Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report suggests continuing to be patient and waiting for the stabilization of overseas markets. Although the macro - timing model's monthly score for December 2025 indicates a certain probability of adjustment in the Wind All - A Index, the adjustment space may be limited. In the whole month, the cost - effectiveness of the dividend sector may gradually weaken, while the technology growth sector may regain some attractiveness after the adjustment in November. More incremental funds still need time. The report is cautious about the micro - and small - cap direction in December. In the short - term, the equity market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range due to overseas market disturbances [23][24]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 A - share Market行情 Overview (2025.12.08 - 2025.12.12) - **Equity ETF Net Inflow Statistics**: The top three types of equity ETFs in terms of net inflow in the past five trading days are scale index ETFs (2.843 billion yuan), style index ETFs (86 million yuan), and cross - border industry index ETFs (32 million yuan). The top three products are A500ETF Huatai - Peregrine (1.319 billion yuan), Science and Technology Innovation Board 50ETF (1.155 billion yuan), and A500ETF Southern (1.123 billion yuan) [8][9]. - **Main Broad - based Indexes**: The top three broad - based indexes in terms of increase and decrease are the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 (1.50%), the Science and Technology Innovation Composite Index (0.26%), and the Science and Technology Innovation 100 (0.19%); the bottom three are the Wind Micro - cap Stock Daily Equal - weighted Index (- 5.75%), the Dividend Index (- 2.10%), and the CSI Dividend Index (- 1.82%) [13]. - **Style Indexes**: The top three style indexes in terms of increase and decrease are mid - cap growth (0.30%), China Securities Mid - cap (0.09%), and small - cap growth (0.02%); the bottom three are mid - cap value (- 1.61%), finance (style. CITIC) (- 1.47%), and small - cap value (- 1.46%) [15]. - **Shenwan Primary Industry Indexes**: The top three Shenwan primary industry indexes in terms of increase and decrease are national defense and military industry (1.73%), communication (1.41%), and public utilities (0.33%); the bottom three are real estate (- 3.10%), textile and clothing (- 2.91%), and petroleum and petrochemicals (- 2.70%) [19]. 3.2 A - share Market行情 Outlook (2025.12.15 - 2025.12.19) - **Macro Model Results of the Broad - based Index**: The low - frequency monthly macro - model score for the Wind All - A Index as of December 1, 2025, is - 2 points, indicating possible shock adjustment but with limited adjustment space. The high - frequency daily macro - model score turned negative this week, suggesting that the broad - based index may show a shock trend [30][31]. - **Technical Analysis Model Results of Major Indexes** - **Main Broad - based Indexes**: As of December 12, 2025, the top three in the risk - trend model's comprehensive score are the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 (90.69 points), the Science and Technology Innovation 100 (62.89 points), and the Science and Technology Innovation Composite Index (62.71 points); the bottom three are the Wind Micro - cap Stock Daily Equal - weighted Index (26.88 points), the Dividend Index (40.28 points), and the ChiNext Index (40.82 points). Historically, in December, the top three in average returns are the Shenzhen Dividend (4.71%), the SSE 50 (4.43%), and the CSI 300 (3.88%); the bottom three are the Science and Technology Innovation 100 (- 4.99%), the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 (- 4.65%), and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 (- 2.43%) [34][39]. - **Style Indexes**: As of December 12, 2025, the top three in the risk - trend model's comprehensive score are consumption (style. CITIC) (64.24 points), China Securities Small - cap (56.76 points), and China Securities Mid - cap (56.24 points); the bottom three are large - cap value (34.67 points), China Securities Large - cap (41.48 points), and small - cap value (41.69 points). Historically, in December, the top three in average returns are finance (style. CITIC) (4.16%), large - cap value (3.98%), and China Securities Large - cap (3.75%); the bottom three are small - cap growth (- 0.53%), small - cap value (0.07%), and mid - cap growth (0.36%) [43][49]. - **Shenwan Primary Industry Indexes**: As of December 12, 2025, the top three in the risk - trend model's comprehensive score are non - bank finance (77.49 points), medicine and biology (71.35 points), and automobile (71.08 points); the bottom three are comprehensive (27.56 points), banks (28.07 points), and household appliances (29.3 points). Historically, in December, the top three in average returns are food materials (3.44%), non - bank finance (3.37%), and banks (3.16%); the bottom three are environmental protection (- 0.22%), comprehensive (- 0.14%), and electronics (0.09%) [51][59]. 3.3 Fund Allocation Suggestion The report recommends an evenly - weighted and relatively aggressive ETF allocation strategy, considering that the subsequent market may be in a range - bound situation. It also lists recommended ETFs, including Chemical ETF, Hong Kong Stock Innovative Drug ETF, Satellite ETF, etc. [62][64][65]

甲骨文一份不及预期的财报给火热的人工智能（AI）相关股票交易带来重创，再度引发市场对其估值 过高及 AI 泡沫风险的担忧。 不过，投资者表示，对 AI 保持乐观的核心逻辑并未改变，多数人对判定 AI 板块见顶持谨慎态度。 今年以来，随着 AI 技术迅猛崛起并承诺将提升美国企业运营效率，投资者纷纷涌入 AI 相关企业。 但部分投资者认为 AI 相关股票已被高估。迈克尔・伯里等知名投资者一直持看空立场，将本轮 AI 热 潮比作上世纪 90 年代的互联网泡沫时期。即便如此，做空行为仍集中在中小型企业，针对头部 AI 企 业的大规模看空押注寥寥无几。 近期市场担忧的焦点集中在甲骨文身上。该公司为支撑雄心勃勃的 AI 投入大举举债，且在周三预警称 2026 财年资本支出将较 9 月预期高出 150 亿美元，受此影响，其股价周四一度暴跌 16.5%。当日收盘 后，博通又警告称，由于 AI 相关营收占比提升，公司利润率将面临下滑压力，这进一步挫伤市场情 绪，导致其盘后股价走低。 甲骨文股价大跌当日拖累了其他科技股走势，投资者担忧 AI 领域的巨额投入及回报周期不明确的问 题。但整体市场表现稳健，标普 500 指数周四小幅走 ...

营业利润同比激增 65% 至 360 亿美元，营业利润率高达 63.1%，表现极为出色。 业绩公布后，该公司在盘后交易中上涨 5%，随后却大幅回落，最终收跌约 3%。 【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】 首席执行官黄仁勋表示，公司面临着他所说的 "泡沫认知" 问题： 市场将任何盈利不及预期的情况视为 AI 泡沫的证据，即便业绩超预期，也会被认为是公司在 助推泡沫膨胀。 事实上，这份财报存在一些后期才被市场意识到的隐忧。2026 财年第三季度，英伟达的毛利 率降至 73.4%，低于上年同期的 74.6%。尽管仍处于极高水平，但已出现下滑趋势，不过管 理层表示未来毛利率将维持在 70% 左右的中高位区间。 每股收益依旧亮眼，但增速正在放缓。公司前瞻指引显示，2027 财年每股收益同比增长率约 为 59%，远低于过去两年的三位数增速。 英伟达公司（NVDA） 2026 财年第三季度（截至 2025 年 10 月 26 日）业绩堪称卓越。 季度营收达 570 亿美元，同比增长 62%；数据中心建设相关收入成为利润核心来源，达 512 亿美元，同比增长 66%，环比增长 25%。 英伟达提交给美国证券交易委员会（SEC ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | 1、美国零售联合会（NRF）发布数据，从感恩节到"网络星期一"的五天内，约有 | | | | | 2.029 亿美国消费者进行了购物。这不仅超出 NRF 此前预测的 1.869 亿人次，更是 | | | | | 打破了该组织自 2017 年开始追踪该数据以来的所有记录。 | | | | | 2、在美国期货市场上，与"有担保隔夜融资利率"（SOFR）挂钩的短端利率曲线 | | | | | 结构需求正在增加，该利率与市场对美联储政策利率的预期高度相关。这些押注反 | | | | | 映出一种可能性：美联储主席任期于明年 5 月结束后，货币政策宽松步伐可能加快。 | | | | | 3、英伟达 CFO 表示，多年来数据中心的计算负载大部分由 CPU 完成，而这些工作 | | | | | 正在 ...

【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】 自5 月 23 日，英伟达发布 2024 财年第一季度业绩，营收与每股收益双双大幅超预期，便自 此迎来了其的 "iPhone 时刻"。 另一方面，超威半导体（Advanced Micro Devices，简称 AMD，纳斯达克代码：AMD）长期以来始终扮演 "配角"—— 上世纪受制于英特尔（Intel， INTC）等主导型半导体公司，近年来则被英伟达稳压一头。然而，在首席执行官苏姿丰 （Lisa Su）的带领下，AMD 已完成转型，即将与这只 "行业巨无霸" 正面交锋。 " A I 泡 沫 " 背 后 的 市 场 规 模 （ TA M ） 扩 张 任何使用过 Gemini、Chat GPT 或 Perplexity 的人，都能直观感受到人工智能的价值。但 更大的潜在市场（TAM）在于企业客户：摩根士丹利的一项研究显示，企业采用人工智能技术 有望削减约 38 万亿美元的成本。有句谚语说得好："若你不在餐桌上，就会成为盘中餐"—— 在人工智能时代，许多工作岗位确实面临被替代的风险。 根据 Precedence Research 的数据，全球 AI 芯片市场规模目前为 945 亿 ...

一、三大靠山撑住全球经济门面 咱们先摊开数据说话：IMF 预测 2025 年全球经济增速能到 3.2%，跟去年差不多持平。要知道上半年遭 遇了史无前例的关税冲击，能保住这份成绩单，全靠三个核心靠山在撑着。 说句实在话，美国老百姓的消费算是立下了汗马功劳。2025 年第二季度美国个人消费支出（PCE）环 比涨了 2.5%，简单说就是大家还在敢花钱、愿花钱。 关键是美国企业暂时扛下了关税成本，没直接把涨价压力转嫁给消费者，这才给全球贸易托了底。 但好景肯定长不了，第三季度 PCE 已经掉到 2%，第四季度预计还要降到 1.5%。更让人揪心的是，关 税的滞后效应已经开始显灵，欧洲高端制造先顶不住了。 法国的路威酩轩前三季度收入跌了 8%，保时捷的营业利润更是暴跌 99%，说白了都是美国关税惹的 祸，产品卖不动、利润被压缩，日子难过得很。 AI 这波科技浪潮的推动力可真不能小瞧。美国那五大科技巨头（Meta、Google、甲骨文、微软、亚马 逊），预计到 2027 年每年的资本支出都能涨 30%。 这些钱可不是白花的，不管是投到美国的实体经济里，还是通过股市的财富效应拉动经济，都能起到实 打实的推动作用。 咱们中国市 ...

Group 1 - The recent pullback in tech stocks has cooled the AI frenzy in the U.S. stock market, raising concerns about an "AI bubble" as Nvidia's market cap surpasses the combined total of the top 20 European companies and the Shiller P/E ratio approaches levels seen during the 2000 internet bubble [1][3] - The current market structure shows extreme concentration, with eight out of the top ten U.S. companies being AI tech stocks, compared to only four during the peak of the 1999 internet bubble, leading to significant index weight contributions from these companies [3] - Historical data indicates that when the Shiller P/E ratio exceeds 35, the S&P 500 has negative returns over the next 1 to 10 years, prompting notable investors like Michael Burry to short Nvidia and SoftBank to cash out $5.83 billion in Nvidia stock [3] Group 2 - Tech giants are engaged in a capital expenditure race to dominate the AI sector, with Microsoft increasing its Q3 capital spending to $34.9 billion (up 74% year-over-year) and Meta raising its annual spending forecast to $70-72 billion [4] - There is a growing imbalance between investment and returns, as evidenced by Meta's 26% revenue growth alongside an 83% drop in net profit, while only a few companies like Nvidia and Microsoft maintain high growth [4] - The re-emergence of leveraged strategies, such as the securitization of long-term data center leases, poses risks reminiscent of the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, especially given the high capital density required for GPU deployment [4] Group 3 - Concerns about the long-term growth potential of AI are highlighted by a June paper from the Santa Fe Institute, which points to performance bottlenecks in large language models, leading to a divergence in performance among tech stocks [6] - While companies like Alphabet and Nvidia report strong earnings, others like Meta and Tesla show signs of growth fatigue, indicating that AI benefits are concentrated among a few firms with core technologies [6] - Despite the challenges, the overall profitability of tech stocks remains stronger than during the internet bubble, with companies like Microsoft and Google having sufficient cash flow to support R&D investments, and SoftBank's reinvestment in OpenAI signaling confidence in AI's long-term value [6]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's Q3 FY2026 earnings report showcased strong AI demand, with a record revenue increase of $10 billion quarter-over-quarter, indicating that the AI competition is intensifying despite market concerns about an AI bubble [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Nvidia reported total revenue of $57 billion for Q3, representing a year-over-year growth of 62%, significantly exceeding Wall Street expectations and the company's prior guidance [2]. - The quarter's revenue increase of approximately $10 billion is more than double the total revenue of AMD's data center segment for Q3, which was $4.3 billion [2]. - The GAAP gross margin reached 73.4%, while the non-GAAP gross margin was 73.6%, both surpassing previous guidance, attributed to the increased share of data center business [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Growth Prospects - Nvidia's forward P/E ratio is approximately 38 times, which analysts consider attractive, especially with Q4 revenue guidance of $65 billion, indicating an $8 billion quarter-over-quarter increase [1][7]. - The company has locked in $500 billion in revenue from its Blackwell and Rubin series from early 2025 to the end of 2026, indicating strong future growth potential [5]. - Concerns about an AI bubble were addressed by CEO Jensen Huang, who emphasized the ongoing growth cycle and the significant revenue increases driven by AI applications, such as Meta's GEM model [3]. Group 3: Inventory and Supply Chain - Q3 inventory increased by 32% quarter-over-quarter, and supply commitments rose by 63%, reflecting the company's preparation for future growth, particularly with the upcoming launch of the Rubin GPU [4][5]. - The increase in inventory is seen as a strategic move to mitigate risks associated with the Rubin GPU launch, ensuring adequate supply to meet anticipated demand [5]. Group 4: Competitive Positioning - Nvidia's valuation remains attractive compared to competitors, with its forward P/E ratio being half that of AMD's [7]. - The stock price is currently supported at the $180 level, with a potential drop to $150 representing a forward P/E of 32 times, which analysts view as a compelling buying opportunity [7]. Group 5: Market Concerns - Nvidia's GPU revenue from the Chinese data center market was only $50 million in Q3, aligning with expectations that significant orders would not materialize in this quarter [6]. - The company's stock performance is influenced by broader market trends, with analysts noting that macroeconomic pressures could lead to a decline below current support levels [7][8].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Company: NVIDIA Financial Performance - NVIDIA's Q3 revenue increased by 205% year-over-year, reaching $57 billion, with a gross margin of 73.6% [1][2] - For Q4, the company expects a revenue midpoint of $65 billion, representing a 65% year-over-year growth, with an adjusted gross margin target of 75% [1][2] - NVIDIA anticipates maintaining a gross margin in the mid-70% range for fiscal year 2026, alleviating market concerns regarding potential impacts from storage price increases and ASIC advancements [1][2] Supply Chain and Manufacturing - NVIDIA is enhancing supply chain resilience by collaborating with TSMC to produce Blackwell wafers in the U.S. and expanding manufacturing capabilities with partners like Foxconn and Anker [1][4] - The company aims to ship 20 million units of Blackwell and Ruby series by 2026, targeting $50 billion in revenue, with potential upward adjustments [1][4] - New procurement agreements from Saudi Arabia are valued at approximately $10 billion, and additional collaboration with Anthropic is expected to generate $30-35 billion in demand [1][4] AI Market and Investment Strategy - NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang addressed concerns about AI bubbles and GPU depreciation cycles, asserting that a 5-6 year depreciation period for GPUs is reasonable and can extend with increased inference workloads [1][5] - The company maintains a proactive investment strategy in AI, ensuring that investments are contingent on the successful development of AI systems by partners [1][7] Market Demand and Supply Issues - NVIDIA faces a strong demand for GPUs, with many older models still in high demand, indicating a robust market environment [1][8] - Corwave reported a 95% renewal rate for H100 contracts, reflecting strong market demand for NVIDIA's products [1][8] Company: Google Product Launch and Market Impact - Google's release of the Gemini 3 model has positively impacted its stock and that of other cloud providers, indicating overall growth in the AI market [1][3][6] - Gemini 3 Pro achieved top scores in 19 out of 20 industry benchmarks, showcasing its superior performance in inference, multi-modal tasks, and programming capabilities [1][9] Industry Dynamics - The launch of Gemini 3 demonstrates the effectiveness of pre-training scaling laws and intensifies competition among major players in multi-modal technology [1][10] - Google's high pricing strategy for its top-tier models suggests that premium models can command higher fees, creating unique barriers and driving increased investment in computational power across the industry [1][10] Market Sentiment - Discussions around AI bubble risks have eased, with NVIDIA's financial results and Google's model launch contributing to a positive outlook for AI technology and its commercial applications [1][11][12]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **U.S. Stock Market**: Recent volatility influenced by mixed non-farm employment data, fluctuating confidence in tech and AI stocks, and uncertainty in Federal Reserve monetary policy [1][3][4] - **Hong Kong Stock Market**: Continued decline due to domestic economic conditions and overseas risk factors, with a potential for slight rebound but requiring more fundamental support for a trend reversal [1][6][11] - **Japanese Bond Market**: Rapid increase in long-term bond yields and depreciation of the yen raise concerns about carry trade unwinding, potentially affecting global capital flows [1][7][14] Core Insights and Arguments - **U.S. Economic Indicators**: Non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations with an increase of 119,000 jobs, but the unemployment rate rose, leading to mixed signals about the economy [4][5] - **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook**: Increased probability of a rate cut in December, rising from 30% to over 60%, which could alleviate liquidity pressures and boost the stock market [5][9][16] - **AI Industry Focus**: The AI sector remains a key area of interest, with potential IPOs like OpenAI expected to drive market sentiment. However, concerns about profitability and capital expenditures persist [4][13][16] Important but Overlooked Content - **Long-term Projections for China**: By 2026, China's economy is expected to undergo significant structural transformation, with policy guidance likely to enhance resilience compared to other countries [1][10] - **Market Sentiment on Hong Kong Stocks**: Current market adjustments viewed as healthy rather than panic-driven, with optimism for 2026 based on valuation and global comparisons [6][11][12] - **Risks from Japan's Economic Policies**: Discrepancies between aggressive fiscal policies and conservative monetary policies in Japan could lead to increased inflationary pressures and challenges for sustainable economic growth [14][17] Conclusion - The overall sentiment indicates cautious optimism for the U.S. and Hong Kong markets in the long term, contingent on monetary policy developments and economic fundamentals. The AI sector's trajectory will be critical in shaping market dynamics, while Japan's economic policies warrant close monitoring due to their potential global implications.