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清华张亚勤:10年后,机器人将可能比人都多
量子位· 2025-04-20 13:24
Core Viewpoint - The future of AI technology is projected to evolve significantly, with robots potentially outnumbering humans in various sectors, including factories and households, as outlined by Zhang Yaqin, the director of Tsinghua University's Institute of Intelligent Industry Research (AIR) [1]. AI Technology Development Directions - AI large models are seen as a cornerstone of digitalization 3.0, with key development directions including multi-modal intelligence, autonomous intelligence, edge intelligence, physical intelligence, and biological intelligence [1][8]. - The transition from "digitalization 1.0" and "2.0" to "digitalization 3.0" involves a shift from small models to large models and from single-modal to multi-modal systems, indicating a broad application of AI across various industries [2]. Five Evolution Trends of AI Large Models - Large models and generative AI are expected to be the main technologies and industrial routes over the next decade, driving innovation and transformation [5]. - The ecosystem of AI will be significantly larger than that of personal computing and mobile internet, with foundational large models coexisting with vertical and edge models [6]. - Key elements of large models include tokenization and scaling laws, which enhance the model's ability to process diverse data types and improve performance with increased parameters and data [7]. Autonomous Intelligence - Autonomous intelligence will lead to personalized intelligent agents capable of self-planning, coding, and optimizing tasks, achieving high levels of autonomy and self-iteration [8]. - New algorithmic frameworks are necessary to overcome current inefficiencies and high energy consumption in existing algorithms, with potential breakthroughs expected in the next five years [9]. Path to General Artificial Intelligence - General artificial intelligence is anticipated to be realized within 15 to 20 years, with significant advancements expected in information intelligence, physical intelligence, and biological intelligence [10]. Future of Autonomous Driving - Autonomous driving is projected to be a key application of physical intelligence in the next five years, with safety levels expected to exceed human drivers by at least ten times [11]. - Large models and generative AI will enhance the generalization capabilities of Level 4 autonomous driving systems by generating high-quality edge case data and improving scenario simulation [12]. - The integration of multi-modal sensor data and end-to-end training will enable real-time collaboration between cloud-based large models and vehicle-specific models [13]. - Future autonomous driving applications will focus on single-vehicle intelligence, with a "vehicle-road-cloud" integration to ensure safety and optimize traffic flow [14]. - By 2025, autonomous driving may reach a pivotal moment, with 10% of new vehicles expected to have Level 4 capabilities by 2030 [15].