2026 年 2 月 12 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】涨价开始向下游传导——2026 年 1 月价格数据点评 1 月受春节错月、鲜菜价格超季节性下跌影响，CPI 同比涨幅明显回落，但上行趋势 依然延续。一是，原材料涨价对下游耐用消费品传导持续；二是，中央一号文件指出 "强化生猪产能综合调控"，或加快生猪去产能进程，预计下半年猪价有望温和改善。 PPI 方面，环比涨幅明显加快，涨价领域进一步扩散，与输入性影响扩大以及国内"反 内卷"政策深化有关，预计二季度 PPI 同比有望回正。 【宏观】如何解读 2025 年四季度货币政策执行报告——2025Q4 货币政策执行报告 学习体会 2025Q4 货政报告中，央行肯定了国内经济工作成果和物价回升的积极变化，对 2026 年国内经济增长较为乐观。货币政策基调不变，提出要稳定短端利率，可能顺应推出 相应政策工具；降息更需要"择时"，但应关注汇率持续升值对货币政策调节的影响； 重申货币政策和财政政策的协同配合，关注到"大资管"行业内部资金流动产生的摩 擦，流动性总体无忧，利好国内股债市场。风险提示：货币宽松力度不及预期，财政 政策落地进度不及预期 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential for increased dividend rates in the steel and aluminum sectors, supported by favorable conditions such as market value management, high dividend stocks being a core strategy for insurance capital allocation, and a gradual decline in capital expenditures within the industry [5] - Companies with high undistributed profits, ample cash reserves, and low debt ratios are identified as having strong dividend potential as they prepare for 2026 [5] Group 2 - Newhan New Materials (301076.SZ) plans to raise no more than 1 billion yuan to establish itself as a leader in the PEEK full industry chain, with funds allocated for projects including the production of high-performance resins and composite materials [5] - Kingsoft (3888.HK) is currently in a period of adjustment for its gaming business, but the stable growth of its office business, driven by AI and innovation, provides strong support for its valuation, especially given its substantial cash reserves and significant equity discount [5]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities predicts that the average stock price of covered Chinese software companies will rise by 16% by 2025, underperforming the MSCI China Index's increase of 23% [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The firm holds a cautiously optimistic view on software demand for 2026, driven by accelerated AI monetization and trends in software import substitution, despite weak demand across various verticals [1] - Overall, the firm forecasts a 12% year-on-year revenue growth for the Chinese software and IT services industry in 2026, down from a 13% growth forecast for 2025 [1] Group 2: Revenue Projections - After a downward revision of approximately 2% for revenue forecasts in 2025-2026, the expected average revenue growth for covered software companies is projected to accelerate to 14% year-on-year in 2026, compared to 7% in 2025 [1] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The firm maintains a selective positive outlook on companies in the Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP), photo editing software, and office software sectors, as these segments show higher growth visibility under the SaaS model and AI-driven initiatives [1] - Conversely, a cautious stance is held towards cybersecurity and real estate software due to weak demand [1] Group 4: Preferred Stocks - Preferred stocks include Kingdee International (00268), Meitu Inc. (01357), and Kingsoft Office (688111.SH), all rated as "Buy" [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the average stock price of covered Chinese software companies is expected to rise by 16% by 2025, underperforming the MSCI China Index by 23% [1] - The outlook for software demand in 2026 is cautiously optimistic, driven by accelerated AI monetization and trends in software import substitution, despite weak demand across various verticals [1] - The forecast for the Chinese software and IT services industry anticipates a 12% year-on-year revenue growth in 2026, down from a projected 13% growth in 2025 [1] Group 2 - After a downward revision of approximately 2% for the revenue forecast for 2025-2026, the average revenue growth for covered software companies is expected to accelerate to 14% year-on-year in 2026, compared to 7% in 2025 [1] - The company holds a selectively positive view on companies in the enterprise resource planning (ERP), photo editing software, and office software sectors, as these segments show higher growth visibility under the SaaS model and AI-driven initiatives [1] - Caution is maintained regarding cybersecurity and real estate software due to weak demand, with preferred stocks including Kingdee International (00268), Meitu Inc. (01357), and Kingsoft Office (688111.SH), all rated as "Buy" [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the average stock price of covered Chinese software companies is expected to rise by 16% by 2025, underperforming the MSCI China Index's increase of 23% [1] - The outlook for software demand in 2026 is cautiously optimistic, driven by accelerated AI monetization and trends in software import substitution, despite weak demand across various verticals [1] - The overall revenue growth forecast for the Chinese software and IT services industry is projected at 12% year-on-year for 2026, down from a previous estimate of 13% for 2025 [1] Group 2 - After a downward revision of approximately 2% for the revenue forecasts for 2025-2026, the average revenue growth for covered software companies is expected to accelerate to 14% year-on-year in 2026, compared to 7% in 2025 [1] - The report expresses selective positive views on companies in the Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP), photo editing software, and office software sectors, as these segments show higher growth visibility under the SaaS model and AI-driven trends [1] - Caution is maintained regarding cybersecurity and real estate software sectors due to weak demand [1] Group 3 - Preferred stocks identified include Kingdee International (00268), Meitu Inc. (01357), and Kingsoft Office (688111.SH), all rated as "Buy" [1]

Core Viewpoint - Guangzhou Municipal Government has issued a plan to accelerate the construction of a strong advanced manufacturing city from 2024 to 2035, focusing on developing independent software systems and enhancing product compatibility [1] Group 1: Software Development - The plan emphasizes the development of general foundational software with independent intellectual property rights, including operating systems, databases, middleware, and office software [1] - It aims to promote the establishment of new industrial software standards and achieve several landmark results in software development [1] Group 2: Industrial Software Focus - The initiative will focus on industrial general tools software such as CAD/CAM/CAE, EDA technology research and application, and common supporting technologies for industrial software [1] - There will be a push for the comprehensive application of independent innovation in industrial operating systems, middleware, industrial apps, and new database management systems [1] Group 3: Cloud Computing and Emerging Technologies - The plan includes the development of a next-generation cloud computing software system, enhancing cloud security and intelligent cloud service capabilities [1] - It supports innovations in high-performance data collection, high-capacity storage, massive information processing, artificial intelligence algorithms, toolsets, and blockchain technologies [1] - There is an emphasis on accelerating the development of new platforms related to machine learning, virtual reality, and the metaverse [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for the government to play a guiding role in enhancing the leadership of "chain master" enterprises, improving the resilience and safety of industrial supply chains, and promoting industrial upgrades through collaboration with universities and research institutions [1][6]. Group 1: Current Issues in China's Industrial Chain - China's industrial chain, while complete, faces significant issues of being "large but not strong" and "broad but not deep," with high dependence on foreign core technologies and key components [2]. - The self-sufficiency rate of critical technologies is low, and many strategic industries still rely on imports for essential materials and equipment, weakening the control of "chain master" enterprises over the supply chain [2]. - The collaboration depth among upstream and downstream enterprises is insufficient, with "chain master" enterprises often unable to receive high-end support from small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) due to their low value-added roles [2]. - The relationship between "chain leader" (government) and "chain master" (enterprise) is not fully clarified, leading to inefficiencies in policy execution and a lack of effective communication between the government and enterprises [2]. Group 2: Financial Support Challenges - Financial support for "chain master" enterprises and SMEs is currently inadequate, with a heavy reliance on bank loans and low utilization of direct financing methods, resulting in high financing costs [3]. - SMEs face persistent financing difficulties due to a lack of collateral and low credit ratings, limiting their ability to innovate and expand [3]. - The development of supply chain finance is lagging, failing to effectively connect "chain master" enterprises with SMEs, which reduces the efficiency of capital flow within the industrial chain [3]. Group 3: International Experience and Recommendations - The U.S. government supports "invisible champion" enterprises through funding initiatives like the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program, encouraging technological breakthroughs in niche areas [4]. - "Chain master" enterprises in the U.S. integrate SMEs into their ecosystems, enhancing their control over critical supply chain segments [4]. - Recommendations for strengthening China's "chain master" enterprises include establishing collaboration platforms between enterprises and research institutions, creating a cross-regional coordination mechanism, and promoting supply chain finance services [6][7]. - Encouraging "chain master" enterprises to globally allocate resources can lower costs and enhance efficiency, supported by government policies such as tax incentives and financial subsidies for overseas investments [7].

Core Insights - The "New Consumption Conference" organized by 21st Century Business Herald is a significant event in the consumer industry, taking place on December 17 in Shanghai [1] Group 1: IP and Cultural Flow - Gong Daojun, Vice President of Kingsoft, delivered a keynote speech titled "The Coordinates of IP and Cultural Flow," emphasizing the lack of a common understanding of IP within the industry [3] - The speech aimed to clarify the core logic of IP and its development trajectory in the consumer sector through two paths: extracting commonalities of IP products from a classification perspective and outlining the development path of IP in the consumption field [3] - Gong proposed a "two-dimensional quadrant analysis" to categorize entertainment consumption IP products based on "narrative" and "interactivity" [4] Group 2: IP Product Classification - The classification includes four categories: 1. High narrative + high interactivity: represented by video games, providing strong immersion and engagement [4] 2. High narrative + low interactivity: such as movies and short films, where the audience primarily participates through viewing [4] 3. Low narrative + low interactivity: typified by trendy toys and blind boxes, which establish emotional connections through symbolic imagery [4] 4. Low narrative + high interactivity: certain sports products or game branches focusing on strong interactive experiences without complex story support [4] Group 3: Cultural Flow and IP Development - Gong reviewed the historical trajectory of foreign entertainment IP entering China and the reverse flow of Chinese IP abroad, highlighting key phases from the 1960s to the present [5] - He noted significant milestones, such as the entry of Japanese anime and Hollywood films in the 1980s and the rise of Korean culture in the 2000s, driven by technological advancements [5] - The success of Chinese IP overseas was illustrated through examples like Kingsoft's "Jian Xia Qing Yuan" capturing 70% market share in Vietnam and the emergence of new IP carriers like web literature translation platforms and short dramas [5] Group 4: Key Factors for Successful IP Dissemination - Gong identified three core elements for successful IP dissemination: 1. Undergoing systematic cultural refinement to form a resonant value core [6] 2. Having a complete localized production system [6] 3. Achieving production capacity overflow to support global outreach [6] - He highlighted two parallel paths for Chinese IP going global: targeting mainstream global markets with games and focusing on niche segments with trendy toys and web literature [6] Group 5: Future Outlook - Gong concluded that Kingsoft, as a technology enterprise growing alongside China's reform and opening-up, has significant potential for cross-industry integration in its office, gaming, and cloud services [6] - He expressed confidence that Chinese companies can create globally influential IP brands, facilitating cultural exchange between East and West [6]

Core Points - The article discusses the recent compliance guidance issued by the State Administration for Market Regulation in Shenzhen, focusing on unfair competition in the mobile phone and application platform sectors, highlighting the prevalence of irrational competition and the detrimental practices employed by some companies [1][4] Group 1: Unfair Competition Practices - The article identifies three main unfair competition practices in the mobile industry, referred to as the "three sins": traffic hijacking, forced redirection, and malicious incompatibility [1][8] - Traffic hijacking involves companies using technical means to mislead users into downloading apps from their own stores instead of third-party platforms, thereby infringing on user choice and harming competitors [2][6] - Forced redirection is characterized by misleading prompts and technical barriers that prevent users from accessing desired applications, which has been reported as a significant pain point for users [3][8] Group 2: Impact on Users and Market - These unfair practices not only disrupt user experience but also undermine the competitive order in the market, leading to long-term harm to the innovation vitality of the digital economy [4][11] - Users have reported experiencing complex and frustrating download processes due to misleading compatibility warnings and forced redirections, which ultimately benefit the manufacturers' own app stores [2][3] Group 3: Legal and Regulatory Responses - Legal experts indicate that these practices violate various laws, including the Anti-Unfair Competition Law and the Consumer Rights Protection Law, which protect user rights and fair competition [8][9] - The article mentions ongoing efforts by regulatory bodies to establish clearer standards and guidelines to combat these unfair practices, including the introduction of safety requirements for "shake to trigger" advertisements [10][11] Group 4: Industry Reactions and Future Directions - The article notes that major smartphone manufacturers and e-commerce platforms have not yet responded to inquiries regarding compliance with the new guidelines [9] - There is a call for a multi-faceted governance approach involving government enforcement, industry self-regulation, and public awareness to effectively address and mitigate unfair competition behaviors [11]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of China International reports that Kingsoft Corporation's Q3 performance fell short of expectations, with revenue down 8% to 11% and net profit down 26% to 55% due to weak gaming business, although office software revenue grew by 26% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Kingsoft's Q3 revenue is expected to be 8% to 11% lower than forecast [1] - Net profit is projected to be 26% to 55% below expectations [1] - Office software business revenue increased by 26%, partially offsetting the negative impact from the gaming sector [1] Group 2: Investment Rating and Price Target - Bank of China International upgraded Kingsoft's rating from "Hold" to "Buy" [1] - The target price was adjusted from HKD 41.7 to HKD 40 [1] - The stock's risk-reward ratio has become more attractive after a nine-month adjustment period [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - Despite the normalization of Kingsoft's gaming business, the product line remains weak [1] - The stock has declined by 27% since mid-2025, which is believed to have reflected the downside risks [1] - The market may be overlooking the potential growth momentum in office software and cloud services [1]