2025 年第 48 周 一、中国宏观 宏观经济周报 高频：本周 ICHI 综合景气指数较前期水平小幅回落，保持在临界区间附近，主 要由于前几周节后强劲动能恢复带来的基数效应影响。从分项来看，消费景气 指数较前期明显回升并重返扩张区间，显示需求端韧性有所增强。投资景气指 数基本持平，延续小幅收缩态势，反映在前期基建发力与高基数效应交织下， 投资表现趋于平稳。出口景气指数连续两周回升并保持在扩张区间，外需改善 趋势延续。生产景气指数在高基数效应下有所回落，这一变化更多反映前期生 产强势修复所形成的高基数压力叠加节后恢复节奏的短暂波动，预计未来将逐 步回稳。总体来看，当前经济呈现需求端温和修复、供给端有序扩张的结构特 征，在政策持续托底和生产节奏逐步回稳的背景下，景气水平有望延续稳中向 好的态势。 2025 年 10 月，中国城镇 16—24 岁（不含在校生）劳动力调查失业率为 17.3%，较 9 月的 17.7%有所回落，体现制造业扩张、岗位释放以及稳就业政策 的阶段性效果。从政策取向看，"十五五"规划建议提出"促进高质量充分就业"， 将更多着力于结构性和制度性改进。一是推动教育结构调整与产教融合，强化 青年技 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-11-19 TMT板块反弹 市场分析 青年失业率较高。国内方面，国家统计局公布数据，10月份，不包含在校生，全国城镇16-24岁劳动力失业率为17.3%， 25-29岁劳动力失业率为7.2%，30-59岁劳动力失业率为3.8%。对外关系方面，外交部亚洲司司长刘劲松同日本外务 省亚大局局长金井正彰举行磋商，磋商结束后，刘劲松回应相关问题时表示对磋商结果不满意，并称双方会面时 气氛严肃。海外方面，ADP就业数据显示，截至11月1日的四周，美国私营部门就业人数平均每周减少2500人。另 外，美国劳工部数据显示，截至10月18日当周，美国初请失业金人数23.2万人，续请失业金人数小幅上升至195.7 万人。 股指回调。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡走低，沪指跌0.81%收于3939.81点，创业板指跌1.16%。行业方面，板块 指数跌多涨少，仅传媒、计算机、电子、食品饮料收红，煤炭、电力设备、钢铁、有色金属行业跌幅居前。当日 沪深两市成交额保持在1.9万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指全线收跌，纳指跌1.21%报22432.85点。 IF继续增仓。期货市场，基差方面，IF、IC、IM基差回升。成交 ...

加纳首都征兵活动发生踩踏事故致6死 中新社北京11月13日电 阿克拉消息：加纳军方当地时间12日在首都阿克拉举行的征兵活动现场发生踩 踏事故，造成6人死亡。 据加纳通讯社、"现代加纳"新闻网等媒体报道，加纳军方12日在阿克拉的埃尔瓦克体育场举办2025至 2026年度征兵活动，吸引来大量应征者。当天早上6时20分许，部分应征者违反规定，在安检开始前涌 入选拔场地，导致踩踏事故发生。 加纳军方当日通报称，此次踩踏事故造成6名应征者死亡，另有多人受伤，其中5人情况严重。同时，军 方已针对此事件开展内部调查，并将采取相应措施，防止未来的征兵活动再次发生类似事故。 事故发生后，加纳总统马哈马与多名国防部门官员前往一所军医院探望受伤人员，并向遇难者表示哀 悼。 "现代加纳"新闻网报道称，当前加纳青年失业率高企，对许多加纳青年来说，除了报效祖国，参军也是 能获得稳定收入的少数可行途径之一，因此许多人在黎明前就抵达了征兵活动现场。(完) 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：万可义 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中 ...

Economic Outlook for August 2025 - After a slowdown in July, the stock market's rise in August may not directly translate to a rebound in the real economy, with service sector PMI and production indices expected to improve, alleviating some downward pressure[3] - The capital market's heat in August is anticipated to positively influence service sector indicators, with historical trends showing a correlation between the Shanghai Composite Index and service sector PMI[3][4] - Investor confidence appears to be stabilizing, but consumer confidence is lagging, with a decline in growth rates for automobile and home appliance sales in August[4] External Demand and Trade Challenges - Risks of declining external demand are emerging, as new tariff measures from the U.S. have led to a noticeable drop in container shipping volumes to the U.S. compared to 2024[5] - The "stabilizing foreign trade" and "anti-involution" policies are creating dual challenges for enterprises, with industrial production likely to face further downward pressure in August[5][6] Infrastructure and Investment Insights - Infrastructure investment is expected to recover, with signs of improvement in asphalt production rates and cement price indices in August, indicating potential positive signals in the construction sector[6][7] - The government bond issuance has slowed, which may limit fiscal support for infrastructure projects, necessitating more proactive macroeconomic policies[7][8] Price Trends and Employment Concerns - Industrial product prices may see a quicker rebound than expected due to the "anti-involution" policy, with the South China Industrial Index showing early signs of recovery[6][7] - The youth unemployment rate is likely to continue its seasonal rise in August, increasing the urgency for demand-side policies to stabilize employment[7][8]

Group 1 - The youth unemployment rate has reached the second highest level for this period in history, with the unemployment rate for 16-24 year-olds at 17.8%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points from June and 0.7 percentage points higher than the same period in 2024 [4][6] - Historical data shows that the youth unemployment rate has a different seasonal trend after adjustments, with the peak being delayed by one month, indicating that the rate for August is likely to exceed July's figure [6] - The adjustment in statistical methodology has led to a clearer picture of youth unemployment, with the current rate being higher than all levels except for 2022 [5][6] Group 2 - The probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September has increased significantly following Chairman Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole conference, which were more dovish than market expectations [7][9] - Powell's comments about a shift in policy risk balance have triggered a market response, leading to a surge in U.S. stock markets and a drop in bond yields, indicating a clearer path towards potential rate cuts [9] - For China, the Fed's potential rate cuts may ease the pressure on the China-U.S. interest rate differential, creating a more favorable environment for domestic liquidity release [9] Group 3 - In July, household deposits decreased by 1.1 trillion yuan, while deposits in non-bank financial institutions increased by 2.15 trillion yuan, indicating a shift of some household savings towards capital markets [12] - The total amount of household deposits is approximately 160 trillion yuan, with 70 trillion yuan maturing in 2025, suggesting a potential for significant capital inflow into the stock market [12] - The structure and characteristics of household savings are crucial, as increased economic risks have led to a more defensive savings behavior among residents [12]

Core Viewpoint - The youth unemployment rate in China is expected to show an "M" shaped fluctuation in 2024, with a peak typically occurring between July and September due to the influx of college graduates into the job market, reaching 18.8% in August 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Youth Unemployment Trends - The youth unemployment rate for urban areas aged 16-24 was reported at 17.8% in July 2025, an increase of 3.3 percentage points from June [2]. - The overall trend indicates that the youth unemployment rate tends to rise during the summer months, particularly in August, due to seasonal factors [1][2]. - Predictions suggest that the youth unemployment rate may continue to rise slightly in the coming months based on seasonal patterns [1]. Group 2: Graduate Employment Challenges - The number of college graduates in 2025 is projected to reach 12.22 million, an increase of 430,000 from the previous year, marking a historical high [4]. - A macroeconomic expert noted that the supply of youth labor is expected to continue rising until 2030, increasing employment pressure on young people [4]. - A report indicated that over 57% of graduates from the class of 2025 began job preparation activities, such as updating resumes and internships, during their junior year [4]. Group 3: Government Initiatives - Various local governments have implemented measures to promote employment among college graduates, including financial incentives for hiring recent graduates and unemployed youth [5][6]. - The central government has introduced policies to include unemployed graduates in social assistance programs, ensuring they receive support during their job search [6]. - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security has emphasized the need for effective services such as vocational training and job fairs to facilitate employment for recent graduates [6].

Group 1 - The youth unemployment rate in urban areas for individuals aged 16-24 reached 17.8% in July 2025, an increase of 3.3 percentage points from June [1] - The overall employment situation in China remains stable, with the urban survey unemployment rate at 5.2% in July, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The number of college graduates in 2025 is expected to reach 12.22 million, an increase of 430,000 from the previous year, marking a historical high [1] Group 2 - A report from 51job indicates that while the supply of college graduates is abundant, there are structural issues, including a rising proportion of graduates with master's degrees and a disconnect between some majors and market needs [2] - Over 57% of the 2025 graduates began job preparation in their junior year, indicating a shift in job-seeking behavior [2] - Local governments have introduced measures to promote employment for college graduates, such as financial incentives for companies hiring recent graduates [2] Group 3 - The central government has issued guidelines to improve the employment service system for college graduates, including integrating unemployed graduates into social assistance programs [3] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security has emphasized the need for effective support measures, including vocational training and job placement services, to stabilize the employment situation for graduates [3]

Group 1 - The report from Dongwu Securities indicates that the consumption growth rate among the 20-39 age group has significantly declined, contributing to approximately 44% of the overall consumption decrease from 2018 to 2022, compared to a 30.3% increase from 2010 to 2018 [1][5] - The consumption decline is most pronounced in the 20-30 age group, where their contribution to consumption growth plummeted from 13.8% (2010-2018) to just 0.8% (2018-2022) [5][24] - The elderly population (60 years and older) has become the largest contributor to consumption growth, particularly in food and healthcare sectors, contrasting sharply with the declining consumption in entertainment categories like KTV and bars [7][24] Group 2 - The average age in China has reached a median of 40 years, indicating a demographic shift where the primary consumer base will transition from those under 40 to those over 40 in the next decade [10][40] - The report highlights a concerning trend of increasing youth unemployment, which is linked to the decline in consumption among younger demographics, creating a chain reaction affecting overall consumption [5][17] - The elderly population, while contributing significantly to consumption growth, faces challenges as their income and average consumption levels have not kept pace with the rapid aging of the population [29][30] Group 3 - The consumption tendency among the youth has dropped dramatically, with a decline of 46.1 percentage points for the 20-39 age group since 2020, indicating a shift towards more conservative spending behaviors [34][35] - The report suggests that as the population ages and the youth demographic shrinks, businesses will increasingly target consumers aged 40 and above, who tend to be more rational and less impulsive in their spending [27][28] - The overall consumer landscape is changing, with brands likely to shift focus from younger consumers to older demographics, reflecting the broader societal changes in consumption patterns [39][40]