研究所 期货眼·日迹 期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 29 日 0 / 45 | 股指期货：年末仍有望冲关 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：偏松的资金面支撑债市 4 | | 蛋白粕：美豆阶段性下行，盘面整体震荡 5 | | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价震荡略下调，国内糖价仍强势 5 | | 油脂板块：油脂技术性反弹，反弹高度或有限 7 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货上涨，盘面反弹 8 | | 生猪：供应压力好转，现货明显上涨 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面窄幅震荡 9 | | 鸡蛋：需求略有回升，蛋价有所回落 10 | | 苹果：需求表现一般，果价稳定为主 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：新棉销售较好，棉价震荡偏强 12 | | 钢材：补库预期有待兑现，钢价维持区间震荡 14 | | --- | | 双焦：宽幅震荡，驱动不明显 14 | | 铁矿：市场预期反复，矿价震荡运行 15 | | 铁合金：商品情绪升温，短期跟随反弹 16 | | 金银：黄金高位震荡 白银激进上涨 17 | | --- | | 铂钯：盘面进入资金博弈的宽幅震荡期 注重仓位管理谨慎参与 ...

金瑞期货表示，此前公布的非农以及CPI数据偏弱，市场降息预期小幅回升，叠加议息会议偏鸽，使得 金银获得一定支撑。白银继续受到工业和金融双重属性影响，在供需缺口和现货偏紧的驱动下强势上 涨；铂钯则在外盘休市和国内市场情绪和资金带动下走出独立行情。而中长期来说，宏观上包括主权国 家赤字问题、地缘风险以及去美元化驱动的央行购金等因素并未改变，金银价格的长期核心驱动因素仍 保持稳健。 新湖期货表示，市场投资热情高涨，叠加国内库存在10月底接近干涸，虽然本月以来有所回升，但仍处 于较低水平，使得国内沪银溢价大幅飙升，创下历史新高。国际方面，全球白银ETF持续流入，全球最 大的白银ETF——SLV（美国）22日单日流入533吨，是历史上第四大单日流入量。同时COMEX白银通 知交割单量持续增加，目前仍未看到交割压力缓解迹象。预计白银在12月底交割前可能仍有一定上涨空 间，但追高风险较大，建议投资者谨慎考虑。中长期来看，央行购金具有持续性，叠加全球货币的泛滥 和去美元化趋势不可逆甚至加速，将继续支撑贵金属中枢上行，后续贵金属可能仍偏强。 金瑞期货：宏观与低库存共振，银价保持强势 新湖期货：白银在12月底交割前可能仍有一定上 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 26 日 0 / 50 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：合力冲刺收关战 4 | | --- | | 国债期货：期债反弹受阻 5 | | 蛋白粕：供应整体宽松 | 盘面持续承压 6 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价继续上涨 | 国内糖价跟随 6 | | 油脂板块：油脂技术性反弹 8 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货稳定，盘面底部震荡 8 | | | 生猪：供应整体宽松 | 现货略有回落 9 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面偏弱震荡 10 | | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般 | 蛋价有所回落 10 | | 苹果：需求表现一般 | 果价稳定为主 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：新棉销售较好 | 棉价震荡偏强 12 | | 钢材：补库预期有待兑现，钢价维持区间震荡 14 | | --- | | 双焦：宽幅震荡 14 | | 铁矿：市场预期反复，矿价偏弱运行 15 | | 铁合金：成本支撑叠加反内卷预期，短期跟随反弹 16 | | 金银：国内白银独立走强, 黄金温和回升 17 | | --- | | 铂钯：盘面进入资金博弈的宽幅 ...

铂期货主力涨近10%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 12月23日盘中，铂期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至619.95元。截止发稿，铂主力合约报 618.25元，涨幅9.70%。 铂钯作为贵金属的一员，其自身金融属性得以阶段性强化，近期价格上涨显著受益于市场风险偏好回升 及金银价格突破的溢出效应，国内铂钯期货上市也进一步催生了铂钯的增量投资需求。伴随着市场情绪 的快速发酵，铂钯价格波动与风险同步放大，考虑到当前铂钯持仓量仍偏低，盘面波动难以快速收敛。 而在现货结构性矛盾尚未解决及宏观宽松预期升温的背景下，预期2026年铂金仍具备一定配置价值。 国信期货：铂族金属的强势表现延续 铂族金属的强势表现延续，主要受到贵金属板块整体情绪及资金轮动的共同支撑。尽管宏观层面美联储 理事米兰最新表态相较之前略偏谨慎，但市场对长期宽松的预期并未扭转，叠加地缘局势仍存不确定 性，继续为包括铂钯在内的贵金属提供配置逻辑。在价格连续大幅上涨、屡创新高之后，市场已进入高 波动、高敏感阶段。预计短期内铂钯仍有望维持偏强走势，但需警惕情绪过热后资金获利了结可能引发 的剧烈震荡。 紫金天风期货 预期2026年 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, No. 05 Contract of Rapeseed Oil, Benzene Ethylene [1] - Neutral (Oscillation): Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Alumina, Zinc, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, High - Ash Coal, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Steam, PP, PVC, LPG, Shipping [1] Core Views - After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. However, further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - The macro - sentiment has improved, and the prices of some metals such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are showing upward trends, while the fundamentals of some metals like alumina remain weak [1]. - In the non - ferrous metal industry, the production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, which has an impact on the market [1]. - In the stainless - steel industry, raw material prices are stable, inventory is decreasing, and production cuts are increasing [1]. - In the precious - metal and new - energy sectors, gold has reached a new high, and silver, platinum, and palladium are also bullish, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - In the black - metal industry, the black - metal sector has experienced a resonance decline, but there are signs of stabilization [1]. - In the agricultural - product market, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and attention should be paid to various factors such as policies, weather, and inventories [1]. - In the energy - chemical industry, different products are affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, showing different price trends [1]. Summaries by Related Categories Macro - Financial - Stock Index: After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. Further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year, with the stock index mainly oscillating [1]. - Treasury Bond: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has led to a recovery in market risk appetite, and copper prices are running strongly [1]. - Aluminum: With limited industrial drive and improved macro - sentiment, aluminum prices are oscillating strongly [1]. - Alumina: The domestic fundamentals remain weak, and the price will remain low in the short term [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has moved up, but the zinc price is under pressure due to news such as LME position limits. Attention can be paid to low - buying opportunities [1]. - Nickel: The US inflation has slowed down more than expected, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has warmed the macro - sentiment. The production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, and the global nickel inventory is still high. The Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly recently and may run strongly in the short term. The long - term primary nickel market remains in a surplus pattern [1]. - Stainless Steel: The price of raw material nickel - iron has stabilized, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The stainless - steel futures continue to rebound, and short - term long - position operations are recommended, waiting for high - selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Tin: The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still tense. The short - term macro - sentiment has improved, and coupled with capital speculation, the tin price has strengthened [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold: Due to loose liquidity and rising geopolitical tensions, the gold price has reached a new high and may run strongly in the short term, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - Silver: Macro - drive, supply - demand imbalance, and ETF position increase are beneficial to silver, but there are risks of short - term sharp fluctuations [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: Driven by macro - factors, supply - demand imbalance, and capital sentiment, they may maintain a bullish pattern in the short term, but there are risks of market fluctuations, and investors are advised to participate cautiously [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract still has upward opportunities [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The direct demand is weak, the supply is high, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Glass: The supply - demand situation provides support, the valuation is low, and the price fluctuates strongly in the short term due to sentiment [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: After the negative news was released, there are signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to whether downstream enterprises will start winter - storage replenishment [1]. - High - Ash Coal: Although high - frequency data have improved, it is difficult to change the expectation of loose supply in the origin, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Affected by the decline of CBOT and other domestic oils, it is running weakly [1]. - Soybean Oil: Affected by the weak performance of related markets, it is running weakly [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The short - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be fully priced, and short - selling the 05 contract is recommended due to the expected high yield in the global main production areas [1]. - Cotton: There is support from the purchase price of seed cotton, and there is rigid replenishment demand in the downstream. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no drive", and attention should be paid to policies, planting area, and demand in the future [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling in the market. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below, but there is a lack of continuous drive in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Wheat and Corn: The market supply - demand tension has eased, but farmers are reluctant to sell, and the inventory is at a low level. There is expected to be some replenishment demand before the Spring Festival, which limits the decline of the price [1]. - Pulp: Affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations, it fluctuates greatly. Unilateral operations are recommended to wait and see, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads can be considered for the spread [1]. - Log: Affected by the decline of external quotes and spot prices, the 01 contract is under pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, but the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Fuel Oil: It follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, and the supply of raw - material Marey crude oil is sufficient [1]. - Asphalt: The profit is relatively high, and it is affected by factors such as production - demand and cost [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: It is affected by factors such as inventory increase, cost decline, and policy changes [1]. - Short - Fiber: It closely follows the cost fluctuations [1]. - Steam: It is affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PVC: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is oscillating within a range [1]. - LPG: After the price correction, it maintains range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to the impact of natural gas on the near - month price and the decline of the far - month spread [1]. - Shipping: The price increase in December was less than expected, the supply of shipping capacity was relatively loose, and the market was affected by various factors [1].

【机构分析】 转自：新华财经 •凯投宏观：英国经济状况略显改善 •中信建投：美国CPI超预期降温 继续助推有色牛市 •圣诞假期流动性稀薄或放大黄金当前涨幅 •研究显示特朗普关税政策重创德国汽车出口 •摩根大通：日本央行可能继续加息 •野村证券：触发日本当局干预的具体水平尚不确定 但大胆行动可能已为时不远 •阿根廷外国直接投资22年来首现负增长 •阿根廷PxQ咨询公司近日发布报告说，2025年阿根廷外国直接投资22年来首次出现负增长。报告说， 基于阿根廷央行近日发布的信息测算，2025年1月至11月期间，阿根廷外国直接投资为负15.2亿美元， 为2003年以来首次出现负增长。外国直接投资出现负增长的主要原因是大量跨国企业退出阿根廷市场或 将在阿业务出售给当地企业。据悉，有阿根廷央行人士确认，外国直接投资负增长是由于跨国企业出售 当地业务所致。2023年12月以来，已有数十家跨国企业由于全球战略调整或对阿根廷宏观经济缺乏信心 而撤离该国。近两年来，阿根廷通胀居高不下，本币汇率剧烈波动，削弱了企业的盈利预期和投资意 愿。 编辑：马萌伟 •凯投宏观经济学家Alex Kerr指出，尽管数据显示英国第三季度GDP仅环比增 ...

中信建投金属行业首席王介超认为，黄金、白银、铂钯等贵金属价格大幅飙升，锡、铜、铝等工业金属 亦表现强势。一面是充裕的流动性，一面是供给的强约束，推动商品价格不断挑战阶段性高点。另外， 基础原材料对经济发展的重要性越来越被相关国家重视，甚至启用关税的手段获得这类产品，加剧了市 场的区域性缺口，进一步推动价格的上行。 12月22日早盘，国内外黄金、白银期货继续走高。现货白银首次站上69美元/盎司，今年迄今累涨近 139%；现货黄金首次站上4400美元/盎司，今年迄今累涨近68%。 消息面上，市场对美联储2026年降息的预期持续升温，以及随着圣诞假期和新年假期的临近，地缘不确 定性增加，为金价提供支撑。 银河证券首席策略分析师杨超认为，美联储降息预期构成贵金属价格上涨的核心支撑，但地缘局势缓和 压制了涨幅。白银价格上涨幅度超过黄金，白银价格弹性远高于黄金，且白银整体流动性相对较小，大 资金涌入易放大白银价格的波动。中长期看，白银工业需求例如绿色能源、人工智能领域的故事仍有潜 力，但前提是能度过短期的市场泡沫。在全球央行购金、美元走弱、外汇储备"多元化"需求以及实际利 率预期下行的背景下，金银比有望进一步收敛，白银或 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 22 日 0 / 50 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：周初仍有上攻动力 4 | | --- | | 国债期货：降息预期稍有升温，但潜在利空尚存 5 | | 蛋白粕：供应压力体现 粕类持续回落 6 | | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价大涨 预计短期维持底部震荡 6 | | 油脂板块：油脂呈现震荡偏弱，整体仍缺乏驱动 8 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货回落，盘面底部震荡 8 | | 生猪：供应压力体现 现货逐步回落 9 | | 花生：花生现货回落，花生盘面偏弱震荡 10 | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般 蛋价稳中有落 11 | | 苹果：需求表现一般 果价稳定为主 12 | | 棉花-棉纱：新棉销售较好 棉价震荡偏强 13 | | 钢材：补库预期有待兑现，钢价维持区间震荡 14 | | --- | | 双焦：底部反弹，关注交易逻辑的变化 14 | | 铁矿：市场预期反复，矿价震荡运行 15 | | 铁合金：成本支撑叠加反内卷预期，短期跟随反弹 16 | | 金银：降息阻碍减少 金稳银强延续 17 | | --- | | 铂钯：交投热情过度 ...

2025/12/22 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 长江期货贵金属周报 目录 01 行情回顾 02 周度观点 03 海外宏观经济指标 04 当周重要经济数据 05 当周重要宏观事件和政策 06 库存 07 基金持仓 08 本周关注重点 01 行情回顾：上周 2500 2700 2900 3100 3300 3500 3700 3900 4100 4300 4500 2025-01-02 2025-02-02 2025-03-02 2025-04-02 2025-05-02 2025-06-02 2025-07-02 2025-08-02 2025-09-02 2025-10-02 2025-11-02 2025-12-02 美国11月失业率升至4.6%，上升程度超预期，降息预 期升温，黄金价格偏强震荡。截至上周五，美黄金报收 4369美元/盎司，周内上涨0.9%，关注上方压力位4430， 下方支撑位4270。 美黄金连：日线 美白银连：日线 17.0000 27.0000 37.0000 47.0000 57.0000 67.0000 2021-01-01 2022-01 ...

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 和讯猎报 12.22 08:21:15 周一 贵金属与工业金属:美11月CPI降温推 动价格走强 【12月22日消息,美国11月CPI超预期降温推动商 品价格上涨】 12月22日消息,美国11月CPI超预期 降温,使市场上修对美联储2026年降息幅度的预 期。黄金、白银、铂把等贵金属价格随之走强, 锡、铜、铝等工业金属表现也较为强势。充裕的流 动性和供给的强约束相互作用,推动商品价格不断 挑战阶段性高点。此外,相关国家愈发重视基础原 材料对发展的重要性,甚至用关税手段获取这类产 品。这加剧了市场的区域性缺口,进一步推动了商 品价格的上行。 【12月22日消息，美国11月CPI超预期降温推动商品价格上涨】12月22日消息，美国11月CPI超预期降 温，使市场上修对美联储2026年降息幅度的预期。黄金、白银、铂钯等贵金属价格随之走强，锡、铜、 铝等工业金属表现也较为强势。充裕的流动性和供给的强约束相互作用，推动商品价格不断挑战阶段性 高点。此外，相关国家愈发重视基础原材料对发展的重要性，甚至用关税手段获取这类产品。这加剧了 市场的区域性缺口，进一步推动 ...