美元流动性风险的可能性、程度及时间 20251118 摘要 AI 驱动的信用扩张在 2025 年第三季度显著，但加剧了美国企业部门资 本回报下降的压力，可能成为长期经济衰退的导火索，尤其是在与货币、 债务周期叠加时。 美元走强与美国信用扩张的理论预期不符，反映市场对未来不确定性及 大规模开支需求的担忧，科技行业盈利改善受宏观因素影响大，持续性 存疑。 全球经济秩序正经历财富重新分配，类似过去百年的再均衡阶段，旧秩 序衰落，新秩序演化，未来两三年可能触发问题，形成十年甚至几十年 的大拐点，既是挑战也是机遇。 AI 发展可能加深美国经济滞胀，因其资本密集型特性易导致资本过剩和 泡沫，依赖债务扩张，且可能导致传统行业需求下降。 黄金与原油价格对全球宏观经济环境的不确定性反应敏感，油价坚挺表 明需求存在，黄金受美元走强和金融环境变化影响，美元走强或预示美 国国内需求疲软。 美国政府债务问题反映国家信用问题，长期趋势难以改变，可能引发金 融体系危机，需通过科技创新维持竞争力，但增加财政负担。 中国与美国在新兴技术领域发展路径不同，中国在新能源领域领先，美 国依赖传统能源和高杠杆率，面临更大系统性风险，依赖 AI 维持竞 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The U.S. government may end the shutdown, and U.S. stocks rebounded overnight, but the risk of U.S. dollar liquidity still needs attention [3]. - In the domestic market, the rotation of the market has accelerated, with an obvious high - low switch. The large - consumption sector rose significantly on the day, but its sustainability remains to be seen. The semiconductor and new energy sectors declined, and the overall market still supports the index at key levels [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - **International Relations**: The U.S. officially announced a one - year suspension of the 301 investigation measures against China's shipbuilding and other industries. China announced a one - year suspension of the special port dues for U.S. ships and a one - year suspension of countermeasures against five U.S. subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. China also added the U.S., Mexico, and Canada to the export control list of precursor chemicals for specific countries (regions) and separately listed 13 precursor chemicals for these three countries [1]. - **U.S. Government Shutdown**: After a 40 - day government shutdown, the U.S. Senate passed a procedural vote on a temporary appropriation bill to end the shutdown, but the final vote time has not been arranged, and the bill still needs to be voted on by the House of Representatives. It is possible that the U.S. government shutdown will end before this weekend [1]. - **Stock Market**: In the A - share spot market, the three major indexes opened higher and moved higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.53% to close at 4018.6 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.92%. Most industry sectors rose, with the large - consumption sector leading the gains, including beauty care, food and beverage, commerce and retail, and social services. The power equipment, machinery, and electronics sectors led the losses. The trading volume of the two markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen was about 2 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major U.S. stock indexes all closed higher, with the Nasdaq rising 2.27% to 23527.17 points [1]. - **Futures Market**: In the futures market, the basis of IF, IC, and IM contracts declined. The trading volume of stock index futures increased, and the positions of IH, IF, and IC contracts rose simultaneously [2]. 3.2 Strategy - Overseas, although the U.S. government may end the shutdown and U.S. stocks rebounded overnight, attention should still be paid to the risk of U.S. dollar liquidity [3]. - Domestically, the rotation of the market has accelerated, with an obvious high - low switch. The large - consumption sector rose significantly on the day, but its sustainability remains to be seen. The semiconductor and new energy sectors declined, and the overall market still supports the index at key levels [3]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Charts - Include charts showing the relationship between the U.S. dollar index and A - share trends, U.S. Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and U.S. Treasury yields and A - share style trends [7][9]. 3.4 Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Domestic Main Stock Index Daily Performance**: On November 10, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4018.60, up 0.53%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13691.38, up 1.95%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3178.83, down 0.92%; the CSI 300 Index closed at 4695.05, up 0.35%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 3053.86, up 0.51%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 7343.80, up 0.22%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7563.25, up 0.28% [13]. - Also include charts of the trading volume of the two markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen and the margin trading balance [14]. 3.5 Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts increased, and the positions of IH, IF, and IC contracts rose, while the position of the IM contract decreased [16]. - **Basis**: The basis of IF, IC, and IM contracts declined, and specific basis data for different contracts and different periods are provided [38][41]. - **Inter - period Spread**: Data on the inter - period spreads of different contracts and different periods are provided [47][49]. - Also include charts of contract positions, position ratios, and foreign capital net positions of different contracts [17][21][32].

贵金属市场全线跳水。 昨日，因市场预期美联储将进一步降息，且避险需求强劲，黄金价格创下新高。市场分析认为，今日的 回调主要由于投资者获利了结。 据CNBC报道，KCM交易公司首席市场分析师Tim Waterer表示："获利了结操作与避险资金流减弱共同 作用，导致今日金价小幅承压。但只要美联储维持当前的降息路径，黄金价格的任何回调都将被视为买 入机会。"他认为，只要本周晚些时候公布的美国消费者物价指数（CPI）数据未出现意外上涨，当前的 黄金涨势就仍有上行空间。 对于黄金后市，东吴证券研报认为，本周市场避险交易推动黄金价格一度上破4300美元/盎司，创历史 新高。市场担忧主要聚焦在：①美元流动性风险：逆回购的几近耗尽与TGA的持续补充令狭义的货币 市场和广义的资本市场面临更大的流动性风险。虽然TGA的提升已接近尾声，但缩表持续、逆回购耗 北京时间10月21日午后，国际金价盘中突然跳水，现货黄金、期货黄金盘中均跌超2%。截至发稿，伦 敦金现跌1.98%，报4269.526美元/盎司；COMEX黄金跌1.61%，报4289.2美元/盎司。 白银期现的跳水则更为猛烈，均一度跌超6%。截至发稿，伦敦银现跌4.38%，报 ...

贵金属市场全线跳水。 北京时间10月21日午后，国际金价盘中突然跳水，现货黄金、期货黄金盘中均跌超2%。截至发稿，伦敦金现跌1.98%，报4269.526美元/盎司；COMEX黄金 跌1.61%，报4289.2美元/盎司。 据CNBC报道，KCM交易公司首席市场分析师Tim Waterer表示："获利了结操作与避险资金流减弱共同作用，导致今日金价小幅承压。但只要美联储维持当 前的降息路径，黄金价格的任何回调都将被视为买入机会。"他认为，只要本周晚些时候公布的美国消费者物价指数（CPI）数据未出现意外上涨，当前的黄 金涨势就仍有上行空间。 对于黄金后市，东吴证券研报认为，本周市场避险交易推动黄金价格一度上破4300美元/盎司，创历史新高。市场担忧主要聚焦在：①美元流动性风险：逆 回购的几近耗尽与TGA的持续补充令狭义的货币市场和广义的资本市场面临更大的流动性风险。虽然TGA的提升已接近尾声，但缩表持续、逆回购耗尽的 意味着美联储净流动性面临更大挑战，这或倒逼美联储更快结束缩表，同时强化10、12月各25个基点的降息概率；②汽车信贷风险：高利率的持续、车价飙 升导致车贷月供压力激增，进而冲击车贷行业。不过，当前美 ...

事实上，不仅黄金白银，整个贵金属市场全线下跌，截至发稿，现货铂金跌近3%，NYMEX铂跌近 4%，此前均一度跌超5%；现货钯金跌3.86%，盘中一度跌超5%，NYMEX钯跌4.7%，盘中一度跌超 6%。 昨日，因市场预期美联储将进一步降息，且避险需求强劲，黄金价格创下新高。市场分析认为，今日的 回调主要由于投资者获利了结。 据CNBC报道，KCM交易公司首席市场分析师Tim Waterer表示："获利了结操作与避险资金流减弱共同 作用，导致今日金价小幅承压。但只要美联储维持当前的降息路径，黄金价格的任何回调都将被视为买 入机会。"他认为，只要本周晚些时候公布的美国消费者物价指数（CPI）数据未出现意外上涨，当前的 黄金涨势就仍有上行空间。 （原标题：金价突发跳水！这一市场全线重挫 发生了什么？） 贵金属市场全线跳水。 北京时间10月21日午后，国际金价盘中突然跳水，现货黄金、期货黄金盘中均跌超2%。截至发稿，伦 敦金现跌1.98%，报4269.526美元/盎司；COMEX黄金跌1.61%，报4289.2美元/盎司。 白银期现的跳水则更为猛烈，均一度跌超6%。截至发稿，伦敦银现跌4.38%，报50.094美元/ ...

贵金属市场全线跳水。 北京时间10月21日午后，国际金价盘中突然跳水，现货黄金、期货黄金盘中均跌超2%。截至发稿，伦 敦金现跌1.98%，报4269.526美元/盎司；COMEX黄金跌1.61%，报4289.2美元/盎司。 申万期货认为，在美国财政赤字、债务状况持续恶化，全球对抗加剧，对当前金融体系不信任度上升的 背景下，各国央行持续增持黄金，投资者对黄金避险、价值储藏的认可度不断升温，黄金成为最终极安 全资产的长期叙事主导愈发明显，将加剧上涨速度和强度。白银方面美国232调查仍未有结果，现货供 需矛盾进一步凸显。但是快速上涨后累计了一定盈利仓位，注意可能的调整和波动的加剧。 华夏基金认为，金价短线存在一定超买风险，大概率维持在高位震荡，但从更长维度看，支撑黄金价格 的宏观逻辑并未改变，整体韧性依然较强。 桥水类货币资产负责人哈德森.阿塔(Hudson Attar)则认为，黄金市场未来走势并不清晰，走低的可能性 大于进一步上涨。 他在近日接受内部访谈时指出，黄金市场的关键问题是西方个人高净值投资者大幅增持黄金是否具有可 持续性。如果西方投资者像9月那样继续大量配置黄金，那么这轮上涨或许还有空间。虽然难言绝对， ...

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - International gold prices have maintained a high level of fluctuation after reaching a historical high, supported at $3200 per ounce, but require more positive factors for a new upward trend [1] - The marginal effects of previous positive factors such as central bank gold purchases and increased investment demand are diminishing, while the ongoing de-dollarization process and geopolitical crises provide some support against significant declines [1] - Future gold price increases largely depend on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with caution advised regarding the impact of U.S. Treasury issuance on dollar liquidity [1][6] Group 2: U.S. Economic Conditions - The risk of stagflation in the U.S. is increasing, with second-quarter economic growth seen as a correction of the first quarter's distortions rather than a strengthening of growth momentum [2] - Private domestic sales growth slowed to 1.2% in the second quarter, the slowest since Q4 2022, indicating weak domestic demand [2] - Employment data shows a significant drop in non-farm payrolls, with July's figures at 73,000, the lowest in nine months, raising concerns about the labor market [2] Group 3: Inflation and Consumer Prices - Tariff policies have contributed to inflation concerns, with July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a 0.2% month-on-month increase and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, slightly below expectations [3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [3] - Historical evidence suggests that stagflation environments are favorable for gold, as seen in the 1970s when gold prices surged from $43 per ounce in 1970 to $666 per ounce in 1980 [3] Group 4: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations - Following the release of July employment data, some Federal Reserve policymakers are leaning towards a dovish stance, with predictions of potential interest rate cuts [4] - Market expectations indicate a 94.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, with significant probabilities for further cuts in October [4] - Increased demand for gold investments has been observed, with holdings in the SPDR Gold ETF rising to 964.2 tons, surpassing previous records [4] Group 5: Global Gold Demand - Global gold demand increased by 3% year-on-year in Q2, reaching 1248.8 tons, with investment demand remaining stable despite a decline in physical demand due to high prices [5] - Investment demand for gold in Q2 reached 477.2 tons, a 78% year-on-year increase, with significant growth in gold bars and coins [5] - The inflow of funds into gold ETFs increased by $3.2 billion in July, indicating strong investment interest [5] Group 6: Dollar Liquidity Risks - The U.S. Treasury has issued approximately $328 billion in short-term debt since raising the debt ceiling, which could strain liquidity in the financial system [6] - Predictions suggest that the cash balance in the Treasury General Account (TGA) will rise significantly, potentially impacting bank reserves and increasing the risk of liquidity issues [6] - The decline in the usage of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreements (RRP) may lead to pressures in the financing market as Treasury cash balances grow [6]

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - International gold prices have maintained a high level of fluctuation after reaching a historical high, with support around $3200 per ounce [1] - The upward momentum for gold prices is contingent on additional positive factors, while previous drivers such as central bank purchases and investment demand are losing marginal effectiveness [1] - The ongoing de-dollarization process, frequent geopolitical crises, and a declining dollar exchange rate are preventing significant downward pressure on gold prices [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Conditions - The risk of stagflation in the U.S. is increasing, with second-quarter economic growth primarily correcting distortions from the first quarter rather than indicating strengthened growth momentum [2] - Private domestic sales growth slowed to 1.2% in the second quarter, down from 1.9% in the first quarter, marking the slowest growth in domestic demand since Q4 2022 [2] - Employment data shows a significant drop in non-farm payrolls, with July's figures at 73,000, the lowest in nine months, and a downward revision of previous months' data [2] Group 3: Inflation and Consumer Prices - The impact of tariffs on U.S. prices has raised inflation concerns, with July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a 0.2% month-on-month increase and a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [3] - The increase in effective tax rates has further escalated inflation rates in import-intensive categories such as furniture and clothing [3] Group 4: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - Following the release of July's employment data, some Federal Reserve policymakers are leaning towards a dovish stance, with discussions of potential rate cuts [4] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is at 94.1%, with a 62.4% chance of a 50 basis point cut by October [4] - Increased demand for gold investments has been observed, with holdings in the SPDR Gold ETF rising to 964.2 tons, surpassing previous records [4] Group 5: Global Gold Demand - Global gold demand in Q2 increased by 3% year-on-year to 1248.8 tons, with investment demand remaining stable despite a decline in physical demand due to rising gold prices [5] - Investment demand for gold reached 477.2 tons in Q2, a 78% year-on-year increase, with significant growth in gold bars and coins [5] - In July, there was a further inflow of $3.2 billion into physically-backed gold ETFs [5] Group 6: Dollar Liquidity Risks - The U.S. Treasury has issued approximately $328 billion in short-term debt since raising the debt ceiling, which could drain liquidity from the financial system [6] - The cash balance in the Treasury General Account is expected to rise significantly, potentially impacting bank reserves and increasing the risk of dollar liquidity issues [6] - A decline in the usage of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreements may lead to pressure in the financing market [6]