Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Horizon Robotics is well-positioned to benefit from the growth potential of global smart driving, with projected global and Chinese smart vehicle sales reaching approximately 80 million and 30 million units by 2030, respectively, and high-level assisted driving and autonomous driving penetration rates approaching 100% [1] - Horizon Robotics holds over 40% market share in the Chinese OEM advanced driver assistance market as of 2024, indicating a strong leadership position [1] - The unique BPU (intelligent computing unit) architecture of Horizon Robotics is a key competitive advantage, enabling higher computing power density and intelligence at lower power consumption and cost [1] Group 2 - Horizon Robotics is expected to ship a cumulative total of 7.7 million units of its Journey series chips by the end of 2024, with projected shipments of 4.2 million, 4.5 million, and 5.5 million units for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [2] - The company anticipates revenue of 3.43 billion, 5.41 billion, and 7.46 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a forecasted return to profitability in 2027 [2] - A "buy" rating is assigned to Horizon Robotics with a target price of 8.60 HKD, based on a 20x P/S valuation for 2026, using comparable companies such as Nvidia, ARM, Mobileye, and Black Sesame Intelligence [2]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Horizon Robotics, setting a target price of HK$8.60, representing a potential upside of 33% from the current price of HK$6.46 [1][6][10]. Core Insights - Horizon Robotics is positioned as a key beneficiary in the high-end assisted driving industry, with a strong market share exceeding 40% in China's OEM advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) market as of 2024 [7][29]. - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the global growth potential of smart driving, with projections indicating that global and Chinese smart vehicle sales will reach approximately 80 million and 30 million units by 2030, respectively [7][29]. - The unique BPU (Brain Processing Unit) architecture of Horizon Robotics provides a competitive edge by optimizing hardware and software collaboration, achieving higher computational efficiency at lower power consumption [30][42]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for Horizon Robotics are projected at RMB 3.43 billion, RMB 5.41 billion, and RMB 7.46 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 43.7%, 57.9%, and 37.9% [9][31]. - The company is expected to achieve profitability in 2027, with a projected net profit of RMB 901 million, following losses in the preceding years [9][31]. Market Comparison - The report compares Horizon Robotics with peers such as NVIDIA, ARM, Mobileye, and Black Sesame Intelligence, applying a 20x price-to-sales (P/S) ratio to derive the target price [32][71]. - The competitive landscape indicates that Horizon Robotics has established itself as a leader in the mid-to-low-end smart driving hardware market, with plans to penetrate the high-end market further with the launch of the Journey 6 series chips [71][72]. Product Solutions - Horizon Robotics offers three main smart driving solutions: Horizon Mono, Horizon Pilot, and Horizon SuperDrive, catering to different levels of driving assistance [44][60]. - The Journey 6 series chips, set to launch in 2025, will cover a wide range of smart driving needs, enhancing the company's product matrix [62][67].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic decisions made by Li Auto regarding its autonomous driving technology, particularly the choice to standardize laser radar in its vehicles and the implications of chip selection on performance and safety. Group 1: Decision on Autonomous Driving Features - Li Auto decided not to support high-level urban auxiliary driving in certain models due to a significant market demand for lower-cost options, indicating that consumers are willing to forgo advanced features for a lower price [1] - The company compared various autonomous driving chips and chose the J5 chip, which, while not suitable for laser radar, was deemed the best option at the time. The J6M chip, although having similar computing power, will not be available until 2025, making it impractical for the 2023-2024 models [1][3] Group 2: Rationale for Laser Radar Standardization - The decision to standardize laser radar was influenced by advancements in the industry, which have made the immediate safety benefits of laser radar significant enough to warrant its inclusion. This shift is expected to reach a critical point by the second half of 2024 [1][6] - Li Auto's confidence in the safety value of laser radar led to its decision to include it as standard equipment, taking into account the overall industry progress and the company's own product update cycle [1] Group 3: Technical Considerations of Chips - The J6M chip's architecture, including CPU, bandwidth, and AI capabilities, has been significantly upgraded compared to the J5, allowing it to effectively integrate with laser radar, despite both chips having the same computing power [4] - The J5 chip was chosen for its visual-centric design and was considered adequate for the entry-level autonomous driving configuration, utilizing a 10-camera setup, which was competitive at the time [3] Group 4: Customization of Laser Radar - The ATL laser radar used by Li Auto is a customized version that offers superior performance compared to standard models, with better resolution and detection capabilities, tailored specifically for Li Auto's algorithms [5] - The collaboration between Li Auto and the radar manufacturer has led to optimizations that enhance the product's effectiveness, making it unique to Li Auto's vehicles [5] Group 5: Safety as a Priority - The inclusion of laser radar in the new model is primarily for safety reasons, as it performs better in challenging conditions such as low light and glare, thus enhancing overall vehicle safety [6][7] - Li Auto emphasizes that the addition of laser radar does not increase the vehicle's price, reflecting a commitment to providing enhanced safety features without additional costs to consumers [7]