证 券 研 究 报 告 其他小金属：节后钨市偏强节奏运行，现货流通依旧紧张。节后钨产 业链快速回归偏强节奏，矿山复工偏慢，现货流通依旧紧张，持货商报价 坚挺。下游企业陆续复产，刚需补库带动交投回暖，但高价下多以小单谨 慎跟进。光伏钨丝、高端制造等领域需求稳定，成本与低库存形成双重支 撑，全链心态向好，短期行情易涨难跌，后续走势关注节后复工及供需释 放情况。个股：锑建议关注湖南黄金、华锡有色、华钰矿业；钼关注金钼 股份、中金黄金、洛阳钼业；钨关注佳鑫国际资源、中钨高新、厦门钨业、 章源钨业，翔鹭钨业；稀土关注中国稀土、中稀有色、北方稀土、金力永 磁、厦门钨业。 一周市场回顾：本周涨幅前十：菲利华（40.02%）、云南锗业（37.77%）、 章源钨业（32.81%）、沃尔德（32.71%）、锌业股份（26.96%）、华锡 有色（26.73%）、中钨高新（26.35%）、永兴材料（25.51%）、驰宏锌 锗（24.35%）、抚顺特钢（24.25%）。 风险提示 新能源金属：电动车及储能需求不及预期；基本金属：中国消费 修复不及预期；贵金属：美联储降息不及预期。 强于大市（维持评级） 有色金属 2026 年 03 月 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the industry [6] Core Views - Precious Metals: The core of gold trading remains focused on hedging and stagflation, with long-term allocation value unchanged [1][12] - Industrial Metals: The expectation of interest rate cuts leads to fluctuations in industrial metal prices, with a tight supply-demand balance supporting copper prices [2][14] - New Energy Metals: Lithium carbonate prices have adjusted, and downstream inventory replenishment is sufficient, with potential for price increases if electric vehicle and energy storage sectors maintain high growth [3][19] - Other Minor Metals: The market activity for rare earth products has decreased due to the upcoming Spring Festival, with overall market performance expected to change post-holiday [4][21] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The U.S. macroeconomic data and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have weakened market expectations for interest rate cuts, pushing the anticipated first cut from June to July [12] - Key stocks to watch include Zijin Mining, Zhongjin Lingnan, and others in both A-shares and H-shares [13] Industrial Metals - Short-term copper prices are supported by a tight supply-demand balance, while long-term expectations are bolstered by potential interest rate cuts and strong demand from the new energy sector [2][18] - Key stocks to monitor include Zijin Mining, Jiangxi Copper, and others [18] New Energy Metals - Lithium prices are expected to rise if the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors continue to grow, despite recent price adjustments [3][19] - Key stocks include Ganfeng Lithium and others in the lithium sector [20] Other Minor Metals - The rare earth market is experiencing lower inquiry activity as the Spring Festival approaches, with price fluctuations expected to increase post-holiday [4][21] - Key stocks to consider include China Rare Earth and others in the rare earth sector [24]

有色ETF鹏华紧密跟踪国证有色金属行业指数，国证有色金属行业指数参照国证行业分类标准，选取归 属于有色金属行业的规模和流动性突出的50只证券作为样本，反映了沪深北交易所有色金属行业上市公 司的整体收益表现，向市场提供细分行业的指数化投资标的。 数据显示，截至2025年12月31日，国证有色金属行业指数(399395)前十大权重股分别为紫金矿业、洛阳 钼业、北方稀土、华友钴业、中国铝业、赣锋锂业、云铝股份、山东黄金、中金黄金、天齐锂业，前十 大权重股合计占比51.65%。 有色ETF鹏华(159880)，场外联接(A：021296；C：021297；I：022886) 贵金属概念持续拉升，消息面上，1月28日，现货黄金首次突破5200美元/盎司，年内累计涨幅超过 20%，持续刷新历史系高。现货白银站上113美元/盎司。 华福证券指出，短期而言，美联储降息预期摇摆，整体呈现易涨难跌格局；中长期而言，全球关税政策 和区域政治的不确定性背景下，避险和滞涨交易仍是黄金交易的核心，长期配置价值不改。 截至2026年1月28日 10:40，国证有色金属行业指数(399395)强势上涨3.95%，成分股白银有色上涨 10.0 ...

Group 1 - The macroeconomic and regional risks are increasing, enhancing the safe-haven attributes of precious metals [1] - In the short term, expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are fluctuating, leading to a market that is easier to rise than to fall [1] - In the medium to long term, uncertainties surrounding global tariff policies and regional politics will keep safe-haven and stagflation trading as the core of gold trading, maintaining its long-term allocation value [1] Group 2 - On January 19, the domestic futures market saw more declines than increases, with pure benzene rising over 3% and silver rising over 2% [3] - Other commodities such as styrene, industrial silicon, and gold also saw increases of over 1%, while tin fell over 5% and lithium carbonate and synthetic rubber fell over 3% [3] - A significant number of commodities, including glass, iron ore, rapeseed meal, and live pigs, experienced declines of over 2% [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the mixed performance of domestic futures contracts, with most contracts declining while a few saw gains, indicating a volatile market environment [3][7]. - Pure benzene increased by over 3%, while silver futures rose by more than 2%, indicating a positive trend in certain commodities [3][7]. - On the downside, tin futures dropped by over 5%, and lithium carbonate and synthetic rubber fell by more than 3%, reflecting significant declines in these sectors [3][7]. Group 2 - Huafu Securities noted that rising macro and regional risks overseas have enhanced the safe-haven attributes of precious metals, particularly gold [5]. - In the short term, expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are fluctuating, leading to a market that is easier to rise but harder to fall [5]. - In the medium to long term, uncertainties surrounding global tariff policies and regional politics continue to support safe-haven and stagflation trading in gold, maintaining its long-term investment value [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [8] Core Views - Precious Metals: Mixed U.S. employment data supports expectations for interest rate cuts, which in turn supports rising gold prices [3][12] - Industrial Metals: Domestic copper prices are fluctuating at high levels, while aluminum prices are declining [4][14] - New Energy Metals: Carbonate lithium prices are significantly rising, with intense competition at high levels [5][19] - Other Minor Metals: Rare earth prices are declining, while tungsten prices increased by 15.3% over the week [5][24] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000 in November, exceeding expectations of 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest in over four years, reinforcing market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][13] - The S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI for December fell to 53.0, the lowest since June, indicating weakened economic momentum [3][13] - Key stocks to watch include Zhaojin Mining, Zijin Mining, and others in both A-shares and H-shares [3][13] Industrial Metals - Copper prices are stabilizing due to unexpected increases in U.S. unemployment rates, which bolster expectations for interest rate cuts [4][15] - The price of copper reached 93,200 CNY/ton, up 27% year-to-date, driven by macroeconomic factors and supply constraints [4][17] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain under pressure due to seasonal demand fluctuations, but long-term demand from new energy sectors is anticipated to support prices [4][18] New Energy Metals - Carbonate lithium prices have surged, with the price reaching 111,400 CNY/ton as of December 19, reflecting a significant increase from earlier in the year [5][23] - The demand for lithium remains strong, particularly in the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors, despite some price resistance from downstream buyers [5][20] - Key stocks to consider include Ganfeng Lithium, Yahua Industrial, and others [5][23] Other Minor Metals - Rare earth prices are on a downward trend, with prices for praseodymium and neodymium decreasing [5][24] - Tungsten prices have seen a notable increase of 15.3% over the week, indicating a strong market response [5][24] - Suggested stocks include Hunan Gold, Zhongjin Lingnan, and others in the tungsten and rare earth sectors [5][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [8]. Core Views - The demand outlook in the energy storage sector remains positive, driving significant price increases in lithium chemical products [4]. - The end of the U.S. government shutdown has led to a shift in market sentiment, with expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve becoming more uncertain [12][13]. - The overall market for precious metals is characterized by a strong performance, with gold and silver prices benefiting from geopolitical uncertainties and inflation concerns [12][74]. Summary by Sections 1. Precious Metals - The U.S. government shutdown has ended, but expectations for a rate cut in December have become more volatile, impacting market confidence [12]. - Gold prices have shown resilience, supported by geopolitical risks and inflation concerns, while silver prices have also increased significantly [74]. - Key stocks to watch include Zhaojin Mining, Zijin Mining, and others in the A-share and H-share markets [14]. 2. Industrial Metals - The market for copper remains tight, with supply disruptions contributing to price support, while aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate due to seasonal demand [15][18]. - The anticipated increase in investment and consumption due to potential Federal Reserve rate cuts is expected to further support copper prices [18]. - Notable stocks include Jiangxi Copper, Luoyang Molybdenum, and others [18]. 3. New Energy Metals - The lithium market is experiencing a tight supply situation, with strong demand from the energy storage sector driving prices higher [19]. - The production of lithium iron phosphate is expected to increase, further supporting price stability [19]. - Key stocks in this sector include Ganfeng Lithium, Yahua Industrial, and others [20]. 4. Other Minor Metals - The rare earth market is showing a mixed outlook, with price increases in raw materials but cautious purchasing behavior from separation enterprises [21][24]. - The market for antimony and tungsten is also experiencing fluctuations, with specific stocks recommended for monitoring [24]. 5. Market Review - The non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.1%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [25][26]. - Notable stock performances include Fangyuan Co. with a 34.59% increase and Yunlu Co. with a 14.98% decrease [28]. 6. Valuation - The non-ferrous metals sector is currently valued at a PE ratio of 26.47, with aluminum expected to see valuation increases due to supply constraints and higher green metal value [35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the non-ferrous metal industry [8] Core Views - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is driving market sentiment, leading to a resurgence in domestic copper prices above 80,000 [5] - The gold market is experiencing a surge due to increased safe-haven buying driven by rising interest rate cut expectations, with prices continuing to rise [4] - The industrial metals sector is supported by a tight supply situation, particularly for copper, while aluminum prices are expected to remain stable due to strong demand from the new energy sector [5][18] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The expectation of interest rate cuts has intensified safe-haven buying, resulting in continued increases in gold prices. The U.S. non-farm payroll report indicates a weakening labor market, raising concerns about further deterioration [4][13] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for August showed a surprising decline of 0.1% month-on-month, with the annual inflation rate dropping to 2.6%, below the expected 3.3% [4][13] - Key stocks to watch include Zhongjin, Zijin, and Chaijin in A-shares, and Lingbao, WanGuo Gold Group, and China National Gold International in H-shares [4][13] Industrial Metals - The copper market is experiencing a tight supply situation, with domestic copper prices rising above 80,000. The expectation of interest rate cuts is expected to boost investment and consumption, further supporting copper prices [5][14] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain stable due to a combination of supply constraints and strong demand from the new energy sector [5][18] - Key stocks to focus on include Jiangxi Copper H, Tongling Nonferrous, and Huayou Cobalt in A-shares, and Minmetals and China Nonferrous in H-shares [5][18] New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices have declined slightly, but downstream demand remains strong, particularly in the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [19] - The supply side is stable, with production expected to increase slightly, while demand is showing signs of growth as the traditional peak season approaches [19] - Key stocks to consider include Zhongjin Lingnan and Canggu Lithium [19] Other Minor Metals - Tungsten prices are expected to remain strong due to tight supply and low social inventory, with prices potentially reaching 300,000 per ton [20][24] - Molybdenum prices are experiencing slight adjustments due to increased profit-taking, but high-quality supply remains tight [23][24] - Key stocks to watch include Jiajin International and Xiamen Tungsten in tungsten, and Jinchuan Group and Guocheng Mining in molybdenum [20][23]