作者 | 蔡芳芳、褚杏娟 本文为《2025 年度盘点与趋势洞察》系列内容之一，由 InfoQ 技术编辑组策划。本系列覆盖大模型、 Agent、具身智能、AI Native 开发范式、AI 工具链与开发、AI+ 传统行业等方向，通过长期跟踪、与业 内专家深度访谈等方式，对重点领域进行关键技术进展、核心事件和产业趋势的洞察盘点。内容将在 InfoQ 媒体矩阵陆续放出，欢迎大家持续关注。 这期间，我们采访了昆仑万维（维权）董事长兼 CEO 方汉，他结合昆仑万维这一年发展，分享了自己 的一些洞察：目前其已经验证了"技术 → 产品 → 商业化"的闭环是可复制的，不过整体行业仍然存 在"技术远超产品"的结构性错配，真正让普通用户产生强烈使用动机的 C 端应用仍然偏少。他指出了 四类容易被淘汰的公司，同时认为明年唯一的技术赛点是 Agent 是否能大规模自动化"可验证过程"。 下面是详细对话内容，以飨读者。 1 AI 泡沫、产品价值和生态 InfoQ：您眼中 2025 年科技圈的关键词？这一年的收获与遗憾？ 方汉： 有三个关键词：AI 泡沫（结构性泡沫）、可验证的产品价值、流程型生态。 具体说来，AI 泡沫不是风险，而是必 ...

Market Overview - U.S. private credit market risks are emerging, with significant exposure concentrated in large banks and insurance funds rather than smaller banks[6] - The U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace in two years in Q3 2025, with GDP growth reaching 4.3%, exceeding expectations of 3.3%[31] Stock Market Performance - A-shares experienced a slight increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,919 points, up 0.07%[15] - U.S. stock indices reached new highs, with the S&P 500 up 0.5% to 6,909.8 points and the Nasdaq up 0.6% to 23,561.8 points[9] Commodity and Currency Trends - Gold and silver prices reached record highs due to U.S. interest rate cut expectations and geopolitical risks[28] - The U.S. dollar index fell to its lowest level since early October, while the Chinese yuan approached the 7 yuan mark against the dollar[28] Fixed Income Market - U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply in the short term following strong GDP data, with the 2-year yield at 3.53%[31] - A $44 billion auction of 7-year Treasury bonds is scheduled, reflecting ongoing market adjustments[31] Sector Insights - The healthcare sector in Latin America showed strong performance, with the medical care sector rising by 2.48%[9] - The real estate sector in China is under focus, with government efforts to stabilize the market and support reasonable financing needs for real estate companies[31]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report suggests continuing to be patient and waiting for the stabilization of overseas markets. Although the macro - timing model's monthly score for December 2025 indicates a certain probability of adjustment in the Wind All - A Index, the adjustment space may be limited. In the whole month, the cost - effectiveness of the dividend sector may gradually weaken, while the technology growth sector may regain some attractiveness after the adjustment in November. More incremental funds still need time. The report is cautious about the micro - and small - cap direction in December. In the short - term, the equity market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range due to overseas market disturbances [23][24]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 A - share Market行情 Overview (2025.12.08 - 2025.12.12) - **Equity ETF Net Inflow Statistics**: The top three types of equity ETFs in terms of net inflow in the past five trading days are scale index ETFs (2.843 billion yuan), style index ETFs (86 million yuan), and cross - border industry index ETFs (32 million yuan). The top three products are A500ETF Huatai - Peregrine (1.319 billion yuan), Science and Technology Innovation Board 50ETF (1.155 billion yuan), and A500ETF Southern (1.123 billion yuan) [8][9]. - **Main Broad - based Indexes**: The top three broad - based indexes in terms of increase and decrease are the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 (1.50%), the Science and Technology Innovation Composite Index (0.26%), and the Science and Technology Innovation 100 (0.19%); the bottom three are the Wind Micro - cap Stock Daily Equal - weighted Index (- 5.75%), the Dividend Index (- 2.10%), and the CSI Dividend Index (- 1.82%) [13]. - **Style Indexes**: The top three style indexes in terms of increase and decrease are mid - cap growth (0.30%), China Securities Mid - cap (0.09%), and small - cap growth (0.02%); the bottom three are mid - cap value (- 1.61%), finance (style. CITIC) (- 1.47%), and small - cap value (- 1.46%) [15]. - **Shenwan Primary Industry Indexes**: The top three Shenwan primary industry indexes in terms of increase and decrease are national defense and military industry (1.73%), communication (1.41%), and public utilities (0.33%); the bottom three are real estate (- 3.10%), textile and clothing (- 2.91%), and petroleum and petrochemicals (- 2.70%) [19]. 3.2 A - share Market行情 Outlook (2025.12.15 - 2025.12.19) - **Macro Model Results of the Broad - based Index**: The low - frequency monthly macro - model score for the Wind All - A Index as of December 1, 2025, is - 2 points, indicating possible shock adjustment but with limited adjustment space. The high - frequency daily macro - model score turned negative this week, suggesting that the broad - based index may show a shock trend [30][31]. - **Technical Analysis Model Results of Major Indexes** - **Main Broad - based Indexes**: As of December 12, 2025, the top three in the risk - trend model's comprehensive score are the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 (90.69 points), the Science and Technology Innovation 100 (62.89 points), and the Science and Technology Innovation Composite Index (62.71 points); the bottom three are the Wind Micro - cap Stock Daily Equal - weighted Index (26.88 points), the Dividend Index (40.28 points), and the ChiNext Index (40.82 points). Historically, in December, the top three in average returns are the Shenzhen Dividend (4.71%), the SSE 50 (4.43%), and the CSI 300 (3.88%); the bottom three are the Science and Technology Innovation 100 (- 4.99%), the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 (- 4.65%), and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 (- 2.43%) [34][39]. - **Style Indexes**: As of December 12, 2025, the top three in the risk - trend model's comprehensive score are consumption (style. CITIC) (64.24 points), China Securities Small - cap (56.76 points), and China Securities Mid - cap (56.24 points); the bottom three are large - cap value (34.67 points), China Securities Large - cap (41.48 points), and small - cap value (41.69 points). Historically, in December, the top three in average returns are finance (style. CITIC) (4.16%), large - cap value (3.98%), and China Securities Large - cap (3.75%); the bottom three are small - cap growth (- 0.53%), small - cap value (0.07%), and mid - cap growth (0.36%) [43][49]. - **Shenwan Primary Industry Indexes**: As of December 12, 2025, the top three in the risk - trend model's comprehensive score are non - bank finance (77.49 points), medicine and biology (71.35 points), and automobile (71.08 points); the bottom three are comprehensive (27.56 points), banks (28.07 points), and household appliances (29.3 points). Historically, in December, the top three in average returns are food materials (3.44%), non - bank finance (3.37%), and banks (3.16%); the bottom three are environmental protection (- 0.22%), comprehensive (- 0.14%), and electronics (0.09%) [51][59]. 3.3 Fund Allocation Suggestion The report recommends an evenly - weighted and relatively aggressive ETF allocation strategy, considering that the subsequent market may be in a range - bound situation. It also lists recommended ETFs, including Chemical ETF, Hong Kong Stock Innovative Drug ETF, Satellite ETF, etc. [62][64][65]

甲骨文一份不及预期的财报给火热的人工智能（AI）相关股票交易带来重创，再度引发市场对其估值 过高及 AI 泡沫风险的担忧。 不过，投资者表示，对 AI 保持乐观的核心逻辑并未改变，多数人对判定 AI 板块见顶持谨慎态度。 今年以来，随着 AI 技术迅猛崛起并承诺将提升美国企业运营效率，投资者纷纷涌入 AI 相关企业。 但部分投资者认为 AI 相关股票已被高估。迈克尔・伯里等知名投资者一直持看空立场，将本轮 AI 热 潮比作上世纪 90 年代的互联网泡沫时期。即便如此，做空行为仍集中在中小型企业，针对头部 AI 企 业的大规模看空押注寥寥无几。 近期市场担忧的焦点集中在甲骨文身上。该公司为支撑雄心勃勃的 AI 投入大举举债，且在周三预警称 2026 财年资本支出将较 9 月预期高出 150 亿美元，受此影响，其股价周四一度暴跌 16.5%。当日收盘 后，博通又警告称，由于 AI 相关营收占比提升，公司利润率将面临下滑压力，这进一步挫伤市场情 绪，导致其盘后股价走低。 甲骨文股价大跌当日拖累了其他科技股走势，投资者担忧 AI 领域的巨额投入及回报周期不明确的问 题。但整体市场表现稳健，标普 500 指数周四小幅走 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's Q3 FY2026 performance is exceptional, with revenue reaching $57 billion, a 62% year-over-year increase, driven primarily by data center revenue of $51.2 billion, which grew 66% year-over-year and 25% quarter-over-quarter [1][2]. Financial Performance - Operating profit surged 65% to $36 billion, with an impressive operating margin of 63.1% [2]. - Despite strong earnings, the stock initially rose 5% post-announcement but later fell approximately 3% [3]. Market Sentiment and Concerns - CEO Jensen Huang highlighted a "bubble perception" issue, where any earnings miss is viewed as evidence of an AI bubble, even if results exceed expectations [5]. - The gross margin declined to 73.4% from 74.6% year-over-year, indicating a downward trend, although management expects it to stabilize around 70% [5]. - The projected earnings per share growth rate for FY2027 is about 59%, significantly lower than the triple-digit growth rates of the past two years [5]. Policy Changes and Market Opportunities - A new policy allows Nvidia to export advanced H200 AI chips to China, contingent on a 25% additional fee to the U.S. government, potentially unlocking a $50 billion market [5][6]. - This market entry could lead to revenue growth that exceeds current expectations, helping to alleviate concerns about slowing growth in the coming years [6]. Industry Dynamics and Risks - AI applications are still in their early stages, with significant technological transformations underway, including the shift from CPU to GPU computing and the rise of large language models [6]. - However, the commercialization of AI services has not kept pace with infrastructure investments, reminiscent of the 1999 internet bubble [7]. - Major AI service providers have yet to achieve profitability, with OpenAI and Anthropic projecting significant losses for years to come [7]. Customer Concentration and Competitive Landscape - Nvidia's revenue is highly concentrated, with four major customers accounting for 61% of revenue, raising significant risks if any major client reduces spending [7][8]. - Competition is intensifying, with AMD and Intel developing chips that could erode Nvidia's pricing power [8]. Growth Projections and Market Sentiment - Nvidia's revenue growth is projected to slow from 114% in FY2025 to 60% in FY2026, with further declines expected in FY2027 and FY2028 [9]. - Current market sentiment is overly optimistic, with 37 firms rating Nvidia as a "buy" and only one as "hold," indicating potential bubble conditions [9]. Conclusion on Valuation and Future Outlook - While Nvidia maintains a leading position and strong demand, its stock price reflects high expectations for flawless management execution [10]. - Analysts suggest a "hold" rating, as the risk-reward ratio is unfavorable at current valuations, despite potential for further price increases [11].

早盘提示 Morning session notice 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | 1、美国零售联合会（NRF）发布数据，从感恩节到"网络星期一"的五天内，约有 | | | | | 2.029 亿美国消费者进行了购物。这不仅超出 NRF 此前预测的 1.869 亿人次，更是 | | | | | 打破了该组织自 2017 年开始追踪该数据以来的所有记录。 | | | | | 2、在美国期货市场上，与"有担保隔夜融资利率"（SOFR）挂钩的短端利率曲线 | | | | | 结构需求正在增加，该利率与市场对美联储政策利率的预期高度相关。这些押注反 | | | | | 映出一种可能性：美联储主席任期于明年 5 月结束后，货币政策宽松步伐可能加快。 | | | | | 3、英伟达 CFO 表示，多年来数据中心的计算负载大部分由 CPU 完成，而这些工作 | | | | | 正在 ...

【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】 自5 月 23 日，英伟达发布 2024 财年第一季度业绩，营收与每股收益双双大幅超预期，便自 此迎来了其的 "iPhone 时刻"。 另一方面，超威半导体（Advanced Micro Devices，简称 AMD，纳斯达克代码：AMD）长期以来始终扮演 "配角"—— 上世纪受制于英特尔（Intel， INTC）等主导型半导体公司，近年来则被英伟达稳压一头。然而，在首席执行官苏姿丰 （Lisa Su）的带领下，AMD 已完成转型，即将与这只 "行业巨无霸" 正面交锋。 " A I 泡 沫 " 背 后 的 市 场 规 模 （ TA M ） 扩 张 任何使用过 Gemini、Chat GPT 或 Perplexity 的人，都能直观感受到人工智能的价值。但 更大的潜在市场（TAM）在于企业客户：摩根士丹利的一项研究显示，企业采用人工智能技术 有望削减约 38 万亿美元的成本。有句谚语说得好："若你不在餐桌上，就会成为盘中餐"—— 在人工智能时代，许多工作岗位确实面临被替代的风险。 根据 Precedence Research 的数据，全球 AI 芯片市场规模目前为 945 亿 ...

Economic Growth and Consumer Spending - The IMF predicts a global economic growth rate of 3.2% for 2025, which is similar to last year's performance, supported by strong consumer spending in the U.S. [1] - In Q2 2025, U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased by 2.5%, indicating that consumers are still willing to spend [1]. Impact of Tariffs and Corporate Performance - PCE is expected to decline to 2% in Q3 and further to 1.5% in Q4, with the negative effects of tariffs starting to manifest, particularly impacting high-end manufacturing in Europe [3]. - Companies like LVMH reported an 8% revenue drop, and Porsche's operating profit plummeted by 99%, attributed to the adverse effects of U.S. tariffs [3]. Technology Sector and AI Investment - The five major U.S. tech companies (Meta, Google, Oracle, Microsoft, Amazon) are projected to increase their capital expenditures by 30% annually by 2027, highlighting the significant role of AI in driving economic growth [3]. - Alibaba's AI-related revenue has seen triple-digit growth for seven consecutive quarters, with Alibaba Cloud's growth reaching 18% [5]. Global Debt and Economic Risks - Global debt is expected to exceed $337.7 trillion by 2025, with an increase of $21 trillion in the first half of the year, raising concerns about the sustainability of this debt burden [8]. - Many European countries are facing bankruptcy risks, indicating a precarious economic situation [8]. Structural Changes in Global Trade - The world is experiencing a "re-globalization" trend, moving away from "de-globalization," with countries seeking diversified trade partners and reshaping global supply chains [9]. - Tariff policies under the Trump administration have created a more complex global trade environment, with varying rates for allies and other nations [12]. Monetary Policy and Market Sentiment - The Federal Reserve's independence is crucial for maintaining stability in U.S. debt rates and the dollar, with potential fluctuations expected in the market [14]. - Investors are currently wary of the dollar, but a rebound is anticipated, contingent on the Fed's ability to maintain its policy independence [14]. Economic Challenges Ahead - The global economy is facing a slowdown, with high debt levels and reliance on stimulus measures creating a vicious cycle [16]. - Structural inflation persists, making it difficult for governments, businesses, and consumers to navigate a high-interest, high-debt environment [18].

Group 1 - The recent pullback in tech stocks has cooled the AI frenzy in the U.S. stock market, raising concerns about an "AI bubble" as Nvidia's market cap surpasses the combined total of the top 20 European companies and the Shiller P/E ratio approaches levels seen during the 2000 internet bubble [1][3] - The current market structure shows extreme concentration, with eight out of the top ten U.S. companies being AI tech stocks, compared to only four during the peak of the 1999 internet bubble, leading to significant index weight contributions from these companies [3] - Historical data indicates that when the Shiller P/E ratio exceeds 35, the S&P 500 has negative returns over the next 1 to 10 years, prompting notable investors like Michael Burry to short Nvidia and SoftBank to cash out $5.83 billion in Nvidia stock [3] Group 2 - Tech giants are engaged in a capital expenditure race to dominate the AI sector, with Microsoft increasing its Q3 capital spending to $34.9 billion (up 74% year-over-year) and Meta raising its annual spending forecast to $70-72 billion [4] - There is a growing imbalance between investment and returns, as evidenced by Meta's 26% revenue growth alongside an 83% drop in net profit, while only a few companies like Nvidia and Microsoft maintain high growth [4] - The re-emergence of leveraged strategies, such as the securitization of long-term data center leases, poses risks reminiscent of the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, especially given the high capital density required for GPU deployment [4] Group 3 - Concerns about the long-term growth potential of AI are highlighted by a June paper from the Santa Fe Institute, which points to performance bottlenecks in large language models, leading to a divergence in performance among tech stocks [6] - While companies like Alphabet and Nvidia report strong earnings, others like Meta and Tesla show signs of growth fatigue, indicating that AI benefits are concentrated among a few firms with core technologies [6] - Despite the challenges, the overall profitability of tech stocks remains stronger than during the internet bubble, with companies like Microsoft and Google having sufficient cash flow to support R&D investments, and SoftBank's reinvestment in OpenAI signaling confidence in AI's long-term value [6]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's Q3 FY2026 earnings report showcased strong AI demand, with a record revenue increase of $10 billion quarter-over-quarter, indicating that the AI competition is intensifying despite market concerns about an AI bubble [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Nvidia reported total revenue of $57 billion for Q3, representing a year-over-year growth of 62%, significantly exceeding Wall Street expectations and the company's prior guidance [2]. - The quarter's revenue increase of approximately $10 billion is more than double the total revenue of AMD's data center segment for Q3, which was $4.3 billion [2]. - The GAAP gross margin reached 73.4%, while the non-GAAP gross margin was 73.6%, both surpassing previous guidance, attributed to the increased share of data center business [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Growth Prospects - Nvidia's forward P/E ratio is approximately 38 times, which analysts consider attractive, especially with Q4 revenue guidance of $65 billion, indicating an $8 billion quarter-over-quarter increase [1][7]. - The company has locked in $500 billion in revenue from its Blackwell and Rubin series from early 2025 to the end of 2026, indicating strong future growth potential [5]. - Concerns about an AI bubble were addressed by CEO Jensen Huang, who emphasized the ongoing growth cycle and the significant revenue increases driven by AI applications, such as Meta's GEM model [3]. Group 3: Inventory and Supply Chain - Q3 inventory increased by 32% quarter-over-quarter, and supply commitments rose by 63%, reflecting the company's preparation for future growth, particularly with the upcoming launch of the Rubin GPU [4][5]. - The increase in inventory is seen as a strategic move to mitigate risks associated with the Rubin GPU launch, ensuring adequate supply to meet anticipated demand [5]. Group 4: Competitive Positioning - Nvidia's valuation remains attractive compared to competitors, with its forward P/E ratio being half that of AMD's [7]. - The stock price is currently supported at the $180 level, with a potential drop to $150 representing a forward P/E of 32 times, which analysts view as a compelling buying opportunity [7]. Group 5: Market Concerns - Nvidia's GPU revenue from the Chinese data center market was only $50 million in Q3, aligning with expectations that significant orders would not materialize in this quarter [6]. - The company's stock performance is influenced by broader market trends, with analysts noting that macroeconomic pressures could lead to a decline below current support levels [7][8].