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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - With the Spring Festival holiday approaching, it is recommended that long - position holders take profits on rallies and hold cash with an empty position during the holiday. In the medium to long term, copper is still favored as an important strategic resource in the China - US game and a substitute asset allocation for precious metals, considering the tight copper concentrate supply and the booming demand for green copper. The short - term focus range for Shanghai copper is [96,000, 105,000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [12,500, 13,500] US dollars/ton [6][96]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Viewpoint Summary - The overall macro situation is mixed. With the Spring Festival approaching, market risk - aversion sentiment rises. The traditional off - season leads to weak demand, and the high global visible copper inventory suppresses the upside space of copper prices. Long - position holders are advised to take profits on rallies and hold cash with an empty position during the holiday. In the long - run, copper is promising due to its strategic importance and the background of tight copper concentrate and growing green copper demand [6][96]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - In the US, employment data is poor. In January, ADP employment increased by 41,000, lower than the expected 45,000. The initial jobless claims dropped to 209,000, and the continuing jobless claims continued to decline, indicating overall stability in the job market. The January manufacturing PMI data shows that the service sector is strong while the manufacturing sector contracts slightly. The US 1 - month CPI and core CPI inflation pressures are generally controllable. The US dollar index increased by 0.87% to 97.96, causing pressure on commodities. The Middle - East geopolitical risks are volatile. The US AI stock market has concerns about the bubble, leading to panic selling [15]. - In China, the January 2026 manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decline from December 2025, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing economy. On February 5, 2026, the leaders of China and the US had a phone call. Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chairman led to expectations of "interest - rate cuts + balance - sheet reduction" policies, causing the US dollar to rebound strongly, precious metals to fall, and the non - ferrous metal sector to decline [16]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - **Copper Mine Supply**: Mining giants Rio Tinto and Glencore abandoned merger negotiations. Southern Copper's production guidance for 2026 - 27 is lower than 2025, increasing concerns about supply shortages. The US plans to start a strategic critical mineral reserve project. Congo (Kinshasa) exported copper to the US for the first time. In 2025, China's copper concentrate imports reached record highs multiple times [53]. - **Copper Concentrate Processing Fees**: The copper concentrate TC remains at a low level. The 2026 long - term copper concentrate price is 0 US dollars/dry ton, down 21.25 US dollars/dry ton from 2025, indicating a tight supply expectation [54]. - **Crude Copper Processing Fees**: The processing fees in the south and north regions and for imported crude copper have different price ranges [54]. - **Electrolytic Copper Production and Import**: In January 2026, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1793 million tons, with a slight increase. Due to smelter maintenance, February production is expected to decline. In 2025, the import of unwrought copper and copper products decreased [56]. - **Scrap - to - Refined Copper Price Difference**: The scrap - to - refined copper price difference has recovered to a medium - high level, but it has converged recently [56]. - **CSPT Consensus**: The CSPT group reached a consensus on reducing copper smelting capacity, resisting unreasonable pricing, and preventing malicious competition [56]. 3.3.2 Demand - **Copper Processing Enterprises' Operating Rates**: The weekly operating rate of domestic electrolytic copper rod enterprises is 69.07%, a 0.47% decrease; that of recycled copper rod enterprises is 14.82%, a 0.13% increase; and that of wire and cable enterprises is 60.15%, a 0.69% increase. As the Spring Festival approaches, the operating rates of downstream enterprises are expected to decline significantly [77]. - **Terminal Industry Copper Consumption Forecast**: In 2026, the total copper consumption of various industries is expected to be 1.68 million tons, with a 2.75% year - on - year increase [78]. - **Terminal Demand**: Green copper demand is high in renewable energy and new - energy vehicles. In the automotive sector, the retail sales of domestic passenger cars and new - energy vehicles in January 2026 have different trends. In the power sector, grid investment increased, and photovoltaic installed capacity grew rapidly. In the home - appliance sector, production increased due to the policy of trade - in of consumer goods [79]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - The global visible copper inventory is at a historically high level, hitting a new high since July 2013. The high inventory restricts the upside space of copper prices. Morgan Stanley maintains a cautious stance on the copper market, with short - term risks tilted downward. Only after the Spring Festival in China when the demand recovery signal is clearer in the second half of the second quarter of 2026 may the market have new fluctuations and upward opportunities [93][94].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including companies like Zijin Mining, China Hongqiao, and Chalco [11]. Core Views - The report highlights that despite short-term fluctuations in macro sentiment, the long-term bullish trend for non-ferrous metals remains intact. The Chinese central bank's increased gold purchases in January have provided a strong boost to precious metals [2][41]. - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of copper reserves, suggesting that the Chinese government is looking to expand its copper strategic reserve system [3]. - The aluminum market is experiencing short-term price fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic policies, with a stable production capacity but increasing social inventory [4]. - Nickel prices are under pressure due to a cooling macro sentiment, with significant price drops observed in recent weeks [5]. - The report notes that tin prices are expected to remain volatile, influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and supply-demand dynamics [8]. - Lithium prices have seen a decline, with ongoing inventory reduction, while cobalt prices are also under pressure as trading activity weakens ahead of the holiday season [9][10]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - In January, the People's Bank of China increased its gold purchases from 0.93 tons to 1.24 tons, injecting confidence into the precious metals market. The largest silver ETF also saw a significant increase in holdings, indicating long-term investor confidence [2][41]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: The report stresses the importance of copper strategic reserves, with a recent increase in global copper inventories. The Chinese government is exploring commercial reserve mechanisms [3]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market is facing short-term price volatility due to geopolitical issues and macroeconomic policies, with production capacity remaining stable but social inventories increasing [4]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices have dropped significantly, with SHFE nickel falling 5.8% to 132,000 CNY/ton due to cooling macro sentiment [5]. - **Tin**: The tin market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with prices expected to remain volatile [8]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: The report indicates a decline in lithium prices, with carbonate prices dropping 13.2% to 138,000 CNY/ton. Inventory levels are also decreasing [9]. - **Cobalt**: Cobalt prices are under pressure, with a 6.3% drop in domestic electrolytic cobalt prices to 410,000 CNY/ton as trading activity slows [10].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced adjustments to the price limits and margin requirements for various futures contracts, effective February 9, 2026, aiming to balance liquidity and risk in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Adjustments to Futures Contracts - The price limit for silver futures will be set at 20%, with a general margin requirement of 22% [2]. - For copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc futures, the price limit will be adjusted to 10%, with a general margin requirement of 12% [2]. - Other metals such as nickel and tin will have a price limit of 12% and a general margin requirement of 14% [2]. Group 2: Market Impact and Investor Behavior - The adjustments are expected to stabilize the market and attract funds towards industrial clients and professional institutions, which focus on long-term hedging rather than short-term speculation [3]. - On February 5, significant capital outflows were observed in the copper market, with over 15.2 billion yuan leaving the commodity futures market, and nearly 5 billion yuan specifically from copper [4]. Group 3: Copper Market Dynamics - The copper price has been cautious due to rising global visible inventories, fluctuating around the 100,000 yuan mark for over half a month [5]. - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association has emphasized strengthening copper strategic reserves, which may stabilize copper prices in the long term [5]. - The introduction of a dual reserve model for copper and copper concentrate is expected to enhance China's bargaining power against international mining giants and address supply disruption risks [5].

Group 1: Market Overview - The copper price has experienced a significant decline, with LME copper closing at $13,040 per ton, down $370 or 2.76% [1] - The Shanghai copper futures market also saw a drop, with the main contract closing at ¥102,590 per ton, down ¥2,330 or 2.22% [1] - The increase in LME copper inventory by 2,525 tons to 178,650 tons, a rise of 1.43%, has added pressure to copper prices [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - The U.S. ADP employment data for January showed an increase of only 22,000 jobs, below the market expectation of 48,000 and the revised December figure of 37,000, indicating a slowdown in the labor market [2] - The strong performance of the U.S. dollar has raised the cost of copper for investors holding non-U.S. currencies, suppressing speculative demand [2] - Technical adjustments in the market have also contributed to the price decline, as investors took profits after a rapid price increase [2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - There are bullish factors in the copper market, including ongoing closures and production disruptions in overseas mines, which may tighten copper supply [3] - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees remain at historically low levels, while global energy transition and AI demand are expected to support long-term copper demand [3] - Despite these bullish factors, the market is experiencing volatility from the precious metals sector, which is affecting copper prices [3] - The upcoming Chinese New Year is leading to increased copper inventory accumulation domestically, with downstream enterprises reducing purchases due to high prices and lower operating rates in copper rod production [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (预计 6 个月内，行业指数表现强于市场表现 5%以上) [7] Core Insights - The report highlights the potential inclusion of copper concentrate in the national reserve system, which is expected to elevate the strategic resource status of copper gradually. This move aims to enhance the security of copper resources in China [4][6]. - The report indicates a continuous decline in copper concentrate processing fees, with long-term contracts dropping from $80/ton in 2024 to $21.25/ton in the second half of 2025, and further to $0/ton by 2026. This suggests a persistent tightness in copper concentrate supply [6]. - U.S. copper inventories have been increasing significantly, with a total of 192,000 tons at the end of the first half of 2025 and 259,000 tons accumulated in the second half. By the end of January 2026, COMEX copper inventories reached 524,000 tons, representing 33.2% of the U.S. refined copper consumption in 2024 [6]. - The supply-demand dynamics for copper are expected to improve, with long-term copper prices anticipated to rise steadily due to global industrial upgrades and increased demand from data center construction [6]. Summary by Sections Copper Resource Reserve Expansion - The report discusses the expansion of the national copper strategic reserve, including the potential addition of tradeable and easily liquidated copper concentrates to the reserve system [4][6]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes that the supply side remains constrained, with ongoing global copper resource shortages. The demand for copper is expected to grow due to advancements in core industries and the construction of data centers [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource advantages, specifically recommending Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. as a potential investment opportunity [6].

Group 1 - The domestic copper futures market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main contract opening at 104,950.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 105,810.00 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 2.53% [1] - The market sentiment is influenced by a combination of policy support, including the expansion of copper strategic reserves and the inclusion of copper concentrate in reserve categories, alongside a weaker US dollar and rising LME copper prices [2] - There is a noted increase in copper positions, returning to around 600,000 lots, indicating a potential for price stabilization and a short-term focus on volatility reduction [2] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the market may experience high-level fluctuations as terminal demand weakens ahead of the Spring Festival, with a recommendation to control positions and monitor external market dynamics and inventory changes [2] - The recent price increase is attributed to external market stimuli and a rebound in precious metals, although there is no significant improvement in the fundamental market conditions [2] - The overall outlook for copper prices remains cautious, with expectations of continued high-level volatility as market fears dissipate [2]

Group 1 - Copper stocks have risen significantly, with China Nonferrous Mining (01258) up 7.76% to HKD 16.52, Minmetals Resources (01208) up 4.46% to HKD 10.54, China Daye Nonferrous Metals (00661) up 4.92% to HKD 0.192, and Jiangxi Copper (600362) up 4.02% to HKD 47.12 [1] - On February 3, the Deputy Secretary-General of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, Duan Shaofu, announced plans to improve the copper resource reserve system, which includes expanding the national copper strategic reserve and exploring a commercial reserve mechanism [1] - There is a potential inclusion of copper concentrate in the strategic reserve, which may enhance supply chain security amid declining global copper ore grades, leading to a sustained tight supply trend [1] Group 2 - Dongfang Securities believes that the inclusion of copper concentrate in strategic reserves could further strengthen the security of the industry chain [1] - The outlook for mid-term copper prices and copper smelting fees is positive, with a focus on the profit recovery potential and investment opportunities for copper mining and smelting companies [1]

Group 1 - Copper stocks have risen significantly, with China Nonferrous Mining (01258) up 7.76% to HKD 16.52, Minmetals Resources (01208) up 4.46% to HKD 10.54, China Daye Nonferrous Metals (00661) up 4.92% to HKD 0.192, and Jiangxi Copper (00358) up 4.02% to HKD 47.12 [1] - The Vice Secretary-General of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, Duan Shaofu, announced plans to improve the copper resource reserve system, which includes expanding the national copper strategic reserve and exploring a commercial reserve mechanism [1] - There is a potential inclusion of copper concentrate in the strategic reserve, which may enhance supply chain security amid declining global copper ore grades [1] Group 2 - Dongfang Securities believes that the tightening supply trend will continue to elevate the status of copper as a key metal, with a positive outlook on mid-term copper prices and copper smelting fees [1] - The focus is on the profit recovery potential and investment opportunities for copper mining and smelting companies [1]