7月29日早盘，钢铁ETF（515210）涨超2.7%。 国泰海通指出，钢铁行业表现回暖，高炉开工率与以往相同，焦化、螺纹钢、线材开工率均在上 升，螺、线产量也边际回升。在"反内卷"政策背景下，工业品价格回升，钢铁价格涨幅明显，综合钢价 指数环比增长4.6%。基建资金充裕、项目储备增加，或可期待基建边际改善，对钢铁需求形成支撑。 整体来看，钢铁行业供需态势有所好转。 钢铁ETF（515210）跟踪的是中证钢铁指数（930606），该指数从A股市场中选取涉及钢铁生产、 加工及销售的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映钢铁行业相关上市公司证券的整体表现。该指数成分 股覆盖了钢铁产业链上下游企业，具有较强的行业代表性，在配置上侧重于周期性较强的钢铁制造及相 关服务领域。 没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰中证钢铁ETF联接C（008190），国泰中证钢铁ETF联接A （008189）。 （责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_cen ...

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 7 月 30 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚 ...

钨的新时代 20250728 摘要 中国钨矿开采指标连续两年收紧，2025 年第一批指标同比下降 6.5%至 5.8 万吨，同时加强打击非法走私和环保督查，旨在控制产量，巩固政 策效果。 全球钨供需关系趋紧，预计 2026-2028 年缺口将持续扩大。中国钨精 矿价格已涨至 19.3 万元/吨，年初以来累计涨幅高达 36%，创历史新高。 中国对重钨酸、氧化钨、碳化钨等实施出口管制，虽短期出口量下降， 但因海外溢价较高，部分产品出口已恢复，如仲钨酸铵出口同比增加 70%。 欧盟和美国均采取措施保障关键金属供应，欧盟设定本地开采、加工和 回收目标，并与多国建立伙伴关系；美国则通过立法、提升储备和国际 合作加强国内生产能力。 美国对中国钨精矿及下游制品加征 25%的 301 关税，旨在重构产业链， 并计划在 2024-2025 财年增加钨库存，可能加剧全球钨金属紧缺。 中国及海外政策导致国内外钨价体系割裂，海外 APT 价格显著高于国内。 中国企业可通过增加对未实施 301 关税地区的出口，保持增长并享受较 高海外溢价。 中国钨矿供给受限，海外供给增量有限，而制造业升级、基建项目及地 缘冲突驱动需求增长。预计全球钨 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the aviation industry is "Maintain" with a recommendation to "Increase Holdings" for specific companies such as China Southern Airlines and Air China [3][7]. Core Insights - The aviation industry is experiencing a slight narrowing of supply-demand differences due to normalization and increased base figures, yet passenger load factors remain high and continue to improve year-on-year. Domestic routes show low growth, while international routes support supply-demand growth [1][7]. - Key financial indicators for major airlines indicate a mixed performance, with significant improvements in passenger load factors for the three major airlines. Spring Airlines has shown a leading capacity deployment in June [1][3][7]. Industry Overview - As of June 2025, the civil aviation passenger transport volume reached 61.22 million, a year-on-year increase of 14.6% compared to 2019 and 4.4% compared to 2024. Domestic routes accounted for 54.64 million passengers, while international routes saw 658,000 passengers, reflecting a recovery trend [7][22]. - The number of flights executed in June was 448,000, up 5% from 2019 and 2.9% from 2024. Domestic flights totaled 384,000, while international flights reached 64,200, recovering to 81.7% of 2019 levels [7][22]. - The average ticket price for domestic routes decreased by 4.9% year-on-year, while the base ticket price increased by 0.7% [7][22]. Company Performance - Major airlines' operational data for June 2025 shows that China Southern Airlines had an ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) growth of 4.4% and an RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) growth of 6.7%, with a passenger load factor increase of 1.8 percentage points [41][45]. - Air China's ASK grew by 2.5% and RPK by 3.9%, with a load factor increase of 1.1 percentage points. Eastern Airlines reported an ASK growth of 6.5% and RPK growth of 10.0% [41][45]. - The overall performance of listed airlines indicates a combined ASK growth of 5.1% and RPK growth of 6.9%, with domestic ASK growth at 1.1% and RPK growth at 3.1% [45]. Market Trends - The aviation industry index showed a performance of 6.1% over one month, 12.2% over six months, and 26.5% over twelve months, indicating a positive trend compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [5][11]. - The total market capitalization of the aviation industry reached 319.95 billion, with a circulating market capitalization of 295.20 billion [3][11]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include China Southern Airlines, Air China, Spring Airlines, and others, with a focus on maintaining a watch on China Eastern Airlines [7].

| 1. | 《有机硅行业供需格局有望改 | | --- | --- | | 善》 | 2025.6.19 | 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 4.4 4.4 12.7 绝对收益 8.6 13.4 34.2 相关研究： 核心要点： 证券研究报告 2025 年 7 月 27 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 基础化工行业周报 近期有机硅价格上涨 分析师：顾华昊 证书编号：S0500523080001 Tel：(8621)50293561 Email：ghh07400@xcsc.com 中国人寿金融中心10楼 基础化工行业市场概况 行业评级：增持（维持） 2025 年 7 月 21 日到 7 月 25 日，基础化工行业周度上涨 4.03%，在所有申 万一级行业涨跌幅中排名第 8 位。根据 Wind，基础化工行业中，周度涨幅 排名前五的股票分别为：上纬新材、横河精密、保利联合、高争民爆、苏 博特；周度跌幅排名前五的股票分别为：先锋新材、大东南、奇德新材、 兄弟科技、中毅达。 细分行业——有机硅 投资建议 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 近期受成本端金属硅价格上涨、供给端山东某主要生产 ...

稀土新时代：需求改善叠加供应收缩，国内氧化镨钕看涨 20250724 摘要 高性能钕铁硼需求强劲增长，2024 年占比达 63%，预计 2027 年升至 68%，下半年为传统旺季，新能源汽车、机器人等领域采购推动需求。 2020-2024 年中国高性能钕铁硼需求复合年均增长率约为 25%，预计 2024-2027 年仍保持 13%左右的增长。 中国稀土供应受多重因素影响，美国 MP 公司停止出口，缅甸进口年初 受扰动后逐步恢复，国内指标增量有限，整体供应收紧。 7 月中旬以来，氧化镨钕价格进入上涨通道，亚洲金属网报价已较年初 上涨 27%，较上半年最高点上涨 13%。 预计 2025-2027 年全球氧化镨钕供需持续偏紧，国内供需状况将在需 求向好与供应收紧背景下逐步改善，推动价格上行。 美国国防部与 MP 公司签订协议，设定稀土最低承购价，打开全球稀土 市场价格天花板，对氧化镨钕价格中枢抬升有重要影响。 建议关注资源属性强、产量成长性好的上游公司（北方稀土、广晟有 色），以及人形机器人、新能源车等下游磁材龙头企业（金力永磁、宁 波韵升）。 Q&A 近期稀土行业的供需状况如何，尤其是在中国实施出口管制后？ 根 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the urea industry [12]. Core Insights - The urea industry is expected to continue its prosperous operation under a balanced supply and demand growth scenario in the coming years, despite strict export policies in China leading to price differentiation between domestic and international markets [3][9]. Summary by Sections Urea: Core Nutrient for Crop Growth - Urea is an organic compound composed of carbon, nitrogen, oxygen, and hydrogen, primarily used as nitrogen fertilizer for plants and in various industrial applications [6][20]. Supply and Demand Steady Growth, Industry Prosperity Expected - Global nitrogen fertilizer consumption is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.7% from 1961 to 2024, reaching 118 million tons in 2024, driven by population growth and food demand [7][37]. - The global nitrogen fertilizer production is also expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.7%, reaching 123 million tons in 2024, with supply and demand growth remaining balanced [8][56]. Domestic and International Urea Price Trends - Urea prices have shown significant fluctuations, with a reversal in 2025. The price gap between domestic and international markets has exceeded 1400 RMB/ton as of July 11, 2025, indicating a synchronized upward trend despite strict export policies [9][78]. Key Companies: Hualu Hengsheng & Yuntu Holdings - Hualu Hengsheng is leveraging its flexible industrial chain advantages and ongoing project expansions to enhance its growth potential. The company has a urea production capacity of 3.07 million tons per year [10][84]. - Yuntu Holdings focuses on the research, production, and sales of compound fertilizers, with significant urea capacity expansion planned, aiming to benefit from the industry's high prosperity [10][89].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Macro Economy and Real Estate Market - **Company**: Goldman Sachs (GS) Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Mixed Economic Data for May**: - Fixed asset investment growth was only 3.7%, below the expected 4.0% - Industrial value-added growth was 5.8%, slightly below the expected 6.0% - Retail sales of consumer goods grew strongly by 6.4%, exceeding the market expectation of 4.9% [2][3] 2. **Decline in Urban Housing Demand**: - GS revised the forecast for urban housing demand, estimating it will remain below 5 million units annually, a 75% decrease from the peak of 20 million units in 2017 - Current housing prices are still declining, indicating the real estate market has not yet bottomed out [3][4] 3. **Limited Impact of Export Front-Loading**: - Anticipated "reciprocal" tariffs led to front-loading of exports, with an estimated 5% increase in overall exports in March - The impact on exports for the second half of the year is expected to be limited to 1 percentage point, suggesting that trade surpluses will remain strong [5][4] 4. **Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth**: - May saw a slowdown in fiscal operations, with budgetary income growth at only 0.1%, significantly lower than April's 1.9% - Fiscal expenditure growth decreased from 5.8% in April to 2.6%, indicating that fiscal stimulus has not significantly strengthened [11][12] 5. **Real Estate Revenue Weakness**: - Land transfer revenue fell by 14.2% year-on-year, a stark contrast to April's growth of 3.9% - Budgetary real estate-related tax revenue decreased by 8.6%, reflecting ongoing weakness in the real estate market [11][12] 6. **Geopolitical Tensions and Energy Prices**: - Brent crude oil prices rose to nearly $80 per barrel due to escalating tensions in Iran, with a geopolitical risk premium of about $12 - Two scenarios for oil price increases were outlined, with potential peaks of $90 and $110 per barrel under different supply disruption scenarios [26][28] 7. **Copper Demand Driven by AI**: - AI-driven data center expansion is expected to become a new growth driver for copper demand, particularly in power distribution and cooling systems - Strong capital expenditure expectations for AI-related investments are anticipated to sustain demand for copper-intensive components [32][34] 8. **Modern Dairy Industry Forecast**: - Modern Dairy, a joint venture of Mengniu, expects a net loss of RMB 800-1,000 million in the first half of 2025, significantly higher than last year's loss of RMB 207 million - The core operations remain resilient, with EBITDA expected to remain stable due to lower raw milk sales costs [38][39] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Fiscal Space for Expansion**: Despite current economic growth exceeding expectations, GS anticipates further fiscal expansion in the second half of the year to counter deflationary pressures and boost confidence [16][18] - **Market Sentiment and Currency Dynamics**: The report highlights a divergence in safe-haven currencies, with the dollar and Swiss franc performing strongly while Asian low-yield currencies face pressure [16][18] - **Potential for Future Trade Weakness**: High-frequency transport data indicates a potential weakening of Chinese exports to the U.S., particularly in container traffic, which may reflect the impact of new tariffs [35][37]

（责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不 预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参 考，不构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险 等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 光大证券指出，煤炭行业供需维持稳定，夏季用电高峰带动需求季节性上升，港口煤价延续上涨趋 势。当前铁水日均产量维持高位，显示下游需求韧性，秦皇岛港及环渤海港口煤炭库存处于同期高位水 平。海外能源价格回升对国内煤价形成支撑，叠加"反内卷"政策整治，行业中长期预期乐观。中国电力 企业联合会预计2025年全社会用电量同比增长5%-6%，电力供需总体平衡，煤炭作为基础能源的地位依 然稳固。当前动力煤价格呈现季节性上涨态势。 ...

光大证券指出，当前煤炭行业供需呈现结构性特征：铁水日均产量240.79万吨维持高位，显示下游 需求韧性。港口动力煤价环比上涨1.06%至628元/吨，海外能源价格同步回升，欧洲天然气期货环比上 涨3.35%。库存方面，秦皇岛港560万吨、环渤海港2689万吨煤炭库存处于同期高位。夏季全国煤炭交 易会强调电煤中长期合同履约，中电联预计2025年用电量增长5%-6%，行业供需将保持动态平衡。随着 夏季用电高峰来临，煤价具备季节性支撑，板块中长期预期趋于稳定。 煤炭ETF跟踪的是中证煤炭指数，该指数由中证指数有限公司编制，从A股市场中选取涉及煤炭开 采、煤化工等领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映煤炭行业内相关上市公司的整体表现。该指数 聚焦能源行业特别是煤炭板块的配置，成分股覆盖了煤炭产业链上从资源开采到加工应用等关键环节的 龙头企业，能够全面展现煤炭行业的市场走势。 没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰中证煤炭ETF联接C（008280），国泰中证煤炭ETF联接A （008279）。 注：数据来源wind，截至2025.7.16，煤炭ETF跟踪指数中证煤炭指数股息率采用发布方股息率（近 12个月，调整）。如提及个股 ...