·混沌天成期货：贵金属的长期逻辑尚未改变市场开始进入数据依赖阶段 ·国投期货：国际金银上冲持续性存疑关注前高位置阻力 ·光大期货：黄金走势的不明朗或带动其他贵金属的高波动 ·光大期货表示，美国总统特朗普在白宫签署法案，美国史上最长纪录的政府"停摆"正式结束，但从市 场表现来看，依然表现出利多落地，投资者担忧停摆事件将导致美国经济和就业数据走弱，多数风险资 产回落再现不稳定性，但也出现美元和黄金齐跌的局面，隐含市场对流动性的担忧。另外，美国统计局 未能如期公布10月CPI报告，此前白宫发言人表示，可能永远不会发布美国10月CPI和就业数据，继续 加大市场对于美联储12月货币政策准确性的担忧。昨晚黄金出现冲高回落，其他贵金属价格也跟随快速 走弱，黄金走势的不明朗或带动其他贵金属的高波动，投资者不宜过度追高。但从本轮白银表现来看， 显示向上的弹性依然较大，继续布局金银比回归，铂钯也未显著高估，随着国内铂钯期货即将上市，铂 钯价格或继续受提振。 ·MKS PAM研究和金属战略主管Nicky Shiels表示，虽然美国政府结束停摆减少了部分市场不确定性，但 贵金属市场焦点转向另一个更大的问题，即美国政府不可持续的债务增 ...

·光大期货：黄金本轮反弹持续性有待观察 ·国投期货表示，隔夜贵金属震荡盘中波动较大。ADP发布数据显示，在截至10月25日的四周内美国企 业平均每周裁员11250人，是2023年3月以来最大的月度就业降幅。关注美国结束政府停摆进展，市场继 续权衡经济和美联储政策前景。贵金属暂时缺少强劲驱动，或继续震荡盘整，国际金价关注4150美元／ 盎司阻力。 ·光大期货表示，隔夜伦敦现货窄幅震荡，金银比降至80.7附近。美国ADP就业数据显示，10月ADP私营 部门就业人数减少4.5万，创两年半来最大降幅消息方面，就业数据的萎靡提振了美联储降息预期。昨 晚市场在逐步消化美政府预期将重新开门的利好后，美股重新表现低迷，这也加重了市场担忧，黄金一 度冲高回落，但就业数据发布后，降息预期再次提振金价。地缘政治方面，俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫表示， 俄美双边对话仍在继续，但进展速度不及预期。国内黄金新政引发市场热议，从结果导向来看国内黄金 首饰价格已出现较大幅度上涨，国内消费者需要一个适应过程，因此短期对国内黄金首饰需求的抑制作 用毋庸置疑，这或逐步体现在黄金实物需求上，从供求角度看并不有利。黄金本轮反弹持续性有待观 察，后市走势仍不明朗 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - In 2023, global uncertainties have led to increased volatility in major commodities such as gold, silver, and copper, reaching historical highs [1] - At least 1,583 A-share listed companies in the real economy have issued hedging announcements this year, surpassing the total of 1,503 for the entire year of 2024, marking a historical peak [1] - The participation rate of A-share listed companies in hedging activities reached 29.9% by the end of August, an increase of 1.3 percentage points compared to the end of 2024 [1] Group 2: Company Responses - Guoyan Platinum Industry, a leading player in the precious metals new materials sector, has seen steady performance growth over the past decade, achieving a record net profit of 579 million yuan in 2024 [2] - The company began participating in the futures market in 2009 to mitigate price risks following the 2008 financial crisis, and has since used futures tools to stabilize profitability despite market fluctuations [2][3] - Yunnan Copper Industry has maintained a robust performance, with a net profit of 1.317 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 24.32% [4] Group 3: Market Challenges - Guoyan Platinum Industry faces challenges in hedging due to increased basis risk and market liquidity risks, leading to higher and less controllable hedging costs [2][3] - Yunnan Copper Industry has experienced significant price discrepancies in copper, impacting order stability and production plans due to global trade uncertainties [5] Group 4: Industry Trends - The importance of hedging as a long-term strategy for market value management has been increasingly recognized by listed companies, especially in light of commodity price volatility [7] - Companies are advocating for improvements in domestic futures markets and related regulations to enhance risk management capabilities [7][8] - There is a call for differentiated margin systems and financing tools to alleviate the financial pressure on companies engaged in hedging activities [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - 4Q25 macro - tone is generally favorable for precious metals, but price volatility is expected to increase. Market expectations of interest - rate cut rhythm, economic outlook interpretations, and supply bottlenecks of platinum and palladium will drive price fluctuations and asset performance differentiation [13]. - For non - ferrous metals, the contradiction lies in whether macro - level benefits can offset micro - level demand weakness and supply contradictions. Prices are expected to fluctuate widely between the bottom range provided by macro - level easing expectations and the top range formed by industrial fundamentals pressure [2][45]. - The core drivers of black commodities will revolve around policy uncertainty and demand effectiveness. Prices are supported in the early stage but face significant downward risks in the middle and later stages of the quarter [3][57]. - The core contradiction of energy and chemical commodities is whether macro - level easing expectations can offset the fundamental pressure at the bottom of the industrial cycle. 4Q25 will be a bottom - grinding process [4][76]. - For agricultural products, export - country control measures may create artificial supply shortages and upward price risks, while import - country procurement rhythms, quota management, and domestic substitution policies form downward price pressure. La Nina - induced supply contraction expectations and current supply pressures and weak global macro - demand will drive price trends [5][91]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals: Risks after the Interest - Rate Cut "Boot Drops" - **Monetary Policy Path Risk**: The Fed's interest - rate cut in September started a new round of easing, but the rhythm, depth, and end - point of the subsequent path are uncertain. Hawkish risks (slower - than - expected rate cuts) will push up the US dollar index and real yields of US Treasuries, negatively affecting precious metals. Dovish risks (faster - than - expected rate cuts) will be a major positive for all precious metals [13][23][26]. - **Economic "Landing" Form Risk**: The market will sway among "soft landing", "hard landing", and premature recovery scenarios in 4Q25. A "soft landing" is beneficial for the precious - metal sector as a whole. A "hard landing" will lead to significant differentiation within the sector, with gold rising and silver, platinum, and palladium potentially falling. Premature recovery trading may cause gold to face pressure while silver and platinum may benefit [29][30][31]. - **Supply - Side and Geopolitical Risk**: Supply - side risks mainly affect platinum and palladium due to their concentrated production in South Africa and Russia. Any production interruption in these countries can cause price surges. Geopolitical risks will increase the volatility of gold and silver, with gold having a more sustainable safe - haven premium [33][35]. - **Structural Market Dynamic Change Risk**: The sustainability of central - bank gold - buying demand is in doubt. The "platinum - for - palladium" substitution in the automotive industry is a long - term negative for palladium and a positive for platinum. Speculative funds in the precious - metal market are profit - seeking and volatile, which can amplify price fluctuations [37][42][44]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals: Macro - Level Benefits and Industrial Weakness Risks - **Macro - Economic Narrative Risk**: The Fed's interest - rate cut provides support for non - ferrous metals, but different economic scenarios ("soft landing", "hard landing", and premature recovery) will have different impacts on non - ferrous metals. A "soft landing" is beneficial for copper, aluminum, and lithium to different extents. A "hard landing" will hit all industrial non - ferrous metals. Premature recovery trading will bring a "Davis double - click" for copper and aluminum [45][46][47]. - **Sino - Foreign Policy - Level Risk**: China's "anti - involution" policies may affect the supply of polysilicon, industrial silicon, and potentially copper and aluminum. Trade frictions, political instability in Guinea, and lithium - mine supply risks in Africa also pose threats to non - ferrous metals [50][52]. - **Supply - Side Bottleneck Risk**: Global copper - mine supply is tight, which is a strong support for copper prices. The resumption time of some lithium mines in China is uncertain, which creates two - way risks for lithium prices [53][55]. 3.3 Black Commodities: Policy Game and Demand Downturn Risks - **Downstream Demand Structural Differentiation and Total Slowdown Risk**: The real - estate industry's weakness suppresses the demand for construction steel and the entire black - commodity chain. The manufacturing industry provides support for plate - type steel, but its demand may face challenges in 4Q25. Infrastructure investment may also slow down, affecting the demand for construction steel [58][59][60]. - **Supply - Side Policy Risk**: The implementation of the "flat - control" policy for crude - steel production is uncertain. Strict implementation will benefit steel prices but harm raw - material prices, while non - implementation or under - implementation will lead to supply - surplus pressure on steel prices [66]. - **Raw - Material Supply - Side Structural Risk**: Iron - ore supply is expected to increase seasonally, which may lead to price declines. Coking - coal supply, especially for high - quality coking coal, is tight, which supports coking - coal and coke prices and squeezes steel - mill profits [70][71]. - **Inventory and Market Structural Risk**: Steel inventories face a cyclical inflection point. If post - holiday demand is weak, it will lead to passive inventory accumulation and price declines. Iron - ore port inventories may accumulate, which will pressure iron - ore prices [74]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals: Long - Term Capacity Clearance and Prolonged Bottom - Grinding Risks - **Geopolitical and Supply - Side Seasonal Risk**: Geopolitical risks, such as the situation in the Red Sea and OPEC+ production policies, can affect oil prices. In winter, natural - gas supply shortages in Iran may increase methanol prices, and LPG supply may also be affected [77][81]. - **Inventory Level and Industrial - Chain Internal Profit Risk**: The global crude - oil market is expected to enter a stocking phase in 4Q25, which may put downward pressure on oil prices. High inventories of some chemicals, such as methanol and LPG, will suppress their prices. Profit - distribution contradictions in the chemical industrial chain are intensifying [83][84][87]. - **Structural Over - Capacity and Industry Profit - Cycle Risk**: The chemical industry is in a long - term over - capacity situation. Polyolefins, methanol, and LPG are severely affected. The process of capacity clearance is slow, and the low - price, low - profit industry pattern will persist [89][90]. 3.5 Agricultural Products: Risks under Policy and Weather Interference - **Key Countries' Policy Risk**: Export - control measures of major agricultural - product exporters can cause price surges, while import - country policies, such as China's procurement and quota management, can limit price increases [92]. - **Terminal Demand Weakness Risk**: Global economic slowdown weakens consumer purchasing power, affecting the demand for cotton, oils, sugars, and feed raw materials. China's internal demand also has structural risks, and changes in bio - fuel policies can affect the demand for corn and vegetable oils [98][100][103]. - **Global Supply Cycle Risk**: The concentrated listing of Northern - Hemisphere autumn - harvest crops brings short - term supply pressure. The long - term supply situation is affected by policies and climate [91]. - **Global Climate Risk**: The evolution towards La Nina poses risks to the upcoming Southern - Hemisphere sowing season and Southeast - Asian production [91].