Core Viewpoint - The podcast "基会来了" discusses the future of new consumption in China, questioning whether it is a fleeting trend or a sustainable growth opportunity [4]. Group 1: New Consumption Trends - New consumption companies often start with high valuations due to uncertainty about their growth potential, but they may face significant price declines if they fail to establish a solid market presence [5]. - A systematic understanding of the industry’s business model is crucial, particularly the presence of scale effects, as industries without them tend to become increasingly fragmented [5]. - The long-term success of consumer goods relies heavily on brand strength, with high gross margins indicating strong pricing power [5]. Group 2: Understanding Consumer Behavior - The 80s generation fund managers can still effectively study the consumption patterns of younger generations by recognizing industry trends and conducting thorough research [7]. - Observing new trends and being open to understanding them is essential for investment research, even if the researcher is not part of the target consumer group [7]. - Engaging with industry leaders and analyzing market data can provide valuable insights into consumer preferences and market dynamics [9]. Group 3: Consumption Dynamics - Current consumer behavior reflects a generational shift, with younger consumers displaying confidence in their purchasing decisions, prioritizing product quality and value over brand prestige [10]. - Economic growth in consumption is fundamentally linked to rising household incomes, making income growth a prerequisite for sustained consumption growth [10]. Group 4: Competitive Advantage in Global Markets - Chinese consumer brands have shown significant competitive advantages in international markets, particularly in gaming, where they have adapted products to local cultures and achieved substantial success [13]. - The success of Chinese products abroad challenges the notion that cultural differences would hinder market acceptance, as many products have thrived in Western markets [16]. Group 5: Promising Consumption Segments - Key areas for future investment include international expansion of companies, modern consumer categories like self-care products, gaming, and the pet economy, as well as the technology and AI sectors [18].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the "old-for-new" subsidy has been steadily implemented, leading to a sustained high growth trend in the production and sales of new energy vehicles, with listed companies' net profit growth exceeding 30% [1] - The trend of upgrading home appliances to "smart" devices is evident, with both industry revenue and net profit growth surpassing 9% [1] - The acceleration of domestic substitution in the consumer electronics sector has resulted in a revenue growth of 24.82% for the industry [1] - Cultural consumption demand has been released, with representative industries such as gaming and film box office experiencing revenue growth, and net profit growth exceeding 70% [1] - The total logistics volume in society has steadily increased, with enhanced logistics activity among residents, leading to a 10% revenue growth for five listed companies in the express delivery sector [1] - New emotional consumption scenarios, such as the pet economy and IP economy, have ignited enthusiasm among the younger demographic, with related industry listed companies showing significant performance growth, with net profit increases of 40.29% and 54.90% respectively [1]

Group 1 - AIGO Holding Limited has submitted an IPO application to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, aiming to raise $10 million [1] - The company plans to issue 2 million shares at a price range of $4 to $6 per share, which would value the company at approximately $335 million based on the midpoint of the proposed price range [1] - The IPO will represent only 3.0% of the company's total outstanding shares [1] Group 2 - AIGO Holding, originally established in Spain, operates globally across Europe, Asia, North America, Latin America, and Africa [1] - The company generates revenue from approximately 40 countries and regions across four continents, with sales for the 12 months ending December 31, 2024, projected at $207 million [1] - AIGO Holding has three proprietary brands, with products primarily in the categories of lighting, electrical appliances, home appliances, and pet products [1] Group 3 - The company is headquartered in Fuzhou, China, and was founded in 2011 [1] - AIGO Holding plans to list on NASDAQ under the ticker symbol AIGO [1] - Eddid Securities and Futures is the sole bookrunner for this transaction [1]

Core Insights - A recent survey reveals the strong appeal and market potential of Hong Kong brands among mainland consumers, with 78% having purchased Hong Kong products online in the past year, particularly among younger demographics and high-consumption areas [1][3] Group 1: Consumer Behavior - Mainland consumers average 9.4 online purchases per month, with higher frequency in first-tier cities; women shop slightly more than men, and the 30-49 age group has the highest frequency at 11.2 purchases per month [3] - Comprehensive e-commerce platforms are the preferred choice for consumers, significantly outpacing live-streaming, short video, and group-buying platforms [3] - Consumers expect delivery within an average of 3.2 days after placing an order, indicating that fast delivery is a key competitive factor for e-commerce [3] Group 2: Product Preferences - Consumer electronics and appliances are the most popular product categories among mainland consumers, followed by luxury and fashion items [3] - Consumers purchasing Hong Kong products tend to spend more on children's products, pharmaceuticals, health products, and pet products compared to the overall average, presenting new market opportunities for Hong Kong businesses [3] Group 3: Market Insights - The survey, commissioned by the Hong Kong Trade Development Council, involved 2,200 middle-class or higher consumers from various mainland cities, providing valuable market insights and data support for Hong Kong businesses looking to expand in the mainland market [4] - The Chief Economist of the Hong Kong Trade Development Council highlighted that the preference for Hong Kong brands extends beyond traditional high-quality products to a more diversified range of consumer goods, offering broader market space and development potential for Hong Kong businesses [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call discusses the investment outlook for various sectors in China, particularly focusing on AI, technology, new energy, and the implications of macroeconomic policies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Investment Opportunities in H2 2025**: The domestic economy is expected to maintain a GDP growth rate above 5%, driven by strong export performance and advancements in AI and advanced manufacturing, which are seen as key to enhancing economic output and structural transformation [6][10][12]. 2. **AI Investment Outlook**: AI is viewed as a central theme in global technological innovation, with significant investments expected in AI hardware and applications. The domestic demand for AI is strong, and supply bottlenecks are gradually easing, indicating a positive trajectory for AI-related investments [20][21][22]. 3. **Technology Sector Growth**: The technology sector is anticipated to experience robust growth, particularly in semiconductors and advanced manufacturing. The potential for breakthroughs in these areas is expected to drive long-term growth and competitiveness [25][26]. 4. **New Energy and Environmental Policies**: The transition to new energy sources and the implementation of green policies are seen as critical for sustainable growth. The manufacturing sector is expected to benefit from technological upgrades and innovations aimed at reducing carbon emissions [28][36]. 5. **Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics**: There is a shift towards quality over price in consumer preferences, which is expected to influence various industries, including real estate and consumer goods. This "anti-involution" trend is likely to reshape market competition and drive companies to focus on quality and brand value [32][35][37]. 6. **Macroeconomic Policies and Global Context**: The call highlights the importance of macroeconomic policies in shaping investment landscapes, particularly in light of ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade dynamics. The focus is on maintaining economic stability and fostering innovation [10][17][18]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Long-term Economic Confidence**: Despite short-term challenges, there is a strong belief in the long-term potential of the Chinese economy, driven by technological advancements and structural reforms [7][13][14]. 2. **Sector-Specific Insights**: Different sectors are expected to recover at varying rates, with some industries like real estate facing more significant challenges than others. The recovery in corporate earnings is anticipated to be uneven, influenced by sector-specific dynamics [9][15][18]. 3. **Investment Strategy**: The emphasis on identifying and investing in companies with strong competitive advantages and sustainable business models is highlighted as a key strategy for navigating the current market environment [8][12][19]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the investment landscape and sectoral dynamics in China for the latter half of 2025.

Core Viewpoint - The company faces increased uncertainty in its transformation journey due to the debt crisis of its controlling shareholder and changes in the board of directors [1][3]. Debt Crisis - The controlling shareholder, Zhejiang Xiaobei Damei Holdings Co., applied for pre-restructuring due to liquidity issues and inability to repay debts, which was approved by the court [3][4]. - As of July 23, Xiaobei Damei holds 132.6 million shares of the company, accounting for 12.28% of total shares, with 98.85% of these shares pledged or frozen [3][4]. - The company claims that the pre-restructuring will not significantly impact its daily operations, asserting its independence in business and financial matters [3][4]. Performance Fluctuations - The company's revenue peaked at over 6 billion yuan in 2013 but has since declined, with 2024 revenue reported at 2.773 billion yuan, less than half of its peak [5]. - The company has experienced five years of negative net profit over the past decade, with the highest loss exceeding 1 billion yuan in 2017 [5][6]. - Frequent performance revisions have led to the company being labeled as "A-share face-changing king," with multiple corrections to earnings forecasts and financial reports since 2013 [6]. Transformation Challenges - The company attempted to expand its product positioning to "full lifecycle health management" but faced challenges shortly after this announcement [7]. - The controlling shareholder has been listed as a dishonest executor, and there have been non-operational fund occupations amounting to 47.85 million yuan that were returned within the same year [7]. - The company has diversified into adult milk powder and high-end products, but new business segments account for less than 10% of total revenue as of 2024 [8]. - Factors contributing to the difficulties in transformation include resource dispersion, insufficient investment in core business, and frequent management changes leading to a lack of coherent operational strategies [8].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of the pre-restructuring application by the controlling shareholder of Beingmate due to liquidity issues raises concerns about potential changes in company control and future development uncertainties [2][3][4]. Group 1: Company Situation - Beingmate's controlling shareholder, Zhejiang Xiaobei Demei Holdings, holds 12.28% of the company's shares, with 98.85% of these shares pledged or frozen [2]. - Despite the shareholder's financial troubles, Beingmate claims to have independent business operations and is currently functioning normally [2][4]. - The company has faced significant performance fluctuations in recent years, with a revenue of only 2.773 billion yuan in 2024, far below its historical peak of 6.1 billion yuan in 2013 [5][6]. Group 2: Industry Context - The infant formula market is experiencing increased concentration, with leading companies exerting pressure on Beingmate, which has struggled to maintain its market share [2][5]. - The market for infant formula is entering a phase of stock competition due to declining birth rates, leading to aggressive subsidy strategies from competitors like Feihe and Yili [7][8]. - Beingmate's attempts at diversification, including ventures into adult nutrition and pet food, have not yet yielded significant results, with new business contributing less than 10% of total revenue [6][7]. Group 3: Strategic Challenges - The company has faced management instability, with frequent changes in leadership affecting strategic coherence and execution [7]. - Beingmate's strategy of targeting low-profit margins to attract consumers may pose challenges in maintaining product quality and brand image [9]. - The company needs to focus on developing flagship products and enhancing market research to improve its competitive position [9].

Core Viewpoint - Oriental Selection (01797) has seen its stock price rise over 80% this month, with a current increase of 7.37% to HKD 21.85, and a trading volume of HKD 1.147 billion [1] Financial Performance - Daiwa reported that Oriental Selection's Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) for the first half of fiscal year 2025 is expected to reach RMB 4.8 billion, with the "With Hui Together" channel led by Dong Yuhui contributing a quarter of this total [1] - Following Dong Yuhui's departure, the GMV has rebounded due to the expansion of sales channels, and the gross margin for self-branded products has improved to a healthy level of 21%, up from 10% in the second half of 2024 [1] Operational Strategy - The company has been reducing its workforce since December last year and expanding its product offerings to include high-margin categories such as health supplements and pet products, which is expected to further improve profit margins in the second half of fiscal year 2025 [1] - Zheshang Securities noted that after two years of challenges, the company's operations are stabilizing, and GMV is expected to turn positive by June 2025 as the high base effect diminishes [1] Market Position - Oriental Selection continues to focus on developing its key products, with GMV stabilizing and profit margins recovering, indicating significant growth potential for self-operated products [1]

Core Viewpoint - Oriental Selection (01797) has seen a significant stock price increase of over 80% this month, with a current price of 21.85 HKD and a trading volume of 1.147 billion HKD [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - According to Daiwa, the Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) for Oriental Selection in the first half of the 2025 fiscal year is projected to be 4.8 billion RMB, with the "With Hui Together" channel led by Dong Yuhui contributing a quarter of this total [1] - Following Dong Yuhui's departure, the GMV has rebounded due to the expansion of sales channels, indicating a recovery in performance [1] - The gross margin for self-branded products in the first half of 2025 has improved to a healthy level of 21%, up from 10% in the second half of 2024, attributed to reduced discounts [1] Group 2: Operational Strategy - The company has been reducing its workforce since December of last year and expanding its product range to include high-margin categories such as health supplements and pet products, which is expected to further improve profit margins in the second half of 2025 [1] - Zheshang Securities believes that after two years of challenges, the company's operations are stabilizing, and the GMV is expected to turn positive by June 2025 as the high base effect diminishes [1] - Oriental Selection continues to focus on major products, with GMV stabilizing and profit margins recovering, indicating significant growth potential for self-operated products [1]

Core Viewpoint - Oriental Selection (01797) has seen a significant stock price increase of over 80% this month, with a current price of HKD 21.85 and a trading volume of HKD 1.147 billion [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Daiwa reported that Oriental Selection's Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) for the first half of the 2025 fiscal year is expected to be RMB 4.8 billion, with the "With Hui Together" channel led by Dong Yuhui contributing a quarter of this total [1] - Following Dong Yuhui's departure, the GMV has rebounded due to the expansion of sales channels, indicating a recovery in performance [1] - The gross margin for self-branded products has improved to a healthy level of 21% in the first half of 2025, up from 10% in the second half of 2024, attributed to reduced discounts [1] Group 2: Strategic Developments - The company has been reducing its workforce since December last year and expanding its product range to include high-margin categories such as health supplements and pet products, which is expected to further improve profit margins in the second half of 2025 [1] - Zheshang Securities noted that after two years of challenges, the company's operations are stabilizing, and GMV is expected to turn positive by June 2025 as the high base effect diminishes [1] - Oriental Selection continues to focus on developing major products, with GMV stabilizing and profit margins recovering, indicating significant growth potential for self-operated products [1]