2025年12月30日 证券研究报告 | 2025年12月31日 社会服务板块2026年度策略 重视服务消费布局元年，看好细分景气与周期改善 行业研究 · 行业专题 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 2026年投资策略：重视服务消费布局元年，看好细分景气与周期改善 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 ◼ 板块回顾：1）总体温和复苏，结构性景气。消费大盘温和复苏，1-11月服务消费增速>商品消费增速>餐饮增速，服务消费占比逐步提升。 2）需求、政策、技术的三重变化。一是消费行为更趋理性，年轻客群注重情感满足于体验消费，推动旅游、演唱会赛事、国潮文化、潮玩 等细分领域增长；B端商务需求仍处于触底阶段。二是政策因素与全球化布局影响企业决策与发展，部分行业规范限制加速市场洗牌与企业 如高端餐饮的变革，海南封关运作打造更大开放平台吸引消费回流，出海仍是重要新增长曲线之一。三是技术迭代加速与商业模式重构， AI+教育、AI+人力等发展提升效率与体验，外卖大战催生即时零售快速渗透下的上游品牌与平台份额重构。 ◼ 行情回顾：年初至今社服板块整体跑输，板块基金持仓回落至历史低位，Q4以来底部企稳跑赢基准。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of "snow holidays" in provinces like Xinjiang and Jilin aims to boost tourism and enhance family engagement in winter sports, while also promoting student health and cultural experiences [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The "snow holiday" concept is rapidly being adopted in provinces such as Xinjiang and Jilin, following the earlier implementation of spring and autumn holidays in regions like Zhejiang, Sichuan, and Guangdong [1]. - Jilin's "ice and snow holiday" specifically targets compulsory education students without encroaching on existing winter and summer breaks [1]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The introduction of spring and autumn holidays has shown a positive impact on the tourism market, particularly during off-peak seasons, indicating a trend towards enhancing tourism consumption [1]. - The "snow holiday" is expected to invigorate the winter tourism market by encouraging family participation in ice and snow activities, thus driving economic benefits for local tourism sectors [1][2]. Group 3: Educational and Social Benefits - Beyond economic gains, "snow holidays" are designed to improve student physical fitness, broaden their horizons through educational activities, and foster family bonding [2]. - The initiative aligns with national policies aimed at promoting the ice and snow economy, as outlined in the State Development and Reform Commission's plan for revitalizing the Northeast region [2]. Group 4: Local Adaptation and Future Trends - The concept of establishing local holidays based on regional characteristics is gaining traction, allowing for tailored approaches to tourism and cultural promotion [3]. - While local holidays may primarily attract regional tourists, there is a need to explore strategies to draw in visitors from outside the area to maximize economic benefits [3].

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of "snow holidays" in various regions, particularly in Jilin and Xinjiang, aims to promote winter sports, tourism, and overall student well-being while stimulating local economies through increased travel and leisure activities [3][5][6]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - Jilin Province has established a "snow holiday" from December 3 to 7, 2025, for all compulsory education students, encouraging paid leave for parents to engage in winter activities with their children [3][5]. - Urumqi and Altay in Xinjiang have also announced a "snow holiday" from December 1 to 5, 2025, allowing for a continuous 9-day break when combined with weekends [5][6]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The "snow holiday" initiative is expected to alleviate academic pressure on students and promote physical and mental health, similar to previous "autumn holidays" implemented in other regions [5][6]. - The introduction of these holidays is anticipated to boost tourism, with significant increases in flight bookings reported, such as a 51% and 99% year-on-year rise in Urumqi and Altay, respectively, during the holiday period [6]. Group 3: Regional Adaptation - The concept of "spring and autumn holidays" is being explored across various regions, with adaptations based on local climate and tourism potential, emphasizing the need for tailored approaches [4][6]. - Experts suggest that the "snow holiday" aligns with local climate conditions and tourism development, fostering a sustainable tourism market by encouraging off-peak travel [6].

Group 1 - The introduction of "snow holidays" in various regions, such as Jilin and Xinjiang, aims to promote winter tourism and encourage family participation in winter sports and activities [1][2][3] - Jilin Province has designated a "snow holiday" from December 3 to 7, 2025, allowing all students in compulsory education to take time off, while also encouraging parents to take paid leave to engage in winter activities with their children [1][2] - The implementation of "snow holidays" is part of a broader trend to reduce academic pressure on students and promote their overall development, similar to previously established "autumn holidays" in other regions [2][3] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have emphasized the need to optimize student holiday arrangements to stimulate service consumption, suggesting adjustments to the academic calendar based on local climate and conditions [3] - Experts believe that the introduction of "snow holidays" can help cultivate the winter tourism market, making off-peak seasons more vibrant and sustainable for the tourism industry [3] - Data from Southern Airlines indicates a significant increase in flight bookings in regions with "snow holidays," with a year-on-year growth of 51% in Urumqi and 99% in the Altay region, highlighting the potential for youth travelers to become a key demographic in seasonal travel [4]

Core Insights - The introduction of autumn breaks in various cities across China has significantly boosted the tourism market, with a notable increase in travel product bookings and searches [1][3][4] Group 1: Market Performance - From November 12 to 16, 2023, the search popularity for travel products on the platform increased by over 50% year-on-year, particularly in Sichuan and Guangdong [1] - Major cities such as Beijing, Xi'an, Chengdu, Chongqing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Suzhou, Guangzhou, and Xishuangbanna emerged as popular destinations during the autumn break [3] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The majority of travelers during the autumn break are families, with over 53% of the consumer base focusing on family-oriented and quality-driven travel experiences [3][4] - Popular activities include outdoor autumn viewing, visits to key museums, and theme parks, with a significant number of students traveling to scenic spots like Jiuzhaigou and Huangshan [3] Group 3: Product Offerings - The company has launched two main themed travel routes, "Autumn Viewing" and "Warm Autumn," focusing on short-distance and local travel to meet diverse consumer needs [4] - Specific offerings include autumn-themed routes in Zhejiang and self-driving tours in Guangdong, highlighting the increased demand for regional travel options [4] Group 4: Market Trends - The implementation of autumn breaks is seen as a positive development for the tourism market, effectively creating a new short holiday that stimulates mid-range travel demand [4] - The autumn break has contributed to a small peak in travel activity in November, alleviating the traditional concentration of travel during major holidays [4]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of "Spring and Autumn Breaks" in Foshan's education system aims to enhance children's learning experiences beyond the classroom, allowing them to engage with the real world and strengthen family bonds through shared activities [1][2][4] Group 1: Purpose and Benefits of Spring and Autumn Breaks - The primary goal of the Spring and Autumn Breaks is to provide children with opportunities to learn from real-life experiences, thereby enriching their education beyond traditional classroom settings [2] - The breaks are designed to help parents manage travel plans more effectively, fostering a relaxed environment for family interactions [2] - The breaks will not disrupt the academic schedule, as they utilize flexible school calendar time without shortening class hours or holiday durations [2] Group 2: Support for Parents and Students - Schools will offer free childcare services during the breaks for parents who cannot take time off work, ensuring that children are cared for in a structured environment [3] - Activities during the breaks will include sports, reading, and practical experiences, with resources such as classrooms and libraries being made available [3] - The education department will collaborate with various local organizations to provide diverse extracurricular activities and practical learning experiences tailored to the interests of students [4] Group 3: Community Engagement and Cultural Awareness - The initiative aims to deepen children's understanding of Foshan's rich cultural heritage and modern industrial landscape through organized activities and local exploration [4] - A social practice platform will be launched to connect families with various educational and recreational opportunities in the city, promoting community involvement [4] - The education department emphasizes that learning is a continuous journey, and the breaks serve as a valuable opportunity for personal growth and development [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has introduced significant policies to boost service consumption, focusing on various initiatives to enhance consumer engagement and stimulate economic growth [1][3][5]. Group 1: Policy Measures - The policy document outlines 19 measures across five key areas, including the launch of "service consumption seasons" and support for high-quality consumption resources [1][3]. - It emphasizes the importance of developing new consumption scenarios and promoting innovative service consumption models [3][4]. - The measures encourage extending operating hours for popular cultural and tourist venues and optimizing reservation systems [4][5]. Group 2: Cultural and Sports Events - The policies aim to cultivate high-profile sports events and cultural activities, enhancing the visibility of these sectors [4][6]. - There is a focus on integrating sports events with tourism, promoting activities like "travel with events" to drive consumer spending [4][6]. - The government supports the introduction of international sports events and local mass sports competitions to create well-known brands in the sports sector [4][5]. Group 3: Education and Family Support - The introduction of "spring and autumn breaks" for schools is aimed at reducing academic pressure and promoting family travel, which could stimulate consumption [6][7]. - Local governments are encouraged to explore the implementation of these breaks, considering regional climate and economic conditions [6][7]. Group 4: Financial Support for Consumption - The policy measures call for increased financial support for service consumption, including consumer credit and risk-sharing mechanisms [8]. - Financial institutions are encouraged to develop tailored financial products to support service consumption sectors, enhancing access to credit for businesses [8]. - The government aims to lower financing costs for service industry operators through fiscal subsidies and financial incentives [8].

Policy Direction - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments issued policies to expand service consumption [1] - Encourages conditional regions to scientifically adjust teaching and holiday times, exploring the establishment of spring and autumn breaks for primary and secondary schools [1] Education Sector Impact - Optimization of student holiday arrangements while maintaining the total number of days and teaching time [1] - Potential reduction in summer and winter vacation time [1] Service Consumption Opportunities - Aims to increase service consumption time, including tourism and travel [1]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of "spring and autumn breaks" in primary and secondary education is gaining traction across various regions in China, aimed at reducing student workload and promoting family travel, which in turn is expected to stimulate consumer spending [2][3][4][5]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - Jiangsu Province plans to introduce "spring and autumn breaks" for primary and secondary students starting in the 2025 autumn semester, as part of a broader initiative to boost consumption [2]. - In Foshan, a pilot program for "spring and autumn breaks" will be implemented during the 2025-2026 academic year, with specific dates set for the breaks [3]. - Enshi has also been exploring "spring and autumn breaks" for several years, with breaks lasting at least one week and aligning with public holidays [4]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The establishment of "spring and autumn breaks" is expected to alleviate academic pressure on students, promote their physical and mental health, and potentially increase family travel and leisure activities, thereby driving consumer spending [4][5]. - The growing role of consumption in China's economic growth is highlighted, with "spring and autumn breaks" seen as a sustainable way to enhance quality of life and economic activity [5]. Group 3: Educational Innovations - The integration of artificial intelligence education into primary and secondary school curricula is set to begin in the 2025 autumn semester, reflecting a shift in educational content and methods [6]. - Various regions, including Hangzhou and Shandong, are planning to implement AI education comprehensively across all school levels, aiming to foster innovation and creativity among students [6].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of "spring and autumn breaks" for primary and secondary school students is gaining traction across various regions in China, aimed at reducing academic pressure and promoting consumer spending during these breaks [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - Jiangsu Province plans to introduce "spring and autumn breaks" for students starting in the 2025 autumn semester, as part of a broader initiative to stimulate consumption [1]. - The city of Foshan will pilot "spring and autumn breaks" during the 2025-2026 academic year, with specific dates set for the breaks [2]. - Enshi has also established a framework for "spring and autumn breaks," allowing for a week-long break each semester, aligning with public holidays [3]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The introduction of "spring and autumn breaks" is expected to alleviate students' academic burdens and encourage family travel, thereby boosting consumer spending [3][4]. - Experts suggest that the growing role of consumption in China's economic growth makes the establishment of these breaks beneficial for both student well-being and economic activity [3]. Group 3: Educational Innovations - Starting in the 2025 autumn semester, many regions will incorporate artificial intelligence education into the curriculum for primary and secondary schools, reflecting a shift in educational content and methods [4][5].