿色建材促进建筑 品质提升政策实施，深入开展绿色建材推广应用三年行动，建立健全绿色建材采信库，政府投资或国有 资金投资的城镇新建建筑率先采用绿色建材，星级绿色建筑项目绿色建材应用比例不低于40%。引导民 营建筑业企业在工程项目建设中，积极推行绿色施工、积极采用纳入采信库的绿色建材。在此过程中， 山东还将及时总结发布一批绿色建造工程典型案例，积极推行绿色设计、绿色生产、绿色施工、绿色交 付。 山东是民营经济大省，近年来相继出台了一系列助推民营经济发展的政策，多角度、立体化促进民 营经济高质量发展，增强了民营企业在山东发展的底气。新一年，《政策清单》提到，完善服务民营企 业专项行动常态化、长效化机制。 省发展改革委民营经济处处长陈超介绍，山东将进一 ...

Group 1: PMI and Economic Activity - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for December is 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return to the expansion zone[1] - The production index for December is 51.7%, up 1.7 percentage points from last month, signaling accelerated manufacturing activity[2] - The composite PMI output index is 50.7%, reflecting overall economic activity improvement compared to the previous month[7] Group 2: Demand and Orders - The new orders index for December is 50.8%, rising 1.6 percentage points, indicating improved market demand in manufacturing[3] - The production expectation index for manufacturing is 55.5%, up 2.4 percentage points, showing increased confidence among manufacturers regarding market development[2] - The new export orders index is 49%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points, suggesting stable development in manufacturing exports[3] Group 3: Price Trends - The purchasing price index for raw materials is 53.1%, down 0.5 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in price increases for raw materials[4] - The factory price index is 48.9%, up 0.7 percentage points, marking a second consecutive month of increase in finished product prices[4] - Price trends are diverging, with high-energy-consuming industries experiencing a decline in purchasing prices, while equipment and high-tech manufacturing maintain a faster price increase[4] Group 4: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points, indicating improvement in the non-manufacturing sector[7] - The construction industry business activity index is 52.8%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points, reflecting a return to expansion in the construction sector[7]

Economic Overview - October economic data shows a continued weakening trend, with industrial added value growing by 4.9% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations[1] - Retail sales in October increased by 2.9% year-on-year, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, marking five consecutive months of decline[4] - Fixed asset investment from January to October decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, with October showing a significant drop of 12.2%[7] Production Insights - The industrial production index for October reflects a 4.9% year-on-year growth, with a month-on-month increase of 0.17%[3] - New growth drivers are emerging, particularly in high-tech manufacturing, which grew by 7.2%, outpacing overall industrial growth[16] - Service sector production index rose by 4.6% year-on-year, although this was impacted by last year's high base[17] Consumption Trends - The consumption of automobiles, home appliances, and furniture has significantly weakened, contrasting with the resilience seen in communication equipment[4] - Jewelry retail sales showed strong growth at 37.6% year-on-year, driven by asset allocation and recovery in wedding-related spending[21] - The "old-for-new" policy's effectiveness is diminishing, leading to anticipated pressure on retail sales in the fourth quarter[20] Investment Dynamics - Manufacturing investment saw a year-on-year decline of 6.7% in October, with a cumulative growth of only 2.7% from January to October[37] - Infrastructure investment remains weak, with a year-on-year decrease of 12.1% in October, continuing a downward trend[45] - The real estate sector experienced a significant decline, with investment down 14.7% year-on-year from January to October[31] Employment and Policy Outlook - The urban unemployment rate in October was reported at 5.1%, showing a slight decrease, indicating some stabilization in the job market[8] - The government maintains a cautious stance on large-scale stimulus policies, focusing instead on structural optimization and supply upgrades[23] - Future investment confidence may improve following recent diplomatic engagements and the introduction of new financial tools to support infrastructure projects[32]

Group 1: Industrial Production and Economic Trends - Industrial production showed signs of slowdown in October, with expected year-on-year growth of 5.3% for industrial added value [2] - Manufacturing demand has weakened due to pre-holiday demand release and international trade uncertainties, with the new orders index dropping to 48.8% [3] - The service sector experienced an increase in activity, with the business activity index rising to 50.2%, driven by holiday-related consumption [3] Group 2: Consumer Retail and Spending - Social retail sales are projected to grow by 2.8% year-on-year in October, a slight decline from the previous 3% [4] - The effectiveness of the trade-in policy for consumer goods has diminished, compounded by reduced fiscal support, leading to pressure on retail sales [5] - The restaurant and alcohol retail sectors are expected to remain under pressure due to regulatory measures affecting public spending [5] Group 3: Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment is anticipated to decline by 0.9% year-on-year from January to October, with manufacturing investment growth at 4.0% and real estate investment down by 14.1% [7] - Manufacturing investment is expected to improve slowly, with recent developments in US-China trade negotiations potentially boosting investor confidence [8] - Infrastructure investment is projected to stabilize, with new policy financial tools fully deployed, indicating a potential recovery in construction activity [12] Group 4: Export and Trade Dynamics - October export growth is expected to be 3.2%, with imports at 1.6%, reflecting a shift towards non-US markets [17] - China's share in non-US markets has increased, with significant growth in exports to Africa and Latin America [18] - The trade cycle between investment and exports to non-US countries is strengthening, particularly in manufacturing sectors [19] Group 5: Price Trends and Inflation - Consumer price index (CPI) is expected to show a slight increase to 0.1% year-on-year, while producer price index (PPI) is projected to decline by 2.6% [20] - Pork prices remain weak, contributing to overall low inflationary pressures, while oil prices are also under pressure due to global supply dynamics [21][22] - Core CPI is anticipated to maintain a recovery trend, supported by holiday consumption and promotional activities [22] Group 6: Employment and Labor Market - The urban unemployment rate is expected to stabilize at 5.1%, with ongoing government efforts to support job creation for graduates [24] - Employment policies are focused on stabilizing job opportunities, particularly for vulnerable groups such as migrant workers [24][25] Group 7: Financial Data and Monetary Policy - Social financing is projected to increase by 750 billion, with a decline in new loans expected at 1 trillion [26][27] - The M2 money supply growth is anticipated to decrease to 8.1%, reflecting weak demand for credit and a shift towards non-bank financial products [28] - Future monetary policy is expected to balance financial stability with support for the real economy, with a focus on gradual adjustments rather than aggressive tightening [29]

Economic Growth - Q3 GDP growth rate was 4.8%, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter, with nominal GDP growth at 3.7% compared to 3.9%[1] - The contribution of final consumption, gross capital formation, and net exports to GDP growth was 56.6%, 18.9%, and 24.5% respectively[14] - Q4 economic growth is expected to slightly decline to 4.7%, but achieving the annual growth target of around 5% is considered feasible[15] Industrial Production - In September, industrial added value increased by 6.5% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations, with a month-on-month growth of 0.64%[3] - The capacity utilization rate for industrial enterprises was 74.6% in Q3, up 0.6 percentage points from Q2[21] - High-tech manufacturing added value grew by 9.6% year-on-year, contributing 24.7% to overall industrial growth[20] Consumer Spending - Retail sales of consumer goods in September grew by 3%, down from 3.4% in the previous month, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline[4] - The "trade-in" policy supported certain categories, but overall consumer spending is expected to remain under pressure in Q4 due to reduced fiscal support[32] - The restaurant sector saw a weak performance, with dining revenue growing only 0.9% year-on-year[33] Investment Trends - From January to September, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.5%, marking the first negative cumulative data since August 2020[7] - Real estate development investment fell by 13.9%, while manufacturing investment grew by 4.0%[43] - Infrastructure investment in the electricity, heat, and water production and supply sector increased by 15.3% year-on-year, contributing 1.1 percentage points to overall investment growth[42] Employment and Policy - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in September was 5.2%, showing a slight decline, aided by policies supporting employment for college graduates[8] - The government is gradually prioritizing expanding domestic demand and consumption, indicating a shift towards counter-cyclical measures[34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - From a policy perspective, after the Politburo meeting at the end of July, the "anti - involution" policy cooled down, and it is currently in the policy - making stage. Pay attention to the spirit of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October. It is expected that the policy will have a neutral impact on the market outlook, and the black market will return to supply - demand and reality [2]. - In terms of market rhythm, the basis positive arbitrage has entered the closing cycle. Although the peak season is approaching, the real downstream demand for steel has limited improvement. The manufacturing prosperity level is still below the boom - bust line. High inventories of some varieties and the profit - taking of basis positive arbitrage suppress the spot price. It is expected that the market may experience a situation of "no peak season during the peak season" [3]. - Regarding supply - demand, on the demand side, the high - frequency sales data of new real - estate homes have weakened month - on - month, and the year - on - year growth of new housing starts is still negative. Although there are many infrastructure projects under construction, there is still pressure on funds, and the overall project progress is slow. The concrete delivery volume still shows a year - on - year decrease, and the overall building materials demand is still weak. For coil demand, downstream consumption in industries such as machinery, automobiles, containers, and home appliances is acceptable, and steel mills generally have no pressure in coil orders, with a delivery period of more than 30 days. However, high inventories of galvanized and cold - rolled products affect steel valuations. In terms of exports, the State Administration of Taxation issued an announcement that will take effect on October 1, which is expected to have a significant impact on buy - order exports [3]. - In terms of valuation, steel mill profits are acceptable but at a low level, with the production profit of rebar and hot - rolled coils at about 100 - 200 yuan/ton. After the downstream restocking for the National Day is basically over, the long - process cost is stable, and the futures prices of raw materials such as iron ore, coking coal, and coke are adjusted. The market valuation is expected to remain between off - peak and on - peak electricity prices [3]. - For alloys, the supply - side contradiction of ferromanganese silicon is large, and the over - supply pressure is gradually emerging. The medium - to - long - term trend of selling high remains unchanged. The cost line of ferrosilicon is generally judged to be neutral to weak, and the medium - term strategy of selling high for ferrosilicon also remains unchanged. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt pressure of the November contract [4]. - In terms of trends, the black market is expected to adjust in the short term and maintain a volatile trend in the medium term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Policy Review - From July 2024 to September 2025, multiple policies related to the industrial economy were introduced, including policies for coal production verification, ten key industries' stable growth, and enterprise income tax prepayment declaration optimization [11][16]. 3.2 Market Participant and Pricing Logic Changes - In recent years, the black - market participants and pricing logic have changed significantly. In the spot market, futures and spot are deeply integrated, and basis pricing has a large market scale, with the futures market guiding or even dominating spot pricing. In the futures market, the capital capacity has increased significantly (exceeding 700 billion yuan in 2025), and the involvement of financial capital has increased price volatility. The trading and pricing logic has become "buying expectations and selling reality" [19]. 3.3 Downstream Industry Analysis 3.3.1 Real Estate - The real - estate investment continues to decline, with the year - on - year decrease in the real - estate development investment completion amount in 2025. The sales of new and second - hand houses have also decreased slightly year - on - year. The new housing starts have a large year - on - year decline, and the construction and completion areas also show negative growth to varying degrees [48][60][67]. 3.3.2 Infrastructure - In July 2025, 905 infrastructure projects were started across the country, with a total investment of about 179.1569 billion yuan. The top three provinces in terms of investment were Tibet, Anhui, and Fujian. The growth rate of infrastructure investment has slowed down, and the issuance of local government special bonds has shown certain fluctuations [75]. 3.3.3 Manufacturing - The investment intensity in the manufacturing industry has weakened slightly, and the entire downstream industry still faces inventory - reduction pressure. The PMI data has improved. In August 2025, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The Caixin manufacturing PMI in August was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points from July [99][103]. 3.3.4 Machinery - The construction machinery industry ended a three - year decline in 2024 and achieved a bottom - out recovery. In 2025, the domestic replacement cycle is expected to start gradually. In July 2025, the sales of various excavators were 17,138 units, a year - on - year increase of 25.2%. The sales of other construction machinery such as graders, rollers, and pavers also showed different trends [109][111]. 3.4 Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Strategy**: Steel is expected to maintain a volatile trend; short iron ore at high prices and hold; the coking coal and coke futures prices may fluctuate and rise in the short term, and it is advisable to go long on dips; sell high for ferromanganese silicon and ferrosilicon in the medium term (without chasing short positions) [5]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Participate in the positive arbitrage of iron ore 1 - 5 contracts at low prices; maintain a high spread between coils and rebar; pay attention to the long - term recovery of the steel - ore price ratio under production restrictions; hedge the risk of short positions in far - month ferromanganese silicon with long positions in near - month ferrosilicon [5]. - **Spot - Futures Strategy**: Pay attention to the closing of basis positive arbitrage and the establishment of reverse arbitrage positions for steel during the peak season [5]. - **Options Strategy**: Close the profitable wide - spread options on near - month steel contracts and continue to establish short positions in far - month wide - spread options [5].

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a downward trend on September 23, with the China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index falling approximately 1.2%. Major stocks such as Jinhua Technology, Baofeng Energy, Yara International, and Tongcheng New Materials led the gains [1] - In 2023, to maintain reasonable industrial growth supporting the overall economy, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with multiple departments, launched a new round of ten key industries growth stabilization plan. The petrochemical industry is one of these key sectors, with a target of an average industrial added value growth rate of around 5% for 2023-2024 [1] - By 2024, the petrochemical and chemical industry (excluding oil and gas extraction) is expected to achieve a main business revenue of 15 trillion yuan, with ethylene production exceeding 50 million tons and fertilizer production (pure quantity) stabilizing around 5.5 million tons [1] Group 2 - The petrochemical ETF (159731) and its linked funds (017855/017856) closely track the China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index. According to the Shenwan secondary industry classification, the top three sectors in the index are refining and trading (27.12%), chemical products (23.87%), and agricultural chemical products (19.75%), which are expected to benefit from policies aimed at reducing competition, restructuring, and eliminating outdated production capacity [2]

Economic Recovery - The manufacturing PMI for August is at 49.4%, indicating a slight recovery from July, but overall economic growth momentum may have peaked [1] - The economy is expected to show a non-linear characteristic due to increasing uncertainties in the external environment, with a projected GDP growth target of around 5% for the year [1][2] - The market is anticipated to exhibit a dual bull structure in stocks and bonds, driven by nominal GDP growth [1][2] Industrial Production - Industrial production is expected to maintain stability, with a projected year-on-year growth rate of 5.5% for August [3] - The "Two New" policies are supporting domestic industrial demand, while export activities are still providing some support during the US-China tariff exemption period [3][4] - The manufacturing new orders index for August is at 49.5%, indicating a contraction in market demand [4] Consumer Spending - The expected year-on-year growth for social retail sales in August is 3.5%, slightly down from 3.7% in July [5] - The "Eight Provisions" are expected to continue suppressing public consumption, particularly affecting the restaurant and tobacco sectors [6] - The impact of the "old-for-new" policy on consumer spending is diminishing, with a reduction in fiscal support leading to pressure on retail sales [7][8] Investment Demand - Fixed asset investment growth for January to August is projected at 1.1%, with manufacturing investment growth at 5.2% and infrastructure investment at 3.0% [9][10] - The real estate sector continues to experience a decline, with investment down by 12.7% [15] - The overall capital expenditure in the real estate chain is lagging behind economic recovery, indicating a need for policy acceleration [10][14] Export Trends - Export growth for August is expected to be 6.9%, with a potential downtrend approaching due to previous over-importing by the US [17] - The import growth rate is projected at 2.8%, influenced by domestic demand policies and base effects [17] Inflation and Prices - CPI is expected to remain stable, while PPI continues to decline, with August projections at -3.4% year-on-year [18][21] - Consumer goods prices are expected to show limited elasticity, with pork prices stabilizing and oil prices remaining weak [19][21] Employment Situation - The urban unemployment rate for August is projected at 5.3%, with seasonal pressures from recent graduates [22] - Employment policies are being implemented to alleviate youth unemployment, with a focus on creating new job opportunities [22] Financial Data - New social financing for August is expected to be 2.47 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease [23] - M2 growth is projected at 8.7%, reflecting weak credit demand and a shift towards non-bank financial products [25][26]