Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] Core View of the Report - Currently, the industry's supply - demand situation is marginally weakening, in line with the characteristics of the off - season. This fundamental pattern is expected to continue, providing limited guidance on price trends. In the short term, the market will maintain an oscillatory trend. If there are still positive macro and policy signals in the later stage, staged upward opportunities can be observed [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments have increased significantly on a month - on - month basis. Both Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries have seen growth. After reaching a peak, the arrival volume has continued to decline on a month - on - month basis. Port inventory has slightly decreased. Although iron ore replenishment demand has not been significantly released, there is still upward momentum in the short term after the previous rapid price decline. The supply - demand of scrap steel is weak on both sides, and it is expected that the short - term spot price will fluctuate with the finished products [2] Carbon Element - After the lifting of environmental protection restrictions, steel mills are still actively producing, and the demand for coke is still supported. After four rounds of price increases, coke prices are in a dilemma of rising or falling, and the coke futures price is expected to fluctuate with coking coal. The supply of coking coal is expected to remain sluggish. Although Mongolian coal imports may remain at a high level, the supply is limited. The fundamentals are still healthy, and the spot coal price is strongly supported, but the futures price is still suppressed by the finished products and the pressure of warehouse receipts is large. It is expected that the coking coal price will oscillate [3] Alloys - In the short term, the firm cost supports the price of ferromanganese - silicon, but the market supply - demand is loose, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases. The short - term cost trend strongly supports the price of ferrosilicon, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the price is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [3] Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the inventory of middle and downstream enterprises is moderately high. Currently, the supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, high inventory will always suppress prices, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The cost of the soda ash industry has increased, providing obvious bottom support. However, the surplus supply - demand pattern always suppresses price increases. Recently, the further weakening of glass prices has dragged down the expected price of soda ash. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate. In the long run, the surplus supply pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [3] Steel - The third round and fifth batch of central ecological and environmental protection inspections have started, which will affect steel production in North China. The spot market transactions are generally good, but the profitability of steel mills is poor, and the production volume has decreased significantly. The demand has declined from a high level, and the overall inventory of steel continues to decline, but the inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. It is expected that the futures will oscillate widely [7] Iron Ore - Port arrivals have declined on a month - on - month basis, and port inventory has slightly decreased. Overseas mine shipments have increased, and the average arrival volume is relatively stable. The daily average pig iron production has recovered on a month - on - month basis, but there is still a seasonal weakening expectation. The overall inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. In the short term, after the previous rapid price decline, it is expected to oscillate strongly [8] Scrap Steel - The arrival volume at steel mills has slightly increased this week. The demand for scrap steel in electric furnaces has slightly increased, while the demand in blast furnaces has decreased. The inventory of steel enterprises has slightly increased. The supply - demand of scrap steel is weak on both sides, but the price has a certain cost - performance after the decline, and it is expected to fluctuate with the finished products [9] Coke - After four rounds of price increases, the coking profit has improved, and the supply is temporarily stable. The demand is still supported, and the upstream inventory is low. In the short term, the supply - demand is still tight, and the inventory continues to decline, but the cost support has weakened. The futures price is expected to fluctuate with coking coal [11] Coking Coal - The supply is expected to remain sluggish. Although Mongolian coal imports may remain at a high level, the supply is limited. The fundamentals are still healthy, and the spot coal price is strongly supported, but the futures price is still suppressed by the finished products and the pressure of warehouse receipts is large. It is expected that the coking coal price will oscillate [13] Glass - The supply is expected to be disrupted. The inventory of middle and downstream enterprises is moderately high, and the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, high inventory will always suppress prices, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [13] Soda Ash - The cost of the soda ash industry has increased, providing obvious bottom support. However, the surplus supply - demand pattern always suppresses price increases. Recently, the further weakening of glass prices has dragged down the expected price of soda ash. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate. In the long run, the surplus supply pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [14] Ferromanganese - Silicon - The price of ferromanganese - silicon is supported by cost in the short term, but the market supply - demand is loose, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [17] Ferrosilicon - The short - term cost trend strongly supports the price of ferrosilicon, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the price is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [18]

2025年11月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：高位反复 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：高位反复 | 7 | | 焦煤：高位反复 | 7 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 8 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 10 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 铁矿石：高位反复 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | | 760. 5 | -17.0 | -2. 19% | | | l 2601 | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(于) | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Iron ore is expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][4]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coil, due to weak current situation and weakening expectations, steel prices may experience a slight correction [2][7]. - Silicon iron and manganese silicon are likely to have wide - range oscillations [2][10]. - Coke and coking coal will have weak oscillations due to the repeated macro - expectations [2][14]. - Logs will fluctuate repeatedly [2][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: Futures price (12601) closed at 804.5 yuan/ton, up 9.5 yuan or 1.19%. Spot prices of various imported ores decreased by 2 yuan/ton, while some domestic ores remained unchanged. The basis and some spreads changed [4]. - **News**: This year's first three quarters, China's goods trade imports and exports were 33.61 trillion yuan, up 4% year - on - year. In September, imports and exports were 4.04 trillion yuan, up 8% year - on - year [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of RB2601 and HC2601 decreased. Spot prices in major regions also declined. There were changes in trading volume, open interest, basis, and spreads [7]. - **News**: In October 2025, the US announced export controls on rare earths and other related items from China, imposing a 100% tariff. In August 2025, China's steel exports decreased slightly, while imports increased. According to the October 8th weekly data, steel production decreased, inventory increased, and apparent demand decreased [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral view [9]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon decreased. Spot prices of silicon manganese decreased by 30 yuan/ton, and there were changes in various spreads [10]. - **News**: On October 13th, the prices of silicon iron 72 in some regions decreased. Hebei Steel's 10 - month silicon iron and manganese silicon tenders decreased in quantity. Yunnan Kunsteel's silicon iron purchase price decreased [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both silicon iron and manganese silicon is 0, indicating a neutral view [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of JM2601 and J2601 decreased. Spot prices of some coking coals decreased, while most coke prices remained unchanged. There were changes in basis and spreads [14]. - **News**: China responded to the US threat of imposing tariffs, stating that corresponding measures would be taken if the US persists [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral view [15]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts changed. Spot prices of some log varieties remained stable, while some had slight changes [17]. - **News**: This year's first three quarters, China's goods trade imports and exports were 33.61 trillion yuan, up 4% year - on - year. In September, imports and exports were 4.04 trillion yuan, up 8% year - on - year [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for logs is 0, indicating a neutral view [19].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, primarily due to fluctuations in raw material prices and weak downstream demand [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.87% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 111 million yuan, down 27.60% year-on-year [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 109 million yuan, a decrease of 26.01% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, revenue was 1.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 21.93% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 6.11% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in Q2 was 30 million yuan, down 63.87% year-on-year and 63.07% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items in Q2 was 32 million yuan, a decrease of 61.33% year-on-year and 58.41% quarter-on-quarter [1] Industry Dynamics - The fluctuation in raw material prices, particularly the increase in pure benzene prices, led to a rise in caprolactam prices, which subsequently weakened procurement willingness in the downstream market [2] - In Q2 2025, the average price of caprolactam was 9,193 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.65% compared to Q1 [2] - The PA6 chip average price in Q2 2025 was 10,270 yuan/ton, also down 12.65% from Q1 [2] - The nylon chip industry is expected to reach a production capacity of 8.5 million tons and a production volume of 7 million tons by the end of 2025, with demand at 6.4 million tons [2] - The company has a competitive edge in high-end nylon chip segments and has adjusted its production projects to align with market conditions [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to enhance its competitiveness with the completion of new production bases and capacities [2] - The company has a long-term positive outlook despite current industry pressures, supported by its experience in nylon 6 polymerization and the introduction of nylon 66 products [3] - Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 350 million, 456 million, and 553 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11, 9, and 7 [3]