Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Precious metals maintained a high - slope upward trend on Tuesday. Short - term positive factors include frequent hacker attacks on cryptocurrencies and the risk of the US government shutdown. In the upward trend dominated by the interest rate cut cycle, the macro - narrative of the monetary attribute amplifies price elasticity, and the market is not in a crowded stage, so precious metal prices may continue to rise with a high slope in the short term [1][3] - The expectation of interest rate cuts is the core positive driver for gold. With mild inflation and weak employment, the Fed's interest rate cut is unobstructed. The Fed Watch shows that the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts within the year has expanded to 3 times. After the restart of the interest rate cut cycle, dovish expectations are expected to continue to drive gold prices up. The change of the Fed chairperson is approaching, and Trump's control over the Fed is expected to strengthen, increasing the imagination of long - term interest rate cuts and strengthening the macro - narrative of the decline in the US dollar's credit. The target price of US dollar - denominated gold within the year is maintained at $4000 [3] - Silver trends follow gold. The US fundamentals have not shown a rapid decline, and soft - landing trading dominates the market. The suppression of silver's elasticity has significantly slowed down, and the silver price is expected to follow the upward trend of gold, challenging the historical high of around $50 in 2011 in the first and second quarters [3] - The weekly range of spot London gold is [3600, 3900], and that of spot London silver is [41, 47] [3] Group 3: Summary of Key Information Key Information - The US current account deficit in the second quarter was $251.3 billion, the lowest since the third quarter of 2023, better than the expected deficit of $256.3 billion, and the previous value was revised from a deficit of $450.2 billion to $439.8 billion [2] - Fed's new governor Milan proposed that the benchmark interest rate is much higher than the reasonable level and should be actively and significantly cut. He believes there is nearly a 2 - percentage - point space for interest rate cuts, but this view isolates him within the Fed [2] - The risk of the US government shutdown is approaching. Trump will meet with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries at the White House. Lawmakers emphasized the importance of dealing with rising costs, including the medical crisis caused by the Republicans [2] Price Index - On September 23, 2025, the comprehensive index of the CITICS Futures Commodity Index was 2220.36, down 0.73%; the Commodity 20 Index was 2492.22, down 0.75%; the industrial products index was 2229.14, down 0.76% [43] - The precious metals index on September 23, 2025, had a daily increase of 0.82%, a 5 - day increase of 2.66%, a 1 - month increase of 9.45%, and a year - to - date increase of 35.23% [45]

证券研究报告：有色金属|行业周报 发布时间：2025-06-30 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 5094.64 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 5094.64 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3700.9 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-06 2024-09 2024-11 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 22% 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:魏欣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070001 Email:weixin@cnpsec.com 研究助理:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340124050015 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《铀价有望重启上涨》 - 2025.06.23 有色金属行业报告 （2025.06.23-2025.06.27） ...