作者：国开证券研究与发展部总经理李友军 二、资本市场在支持科技自立自强中仍存不足 科技创新内在的高风险、长周期与高度不确定性，要求金融体系在风险收益结构与资本定价机制上实现 精准适配。然而，我国长期存在的深层次结构性矛盾导致金融供给与创新需求错配，尤其是资本市场核 心功能未能充分发挥，制约了创新生态的良性发展。主要体现在以下几个方面：一是融资功能结构性失 衡。我国金融体系以风险偏好较低的间接融资为主，根据中国人民银行数据，从存量看，2025年10月末 非金融企业境内股票融资占社会融资规模的比重仅为2.77%，缺乏能够承担风险、愿意长期陪伴企业成 长的耐心资本，导致科创企业的资本金需求无法得到充分满足。二是价格发现功能部分失灵。由于对科 创企业的专业评估体系尚不成熟，尤其是对人力资本、知识产权等核心无形资产的估值定价体系尚不健 全，导致市场对科创企业真实价值的判断偏离，进而引发价值低估及融资困局。三是资源配置功能存在 失调。资本的短期逐利性与创新的长期战略性之间存在深层矛盾，在金融机构短期业绩考核机制助推 下，市场投机倾向被进一步强化，导致资本过度追逐商业模式创新等短期赛道，而对需要长期投入的基 础研究及关键核 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central economic work conference has outlined the overall requirements and policy direction for economic work in the coming year, emphasizing the importance of promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy [1]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Tools - The conference highlights the need for flexible and efficient use of various monetary policy tools to support economic growth and price stability [3]. - The expected adjustments in reserve requirement ratios (RRR) and interest rates are projected to be around 0.5 percentage points and 0.1 percentage points, respectively, indicating a moderate easing of monetary policy [3]. - The central bank is expected to utilize a diverse range of liquidity injection tools, including medium-term lending facilities (MLF) and reverse repos, to create a conducive liquidity environment [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Support for the Real Economy - The growth rate of social financing and money supply has consistently outpaced nominal economic growth, providing a foundation for stable growth in the coming year [2]. - Structural monetary policy tools will focus on expanding domestic demand, supporting technological innovation, and aiding small and micro enterprises, thereby addressing structural contradictions in the economy [4]. - The central bank aims to enhance the transmission mechanism of monetary policy by improving the efficiency of existing policies and addressing issues such as excessive competition in the financial sector [2][4]. Group 3: Coordination of Fiscal and Monetary Policies - Strengthening the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is essential to enhance policy effectiveness, particularly in areas such as loan interest subsidies and risk compensation [4]. - The central bank may further narrow the interest rate corridor and stabilize the yield curve of government bonds to improve the coordination and interlinkage of various interest rates [4].

Group 1 - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need to combine investment in physical assets and human capital, which is crucial for enhancing development momentum and expanding domestic demand [1] - China's economic growth model is undergoing a significant transformation, moving away from reliance on investment-driven growth, which is becoming unsustainable due to diminishing returns [1] - There is a global trend shifting from "capital-intensive" to "talent-intensive" industries, necessitating increased investment in human capital to drive innovation and demand [1] Group 2 - Investment in physical assets has historically led to effective accumulation of material capital, enhancing production capacity and social productivity, which in turn has driven economic growth [2] - There remains substantial potential for future investment in physical assets, particularly in key industries where investment is still insufficient and quality needs improvement [2] - The combination of investment in physical and human capital is essential for economic development, as material capital provides platforms for human capital to realize its value, while human capital enhances the effectiveness of material capital [3] Group 3 - The strategy involves expanding effective investment in the real economy and technological innovation, focusing on key technology gaps and optimizing existing assets [3] - There is a need to improve public services and increase government investment in areas such as education, healthcare, and vocational training to support human capital development [3] - The approach aims to ensure that investments in physical and human capital are mutually reinforcing, promoting a balanced accumulation of both types of capital [3]

2026年是"十五五"开局之年，近日召开的中央经济工作会议明确了关于明年经济工作的思路、任务、 政策等，一系列重点工作与"十五五"规划建议的部署一脉相承。为更好帮助网友理解会议精神，新华网梳 理了会议提出的部分关键提法，一起来学习。 为什么要全面实施"人工智能+"行动？ 这是推进人工智能与经济社会各行业各领域广泛深度融合、重塑生产生活范式、促进生产力革命性跃 迁和生产关系深层次变革的重大战略部署。 第一，人工智能是数字经济时代引领新一轮科技革命和产业变革的战略性技术。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:李童】 我国要在人工智能领域占得先机、赢得优势，就必须在基础理论、方法、工具等方面取得突破。 全面实施"人工智能+"行动，有利于发挥我国产业体系完备、市场规模巨大、应用场景丰富等优势， 以实际应用加速人工智能技术不断向上生长，形成以创新带应用、以应用促创新的良性循环。 第二，随着大模型训练成本持续降低，多模态融合技术不断优化，智能体和具身智能快速发展，人工 智能正从实验室走向生产生活，创造出大量新的发展机会。 全面实施"人工智能+"行动，是为了进一步强化人工智能技术开发的应用导向，积极培育人工智能创 新产品和服务，大力推进 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the necessity of integrating investments in material and human resources as a new development direction, correcting past investment models and ensuring a balanced approach to economic growth [1][5]. Investment Goals - Both investments in material and human resources aim to promote comprehensive human development, with material investment focusing on infrastructure and tangible assets, while human investment targets education, healthcare, and social welfare to enhance human capital [2][5]. Investment Carriers - Investments in human resources require material carriers, such as educational infrastructure, to support capacity building, indicating that both types of investment are interdependent [3][5]. Development Dynamics - The development of new productive forces, which aligns with modern development concepts, necessitates both solid material foundations and high-quality talent resources, highlighting the complementary relationship between investments in material and human resources [4][5]. Development Process and Functionality - Historically, China's economic growth relied on factor-driven and investment-driven models, but the shift towards high-quality development necessitates enhancing human capabilities to stimulate domestic demand and foster new growth drivers [5][6]. Systematic Approach - A systematic perspective is essential in integrating investments in material and human resources to create a powerful synergy for high-quality development, focusing on modern industrial systems and optimizing human capital investment structures [6][7]. Policy Coordination - Strengthening policy coordination is crucial for aligning human capital and material capital investments, ensuring comprehensive evaluation of major projects, and incorporating education and social welfare into performance assessments [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the importance of maintaining strategic determination and confidence in the face of complex economic challenges, highlighting the need for a unified approach to economic work under the leadership of the central government [3][5][8] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a year-on-year increase of 6.0% in industrial added value from January to November, indicating a stable economic performance [2] - The articles stress the significance of long-term structural changes over short-term data fluctuations, with a focus on high-quality development and the transition to an innovation-driven and green economy [4][6] Group 2 - The articles outline the necessity of recognizing and addressing current difficulties and challenges while maintaining a positive outlook on the potential for economic growth [5][6] - There is a call for a comprehensive understanding of economic work, emphasizing the need for collaboration between policy support and reform innovation to achieve sustainable development [7][9] - The importance of enhancing the macro policy consistency and effectiveness is highlighted, with a focus on creating a synergistic effect among various economic policies [9][10] Group 3 - The articles advocate for strengthening the party's leadership in economic work, which is seen as essential for navigating risks and challenges effectively [8][19] - There is a strong emphasis on creating a favorable environment for development, including political, talent, business, and public opinion environments, to boost market confidence and social vitality [15][16][18] - The need for a correct performance evaluation system that aligns with the principles of high-quality development is discussed, focusing on the importance of practical results over superficial achievements [12][14]

12月15日，国家统计局发布数据显示，1至11月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.0%。经济运行 延续总体平稳、稳中有进发展态势。图为12月15日拍摄的山东港口烟台港。该港作为"一带一路"倡议15个支 点港口之一和中国对非贸易第一港，成功构建通达几内亚、坦桑尼亚、南非等20余个国家和地区的中非件杂 货班轮航线网络。新华社发（孙文潭 摄） 岁序更替，华章日新。在"十四五"规划即将圆满收官、第二个百年奋斗目标新征程迈向纵深的关键节点，中 央经济工作会议胜利召开。习近平总书记发表重要讲话，全面总结2025年经济工作，深刻分析当前国内国际 经济形势，系统部署2026年经济工作，为我们做好当前和今后一个时期的经济工作提供了根本遵循。越是形 势复杂，越要校准行动坐标。面对风高浪急的外部环境和艰巨繁重的国内发展改革任务，必须将思想行动统 一到党中央的科学判断和决策部署上来，深刻领悟正确政绩观的丰富内涵，将"国之大者"转化为"行之实 者"，以高质量党建引领高质量发展，凝聚统一意志和强大合力，为"十五五"开局起步筑牢坚实基础，确保中 国经济巨轮在新的历史起点上阔步前行。 保持战略定力，在辩证看待"时与势"中坚定信心 察势者 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the necessity of integrating investments in physical assets and human capital as a new approach to economic work in the current context [1] Group 1: Investment Objectives - The ultimate goal of both investments in physical assets and human capital is to promote comprehensive human development [2] - Investment in physical assets focuses on building material foundations for economic and social development, including infrastructure, housing, machinery, and intangible assets like technology and intellectual property [2] - Investment in human capital targets the entire population and lifecycle, directing resources towards education, employment, healthcare, and social security to enhance human capabilities and maintain health [2] Group 2: Investment Vehicles - Both investments in physical assets and human capital require material carriers; for instance, educational investments include both operational costs and infrastructure development [3] - Investment in physical assets directly involves tangible asset investments, while also necessitating investments in human capital to ensure effective implementation [3] Group 3: Development Dynamics - The integration of investments in physical assets and human capital is essential for the development of new productive forces, which require both a solid material foundation and high-quality talent [4] - There is a need to balance investments in physical assets to improve production efficiency and investments in human capital to enhance labor quality [5] Group 4: Systematic Approach - A systematic view is necessary to address the significant changes in population structure and the transformation of development methods, ensuring that investments in physical assets and human capital are considered together [6] - The focus should be on building a modern industrial system, directing investments towards high-end, intelligent, and green initiatives while optimizing human capital investment structures [7] - Policies should be coordinated to integrate human capital and material capital investments, establishing a comprehensive evaluation system for major projects [7]

Market Performance - The A-share market showed strong performance on December 17, with all three major indices rising, including the Shenzhen Component Index up over 2% and the ChiNext Index up over 3% [1][2] - The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 1.83 trillion yuan, an increase of 863 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and STAR Market Index rose by 1.19%, 2.40%, 3.39%, and 2.47% respectively, while the North Shenzhen 50 Index fell by 0.04% [1] Sector Performance - Active sectors included optical modules, lithium mining, lithium battery electrolytes, and optical chips, while sectors like Hainan Free Trade Port and satellite internet saw adjustments [3] - Among the 31 primary industries, the communication, non-ferrous metals, and electronics sectors had the highest gains, increasing by 5.07%, 3.03%, and 2.48% respectively [3] - The non-bank financial sector saw significant gains in the afternoon, with Huatai Securities rising over 6% and China Pacific Insurance rising over 4% [3] Fund Flow and Sentiment - As of December 16, the A-share market's financing balance increased by over 310 billion yuan in December, indicating a positive fund flow [4][6] - On December 17, over 2,100 stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets experienced net inflows from main funds, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index seeing a net inflow of over 50 billion yuan [4][6] - The overall market sentiment is optimistic, with significant inflows into various sectors, particularly communication, non-ferrous metals, and electronics [5][6] Individual Stock Contributions - Major contributors to the Shenzhen Component Index included stocks like NewEase, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Ningde Times, which collectively contributed nearly 30% of the index's rise [2] - In the ChiNext Index, the same stocks contributed nearly 60% of the index's increase, highlighting their significant impact on market performance [2] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the A-share market is likely to see a cross-year rally as domestic and international policy directions become clearer [7][8] - The combination of a supportive domestic policy and a loose global liquidity environment is expected to create favorable conditions for risk assets [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the RMB against the USD is attributed to multiple internal and external factors, including expectations of a US interest rate cut and seasonal demand for currency exchange among export enterprises [2][3]. Group 1: Currency Exchange and Market Dynamics - Dongguan Xile Toy Co., Ltd. has reduced its USD holdings and is quickly converting USD to RMB after export transactions due to expectations of a weaker USD [2]. - On December 17, the RMB's central parity rate against the USD was reported at 7.0573, an increase of 29 basis points from the previous trading day [2]. - The RMB's onshore and offshore rates reached new highs since October 2024, with the onshore rate peaking at 7.0413 and the offshore rate at 7.03724 [2]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing RMB Strength - The market's anticipation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts has placed downward pressure on the USD index, providing support for non-USD currencies, including the RMB [3]. - Domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth are showing positive effects, enhancing confidence in Chinese assets and stabilizing cross-border capital flows [3]. - Seasonal increases in foreign trade enterprises' demand for currency exchange have also contributed to the short-term rise in RMB demand [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook on RMB Exchange Rate - Analysts predict that the RMB may continue to appreciate against the USD, with potential for the exchange rate to temporarily exceed 7 due to seasonal demand [4]. - By 2026, the RMB's exchange rate is expected to exhibit two-way fluctuations while maintaining overall stability, with a projected central rate increase of 2%-3% compared to 2025 [4]. - Companies are advised to adopt strategies that lock in exchange rates while allowing for potential gains from RMB appreciation and fluctuations [4].